NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[Amethyst Kitty]

Despo. I love you for that. Priceless.

[ThAdmiral]

I don't really care about the neighborhoods. For all I know you and Thad are scum together and are just claiming that you're a neighborhood.

That would be the best scum play of all time.

@ human destroyer: so you want me and peregrine lynched. Do you think that we are scum that claimed neighbor together -

therefore making us possibly the dumbest pair of scum-partners ever to play mafia?

Or do you think we are two scum from opposing factions, forced to live together in a neighborhood like the original fucking odd couple?

Sarcasm

[Cephrir]

That really doesn't look like sarcasm.

[Human Destroyer]

Desperado just shot up on my townlist.

@ human destroyer: so you want me and peregrine lynched. Do you think that we are scum that claimed neighbor together - therefore making us possibly the dumbest pair of scum-partners ever to play mafia? Or do you think we are two scum from opposing factions, forced to live together in a neighborhood like the original fucking odd couple?

The latter.

[Human Destroyer]

I don't really care about the neighborhoods. For all I know you and Thad are scum together and are just claiming that you're a neighborhood.

That would be the best scum play of all time.

@ human destroyer: so you want me and peregrine lynched. Do you think that we are scum that claimed neighbor together -

therefore making us possibly the dumbest pair of scum-partners ever to play mafia?

Or do you think we are two scum from opposing factions, forced to live together in a neighborhood like the original fucking odd couple?

Sarcasm

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ThAdmiral

[Desperado]

I don't really care about the neighborhoods. For all I know you and Thad are scum together and are just claiming that you're a neighborhood.

That would be the best scum play of all time.

@ human destroyer: so you want me and peregrine lynched. Do you think that we are scum that claimed neighbor together -

therefore making us possibly the dumbest pair of scum-partners ever to play mafia?

Or do you think we are two scum from opposing factions, forced to live together in a neighborhood like the original fucking odd couple?

Sarcasm

Bullshit.

[penguin_alien]

I suppose Kublai Khan could have protected a VT claim, which would let Rena have been blocked. I don't love it, but I suppose it works.

PV, do you still trust ThAd? Do you think he trusts you?

Forgot, UNVOTE: Rena

??

??

?? I forgot that I meant to unvote Rena in that post when I came around to being willing to consider that KK used his JK on a claimed VT. I got distracted by trying to sort out how PV came to be regarded as so shady. Are you asking why? See below.

Rena, do you agree that both you and ThAd are claiming to have unsuccessful night actions? Do you think you were both blocked? If you're town, wouldn't you be massively suspicious of ThAd and/or Bulbazak?

1. Clearly, we are.
2. Asking me if I think we have both been blocked is presuming I believe ThAd's claim. I sort of believe it, I'm not 100% certain. Why would I be suspicious of Bulba? I actually presumed KK had JK'd ThAd because that's the only way (given the claims) that both myself and he could have unsuccessful night actions. What wouldn't surprise me is if mafia threw out a PR claim knowing I would target that as looking at my previous watcher strategy for the game, it's clear I was targetting claimed town PR's. Blocking me at the same time would ensure I did not get a result if I did something unpredictable. Why do you think I should be suspicious of ThAd?

I don't know if a game with a Ninja usually has both a Watcher and a Tracker; if not, it isn't inconceivable that Rena opted to gamble that one wouldn't be around and fake-claimed.

This sort of thing doesn't occur to me. I never think of role combinations, instead I opt for letting everyone else think of them for me. That's why my fakeclaims are usually duds. It's definitely inconceivable, I don't think enough for that.

Why did you unvote me?

2) The whole thing at the end of the the last day phase was that ThAd was sketchy and he was being given the night phase to prove his vig claim by dropping a body. As a town PR, KK shouldn't have been trying to screw over a claimed fellow town PR. If he believed ThAd, blocking him from proving himself could have set him up for a lynch today; if he didn't believe him, did he think scum would have such a high profile target do the kill for them? In the meantime, you're saying you think it's possible 'mafia threw out a PR claim knowing I would target that' but you don't know why you should then be suspicious of ThAd after no extra NK happening?

