Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[petroleumjelly]

And would you mind giving defenses that

aren't

WIFOM, if you're going to make a defense at all? It seems like you are constantly saying things like:

1.) Do you really think a Cult Leader would recruit

me

when they could recruit somebody better / more awesome? Do you think kleb/spec are dumb enough to recruit me?
2.) If I were scum, do you think I would have underestimated your diligence?
3.) Do you think I would lie to you about that sort of stuff [failed recruits]?
4.) Do you think I would kill Ibby?
5.) Do you think I would so blatantly argue against Cult possibility as Cult?

I don't mind WIFOM as a defense when used sparingly, but when it starts stacking like this, it is a cause for concern.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I never said 5. 1, 2 and 3 are common sense.

4 is WIFOM, but true, I wouldn't kill Ibby.

[Amb]

I havent seen anything yet to contradict my view that CES is cult, Nightson is mafia. So my CES vote remains.

[Zindaras]

Screw this, I'm going with my gut again.

Vote: Cessybuns/OvertheUnder

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Or, in other words, you have no case.

[petroleumjelly]

Wow, not many posts since I was gone.

Nobody hammer, please. This definitely includes MBL, especially seeing as we

still

need to talk. Sheesh. I don't see a point in not searching for other scum while we have the time.

[Thok]

Rather than more than doubling the letters in CES/MGM, I'm shortening OvertheUnder to OTU.

Vote Count

CES/OTU (3)(TSS/Nightson, Amb/Frustian, Skruffs/Zindaras)

Skruffs/Zindaras (1) (CES/OTU)

Not voting (Lowell/sprontalic, PJ/MBL)

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

[petroleumjelly]

Okay, just talked to MBL (a modern age miracle) for about a half hour on AIM. We both agreed that CES is the correct lynch today, so we're good so far as that goes. But he doesn't think it is overly helpful (or at least as helpful as I had thought) to bother trying to search for a "second scum", since the chances of that being successful will have a lot to do with the alignment of CES. We have differing views on who could be Cult/killers on the extreme off-chance that CES is neither.

Also, he thinks that even if we

find

a second scum, other scum could purposely leave them alive as lynch-bait and try to kill a townsperson instead, thereby enhancing their own chances of not being lynched themselves. I'm not sure I agree with it completely, but I can reasonably see it happening.

I suppose somebody can hammer if they want, but I don't think I can personally lay one down just yet.

[Zindaras]

Or, in other words, you have no case.

You are correct in this assessment.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Zind = cult.
PJ is totally mafia or SK.

[Lowell]

Zind = cult.
PJ is totally mafia or SK.

I'll buy that. In my mind PJ has to be SK at this point.

I'm not confident enough in what's going on to hammer yet. Someone needs to tell me again why I should.

[Zindaras]

This is my gut talking, but this is how I see it:

Cessy-Cult.
Lowell-Town.
PJ-SK.
Amb-Cult.
TSS-Mafia.

[petroleumjelly]

Lowell, how about instead of us telling

you

whether or not you should do something, you actually read the game and decide for yourself? You've been playing in this game long enough that you should know what's going on by now.

For example, who do you think is mafia (since you leave this completely open in your post)?

[Zindaras]

This is my gut talking, but this is how I see it:

Cessy-Cult.
Lowell-Town.
PJ-SK.
Amb-Cult.
TSS-Mafia.

I probably need to clear this up.

Cessy's obvobv scum, in my opinion. He's giving off loads of scumvibes. Lowell because I'm just getting general town vibes from him. If his question about whether you'd know that you were converted or not was asked truthfully, he's confirmed as town. PJ because he feels off somehow, as if he's not really that interested in winning the game for the town.

Amb is based on the assumption that there are two cultists remaining. If there are two remaining, he's the most logical choice for Cult. Relatively active but still not really showing up on the radar. TSS is Mafia by process of elimination, and because he's lurkerscum.

The only other reasonable candidate for cultivation right now is Lowell.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Cessy's obvobv scum, in my opinion. He's giving off loads of scumvibes.

You are clearly making this up.

[petroleumjelly]

PJ because he feels off somehow, as if he's not really that interested in winning the game for the town.

Where do you get that impression? I believe we have already caught CES-scum, and I'm the person who has been calling for people to slow down instead of lynching as quickly as possible. I think (although MBL disagreed with me the other night) that if we can nail a second scum today, the town could potentially get scum to crosskill each other, which is precisely what I think we are going to need in this game.

