Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Patrick]

Vote: Thesp

Claim or die.

[Patrick]

What's happening here? Glork normally busses his scumbuddies, not defends.

[Patrick]

A mysterious suggestion. I'm sure the game will get under way just as every other game does.

[Patrick]

Patrick is town, Glork's scum. It's fairly obvious already.

:Goodposting obv:
AndrewS is leet right? I don't think his suggestion makes it more likely he's scum. I doubt he would seriously expect to convince us all to go no lynch, especially when we don't even have an even number.

[Patrick]

If you agree with MBL's assessment of the game thus far, why are you not voting me?

Any post that says I'm town is a goodposting I don't have any reason to suspect you.

[Patrick]

I'm still just pretty much neutral on Andrew. I don't see particularly what benefit he could have hoped to gain from doing this as a 'scummy gambit'. It's not like we would be persuaded to no lynch. In a town full of new players maybe, but not here.

[Patrick]

The way the wagon built up, I'd be more inclined towards thinking Andrew is town. I'm still unsure as to what sort of benefit Andrew would be gaining by suggesting no lynch if he were scum. Can one of his attackers explain this to me please.

[Patrick]

I think the ppl who just shouted Wifom are suspect. Like Ether, there are several ppl I could vote.

[Patrick]

If it was serious, then can you explain why you think it would help?

[Patrick]

As would lynching someone and going to night.

[Patrick]

The way the wagon built up, I'd be more inclined towards thinking Andrew is town. I'm still unsure as to what sort of benefit Andrew would be gaining by suggesting no lynch if he were scum. Can one of his attackers explain this to me please.

You don't think that this town would be good enough to see some crap logic and jump on it?
Even though we're unsure of the setup, scum do get a free kill with next to no discussion if we just... no lynch.

I don't really understand what you're saying here. I said that obviously Andrew wouldn't be able to persuade the town to no lynch because it's a bad idea.

[Patrick]

He knows that now. He didn't know that when he proposed it. How does this make him more town? Same with the speed of the wagon. How does that make him more town?

Andrew knows the ppl he is playing with, and he is semi experienced. I doubt he thought he could push a no lynch agenda through. As for the wagon, I made it clear that I thought there was oppotunistic scum on it. It felt more like going for an easy lynch than bussing a scumbuddy.

[Patrick]

I'm not really feeling the CES wagon.

Unvote, Vote: IH

He just seems to be cruising along too easily on this AndrewS thing, and I don't like his reasons. I don't see much curiosity from him. Also, the sucking up to Thesp... I've seen that before.

I actually see the attack of both Andrew's and Glork's bandwagoners as more opportunistic than the actual bandwagoning. We have to start somewhere and voting someone suggesting a no lynch on day 1 is pretty standard.

This caught my interest. Are you saying that Andrew bandwagoners have made themselves into easy targets for oppotunistic scum? Are you going to look at IH's play with a straight face and tell me that he isn't oppotunistic scum? >_>

[Patrick]

That's quite a change of tune from your last post.

[Patrick]

I still maintain that with this being invitational only,

Andrew didn't know how a nolynch suggestion would go.

I mostly believe this because of the scummy defense which... doesn't look to good for him.

I suppose this is where the disagreement appears.

I will say that I haven't cared much for some of the reasons and justifications he has provided, but I don't particularly feel like lynching him right now, and am quite happy to look at ppl on his wagon.

Mind going into more detail on your comment about MGM?

[Patrick]

Mod

whenever you get back can you prod MBL for us please?
I agree with what Thesp said about Nightfalls last post. I could see a link between the two of them because Nightfall attacks him on several points then only FoSes him, then votes Ether. Misrepresents her too. Looking at Ether's last post I didn't get the vibe of "AndrewS can do no wrong".

[Patrick]

Ok. To comment on some of the ppl around this AndrewS wagon, I've found IH to be suspect because I thought he had bad reasons to be voting Andrew and was sucking up tp Thesp. Thesp himself seems to be playing as he normally does, and I imagine if he had sole control of today's lynch, AndrewS would have been dead around page 4. I liked MBL's observation on Thesp's play so far, he put into words nicely what I was thinking. I don't suspect Thesp right now.

I thought spectrumvoid made a strange flip flop, changing her mind from thinking that scum are crawling all over Andrew to then apparently suspecting him. The fact that Thesp provided a link to where one guy who was scum suggested no lynch doesn't seem especially relevant. At least IMO, I'm not arguing that scum would never do it, just that I don't think we have enough to justify lynching Andrew over it and I think there is plenty of other stuff to look at too. I think it's odd to suggest that Andrew as scum would suggest no lynch on the basis that he thought everyone would assume he must be innocent, maybe that's just me.

MgM has said some strange things. One that caught my eye was

AndrewS and Glork made a bad suggestion. Whether they meant it is irrelevant. Suggesting it is scummy, following through on it by making the vote is scummier.

Which seems like a very rigid policy which he adopts without applying much context. I get the feeling if I voted for no lynch right now he would consider me quite as scummy as those two. Also I found it a strange suggestion that he thought AndrewS bandwagoners are being attacked by oppotunistic scum.

I don't really understand the Ether hate, and I would quite like Glork to explain his last vote.

[Patrick]

That's not really Wifom, it's making a judgement on what we think scum are more likely to do, which is the game.

[Patrick]

He's picked out four ppl as scum now; AndrewS, CDB, Nightfall and MBL.

[Patrick]

He recommended Nightfall follow CDB's lead and bus AndrewS. To me that implies he thinks Nightfall is scum.

[Patrick]

Patrick: Needs to post more. What he's posted makes sense.