My line of thought: if you were blocked, ThAd shouldn't have been. Which means his purported kill failed for another reason. Possible reasons: 1) ...he isn't a vig 2) his target was protected by another PR 3) his target has some type of innate protection. 1) is on hold apparently. 2) is actually decently likely if KK thought he was protecting a town read. Reading over his last few posts, they do seem to indicate he hated both major wagons, and he was engaging with Bulbazak like a fellow townie. 3) we've already had a town 2-shot BP flip. There are some roles that redirect actions, but then we likely would have seen another body drop.

So basically, I now think it's more likely that Bulbazak could have been protected by the JK, which makes it possible and even likely that you were blocked. So no more vote.

Rena
bulb
ctd
Cephir
nacho
bacde
^
the last 4 scum be in there

What about Seanald? I know he's voting your preferred lynch, Nero Cain, but how is he not on this list where Bacde, for example, is? And I keep reading the back-and-forth between you and Bulbazak, and it's so focused on you disagreeing about the hypothetical composition of the neighborhoods and how you both have voted/been suspicious of others as a result. You say he's buddying CTD; is there anything independent of neighborhood issues that you find scummy in his play?

[AngryPidgeon]

One-Hundred-Twenty-Fifth Votecount

:

(Seventh Votecount of Day Four,

AKA, the "Somebody Prod the Mod " votecount.

)

Bulbazak - 5 (Nero Cain, ThAdmiral, Seanald, CrashTextDummie, Desperado)

PeregrineV - 3 (Nachomamma8, ffullisade, Cephrir)

Nachomamma8 - 2 (Bacde, PeregrineV)
Nero Cain - 1 (Bulbazak)
ThAdmiral - 1 (Human Destroyer)

Not Voting - 3 (Rena, Amethyst Kitty, penguin_alien)

With

15

alive, it's

8

to lynch.

Day Four's deadline is Wednesday, July 31st, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-07-31 12:30:00).

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Bulbazak - 5 (

Human Destroyer

, Nero Cain, ThAdmiral, Seanald, CrashTextDummie,

Desperado

)
PeregrineV - 3 (Nachomamma8, ffullisade, Cephrir,

Desperado

)
Nachomamma8 - 2 (Bacde, PeregrineV)
Nero Cain - 1 (Bulbazak)
ThAdmiral - 1 (

Human Destroyer

)

Not Voting - 3 (Rena, Amethyst Kitty, penguin_alien)

Last votecount was page 201, post 5001.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D4

CrashTextDummie: Nero Cain->Bulbazak
Cephrir: Rena->PeregrineV
Nachomamma8: PeregrineV
PeregrineV: Nachomamma8
Nero Cain: Bulbazak
Bacde: Nachomamma8
Bulbazak: Nero Cain
Desperado: Amethyst Kitty->PeregrineV->Bulbazak
penguin_alien: Rena ->Unvote
Seanald: Bulbazak
ThAdmiral: Bulbazak
Rena:
Amethyst Kitty:
ffullisade: PeregrineV
Human Destroyer: Bulbazak->ThAdmiral

Spoiler: Vote History D4

On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 07:28a,

Human Destroyer

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 4831.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 10:11a,

Nero Cain

votes

Bulbazak

in post 4832.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 10:15a,

Bacde

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 4833.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 02:24p,

Bulbazak

votes

Nero Cain

in post 4836.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 02:33p,

Cephrir

votes

Rena

in post 4838.
On Thu, Jul 7/11/13 @ 02:26p,

PeregrineV

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 4867.
On Thu, Jul 7/11/13 @ 05:18p,

Nachomamma8

votes

PeregrineV

in post 4870.
On Thu, Jul 7/11/13 @ 06:04p,

CrashTextDummie

votes

Nero Cain

in post 4871.
On Fri, Jul 7/12/13 @ 08:38a,

Desperado

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 4879.
On Fri, Jul 7/12/13 @ 08:10p,

