Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[Skruffs]

I'm referring to in the beginning, before you got called out on it, CES.

[Zindaras]

I don't follow. *eats newspaper*
I'm not saying there isn't a cultist. There is in all likelihood one, but I think the scum are trying to get the townies to turn on each other.
It's possible the SK is actually a vig. That is a pro town role. It's possible that there are two cultists. It's also possible SV didin't get any recruits and was waiting until she had something to defend (someone to back her up) before she claimed a cop. Three failed attempts would be discouraging. Why bring attention to yourself when you have nobody on your side.
I love SV but in the game I just played with her, she was scum with me, and she was fairly conservative.
She was *supposed* to claim cop as mafia but never did, and after the game faltered for a week or two, i took the reins and claimed it instead. Point is, I'm not going to cut off my nose because I'm afraid it has a booger in it. pro townerse (and cultists, if any) should all want the mafia gone, that's the only Certified threat we are facing.

Voidybuns claimed Day Three with a "scum result" on PookyDele, if my memory's serving me well. She also claimed to have found scum in GlorkoS.

There's 2 Cult, max. In Night 2, voidybuns targeted PookyDele. In Night 3, she targeted GlorkoS. This leaves Night 1 and Night 4 unaccounted (she died in Night 4). She claimed to know PookyDele was scum Day 3. Why would she not do the same Day 2 if she had found scum at that point? Why would she not have claimed knowledge of an extra scumbag?

No, there has to be a Cultist from Night 1. If she took the risk to claim, she would've claimed all her "scum results", not just the ones that she did.

[Skruffs]

Well... this is a suggestion and then I will let it drop.
I dunno, teh roleblockers were pretty suspicious of SV D2, weren't they?
lordy made no mention of anything while he posted, even saying "I have nothing to go on.."
When klebian finally claimed gunsmith he said he had a 'no gun' on STD, which is a safe claim considering he was obviously dead.
My bet is that they were blocked. I scoured the RBers and got nothing off of them one way or another except heir suspicion of SV. Of course, the counterclaim to this is that if they had blocked SV they would know she didn't kill anyone, and wouldn't be suspicious.
Then again, they were newbs.

Anyways, attempt at optimistic reasoning is over. Let's get ze scum.

[petroleumjelly]

Wow, that looks like a staged argument if I ever saw one.

Zindaras and Skruffs, the two of you are partners together, and of the same body - why did you hold that conversation ("There's this many cult" v "No, there's this many!") in-thread instead of by PM or via AIM?

When people do unnecessary things like

that

when there are clearly better alternatives, I tend to think there's an underlying reason for doing so. You both knew you were both on Mafia Scum at the same time, and you both knew you both had access to each other.

Glad I held off on the CES-lynch: I think Zindaras/Skruffs are probably the better choice. Not only did Zindaras push a pro-cult agenda today, but now Zindie + Skruffs are having a completely unneccessary in-thread argument specifically about the cult, for which the purpose seems to be to make them look like they are, in fact, not cult.

Vote: Zindaras/Skruffs

. I might switch to CES later if I feel as if it will be necessary to get the game moving along, but I'm starting to wonder if CES is a mafiate and you are a cultist.

PJ/MBL are the SK. I'm guessing all the "serious chats" between you are about how to proceed as you try to work out a way to endgame us all and pull off the upset. Whatever. The town clearly needs you for now to have any chance.

You need to get yourself out of this mindset. I would definitely wait for Amb to come back to the thread: I am fairly good at reading power roles, and not only did I think Amb was a SK/Vig by the beginning of Day 2, but MBL also thought the same thing. I cannot see another player in the game who would make those nightkills (Fritz/Ibby, Coron/StallingChamp/DGB, Fritz/thestatusquo (and finally spec/kleb) other than Amb.

Now, I

have

been trying to get scum to want to kill each other tonight, yes: and that's because I think that gives the town the best chance of winning (see: analyses). Scum normally cannot win with other scum groups alive, so if the town can get them to eliminate each other at night (since they risk losing by

not

going after other scum), the town will be the faction that benefits the most. Note my earlier analysis on why it is best to lynch a cultist today, and the actions the town should take in order to best secure a win depending on the night results. I have been trying to play in the town's best interest as much as possible, as opposed to pushing agendas which will achieve the opposite result.

[Zindaras]

You have not rebutted how my actions were pushing a pro-cult agenda, looking at my earlier experiences with Cults.

Also, what would you have done if I had, instead, talked to Skruffs over PM? Anyone else could've (and would've) pointed out the fact that it was complete bull.