I find it curious that you would make a point of saying this about me in particular. Alot of ppl have posted less than me, you included.

[Patrick]

Ok. So do we kill them in alphabetical order?

[Patrick]

Some of them are, I just found it strange that you picked me out when that is true of most ppl (including you again).

[Patrick]

Your perception of me is skewed

[Patrick]

I for one still think there is at least one scum between Ether and AndrewS.

Any particular reason for this dilemna?

[Patrick]

I humbly apologise for any discrepancy and hope that Nightfall and any other players who took offence will forgive me.

[Patrick]

That doesn't make it less scummy, Patrick.

I hope you're joking. I expect IH to nitpick semantics. Not you though.

[Patrick]

Ah. So you didn't see the sarcasm. I'll try and be dripping in it next time eh.

[Patrick]

Deadline: Friday 9th February 1600 GMT.

This is highly suspect, and makes me think the mod is mafia. It looks like there's little choice but to vote for one of the leaders, since nobody seems interested in killing IH. I'll read over today and vote for one.

[Patrick]

Reason?

[Patrick]

I tend to be more realistic now, and don't see IH being lynched in 3 days (although the deadline is gone now). I mean sure it's realistic timewise if a load of ppl switched their votes, but it seems that few ppl are interested in lynching IH, despite what I consider to be scummy play on his part.

I do have another theory, which involves MBL and Andrew as scumbuddies. I had been going to ask Thesp why he had accused MBL of being scum, but instead decided to look back at the only substantial post MBL had made at the time, to see if there was anything in it. I noticed MBL linked several ppl to Andrew, while suggesting MgM as an alternative, bringing a load of others into the spotlight, while praising two players (myself and Ether) who have been somewhat defending Andrew. Also keeps a fairly noncommital stance on Andrew himself. Don't think it's strong enough to make a definite link, but Thesp always comes across as very sure of himself anyway.

[Patrick]

This is a fallacy. A "good" player doesn't limit lynch discussion to one or two players far from the deadline. Thre's nothing realistic about giving the town less info to work with by narrowing the discussion.

Far from deadline? 3 days? I take the general point, it was rather limiting, and I'll try to keep the 100 mph mafia/Lights Out mafia thinking out of this game.

I think everyone should take a stand on Andrew's silliness today. I think there'll be town on both sides of one issue (WIFOM issue) and unanimous on the other (suicidal tendencies issue). I think catching scumpartners of Andrew would have to be done by analyzing nuances, not their actual net stance on "Andrew".

Pretty sure this is wrong. I've seen scum get caught by being unusually lenient or even unusually harsh towards a scumbuddy. As for the rest of it, what you did in that post would be fairly consistent with having a scumlink with Andrew.

[Patrick]

....unvote, vote:SV

= | I'd rather lynch Mgm by the way.

-2. Claim.

IH, please explain to me what you think the case against spectrumvoid is.

[Patrick]

Deadline's not until the 13th. Now still, I'm asking IH to tell me what he though the case against spectrumvoid was, given that he put her at -2 and told her to claim. If we're talking non contribution, there's a bunch of other ppl who also fall under that category.

[Patrick]

I don't think AndrewS is particularly scummy. I don't even necessarily think that his wagoners were scum, as I would have been very surprised to see him actually get lynched based on the NL suggestion. Slap-on-the-wrist and an overall IGMEOY feeling is about what I expected. And, to be frank, that's more or less what happened.

Why have you just voted him if you don't think he's very suspicious?

Spectrumvoid, I think it's clearly better to reveal your target today. Say you target the mafia GF, who is think is nightkill immune, and say you get killed overnight. If you didn't tell us your target, we gained nothing. If you did tell us your target, we would know you targetted a person and it failed. It's not as if the scum have some ability to roleblock you or protect their own anyway.

[Patrick]

And obviously if she was scum and there was a real vig, the real vig wouldn't kill tonight for that very reason.

You know there could be 3 vigs in this game right? But I believe the claim. It doesn't sound like a scum's fakeclaim.

FoS Glork

[Patrick]

If she were to announce that she's vigging a scum, it's possible that they'd hit her in a vain hope that their choice is entered before her

Would that negate her kill? I've never heard of it working like that. I think telling us the vig target now is definitely optimal, it's similar to allowing us a second lynch. And as CES said, it avoids possible other vigs or cops hitting the same target as spectrumvoid.

[Patrick]

Patrick, I'm pretty sure that the MAIN reason that there was an sv wagon was for the dice.

I'm pretty sure I was on the wagon to give sufficient time for another one to form and give us a lynch before deadline. Would you still like me to go through her posts, and put together a case? If not, I'll go back to working on MGM.

I still find this worrying. On a dice roll you go along and ask someone to claim. It seems strange that you'd be 'putting together' a case only after she's virtually confirmed. I would have thought you need a case before you vote.

[Patrick]

Right, so you jumped on it based on a dice roll and to make the deadline yes?

...Glork, why couldn't your dice have said MGscuM? = |

SV is scummy, but I still don't like Glork's diceyness.

Please tell me what you found scummy about spectrumvoid at that point.

Other than this though, it is just kind of a vibe. As explained before, I didn't like the reasons you used to jump onto the Andrew wagon. You sucked up to Thesp, then when I called you on it you immediately did a IGMEOY for Thesp

igmeoy:Thesp... Even though you're strongly supporting an Andrew lynch, I don't like how you're kind of... turning it into something else.

Which is really vague. I'm not sure what you meant by this. It felt like you did that just to immediately satisfy me that you weren't in fact sucking up to him.

I think there's a fair case for vigging you if we don't actually lynch you.