ThAdmiral

votes

Bulbazak

in post 4899.
On Sun, Jul 7/14/13 @ 04:25p,

Seanald

votes

Bulbazak

in post 4937.
On Mon, Jul 7/15/13 @ 00:12a,

penguin_alien

votes

Rena

in post 4942.
On Mon, Jul 7/15/13 @ 04:10p,

ffullisade

votes

PeregrineV

in post 4960.
On Mon, Jul 7/15/13 @ 04:15p,

Cephrir

votes

PeregrineV

in post 4961.
On Mon, Jul 7/15/13 @ 05:05p,

Desperado

votes

PeregrineV

in post 4965.
On Mon, Jul 7/15/13 @ 07:22p,

CrashTextDummie

votes

Bulbazak

in post 4966.
On Wed, Jul 7/17/13 @ 09:30a,

penguin_alien

unvotes

Rena

in post 4998.
On Wed, Jul 7/17/13 @ 04:18p,

Desperado

unvotes

PeregrineV

and votes

Bulbazak

in post 5018.
On Thu, Jul 7/18/13 @ 09:10a,

Human Destroyer

unvotes

Bulbazak

and votes

ThAdmiral

in post 5029.

[Human Destroyer]

You say he's buddying CTD; is there anything independent of neighborhood issues that you find scummy in his play?

^ +scumpoints for penguin

[Nero Cain]

yea, she's clearly not reading.

[penguin_alien]

yea, she's clearly not reading.

Everything in your ISO from today that's interaction with Bulbazak talks about the implications of Slandaar's flip, who was voting based on what neighborhood theories, etc. Maybe I'm missing some key point; that's why I'm asking. But I'm reading. All 600+ posts that you and Bulbazak have made combined.

[Nachomamma8]

Mollie I think it's a bad read to expect someone to think like you. Your attacks on Bulb aren't looking to get into his head at all.

Ffery, I would like to seriously connect. I don't think we've made an effort lately but it sort of needs to be done.

I did kinda quit making an effort, yes. What is on the agenda?

another one of those "everyone" projects, probably.

It's just all to incredibly forced, the walls, the buzzwords, and the painfully forced reasoning. It just isn't real it's scum.

give me examples of all of this.
I see walls everywhere, Bulbazak is a pretty big fan of buzzwords, so fuck this reasoning. It's lazy and it's hopping on yet another wagon and it's not even in the normal casual way.

Which means it's exceedingly unlikely that another scum roleblock was around to block Rena in the first place.

Seems pretty unlikely to me as well.

He's got a point.

Oh look, Bacde quotes that you completely ignored when they were actually around.

Nacho quoting Nacho as the reason to tunnel me.

That was my rebuttal to you calling me useless. The assertion that I'm tunneling you is complete and absolute bullshit, considering the Bulbazak-Nero shitshow that's happening right underneath your nose. Was there a reason you ignored that...?

Voting for a town read in a game that does not require a majority lynch.

When one town read is much stronger than the other, yes I'm going to vote the counterwagon.

His point was that he has led the push hard on thez. He saw something that I didn't see, and thez flipped scum. So if he's seeing it again, then he's right, listen to him.

So your point is that Bacde was right on Thez and so Bacde is right on me. Where was this BEFORE I started pushing you?

Nacho is town and your case is bad and, consequently, unconvincing.

Then, in simple terms, why is he town?

You still haven't even begun to explain why I'm scum.

My Nacho paranoia is heightening again. I really want to see his response to the accusations brought against him.

Response to WHAT accusations?

[ffullisade]

another one of those "everyone" projects, probably.

Good. I'm around.

- f

[Nachomamma8]

Peregrine, my original accusation on you was for "active lurking" as I know you have a tendency to do as we discovered in Dark Souls. There's the addition of that hard OMGUS (which is not a scumtell usually, but again, Dark Souls and I know you are a better player than that) where you began to suspect me immediately after I started pushing on you and not a moment before (ThAd's input on when Peregrine started pushing for me to die would be great), but in thread you started suspecting me after I started pushing you, which is pretty much a mirror to that beautiful, wonderful Dark Souls. I don't like you picking up on Bacde's push of me when it suits you because you ignored that COMPLETELY before (seriously, why are you just picking up on this now?), and I think your case on me is shallow as fuck and made more out of a place of necessity as opposed to "oh hey, Nacho is actually scum" based on it being composed of "Nacho has been useless" which is obviously wrong, sheeping off a Bacde case that you ignored before, and then a couple things from my case on you and nothing in the pages and pages I've produced before then.