[petroleumjelly]

WHAT?

I

haven't rebutted the fact that you weren't pushing a pro-cult agenda? Yeah, let's look at your posts real quick.

Post 1068, pushing a lynch on non-cult scum. Post 1070, after being told you were not considering all the knowledge we have, you still pushed a lynch on non-cult scum.

I rebutted your push in Post 1075]Post 1075. Only until this was gone over in explicit detail did you stop pushing your idea. So yes, I would say you were pushing a pro-cult agenda.

Response to your second question: that's when you send Skruffs a PM telling him his "theory" makes no sense, or talk to him over AIM. If you get him to change his mind, he can say as much in-thread. The fact that you dramatized it (with such things as "whacks with newspaper" and "eat newspaper") makes it simply look like you two were

bantering

, and that there was a purpose behind that banter.

[Amb]

Since it is now out in the open, I am a vigilante. Since Nightson hasnt claimed as I requested, I will kill him tonight since I genuinely think him to be mafia. Yes my request for a role claim was going to decide for me what I did, and his refusal to claim and then silence made my mind up for me Hitting cop 1 and cop 2 in the first two nights was out and out a horrible fluke. (The actual odds of doing that blindly are pretty miniscule) I was hitting out the non contributors given the extremely spammy nature of the game. Anyone not genuinely trying, and just posting 'spamcrap' was on my target list, because scum can go for an easy easy game that way. Once I killed two cops off, I more or less dropped off posting myself because of the massive damage I had done.

The way I see this game going is 1. CES/Mgm die by lynch, I kill Nightson, and I die overnight. 2. Zindaras is lynched as cult, and or someone else is lynched as scum.

I do not know how many mafia there are, but I suspect two, but hope one.

[petroleumjelly]

BOOYA.

Would you mind unvoting CES for a short time, please, Amb? The town should be able to win this if we play it just right.

Oh man, I haven't even finished reading your post, I am that pumped.

[Zindaras]

WHAT?

I

haven't rebutted the fact that you weren't pushing a pro-cult agenda? Yeah, let's look at your posts real quick.

Post 1068, pushing a lynch on non-cult scum. Post 1070, after being told you were not considering all the knowledge we have, you still pushed a lynch on non-cult scum.

I rebutted your push in Post 1075]Post 1075. Only until this was gone over in explicit detail did you stop pushing your idea. So yes, I would say you were pushing a pro-cult agenda.

At which point I was under the assumption that a second Cultist was pretty damn unlikely because of the differences in Cults between where I usually play and here (percentage chance as opposed to 100% chance of success, as I denoted in 1087). I felt that the chance of there being two Cultists were pretty damn small.

Response to your second question: that's when you send Skruffs a PM telling him his "theory" makes no sense, or talk to him over AIM. If you get him to change his mind, he can say as much in-thread.

"Hey, Skruffs gave an opinion but Zindie called him back on it! It's obvious that they're Cult and Skruffs slipped up but Zindie tried to fix it by telling him to take it back!"

The fact that you dramatized it (with such things as "whacks with newspaper" and "eat newspaper") makes it simply look like you two were

bantering

, and that there was a purpose behind that banter.

Entirely WIFOM, this argument is.

[petroleumjelly]

Also, apologies if I outed you before you wanted to be known, Amb. I was seeing quite a few people say that they (for whatever reason) thought I was a SK, and the last thing I wanted was to be nightkilled by the Mafia because they thought the same.

Read over your post a few times, and I am fairly certain I believe your claim: it helps that I've been anticipating it for about half the game, of course. I think your POA looks fine from where I'm sitting: if things fall into place, the town will hopefully have 2 town v 1 scum tomorrow, which is pretty much the most we can ask for at this point.

PPE:

My position is not that Skruffs "slipped up": my opinion is that the two of you arranged that slip up, specifically for the purpose of putting on a show to make it so the two of you look like you haven't been culted. The wording of your posts and the general banter I read between them supports this. Of course I can't have cold, hard facts: this

is

a subjective game. I have to read deeper than what is on the surface. I sense fakery in your posts, and I'm calling the two of you out on it. Call it gut if you like.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I personally don't buy that theory, although Zind is still culty scum.

[Zindaras]

My position is not that Skruffs "slipped up": my opinion is that the two of you arranged that slip up, specifically for the purpose of putting on a show to make it so the two of you look like you haven't been culted. The wording of your posts and the general banter I read between them supports this. Of course I can't have cold, hard facts: this

is

a subjective game. I have to read deeper than what is on the surface. I sense fakery in your posts, and I'm calling the two of you out on it. Call it gut if you like.