[Patrick]

A mysterious suggestion. I'm sure the game will get under way just as every other game does.

Patrick answered with this. Not quite sure what he meant by it...

This is not a hard post to understand. He said that he thought the game wasn't really getting anywhere. I said that the game will get under way just as any other would. And that a no lynch suggestion is mysterious.

I'm still just pretty much neutral on Andrew. I don't see particularly what benefit he could have hoped to gain from doing this as a 'scummy gambit'. It's not like we would be persuaded to no lynch. In a town full of new players maybe, but not here.

The benefits for Andrew.
1.Town takes him up on it. no lynch.
2.Town doesn't take him up on it. Some find him scummy, others call them scummy, he's credited for "starting discussion"

Even worse is if he is scum, he'd have had a chance to converse with his buddies. If they came to what at least SOME of the town would do (vote Andrew), is it not implausible that they could have already come up with a way to throw suspicion on someone else?

1. is not true. As has been explained multiple times, the town would never go for a no lynch. Never. Zero chance.
How is number 2 a benefit for Andrew? Some ppl find his suggestion silly, some jump and vote for him. Is that what you call a good start for him if he's scum? I don't think anyone actually said that as a result of his suggestion he looks more pro town. He managed to attract a whole load of bad attention to himself.

Patrick I never understood why you thought Andrew was more town because of the way the wagon built up.

You've never looked at a wagon and decided it was scum propelled? I'm less sure about it now, doesn't mean I have to like the wagon though.

Did you not understand the Wifom Logical fallacy that was pointed out? Why did you think they were suspect for voting based on a nolynch/WIFOM fallacy tell?

I also didn't like some of the defences he used. I'm uncertain how strong a tell the fallacy there is. The no lynch suggestion didn't so much for me as I said before. As for the ppl who just said wifom, it felt like an easy autopilto way to hop onto the train with little effort and little looking into his intentions.

I don't really understand what you're saying here. I said that obviously Andrew wouldn't be able to persuade the town to no lynch because it's a bad idea.

I seriously think there's some kind of fallacy in here. It's just like.... you don't see any case on Andrew, because of the way his wagon built up and he couldn't be able to persuade the town to no lynch, so it's just as good as if he didn't....

Not that I don't see anything at all against Andrew, just that the wagon seemed to get excessive. As for suggesting no lynch, it's not just the same as if he didn't. It's provided us with the bulk of our discussion today. It's shown Andrew using some dodgy defences. It's shown us who wagons and give reasons, and who just wagons. And it's shown us who sits on the side. Before you say this, no I'm not saying he looks more pro town just for founding most of this discussion.

CES says he only had 400 something posts. Going with a long Hiatus from who knows how long, and I don't know, but I'm pretty sure I've never played with him before the last month or so...

Also, if you'll notice, Patrick apparently doesn't think that any town were on the Andrew wagon. His two options are Opportunistic scum and Bussing. What about Town hopping on?

True he's been away for ages. But he knows it's an invitational. Invitational = decent players who would not follow a crap strategy of no lynching on day 1.
As for your second point, I'm fairly sure there has to be some town on the wagon, at different points. Since there's only 3 scum, that's pretty obvious. And if Andrew is scum himself, there could only be 2 scum on it max.

I was sucking up to Thesp... for agreeing with his reasoning? Bullshit. There's not much curiosity to be had when I see something scummy my friend. Sorry that I'm "opportunistic scum" for voting for/going after someone who is scummy to me.

I've seen you do it as scum. It's not impossible by any stretch. Obviously it's a the manner in which you did it, not just that you agreed with his reasoning. And after being called on it, you gave him a really pointless igmeoy.

Mod whenever you get back can you prod MBL for us please?
I agree with what Thesp said about Nightfalls last post. I could see a link between the two of them because Nightfall attacks him on several points then only FoSes him, then votes Ether. Misrepresents her too. Looking at Ether's last post I didn't get the vibe of "AndrewS can do no wrong".

err..... how couldn't you?

Because in that post she critisises some of the things he did.

I feel slightly better about you after seeing you actually backing up your thinking more, though I disagree with much of it.

[Patrick]

I've read MgM's posts and some of the accusations against him. He's made some odd posts, and hasn't paid attention at times. As I noted before his attack on Glork was strange and felt like he was sticking to a rigid policy of just voting anyone suggesting no lynch. I don't know, there seems to be less going against him that I had first thought. I'm not sure I find him any worse than ppl like Adele or CDB. I'm unsure of how much weight to put into the apparent slip pointed out by MBL, where he apparently assumes the township of Glork and Andrew. I used to think these tells were reliable, but in some games I've seen pro town players make them, just by wording awkwardly.

CDB has hardly said anything all game and what he has said is not that insightful. Adele also hasn't done too much. She voted AndrewS, then jumped off the wagon with a few critisisms of him, then voted spectrumvoid with no reason given, then suggests a suboptimal vigging strategy. I'm fairly underwhelmed.

[Patrick]

Vote: Glork

[Patrick]

My main reason for voting Glork is that he's been unhelpful all game. He's provided relatively little content, and made bandwagony votes the whole time, either without reason or for wishy washy reasons. His stance on Andrew was inconsistent, at times voting him and saying he was a good lynch, then saying that actually Andrew isn't that scummy at all, then voting him to wagon the crap out of him.

He started the spectrumvoid wagon apparently based on a die roll. If it was a joke wagon, I think it had no place at that point in the game. A joke that leads to the outing and subsequent loss of a vig isn't funny in any way that I can see. If it wasn't a joke wagon, I still am unsure what the case against her was. A load of ppl seemed to hop on and ppl were just saying "SV is scummy" and nothing else. She wasn't a strong contributor, but then again I could say that for alot of ppl. I didn't like that wagon. Basically, Glork hasn't really done anything that I might expect from pro town Glork, or pro town anyone for that matter. I don't see what benefit his play has brought to the town.