[Nachomamma8]

Rena's probably scum at this point.

So basically, I now think it's more likely that Bulbazak could have been protected by the JK, which makes it possible and even likely that you were blocked. So no more vote.

It wasn't likely that Bulbazak would've been shot during the night by scum, so doesn't really make sense for him to protect him from mafia. It ALSO doesn't really make sense for him to protect from ThAd's vig kill when he hadn't really engaged ThAd that much during the day meaning that he wasn't INCREDIBLY DISSATISFIED with ThAd's options to the point where he would block him to protect townreads. So this is a bit of a stretch and it's more likely that ThAd got mafia roleblocked and Rena is lying lying lying.

[Nachomamma8]

seanald's been playing the lazy opportunism game.
i don't like his buddying up to Bacde after reading Vengeball.
i'm very sorry for not hopping on that wagon when the chance was given to me.

[Rena]

Well there's been that whole case made against you, you have been some of the major lynch wagons.

I'm scum? Oh?

[Nachomamma8]

"that whole case made against you".
Summarize it, 10 minutes. Go.

[Rena]

I can't find why people were voting you o.o I've got the buddying Bulbz (possibly) thing.

That didn't answer my question, why all of a sudden has your read on me changed?

[Bacde]

VOTE: ThAd

[Nachomamma8]

My read changed on you because two PRs were blocked during the night and I'm more likely to believe ThAd with the vigilante claim as opposed to your watcher claim since you've let me out in the dust and my town read's gotten a bit stale.

[ffullisade]

VOTE: Rena

[Human Destroyer]

Rena did you ever answer my question about who your N1 action was?

[Nero Cain]

it was OM.

but we should be lynching Bulbscum today.

[Bulbazak]

Pages 199-200:

@ Cephrir & Bulba-

Why did I vote Nacho?

Well,
4843
4844
He's got a point.

4632
Nacho quoting Nacho as the reason to tunnel me.

4782
Voting for a town read in a game that does not require a majority lynch.

(lots of posts)
Buddying ffulisade

Everchanging and confusing reads (spoiled below):

Spoiler: Senald scum/not scum, Bulba not scum but 4806

you know that i would not call somene town unless my gut hardly says.. Nero is town. and If feel you're town. So, Now stop pissing each other..

Unvote, Vote: Seanald

And also i want to know what your thoughts on Cephier.

Cephrir's probably town.

let's look at cephrir. does anybody seriously believe that cephrir has no idea what to do with thad's "trolling". omg, no. I mean that is what cephrir is saying, "I have no idea what to do about thad's trolling cos I have just never encountered it before!". oh plz.

I've learned that trolling can apparently throw people off in extremely weird ways.

bacde, you freak me out because dragonballz.

- f

this essentially is dragonballz
and sooner or later everything will just click and a bunch of scum will die and everything will be okay.

Fery makes me sad on so many levels. Like SUPER SAD. ~~~Actually I said this to Mara after the Donner Party game ended. There was something similar that was said here to something said there. Bulb had a total different reaction to it here which made me lean town on him mainly because he was SK in DP.

I don't get it.

- f

they're town.

The only argument I've seen in Nero's defense is that his play here reminds people of other town games of his. I find this to be a very unreliable use of meta, because it assumes that Nero-scum is incapable of emulating his town play.

I trust mollie's (and AA's, believe it or not) instincts when dealing with Nero. Sometimes he plays great, sometimes he plays incredibly scummily, self-destructs, etc.

My problem with your Nero case lately is that we still don't even know it's multiball. If it isn't, your entire case goes up in flames. I think my Seanald case is stronger than your Nero case, straight up.

two kills per night --> claimed vig who hasn't shot --> "blue" scum all sort of equals multiball
if ThAd gets counterclaimed by bullets and flips blue scum, then maybe it's not multiball but that's looking HIGHLY unlikely at this point.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

ffery, I read this game and I don't think Seanald is scum here.
Do you agree or am I reading too much into his approach?

