Open 512: See Nine Plus Plus (Game Ovah)

[Does Bo Know]

Votecount 1.13

[L-1] Saki - Flench, Paschendale, CherryDrPepper, Varsoon, Titus, Saki

[L-5] CherryDrPepper - Dyslexicon, oriole
[L-5] jmo16mla - Glass, StubbsKVM
[L-6] Glass - jmo16mla

Not Voting: Vote Me, TunnelVision

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Deadline is Friday, August 2nd, 2013 at 7:30 PM CST ((expired on 2013-08-02 19:30:00)).

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[Saki]

Also scum would only get a roleblocker if town has more than three PRs. I don't do much math so I don't know how likely that is but I don't think it's very likely.

[oriole]

Why would you choose the single most unlikely possibility as a fakeclaim?

[Titus]

I'd imagine a scum who isn't a roleblocker fake claiming vanilla townie or doctor. Those two are the easiest to hide as. Doctor, the scum can pretend to be incompetent. Without a tracker, townie can't really be disproven either.

You can't also claim my statistics argument as bad and then claim scum are unlikely to get a roleblocker. Three PRs is possible. In fact, that would be about a 50/50 shot.

Actually, Saki I didn't have you scummy for the whole game. I suspected you due to your opening but that's different than having you as scummy. You kinda volunteered to claim, hardly "jumping in for the kill". I also don't see your behavior as newbie town PR paranoia.

[Titus]

Why would you choose the single most unlikely possibility as a fakeclaim?

Why leap to claim if someone's indeed a roleblocker? I'm thinking Saki just looked and saw ooh I'm the scum roleblocker, better claim roleblocker if pressured.

[CherryDrPepper]

Well time to go into analysis:
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker <-- minimum for scum roleblocker is 4 Ts, that means that town needs at least 3 non Ts

B = Roleblocker <- 1 B would mean town gets a roleblocker, so that means that there's a higher chance for a town RB than a scum RB, and tbh i dont think newbscum saki would have come with enough math to make a fakeclaim like that

unvote

P-Edit: Was about to unvote, but Titus latest post is making me feel like it might have actually been a fakeclaim.

[Saki]

I'm still paranoid.

Townreading oriole for not hammering.
Scumreading Titus for not unvoting.
Scumreading Flench for not dropping a single comment (if he's here, that is).

P-EDIT: DAMMIT TITUS I'M NOT LYING.

[Saki]

Oh CherryDP is here, stronger scumread for not unvoting, either.

[Saki]

Why would you choose the single most unlikely possibility as a fakeclaim?

Why leap to claim if someone's indeed a roleblocker? I'm thinking Saki just looked and saw ooh I'm the scum roleblocker, better claim roleblocker if pressured.

I don't get why you think I'd think that hard.

[CherryDrPepper]

Actually no, if saki is newbscum do you really think he would have fakcelaimed roleblocker?

UNVOTE:

Don't feel safe leaving Saki at L-1 while we haven't heard the possibility of there being another town roleblocker, which would then drop his claim into the very unlikely territory

P-Edit: I think saki's still pretty new for this, and unless his partners told him to fakeclaim RB on the QT i highly doubt he would come with something like this.

[Saki]

welp now that there's an unvote out

UNVOTE:

[oriole]

If there's a full roleblocker, Saki's claim is pretty much a fakeclaim, but if there's a 1-shot roleblocker, Saki's pretty much confirmed.

[Saki]

Planned to do that claim shitstorm when people were more active to try and draw in more scum

[Saki]

I hate you Titus for making me rush it

[CherryDrPepper]

If there's a full roleblocker, Saki's claim is pretty much a fakeclaim, but if there's a 1-shot roleblocker, Saki's pretty much confirmed.

What makes you think that tho?

BBB -> there can still be TTTT or am i missing something?

[CherryDrPepper]

oh wait forgot about innocent child.. that's an M

[Saki]

If there's a full roleblocker, Saki's claim is pretty much a fakeclaim, but if there's a 1-shot roleblocker, Saki's pretty much confirmed.

What makes you think that tho?

BBB -> there can still be TTTT or am i missing something?

it is possible to have BBBTTTT. Just very unlikely

and I believe B is blocker and BB is blocker+1-shot blocker.

Hence Oriole's statement that if there's a 1-shot blocker BB is confirmed therefore I'm confirmed

[oriole]

Well, BBB is pretty improbable (a chance of .01%).

The setup would be BBBM(Pasche is IC)TTT, then.

I mean, it's not like Saki would be confscum or anything, but...

[CherryDrPepper]

so right now we got MBXXXXX (X means unknown) obviously additional PRs and scum can narrow this down more.

P-Edit it's impossible to have BBB and TTTTT because 1 of the Ts has to be an M, it's the confirmed innocent child.

[Saki]

Never mind I'm stupid it cna't be BBBTTTT because of Pasche

but I'm right about B/BB, right?

[Saki]

so right now we got MBXXXXX (X means unknown) obviously additional PRs and scum can narrow this down more.

I'm starting to regret claiming.
MBXXXXX is no more helpful than MXXXXXX

[Titus]

Making you rush it, Saki? When someone volunteers to do something, I'll almost always put their feet to the fire.

I also think Saki's claim is something a newbie scum player would do. It's exactly what I would do if I was the scum roleblocker and I'm not an expert on this site.

There's not enough here to do setup speculation and be beneficial about it right now.

VOTE: Flench

Still think that guy is scum.

[CherryDrPepper]

*me checks again* Yeah if there's 4 Ts or less there's 1 scum roleblocker, we can't be sure tho yet, and that's just assuming you arent a scum roleblocker yourself, but i still don't think you can fakeclaim something like that.

Also i realized i forgot to sign my previous posts all of them are me.

-Sakura Hana

[Paschendale]

I... um... gah! So there I am, reading the last four pages, and I was totally ready to clear Saki and move on. And then the threat to self-vote. I have a rule. You don't let a scumread off because they're acting like a noob. I've let too many scum slip through my fingers that way.

Oh, and then a self-vote putting him at L-1. Fuckin' hell. Regardless of his alignment, Saki deserves to die. I honestly have no idea what his alignment is at this point. But his play is terrible.

Unvote

If you make me regret this, Saki, I will reach through the internet and slap you.

Also, after this game, sign up for a couple more newbie games before you wade into the deep end of the pool again.

I feel okay about Oriole right now. But I don't see how roleblocker is a rare role. Any B's yield one. And 7 rolls means a 35% chance of rolling at least one B. It doesn't seem outrageous. But it is the only role that town and scum can share. So it's easier to verify.

I like Cherry's read list. Iffy about your read in Jmo. What happened in 9 posts to go from null to town on him? So many others' scumreads on Flench are making me question my read on him. Definitely worth further examination. But I agree about all the lurkers. Dyslex, Tunnel, VoteMe, and Stubbs. Weigh in and do it well or one of you gets lynched today.

OHMYGOD WILL YOU PEOPLE STOP POSTING FOR A SECOND SO I CAN SUBMIT THIS!?!? Half of it is obsolete already.

[Paschendale]

You guys posted an entire page while I was writing that.