In fact, I think it's time for MBL and I to make our suspicions more apparent.

Cult: CES, then Zindaras/Skruffs (and if a second Cultist with Zindaras, probably Lowell)
Mafia: Nightson/TSS, or CES
SK: Amb
Town: Lowell/Spront, PJ/MBL

CES pretty much looks like cult to me at this point. I can also easily see him as a (final?) mafiate. His interactions with Pooky/Adele (which included not voting for them until after they were lynched) and Glork/MoS (trying to have them lynched quickly, while also being called "SK" by Glork, which did not look very plausible to me) all support such a theory. Either way, I am fairly convinced with CES being Cult, but as I stated earlier, my opinion on who is what changes depending on the alignment of CES.

If CES is not Cult, then Zindaras almost

definitely

is. Zindaras pushed a

very

bad agenda today, one which would drastically help a Cult (by trying to lynch players with killing abilities: anybody should realize that the town is

going

to need a crosskill or two in order to win this game). Further, if CES is not Cult, that is pretty much the only person Zindaras has even considered to be Cult and has pushed on the entire day (while even most recently stating that he does not have a case). At the end of his latest post, he throws on Lowell as being a possible Cultist even though directly above that he talks about the possibility of Lowell being "cleared" if his question was serious.

Nightson is probably a (the) remaining mafiate, based off of small vibes here and there. He jumped on the speculation of spec/kleb being Cult yesterday immediately, and tried to push a lynch on them over Glork/MoS. Further, in mid-game, Glork/MoS tried to push a very weak case against Nightson, which Nightson then responded to, and then the whole interaction was dropped altogether. As I stated somewhere earlier, it almost looks as if Nightson was actively lurking for much of the early game: he was posting, but none of those posts really included content.

I have been back and forth on Amb the entire game. I am fairly confident he is either a forced Vig or a SK, but I'm just not sure which. All the kills make sense when put into context. Consider:

We have a whole bunch of people showing their faces, pretending to look townlike (or genuinely being townlike, whichever), without saying anything. But day 1 is always like this. So I'm quite happy to fast bandwagon to get through the crap that flies around. Day Ones make mafia boring, because no one wants anything controversial. The controversy causer tends to get lynched. Anyone speculates about the setup - they "must" be scum. They get lynched. Etc. So yes, I will push for a fast day 1 so the game doesnt become boring. At the very least pressure can be applied and dissipate just as fast.

This is where MBL and I noted that Amb seems to show annoyance with gameplay he considers to be "stupid" in general.

Incidentally, I cannot think of a sane reason for scum to target Fritzler on account that even when he is town he inadvertently helps the mafia consistently.

Here is the first indicator of SK/Vig. Amb tells the town that he doesn't think scum would target Fritzler specifically because Fritzler can inadvertantly help scum. This is the perfect crumb for anybody wanting to claim forced Vig: "I was forced to kill somebody, so may as well be somebody who could screw up the game for the town". Amb is killing somebody he thinks has a stupid playstyle which is harmful to the town.

The above posts were arguing over Vig/Mafia/SK etc, and I was more alluding to the fact that its too early to base decisions on the death. I don't like spelling things out in posts because if I am right in any piece of reasoning then others should be able to see it as well.

Again, Amb leaves open the possibility for Vig over SK.

2. There is no guarantee the game is going to carry on in its present state. I don't want to see it abandoned, but

the quality of play needs to go up.

Another indicator that Amb is willing to off people who do not have a "high quality" of play. Coron/DGB had added pretty much

nothing

to the game, except to repeat (without any substantive reason) that "we should lynch GlorkOs". Another playstyle which can be harmful to the town, and therefore, another useless player offed in the night.

And of course, the third player to hit the dust was,

again

, Fritzler. It has already been made clear that Amb considers Fritz a liability to the town, which again meshes with my theory that Amb is the type of Vig who would willingly off players he considers to be useless or detrimental.

A vig claim would guarantee any "vig's" death overnight, unless you want someone to claim doctor as well? So I agree with PJ and whoever it was that said the vig should only claim if being voted. Forced or not, I would imagine a vig would be upset about hitting 2 cops randomly, whereas an SK would be rather happy.

I imagine this was said because it is true: either Amb is just really unlucky with nightkills, or he is SK. I can honestly see both, given the game.