BULBAZAK HAS BEEN TOWN FOR THE WHOLE FUCKING GAME

FFERY MOLLIE IS CALLING BULBAZAK TOWN
FIX IT

Lack of scumreads even though 4-6 scum left (depending on your setup belief).

These are bad reasons to vote Nacho. 1.) Bacde never presented a good reason as to why Nacho is scum. His point was that he has caught more scum than Nacho (read: 1), and should therefore be trusted. It's a fallacious argument and should not be taken as a reason to lynch Nacho. 2.) I would hardly call what Nacho is doing tunneling you. Bacde is tunneling. Nacho is not. 3.) Nacho chose to save his bigger townread. How is that scummy at all? This feels like reaching.

Desperado's analysis and response to this is spot on as well.

Note to the town: Nero has no intention of ever following up on this. If he thinks I'm good enough scum to fool almost the entire town with my play, it's completely nonsensical that he'd even entertain the idea that he could find a friendly neighbor in one of my past games. He's throwing around a bunch of theories with no regard for whether they actually make sense. Pseudo-scumhunting at it's finest.

Then why are you not voting Nero?

If he truly believed in his theory yesterday, a certain amount of paranoia makes sense. Though it's just as likely (or maybe more so) that he was simply overreaching with his argument yesterday to save his own hide and now has to backpedal to maintain a semblance of reason.

I truly thought that Slandaar would flip scum and was shocked when that did not happen. If I was just trying to save my hide, I would have pushed the Nero wagon harder, as it had more people on it at the time.

Nero is once again throwing out a wide net of conflicting theories ("Bulba is buddying CTD!", "Bulba reversed his read on CTD!", "Bulba and CTD might be scumbuddies!")

At least I'm not the only one seeing it...

They magically ended up together on the Slandaar mislynch after being at each other's throat (more suspicious from Nero's end, who had every reason to vote Bulba since he was arguing for his lynch for a significant portion of yesterday, and pretty much had no reason to vote Slandaar after he conceded the scum-% point)

I have a theory about that, but I want to talk to Nacho first.

If you decide to finally stop giving Nero a pass, I'd much prefer lynching him still.

That's what I'm trying to do, but the big supporters of the lynch, including yourself, seem to want to go elsewhere.

His point was that he has led the push hard on thez. He saw something that I didn't see, and thez flipped scum. So if he's seeing it again, then he's right, listen to him.

Just because he caught scum once does not mean he's automatically right again. That is lazy and fallacious reasoning.

Are you REALLY giving a reason that Bulb would backtrack? Context says you two are full of it. He's STILL town reading Thad and PV BECAUSE of his theory. AND he's still believes that Sean is scum and in his theory he thinks both teams have a undercover hoodling. So if he believes that and is unwilling revisit THAD or PV then you are the POE scum. I think its likely he has a buddy in you or PV. I'm also not arguing about him setting up a lynch on you. I'm saying that in his theory he has you listed as scum and now he's backing away from calling you scum for some reason.

You are taking separate components and saying that they are all one. All that my setup spec says is that if there is scum from 1 team in the neighborhoods, then there is scum from the other team as well, and that given the vig claim, there is likely to be only 1 killing role in each neighborhood. Given that Slandaar didn't flip scum, I've put that to the side for now until we get a flip that either supports or disproves it. PV-town is a separate component, because I find it highly unlikely that scum would be placed in a neighborhood with a vig in multiball due to balancing issues. My Seanald read is another component entirely, as it is based off of actual scumtells, and not theory. Each of these 3 can help in PoE, but only in the case of a flip, until then they're separate, as some can be proven invalid while others hold true. Now it's true that my setup spec has shed doubt on my townread of CTD, but that's all that it's done, as my actual read and analysis of CTD's play tells me something different. Therefore, until there's a scumflip in the neighborhoods, I'm not even going to bother with the main setup spec. Doing so would essentially be randomly lynching and hoping for scum, which is the equivalent to policy lynching, which I am not the biggest fan of, especially at this stage of the game.

On to page 201.