I have no good vibes from Adele either, who just seems to be existing, and not much more.

[Patrick]

Interesting response.
I don't mind your hammer of Andrew. I would likely have done it myself to secure a lynch, rather than no lynching.
One thing I don't like still, however, was your vote for Andrew in post 349. That was the one I questioned, to which you replied "I want to wagon the living crap out of him". This vote came shortly after you had said that you didn't find Andrew scummy. At that time, I think the deadline was in 5 days. So there was no real reason to narrow down the lynch that early, especially after you critisised me for doing something similar earlier, a mere 3 days before a deadline.

EDIT: Actually, I just found something that I really don't like about Thesp. His "This day has gone on waaaaaaaaay too long" comment (Post 256) came a mere nine days after the start of Day One (Fri, Jan 26 to Sun, Feb 04). Thesp, would you mind explaining why you think slightly over a week makes a day that's "way too long"? FoS: Thesp for real now.

Hmm. I'm mildly surprised to see this from you. You've surely played with Thesp alot more than me, and know his playstyle well. I've seen him say similar things in several games, even when it's far too early to be ending a day. I tend to see Thesp as someone who decides on a scum or two, and then stubbornly won't shift for ages, while repeating over and over than that person obviously needs to be killed ASAP. Sometimes he hits, sometimes he misses. I don't agree with his philosophy on day lengths, but I've seen it from him before as town.

[Patrick]

For someone who tells Patrick to read between the lines you do preciously little of it yourself. I didn't tell SV to claim because I suspected him, I did it because I hoped it would derail his bandwagon so a few quick vote changes near the deadline wouldn't put him on the chopping block instead of Andrew.

I agree this looks dodgy though.

[Patrick]

Weird. I though the whole 'Thespwagon' thing was a joke. I don't get how MBL thinks a load of ppl were planning on getting a claim out of Thesp, because of an early wagon that was based on nothing. When looking at the game, I have to admit I didn't give it a second thought. As I saw it, the game pretty much started with Andrew's little stunt.
@Glork, sorry I assumed you'd played millions of games with Thesp for some reason.

[Patrick]

I too have been slacking. Too much work tonight, back into action tomorrow.

[Patrick]

Damn Damn Damn.

I lost the entire post that I spent ages writing. I'll try to redo it as accurately as possible:
Let's get this deadline retracted. Here are my thoughts on every player, in alpabetical order.

Adele: I like the new avatar. Old one was decent too though. I still lean more towards scum than town. On day 1 she didn't do much, and I didn't like the hop on the voidybunns wagon. She's made one or two decent observations today, after being called out on it. Her last post was strange. I still feel as though sometimes she posts just to appear to be contributing.

ChannelDelibird: Seems more like a spectator than a player. I was going to suggest replacing him, but he just made a post before me. I don't find his post very inspiring though. He hasn't come up with much original content. I'll have to metagame him a bit, as we have little playhistory.

CES: I admit I'm partially relying on others who know him better. Seems bandwagonish. Voted Andrew and voted spectrumvoid, didn't really say why. Not sure how he might play as scum.

Ether: An interesting one. I agreed with most of her day 1 stances. However one or two ppl have posted some things that made me go back and look at her posts again. She somehow managed to put up a strong defence of Andrew while leaving some openings to change her mind. I thought the use of the word loathe was curious. I don't have a problem with what she said about Glork's FoS of IH because I agreed with it. I though IH was sucking up to Thesp, then quickly tried to look like he wasn't sucking up by expressing a really crap suspicion of Thesp. I did find Ether's Nightfall vote strange though. It seemed like she went out of her way to not vote Andrew, and only wanted to be associated with his lynch if she was hammering him to make a deadline. She needs to post today. I think she's on vacation though.

Fritzler: Not sure what to say about him. I noted that he defended Andrew very early on, "Andrew is not the play" then seemingly randomly attacked SV then later decided he was happy to vote Andrew afterall.

Glork: I didn't like his play on day 1. Today he's got his act together. I liked some of the analysis he's done and thing's he's said, they gave me a pro town vibe. Still one or two inconsistencies stick out, mainly the vote on Andrew that I mentioned, for which he has no explanation.

Unvote

though, I don't find him the scummiest.

MgM: I think the day 1 case against him was overstated. However, the defences he's used today for asking spectrumvoid to claim set off alarm bells with me. If you think someone is a powerole, you step up to defend them if needed. I am struggling to reconcile what MgM did with a pro town mindset. Interesting is how Adele said "Someone owes someone an apology, which seemed to be a way of avoiding taking a side. Last thing on Mgm is that his vote for Glork in post 465 felt strangely oppotunistic. More likely than average to be scum.

MBL: Has made some useful observations/analysis. I liked his thoughts on Thesp's playstyle. The only strange thing to me is the overemphasis on the early Thespwagon, which seemed to me nearly irrelevant. I don't think it was part of any special programme.

Nightfall: Earlier in the game I would have lumped him in with the non contributors. Since then he's said some things. I didn't much agree with the hammering down on AndrewS but I don't find Nightfall very scummy. His reasons for absence seemed genuine to me.

Thesp: Interesting. Took almost sadistic pleasure in taking apart some of Andrew's arguments yesterday. Never let up once. I disagree with his philosophy of just lynching the first guy you find scummy really quickly, but I've seen it before so I can't say it's surprising. What I haven't seen before from him, is the relative lameness of his day 2 suspicions. I agree that he seems to be laying low after spearheading the Andrew lynch yesterday.