*shrugs*

If the thing was real, would we be more likely viewed as Town? Faking an argument is bull. You and MBL may like to discuss things off-thread, I like to keep things nice and tight in thread, as I feel that you can't go wrong with posting your opinions.

[petroleumjelly]

Whatever you say. One of the reasons

I

signed up for this game was so I could talk to somebody out-of-thread while the game was in Day. That's not something you get to do in other games, and I enjoy being able to bounce ideas on who is scum off of MBL, since we often both see different things which lead us to similar conclusions.

[Zindaras]

*shrugs*

Main reason I signed up for this game was because it seemed fun. Personally, I've never been enamored with Mason roles.

We have had some minor talks, yes, which led to me putting you as SK (Skruffs thought you were scum, I agreed with him). It also led to Skruffs's post, as I poked him to post his opinions, because I felt that I was doing most of the talking for our body. Unfortunately, I didn't ask him what he was going to post, or otherwise I would've explained the problems to him then and there.

[Amb]

Unvote CES/Mgm

[Amb]

Also, apologies if I outed you before you wanted to be known, Amb

I had thought about doing so earlier, but held off while players were trying to paint you as SK. I thought if you were painted clearly enough then you would become an obvious night target - thus leaving me alive.

I still intend to vig Nightson tonight. However since it is out in the open, I would have no problem with that being debated more now.

[Skruffs]

Thanks for claiming, Vig : I would take a very VERY serious look at PJ's defense of CES and the way PJ has haphazardly tried to get pro town players lynched through the whole game. I personally feel that nightson isn't scum: I now think it's PJ and CES. That's my honest feelings about it. I thought before PJ Might be an overexcited vig but this kind of confirms as mafia, to me at least.

Zindaras told me on AIM to post my opinions of people, I told him, that generally when I post my feelings in games, I get lynched because of it. But I did anyways, because people are forgetting about the other halves, and if we do get lynched, I want to at least say I tried to help the town. ME and Zind will go down together. The fact that the bulk of what we are sayign is being 'discarded' in leiu of a superficial attack on our motives s

hould be irrelevant, I Think. Wether we are really fighting or not, take a look at what was said and consider if you think it's realistic or not. Take a look at PJ who's been trying to get non-killing roles lynched (which in the end will make it easier for the mafia, not the town, to win).

Side note: I've tried talking to Zindaras on AIM but he's always like "Yeah. Ok. Sure. Ok. Whatever." I thought at first he was depressed, or distant, but I guess it's just that he feels betrayed because I lied to him in another game. So maybe he's just preferring to talk with me out in the open.

Personally I am not going to go after whoever the cultists are, because, the town needs the cultists to vote with them today. Vig + Townie + Cultists > Mafia
or
Vig + Town < Mafia + Cultists (Assumign there are two of each)
Technically the cultists (only if there are two of them) could out themselves and make a deal with the mafia, in broad daylight, to lynch the townie today, and let the vig decide who to nightkill, to give the other side the majority to win the game. That's why I don't think there are two cultists, which is why I think we should lynch the mafia, instead.

[MrBuddyLee]

I think there's a 2-person cult remaining, one scum and a vig. The kills look more pro-town to me than I'd expect from an SK. I think a setup of 3 scum and a cult would be rough enough for us without throwing an SK into the mix, so that's my speculation as to the setup.

If CES was Vig he'd have claimed by now. He's not.

If we lynch CES right now that leaves {town town vig scum cult} or {town town vig cult cult}. Scum kills, vig shoots for scum, leaving 3 tomorrow.

If it's town vig scum we can win.
If it's town scum cult I think we lose no matter what.

So basically the two ways we lose are:
1) We lynch a townie today. That would make it >75% likely that we're in a no-win situation tomorrow.
2) The vig vigs town tonight. I believe that's a guaranteed loss for us.

CES oozes scum--I don't think we'll lose by lynching him. I'd advise the vig to take out Nightson, but I also think Zindaras has shown signs of being scum as well. I don't see any point in dithering over whether the vig is an SK or not, because if he's an SK then I believe we've lost for certain at this point.

It's helpful at this point to think like a cultist or scum. Right now if there are two cultists, they're either piling on an easy lynch of a non-cultist for a near-guaranteed win or they're distancing in an effort to keep one alive. As I've mentioned before and is probably obvious, scum is most likely to be the guy obsessing over cult. I don't think scum would dither aimlessly about the cult at this point, I think they'd be focused like a laser, which is why I don't think Zindy/Skruffs or Lowell are mafia scum.

