Open 512: See Nine Plus Plus (Game Ovah)

[Titus]

I just don't see the likelihood of two town roleblockers. It's theoretically possible but unlikely. The odds of two roleblockers is (1- .95^7) times (1 - .95^6) or about .3 *.25 = 7.5 percent of games having two roleblockers. I just don't see that happening here. Once you get beyond two, the odds are astronomically abysmal.

[Titus]

Since we have to get to three roleblockers being rolled, the odds dip to below five percent that both Saki and Varsoon are telling the truth.

[Saki]

Since we have to get to three roleblockers being rolled, the odds dip to below five percent that both Saki and Varsoon are telling the truth.

your conclusion is...?

[Flench]

I'm gone for a day and there are 12 new pages, wtf is going on? Starting the long read.

[Saki]

I'm gone for a day and there are 12 new pages, wtf is going on? Starting the long read.

welcome back.
yer at L-1

[CherryDrPepper]

Do you guys realize that we've been dwelving into setup speculation more than in actual scum hunting?

-Sakura Hana

[Saki]

Yes that's why I posted 552

Titus is still scum

I just noticed that she keeps trying to get attention off her

[Does Bo Know]

Votecount 1.21

[L-5] Saki - Flench, Titus
[L-6] CherryDrPepper - Dyslexicon
[L-6] Titus - Saki
[L-6] jmo16mla - StubbsKVM
[L-6] Varsoon - jmo16mla

Not Voting: TunnelVision, Vote Me, CherryDrPepper, Paschendale, Glass, Varsoon, oriole

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Deadline is Friday, August 2nd, 2013 at 7:30 PM CST ((expired on 2013-08-02 19:30:00)).

---

[Titus]

Do you guys realize that we've been dwelving into setup speculation more than in actual scum hunting?

-Sakura Hana

We have indeed gotten distracted, if that's viewed as distraction. The slim likelihood of both Saki and Varsoon telling the truth is precisely what motivates me to want a lynch between the two of them.

@Saki, why did you lie to Flench?

[Titus]

Since we have to get to three roleblockers being rolled, the odds dip to below five percent that both Saki and Varsoon are telling the truth.

your conclusion is...?

One of you is almost certainly lying.

[Saki]

Do you guys realize that we've been dwelving into setup speculation more than in actual scum hunting?

-Sakura Hana

We have indeed gotten distracted, if that's viewed as distraction. The slim likelihood of both Saki and Varsoon telling the truth is precisely what motivates me to want a lynch between the two of them.

@Saki, why did you lie to Flench?

I can't look for reaction tells?

He's apparently the second scumread of CherryDP. I could've forced something out of him if it weren't for you meddling kids

P-EDIT
look a giant circle, titus

[Saki]

Taking my hands off my computer for an hour.

I prodded Flench 'cause I don't like him either for never moving his vote.

@Everyone

When you catch up please look at Titus/Varsoon/Saki(me) closely

[Saki]

Okay on my phone since I realized people are back

Everyone forget giant readslists that don't contain at least three sentences about me Titus Varsoon

Jmo stronger case on Var
Stubbs stronger case please
Sakura/DP still after Flench now that he's back

[Paschendale]

Not in this scenario. Someone wouldn't cc in order to attract a night kill. The confusion it would cause is too great.

No, but it certainly allows for the result that Varsoon is a roleblocker and Saki is a VT without invoking the improbability of rolling enough B's to have two roleblockers.

'Cause Varsoon genuinely believe's that I'm scum (and so do you). Sorry for intercepting the question.

Why even ask?

I kinda do, too. But I'm worried about our lurkers. I don't want to lynch anyone until we've heard more from them.

Apologize for faulty vote counts again. I must've gotten carried away with the whole roleblocker explanation and missed the vote.
~DBK

It's okay. We still like you.

Varsoon is probably town. Titus is definitely town. Saki might be town but certainly might be scum.

Everyone else needs to remind us that they're actually in this game.

[Titus]

@Paschendale, I asked Saki that question directly. Saki denied being a VT.

[TunnelVision]

Well hell. I've got all types of problems with this double claim going on, but let me backtrack a bit and start my sorting here:

I voted for Varsoon because I thought he was sketchy and I didn't like some of the things I saw/inferred, some tone, and the self-contradictions he was posting. I backed off of him because I THOUGHT we had a Mason contingency vouching for him:

This was my first "tip":

I'll be V/LA (just from now until tomorrow), but I will say that

I am probably never voting Varsoon ever.