* Because 3 is too small and unlikely, and 5 would mean 3 alive now and the game is only at day because

they have to find the other killer.

In which case its going to be a no lynch or a townie lynch anyways.

Again, specifically avoiding mentioning a SK directly.

2 Mafia

1 Other killer

2 Cult
1 Town

Yet another indicator that Amb believes we are not necessarily dealing with a SK. The spec/kleb kill could still make sense from a forced Vig perspective, since it was incredibly likely that the remaining mafiate(s) would target spec/kleb whether or not they thought spec/kleb were Cult, simply because two scum had already been caught by them. By additionally targeting spec/kleb, Amb would assure that the town did not get any smaller than it had to now that we were visibly approaching endgame.

And yes, for those wondering, this is why MBL and I have been so back and forth on the possibility of a forced Vig v SK. We have been wondering about who would make those particular nightkills since about N2, and we decided that Amb was the likeliest person (although since we considered him as a possible Vig, we did

not

want to draw the mafias attention to this fact: the town has a much higher chance of winning if a Vig/SK is left alive to kill scum during the night).

[petroleumjelly]

^ The above should obviously read SK/Vig: Amb.

[Zindaras]

Where do you get that impression? I believe we have already caught CES-scum, and I'm the person who has been calling for people to slow down instead of lynching as quickly as possible. I think (although MBL disagreed with me the other night) that if we can nail a second scum today, the town could potentially get scum to crosskill each other, which is precisely what I think we are going to need in this game.

My gut's telling me it. I d'no, you're just feeling very much off to me.

If CES is not Cult, then Zindaras almost

definitely

is. Zindaras pushed a

very

bad agenda today, one which would drastically help a Cult (by trying to lynch players with killing abilities: anybody should realize that the town is

going

to need a crosskill or two in order to win this game).

As I said, my experiences with Cults is wholly different. I felt that there was only a small chance of there being two Cultists.

Further, if CES is not Cult, that is pretty much the only person Zindaras has even considered to be Cult and has pushed on the entire day (while even most recently stating that he does not have a case).

I don't need a case to be right. Case in point: Glork.

At the end of his latest post, he throws on Lowell as being a possible Cultist even though directly above that he talks about the possibility of Lowell being "cleared" if his question was serious.

Cessy: Can't be second Cult, as he's the first one.
You: Can't be second Cult, for obvious reasons.
Me: I know I'm not Cult, but for the curious ones. I don't think that voidybuns would've cultivated me last night. I would gamble that she thinks I'm scum of some sort, or, at the very least, completely not interested in the game.
TSS/Nightson: Huge lurking scum of doom.
Amb: One of the few players who actually seem to be consistently posting.

I think Amb would be the best Cult target. If you're dropping Amb, that leaves Nightson or Lowell as second Cultist, which means that either of them would be Cult. In that case, I would be more inclined to think that Lowell is Cult. In the post, I clearly state that Lowell is cleared if and only if the question was asked truthfully, which we obvobv do not know.

[Zindaras]

Also, the above is assuming that there are two Cultists, which we don't know, obviously.

[Lowell]

Lowell, how about instead of us telling

you

whether or not you should do something, you actually read the game and decide for yourself? You've been playing in this game long enough that you should know what's going on by now.

For example, who do you think is mafia (since you leave this completely open in your post)?

Well there's my problem. I'm not sure if I know of any good way to determine the difference between "mafia" and "cult". It might as well be two mafias to me. I can read back to D1 and see if anyone, say, looked town then but not now. And that's not so precise.

The best thing I can do right now IS to ask these kind of questions. I need to see who I can connect to who, as weak a tactic as you may think that is. There is an SK, at least one mafia, and at least one cultist out there. That leaves, as best as I can tell (and others agree) at most one more townie. So, yeah, who is attacking who DOES make a difference to me.

There are five other players in this game, and together they constitute 3 distinct opposing factions... so, yeah, I suspect you all. We're past the point where we need to pretend that "getting bad guys" is the goal of the game. I need, as best as possible, to figure out exactly WHO is on WHAT SIDE.

Here's what I have:

I think that CES is guilty... of something. Some seem to say he's cult, which sounds fine with me since I can't tell the difference anyway.

PJ/MBL are the SK. I'm guessing all the "serious chats" between you are about how to proceed as you try to work out a way to endgame us all and pull off the upset. Whatever. The town clearly needs you for now to have any chance.