It's really all up to the vig at this point is what it boils down to.

[MrBuddyLee]

edit: i typed that up before reading Amb's claim, reading what I missed...

[petroleumjelly]

1.)

Thanks for claiming, Vig : I would take a very VERY serious look at PJ's defense of CES and the way PJ has haphazardly tried to get pro town players lynched through the whole game. I personally feel that nightson isn't scum: I now think it's PJ and CES. That's my honest feelings about it. I thought before PJ Might be an overexcited vig but this kind of confirms as mafia, to me at least.

Please show me where I "defended" CES, Skruffs. The most I have done is ask people to not

rush

, because that is how towns lose games. I want to make sure as many scum as possible are killed tonight, and that the town will be able to lynch any remaining scum correctly tomorrow.

2.)

Take a look at PJ who's been trying to get non-killing roles lynched (which in the end will make it easier for the mafia, not the town, to win).

Are you daft? I explained in explicit detail why lynching a Cultist today gives the town an extraordinarily larger chance of winning this game than lynching a killing role would. See my Post 1075. This is, in fact, the second time I have had to reference this on this same page, and the last time I referenced it was responding to your partner, Zindaras. I appreciate that it appears as though you have not been reading my posts. I have a logical and reasoned basis for why I am searching for the scum I am searching for when I am searching for them, and I have shown how this gives the town the best chances of winning.

3.)

Personally I am not going to go after whoever the cultists are, because, the town needs the cultists to vote with them today. Vig + Townie + Cultists > Mafia

BING!

Wow, everybody should read this.

Not only has Zindaras pushed a pro-cult agenda, but now Skruffs is pushing a pro-cult agenda, and neither of them has even given a reasonable argument as to why this should be so. Together, they have tried to get the town to think there are either no cultists or one cultists remaining, as if that suddenly makes the cult less dangerous (and this was done through unnecessary argumentation in-thread). I am now 85% sure that Zindaras/Skruffs are cult.

Confirm Vote: Zindaras/Skruffs

. CES could still be scum,

but

I am not as confident of him being cult scum in particular as I am of Zindaras/Skruffs, being cult scum.

We need to be sure we avoid a situation tomorrow where it is possible for there to be 1 cult v 1 Mafia v 1 town [that is not a Vigilante], since the town cannot win in that situation. We need either 1 Cult

or

1 Mafia, and not both. One of these groups

must

be eliminated before tomorrow.

[Lowell]

Hell, I don't know anything.

I think I'm on board with lynching CES. I very much believe Amb's claim.

[petroleumjelly]

Actually, Skruffs, your post is making even less sense. I think you are starting to spray accusations around. Consider:

I would take a very VERY serious look at PJ's defense of CES...

This makes no sense from any position.

1.) Skruffs has stated that he believes CES to be Cult. If I am defending CES, then he must believe CES is my partner, which would then make

me

cult. Not only is that preposterous given my stance on cults in general, but it is further preposterous in that MBL/I were the people to catch the Cult Leader to begin with, and furthermore.

2.) Suppose Skruffs instead thinks I am defending CES because we are both "mafia". In this case, I would be pushing a "lynch a cultist" agenda while trying to lynch CES (which is the oddest form of a 'defense' as I have ever seen).

And if he is contesting that CES and I are of different alignments, then saying I am "defending him" makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

I am beginning to think we lynch Zindaras/Skruffs today (who I am almost positive will come up cult). Amb will kill CES/OTU tonight (who I am almost positive is one of cult or mafia: I can't decide which, but either way, this should eliminate one scum group). This will either end the game immediately, or there should be at most one scum left tomorrow against two townspeople.

[Amb]

Vote Zindaras/Skruffs

[the silent speaker]

Since Nightson hasnt claimed as I requested, I will kill him tonight since I genuinely think him to be mafia.

Why should we claim? There are more scum that helps than town.
Also, don't kill me. I'm pro-town, so you'll lose if you do. Why not kill CES? It seems to be pretty much consensus that he's scum, either the other cult or a killer.

I do not believe amb's claim; instead I think he is mafia. Petroleumjelly's response to it (especially the apology bit) suggests tat they may be scum together.

Unvote: CES, vote: Zindaras, mod: votecount?

because that looks to be a better bet for today.

[petroleumjelly]

That doesn't even make sense, TSS.

Where do you think the second nightkill is coming from?