Zindaras: Interesting also. I still found it strange that he suggested I was laying low on day 1 when he hadn't done much. Heavily attacked spectrumvoid on day 1, still not too sure why. I can actually agree with Thesp that something feels not quite right. It feels odd to accuse him of flying under the radar because he's made quite a few posts, but that's the feeling I get so I'm saying it anyway.

[Patrick]

Also to add: I find Adele to be scummiest, though there are several others up there. I will

Vote: Adele.

This is actually an interesting game when I take a closer look at it.

[Patrick]

I asked if it was scummy. As you can see I still haven't moved my vote from you, so thinking I was appealing for a bandwagon appears a bit premature. Sometimes asking for info doesn't mean the person asking the question has ulterior motives.

The fact that you haven't moved your vote doesn't matter. The point being made is that you were sort of testing the waters, seeing if there was any momentum in the direction of CDB. I think it's possible that CDB is just being used as the scum patsy here.

[Patrick]

That's quite a strange sort of a defence. Obviously we don't know whether or not you were, but the wording and timing suggests it. This isn't a game of certainties.

[Patrick]

I would just like to say that this is my 2000th post on the site yay, and that I do buy the case against Mgm. I could see an Mgm/Adele team, with maybe Thesp as the third.

[Patrick]

Thinking about it, I think I'll

Unvote, Vote: MgM

because I really don't like his recent responses. I'm still pretty suspicious of Adele and Thesp though.

[Patrick]

I worded it that way just because of Thesp saying he didn't buy the case against Mgm. Your last post makes it sound as though I've never had any suspicions of Mgm before making that post.

[Patrick]

See I think that both mgm and Adele have acted pretty scummy, but I could see them as scumbuddies. They don't address each other much, or express any suspicion of each other, and Adele keeps slipping in small defences of MgM. Like in post 318, where she makes MgM's attack on Glork seem more reasonable by saying that she actually wasn't sure whether Glork was serious either. Post 444 disagrees with the mgm 'bandwagon' of one vote. And I still don't like the last line of post 477 which seemed like another way of not taking a side.

Thesp I could possibly see as being scum with those two, though I'm unsure whether all 3 scum would have hammered down on AndrewS yesterday. Thesp's suspicions today are fairly weak, and it feels like he's going mainly after lurkers/sideliners. If that is the case, I don't know quite why he hasn't found Adele suspicious, who seems to be playing a fairly classic scum game of avoiding controversy.

As for my reasons for suspecting MgM. The first paragraph you quoted from me was a fair summing up of my feeling on him day 1. I did say he had made some odd posts/not paid attention, but you're quite right, those are not very strong things, which is why I wasn't especially suspicious of him day 1. I confirmed that in the first line of my second paragraph. Today however is a different story. I immediately took a disliking to the defence he used when Glork accused him of fishing towards spectrumvoid's role. This is mainly his posts 37, 38 and 40. As I said in my long post, I have trouble seeing how a pro towner could think in that way. If you suspect someone is a powerole, it seems obvious that you don't ask them to claim. Mgm said that he didn't fancy trying to defend spectrumvoid because "with a deadline looming that's not really the best option". I call BS on this. He suggested she claim on 7th. The deadline was on the 13th. 6 days is ample time to defend someone, and bring about a change. I feel that he probably wanted the best of both worlds for scum: a claim out of her, then a lynch on AndrewS. As I also said in my long post, I didn't much like the vote on Glork from him in his 38th post, which felt both OMGUSy and oppotunistic given that Glork had already picked up some early suspicion at the start of the day.

The other thing I don't like, though it's not as severe, is the defence he's been using in his recent posts. He made a post which is slightly scummy, and when called out on it, he seems to being saying that because we can't prove that he was testing the waters with CDB, that means that it's irrelevant. Obviously I can't read his mind to know for certain, but that is a really craplogical defence I feel. If his defence was acceptable, you could surely apply it to anything someone does wrong. Like take what you just accused me of - You say that I'm trying to shuffle onto the mgm wagon without being noticed. It would stupid for me to say, "That means nothing because you can't prove whether I was trying to do that or not." It's not a game of certainties, and we go off how things come accross, feel, look etc.

So yeah, I could see Adele and mgm as scum together, with maybe Thesp too.

[Patrick]

They are both scummy individually, but I could also see them as scumbuddies.

[Patrick]

Ok, to comment a bit on your post:

This is interesting. And very strange.

Glork thinks MGM, Thesp, Ether, Adele, possibly CDB are scummy.
Thesp finds CDB scummiest.
Adele supports Glork's suspicions of Ether (though I find it odd that she's not voting for anybody... any reason for the lack of a vote, Adele?)
CDB find Ether, Thesp, and Glork scummy.
MGM finds Glork, CDB scummy.
Ether is gone for a couple more days, but I think I remember her suspecting MGM yesterday.

Glork's really enjoying jumping on people (heck, see his last post for an example). He seems more wanting to find excuses for accusing people than trying to actually figure out who is scum.

I'm just wondering why you quoted that post by Glork when you made that assertion. He wasn't exactly jumping on ppl there, he gave his opinion on how the suspicions of various ppl interwine and how that leads him to believe that there might be one or two lurker scum.

So, ouch, yeah, he shouldn't be calling on Occam's Razor in mafia. That's a... logical error. (um, insert MBL's laughter here?)
But anyway. The question - did Mgm do anything directly or indirectly to contribute to a CDB lynch - is relevant. The fact that there are indirect tactics at play in Mafia's not the point - the question as to whether Glork can point to some indirect machinations or simply hallucinated this relationship is. At any rate, I trust Mgm at this time.