Zind, I guess I think he's cult. Just because. He seems different in this game than in others I've played, and that's as good a reason as any for me at this point. I don't know that there are many "tells" a converted cultist is going to give off.

Nightson and Amb. I don't really have much of an opinion on either. Other than to say I agree that one of them is town and the other isn't.

[Skruffs]

PJ I am curious why you wouldn't want to go for a night killer. As far as I am concerned you're defending scum. Why would scum want to cross kill at this point? Scum and mafia would rather figure out who each other is, get a townie lynched, and then kill two of the three other cult/townies during the night. At final three the remaining cult/townie decides who wins. This of course would depend on the SK and mafia either trusting in their own slickness or on relying on the other to not cut them down. PRisoner's dilemma.

CES - CES seems both flippant and eager, I think he's overconfident because he thinks the game is in the bag.
PJ - You have a nightkill.
TSS - nothing really to go off of yet, but i'm not discrediting him.
AMb - Amb just kinda goes with the flow, which is pretty protown, I guess, but it also means their cards have stayed hidden. There's nothing wrong with what they did D1, however, if i were to assign something, i would say, cultist.
Spron/Low - Sprontalic's been FOSing and voting almost entirely townies the entire game. the townies have a tendency of dying afterwards (with an exception or two). Wether he is pointing them out accidentally or not is up to everyone else to decide. I also don't trust such a blatant claim as mentioned earlier. You guys are discrediting him by saying 'ha ha oh he had to ask how cults work ha ha" if he was really worried if he had been recruited wouldn't he have asked about it the day before when everyone was bringing it up for the first time (And when the cult recruiter had actually had their chances to recruit)
Me/Zindaras - Pure, fresh, untainted, 100% townie flesh.
If I were to place : PJ (sk) CES + Spron (mafia) everyone else, townie. There's nothing really saying that the cult recruited every night, if at all, and if they tried to recruit scum, they'd be unsuccessful. Looking at who the recruiter voted for after each night would be useful.

[Zindaras]

Zind, I guess I think he's cult. Just because. He seems different in this game than in others I've played, and that's as good a reason as any for me at this point. I don't know that there are many "tells" a converted cultist is going to give off.

Dude, you've played in one other game with me, and that one's still running and I'm still alive in it.

Unless you're counting, I do believe, Mini 308, in which I got shot Night 1 and in which you, if my memory's serving me well, replaced way after.

Also, *hits Skruffs with a newspaper*

Bad Skruffs! You're supposed to be right, silly! There has to be at least 1 Cultist, or Voidybuns would've claimed investigative role from the get-go.

[Zindaras]

EBWOP: And there's only supposed to be one Mafiate, too. 4 Mafiates, a Cult and a Serial Killer would be borked in this game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

PJ I am curious why you wouldn't want to go for a night killer. As far as I am concerned you're defending scum. Why would scum want to cross kill at this point? Scum and mafia would rather figure out who each other is, get a townie lynched, and then kill two of the three other cult/townies during the night. At final three the remaining cult/townie decides who wins. This of course would depend on the SK and mafia either trusting in their own slickness or on relying on the other to not cut them down. PRisoner's dilemma.

The town can't win without crosskills. The remaining mafiaso want to crosskill, because the other killer is at least as big a threat to it as the town is. That's how it goes.

CES - CES seems both flippant and eager, I think he's overconfident because he thinks the game is in the bag.

Clearly, despite being at lynch -1, I think the game's in the bag. Clearly.

[Skruffs]

I don't follow. *eats newspaper*
I'm not saying there isn't a cultist. There is in all likelihood one, but I think the scum are trying to get the townies to turn on each other.
It's possible the SK is actually a vig. That is a pro town role. It's possible that there are two cultists. It's also possible SV didin't get any recruits and was waiting until she had something to defend (someone to back her up) before she claimed a cop. Three failed attempts would be discouraging. Why bring attention to yourself when you have nobody on your side.
I love SV but in the game I just played with her, she was scum with me, and she was fairly conservative.
She was *supposed* to claim cop as mafia but never did, and after the game faltered for a week or two, i took the reins and claimed it instead. Point is, I'm not going to cut off my nose because I'm afraid it has a booger in it. pro townerse (and cultists, if any) should all want the mafia gone, that's the only Certified threat we are facing.

My other point is that there are either two, three, or four 'alignments' in this game. def. townie and mafia, and possibly sk or cult. Nobody has a majority if there is an SK and cult.