Then I went back and overanalyzed this:

@TunnelVision: Your first block of text is why I find

meta

ineffective. Because I have a controlled variable that gives away my alignment, I can change it at any time. It's a

meta

way of me causing trouble for people who rely on the

meta

. You probably wouldn't get it, since it might be too

meta

for you.

And thought... Hmmm... He used the word META 4 times, does that mean we have a 4 man mason crew? Meta x 4. Terrible odds for it, but that's the funny thing about odds. It seemed strange that he posted like that.

Then I saw this:

TunnelV (Hydra: Definitely not enough. Holding back and

wtf is with the awful Varsoon vote?

Thought to myself... VoteMe plus Paschendale subtly hinting/vouching for him? Alright, maybe, read and see...

Then THIS:

Well, I noticed it awhile ago, and I felt the best play was to not say anything about it. Now that other players are bringing it up and looking my way, I'd like to toss suspicion away for sure. It's probably not what you're thinking though, that's a bit overt.

So I just assumed big Mason group and brought the "Hey, I get it" unvote:

Unvote

I smell what you're stepping in.

But, catching up and reading between the lines now from what has transpired since... it looks like I talked or snooped my way into a steaming pile of bullshit. So everybody in those quotes above, I'd love a damn explanation from:

VoteMe, why wouldn't you be voting for Varsoon ever?

Pasche, what was so awful about my Varsoon vote that you took the time to note it? (I know you're town, but you're like our guiding light so I paid special attention to that buried reference in your read list.)

Varsoon, were you just being a silly pain in the rear jerking around about your stupid self-appointed super meta tell variable that you control? (FYI, if you as a player control it, it can be manipulated as I stated when I initially started in on you.)

Also Varsoon, what the hell were you hinting at/talking about in 182

Also, Titus, what was this:

I think I get this and it tells me a lot about the setup if accurate. I doubt you would be so aggressive in advertising as scum buddies.

Why isn't Varsoon pushing Saki harder then? Also, we haven't been close to lynching Saki since he claimed.

What if they are both scum? Lynching either one lands the other one a spot as "confirmed town roleblocker." Ballsy, but possible. The personality of both seems either silly enough or subtly slick enough to give it a shot.

I REALLY don't like the Saki claim, begging for votes, the timing of it. I hate even more Varsoon's shenanigans. It seems pretty far fetched at this point, odds wise, that the game would be setup like this.

[Saki]

would reading me newbtown explain everything

[TunnelVision]

would reading me newbtown explain everything

Is this directed at me? If yes, read below:

No. Even a noob knows that scoring a power role doesn't mean you goad the population into putting you at L-1 just so you can tell everybody you got a power role and subsequently beg them to unvote. Maybe if you said you were new to "thinking" or to "using your brain." But I suspect you weren't born yesterday or that you didn't just fall off the turnip truck. WHY on D1 would you be DYING to reveal your sweet power role to everybody and make yourself a target? Please to be helping me understand the thought process behind the stunt you pulled?

If no:
Sorry. But I'd still like answers to the above. Thanks.

[Titus]

I was expecting the same thing you were. Varsoon was a mason or other PR. Vote Me was the other mason or he figured it out.

I don't like Saki's followup but I'd put Tunnel as squarely town.

Mod: Would an innocent child know who the hypothetical masons were?

[Saki]

first time playing pr ever

there was no way I was getting out of that mess with both Cherry and pasche voting for me (+that flench static vote)

i was going to get lynched since noone would've bothered to help me

claimed to attract scum and voila titus

[oriole]

Why isn't Varsoon pushing Saki harder then? Also, we haven't been close to lynching Saki since he claimed.

What if they are both scum? Lynching either one lands the other one a spot as "confirmed town roleblocker." Ballsy, but possible. The personality of both seems either silly enough or subtly slick enough to give it a shot.

Sure it's possible, but it'd look kind of strange a bit later when one of them mysteriously refused to die, I guess.

[Does Bo Know]

Mod: Would an innocent child know who the hypothetical masons were?

No.
~DBK

[Varsoon]

@Tunnel: I'm no mason, just a roleblocker.
My meta-post was made mostly to give a headache to people who care about the meta.
Post 182 was me denying being a mason, since that's what I figured Titus was hinting at.

[Varsoon]

Mod: How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Pop?

[CherryDrPepper]

^
Can't tell if srs...