Now you're running this same defence for Mgm too. I find it hard to understand. Mgm made a post right. It put out some feelers for a possible CDB lynch, by seeing whether there would be some momentum in that direction. He committed himself to precisely nothing in that direction. So no, it hasn't really put CDB closer to a lynch, because he's not one of the biggest targets right now, but I'm not sure why that matters.

Incidentally, I'd like to know why you're suspicious of me, especially given that you've just critisised someone for not explaining his suspicions about you.

[Patrick]

Hmm. The deadline hits in less than 3 days.

Mod

can we get that extended please in light of the pick up in discussion? Cheers.

[Patrick]

(I think Mgm is no more likely to be scum than anyone else based on past experiences.)

On past experiences? He always plays like this?

[Patrick]

First off, I didn't actually say "suspicious", but that you were one of the people I'm watching; it's really more igmeoy than FOS. I disagree on so many counts of who you say you trust and distrust, I'm inclined to look more closely at you (and others for whom the same can be said). It's just a constant trickle of your opinions being different to mine, and you pressing points that don't seem worth pressing to me.

It's probably not a coincidence that I feel the same way about you. I took it to mean suspicious because those seemed to be the strongest suspicions you had at that point.

[Patrick]

Do you think a lack of attention paid to posts is more consistent with scum?

Why not read what you actually quoted from me there? Then you'd see the answer.

[Patrick]

It wasn't terribly clear. Unless you clarify, I'll suppose the ambiguity implies that you'd prefer to leave it as either nebulous or as a null tell (as in it doesn't indicate anything). Next question: Do you think a lack of attention paid to posts is more consistent with being town?

To be clear then, I'm not pushing a case against MgM based on weird day one posts/not paying attention. As I said before, that wasn't terribly suspicious in my eyes. Some ppl argue that scum are less likely to pay attention, but I'm not sure about that. If it's a scum tell, it's a weak one at best.

[Patrick]

I've seen MBL argue it in certain games (he said something like scum are more likely to waltz through and miss nuances). I also remember IH doing a 'not paying attention' count for mgm and voting mgm so I suppose he argues it as well. I said my last post that I'm not sure about this argument.

[Patrick]

What? I said it might be a weak scum tell, but that I'm undecided and would have to judge on a case by case basis. Sometimes I see someone playing lazily in such a way that makes me think they're scum, sometimes they look like apathetic town.

FoS Thesp.

That is such a reaching argument. You're case against CDB is reaching and of roughly the same quality as your case against Andrew was. There's something not quite right about your play compared too times I've seen you as town.

[Patrick]

That's just rubbish Thesp. That extra sentence was just part of the answer. You asked me something which is really just general mafia theory, I said I think XXX but I've heard other ppl argue XXX. I think that's such a pedantic point your making. It's like we've called you out for having lame suspicions, so you started interrogating me on something which isn't even that relevant anyway, to make it seem like you're doing something useful. And at the end of it, you claim to have found a scum.

[Patrick]

Q: Do you think Professor Plum killed Mr. X?
A: Well, some people would say the bloody knife he was caught with would indicate he killed him, but I'm not sure if he killed Mr. X or not.

Seems perfectly reasonable to me.

No, it wasn't part of the answer, and it's not what I asked you. I asked, "Do you think a lack of attention paid to posts is more consistent with scum/town?" Instead of giving your thoughts, you brought in other perspectives which weren't otherwise relevant, and designed to throw suspicion onto Mgm. It's akin to this exchange:

Well no actually, I did give you my thoughts on the question you asked me. IN ADDITION, I said something about Mgm, which is hardly irrelevant since he was somebody who had been accused of making weird posts/not paying attention.

[Patrick]

Why? ChannelDelibird and Patrick are the scums.

Do you think that repeating that in every post will somehow make it true?

If Thesp is pro-town, Adele and MGM are so dying next.

On the surface this looked like a blatant attempt to setup future lynches. However, I can sort of understand. I was quite surprised when mgm and Adele both took my side in that debate and quickly went onto voting Thesp like that. It just wasn't really what I was expecting. It leaves me kind of torn, though the bandwagon gives me a better feeling than the one against Andrew yesterday did. I don't think he needs anymore votes yet until we sort out the situation with Ether.

[Patrick]

Eh maybe.. I dunno I kind of think Glork is town now.

[Patrick]

To be honest, I've been thinking a while about changing my vote to Mgm. This may happen later on. Could anyone restate the case against Mgm or tell me where to find it?

What are your reasons for finding him suspicious?

[Patrick]

I don't believe in a Thesp/Adele/Mgm scumgroup anymore.

Adele and Mgm - can you summarise all your reasons for voting Thesp for me?

[Patrick]

CES: You do realize your behavior today is identical to the D1 behavior of Thesp, the guy you're trying to get lynched.

I disagree with this assessment.

Still got me on the brain

[Patrick]

I'm voting Theps for the reason I cited in the post in which I placed the vote. If you have any questions about that, feel free to ask, but I'm not going to repeat myself when I could spend my time considering other lines of thought.

Ok, I was just wondering if there was anything else.

Patrick: On the previous page you ask Zindaras why he finds me suspicious while you are actually voting me yourself. If you find me suspicous enough to vote me, wouldn't it be logical for other people to follow suit for the same reason?

I still wanted to know what his reasons were. He claimed he had been considering moving to you for a while but then asked someone to explain to him what the case for it was. So I asked what was making him suspicious of you on the first place.

[Patrick]

That's a strange thing to say. Especially when MBL just went and asked about 5 questions to various people. I didn't see you having a problem with that. Not that there is a problem, but accusing me of asking too many questions is strange.

To explain why I've asked you and Adele for all your reasons for voting Thesp, that relates back to what I mentioned before, about being surprised at how you both seemed to jump on the Thespwagon. It looked like an easy hop, so I'm asking to see all the reasons to see if they are legit or whether they've just been quickly whipped together as an excuse to join the largest wagon in the game. As Glork said, it's nearly always a good idea to get people to give their reasons.

[Patrick]

To clear this up, Adele is right, I thought the response of the person within the analogy was valid.

[Patrick]

Q: Do you think Professor Plum killed Mr. X?
A: Well, some people would say the bloody knife he was caught with would indicate he killed him, but I'm not sure if he killed Mr. X or not.

...A's response is not scummy. Patrick, is that how you understand it? Given that, what do you think of Patrick's assessment? (I think it's patently absurd to think A's response is not scummy.)

A's response in not scummy. I think it's patently absurd to suggest it is. I feel that this is generally a distraction from finding scum.

[Patrick]

Ether - I'm not sure how you've managed to link me to Nightfall. You claim he showed a double standard between my defence of Andrew and yours, even though several other people have apparently done the same thing. That suggests that there was actually a difference, and not a double standard being applied at all.

[Patrick]

Although the discussion level is good, no new votes have been placed in the last 2 days. So I'm thinking that a deadline is probably necessary to keep the game moving again.

Unvote, Vote: Adele

Unvote, Vote: Mgm

[Patrick]

You do realize, Glrok, that a no-lynch would seriously undermine a roleblocker's usefulness? We should strive to lynch as many people as possible. Besides, Thesp is scum. Maybe Adele and Mgm are bussing him?

That's not really how the posts felt to me.
MBL - What do you think of Mgm?

[Patrick]

Patrick, you asked me about MGM, who's the current alternative to a Thespwagon. I think MGM's shown a healthy interest in a fair number of players, unlike Ether and Thesp, but has also been significantly defensive. OMGUSsy as well, though I've never seen that as a scum trait. I wouldn't add a vote to lynch MGM at this point.

I asked because you were attacking him heavily day 1, and today you've not expressed much suspicion of him at all, preferring to go after other people.
I don't know what you think I'm being unclear about. I have my suspicions of mgm and Adele, you can see I'm voting mgm. Thesp has been suspicious to, but I don't see him as scum with Adele or mgm, and the hop onto his wagon made me feel uneasy. I don't plan on switching my vote to Thesp at this point.

Ether seems to be in a minority in attacking Nightfall, and I'm still waiting to see how she justifies linking me to Nightfall.

I don't think I'm being deliberately ambiguous at all, certainly no more than anyone else.

[Patrick]

I am, however, beginning to consider the case that Patrick + one of Adele/MGM is scum and that Thesp + the other of Adele/MGM is town.

How on earth have you made this connection?

[Patrick]

I am, however, beginning to consider the case that Patrick + one of Adele/MGM is scum and that Thesp + the other of Adele/MGM is town.

/agree.

I think you're pretty full of it Zindaras. Glork has claimed that I'm connected to Adele, no reasons provided yet. You're claiming that Adele is town. So I'm assuming Mgm is the person you're connecting me to. I'd like you to explain this, preferably with something other than gut. I think it's pretty obvious that mgm and I are not scum together.

[Patrick]

Touchy, aren't we?

Yes.

Let me the change it for you then. You haven't explained why I'm scummy at all.

[Patrick]

I think you've been really Omgussy and overaggressive regarding people attacking you (specifically me).

Bullshit. I haven't been particularly aggressive in this game. OMGUSy? Which game are you reading? I firstly got attacked by MBL and Glork for thinking of voting one of the two vote leaders three days before the deadline. Did I accuse them in return? I then got attacked by Thesp, for terrible reasons. I fosed him for reasons I've explained. Do you see me voting him? Naw. It would have been easy to do, but I disliked the way two ppl hopped onto his wagon, and it makes me think he's more likely to be town. Ether has vaguely kind of attacked me by linking me to Nightfall. I've asked her for reasons why, not overaggressively or OMGUSy at all. Glork has now claimed I'm scum with Adele. I haven't attacked him for it. Now you've attacked me. Those are the main places where people have attacked me, and I don't think my responses bear out what you've been claiming at all. And yes, if people atack me for what I consider to be crap reasons, I will be touchy. I yes, you know that already. So I don't take those suspicions as very genuine at all. Please find a realistic way to attack me.

[Patrick]

Well what I don't like is that Zindaras has expressed virtually no suspicion of me so far, apart from a weird suggestion early on that I wasn't posting enough, which was both untrue and hypocritical. Then the game continues for a while. Glork comes out and says I'm scum with Adele, and then Zindaras steps out of his slimy pond and tags on an /agree to that. When I ask how he's connected me to mgm he says he hasn't. When I ask why he thinks I'm individually scummy he comes up with the lamest reasons ever, which look like he could have just made them up on the spot, and which I think are completely untrue. I really dislike that. I can't work out whether he's just being lazy, or if he's scum, or maybe lazy scum. But I have some trouble believing he's pro town and thinks I'm scum for those reasons.

[Patrick]

We don't have very much time left.

Ether, you've been lurking even more than usual in this game. Please explain the alledged double standard that Nightfall has applied, and why you've chosen to only pick him up for making the distinction that other players made as well.

Zindaras, please give examples of where I've been overaggressive and OMGUSy. I'm interested why you added that I had been like that towards particularly you since I can't really remember you even attacking me before now.

[Patrick]

Except that they haven't. These others either poked at both of us or stated reasons which suggested this difference. If my memory's halfway decent, only Nightfall doesn't really bring you up, and he was one of my few Day 1 voters.

There was a difference between the way you and I defended AndrewS. Therefore, Nightfall can't have been applying a double standard. A double standard as I understand it, only applies if someone treats two people differently when they've done the same thing. I don't off the top of my head really remember anyone saying much about the way I defended Andrew. (Though I don't have time to check right now). I remember Adele and Glork commenting on your defence on him but not mine. And IH seemed to find yours more noteworthy, or at least more scummy. So I still don't see any double standard being applied here.

I would like Glork to now explain why he thinks I am scum with Adele, now that he's back. Also

FoS Zindaras.

[Patrick]

would strongly agree with Thesp's take that, if there is more evidence to point to something (Plum being found holding the bloody knife), then you should work off of the most simple/logical conclusion (that Plum killed Mr. Boddy). As Thesp said, he exaggerated the example to prove a point, yet you still agreed with what I think is a ridiculous conclusion. As further evidence presents itself, that conclusion is subject to change, but if you see a man standing over a body holding a bloody knife you're not going to go "Nah, he didn't kill him..."

I think I'm starting to lose track of what point he was even making at the time. I still have no problem with the answer given in his example. It's not as you said it. He didn't see a man standing over a dead body with a knife, nor did he say nah he didn't kill him.. He just knows that a bloody knife was later found on Plum, but isn't sure whether or not he was the killer. A strict yes or no answer isn't required. I'm amazed at how anyone can argue the opposite.

The fact that Adele supported you and simultaneously attacked Thesp piqued my interest. Combine that with the fact that you chose to go with the MGM lynch rather than the Adele lynch, and I thought that maybe you two were giving each other preference. It seemed like a mutual player connection to me. Yes, you've called both Adele and MGM scum. However, you have stuck with MGM this entire time, and Adele backed you as you both expressed suspicions of Thesp.

Yes, Adele did back me on that point, as did several others (because he was basically full of it). Using it as a reason to vote him struck me as strange.
However, noting that I voted Mgm over Adele for a while is a fairly astute observation. I did have reasons for favouring Adele over mgm at that point which I didn't reveal. Having thought about it, I think I'll reveal them now since I was obviously wrong in an assumption. I looked at your play, and thought (wrongly it seems) that you were a cop with a guilty on Mgm. This struck me when you made post 579 if I remember rightly, with your unusual use of the word naive, and the suggestion that mgm was guilty until proven innocent in your eyes. When I looked back over your play today, everything made sense for it; the immediate mgm vote at the start, constant attacks on Mgm without letting up. Post 568, which came after I made a post saying that obviously we can't be sure what Mgm's intent was, and that mafia isn't a game of certainties, where you just said "DEFEATIST!" suggested that you were in fact certain of his intent. And then later,in the exchange with CDB when he accused you of being "too concrete than anyone can be reasonably sure of", you seemed to be hinting again that you actually

could

be that certain.

I don't mind saying this now because it seems I was wrong in that assumption. But at the time, that's what tipped it towards voting Mgm over Adele. I find them roughly equivalent now, though I'll likely switch to Adele to make the deadline.

[Patrick]

I don't feel like lynching Thesp.

Adele would likely have claimed a powerole if she was scum in that situation. It's still very risky to go lynching a claimed cop though. I'm not sure what to suggest. I'd go with lynching Zindaras, but I don't think anyone would follow me on that.

[Patrick]

Well yes, doctor did have as much chance as any other powerole of being put into the game. However, a doc would have protected spectrumvoid, since it seemed pretty obvious that she was telling the truth.

[Patrick]

Decisions. Decisions.

Looking at MBL's post 829, I agree with the first paragraph, disagree with the second.

Still not wild about a Thesp lynch, and pondering how disasterous no lynching would be with an even number. It would make a roleblocker less useful I suppose. Ether and Zindaras definitely need looking at more tomorrow. Both lurking more than usual. Zindaras feels like he's always changing his mind and then providing poor reasons for it, or just saying it's gut feeling. I don't particularly feel like he has the thought process, then changes his suspicions, more the other way round; he changes his suspicions then tags something on to justify it. It doesn't feel natural. If it wasn't obvious, I didn't like his attack on me at all, and noticed he's still not provided any examples of what he's accused me of.

I'll be around again before the deadline.

[Patrick]

Also, to clear up any confusion, no majority at deadline means no lynch.

[Patrick]

The former quote was the last time you brought up your feelings on Thesp; could you elaborate?

Mgm and Adele look more innocent now, so Thesp looks slightly worse than before. My reasons are similar to Glorks; I found the mgm/Adele hops onto the Thesp wagon weird and thought maybe oppotunistic scum. You've already summed up the rest of my feelings on Thesp fairly well. He does have this weird habit of attacking people strongly over things which seem almost irrelevant, with the false dilemna links and the prof plum thing being good examples IMO. There are other ppl I'd rather lynch than Thesp, but it doesn't seem likely that anything like that will happen.

Nightfall did not. Those reasons are complete opposites, and frankly, Adele's was better.

True, this did raise an eyebrow, and I seem to remember questioning it at the time.

I don't agree with everything Nightfall has said, not by a long shot, but I simply don't get a malicious vibe from him. I still maintain that there was no double standard.

[Patrick]

Curious. I wasn't really expecting to wake up and see a no lynch. I don't think it's too bad though.

Will read back later, but for now

Vote: Zindaras

because I was getting a bad feeling about him near the end of yesterday.

[Patrick]

Based on the fact that she told us she investigated mgm, I think she investigated mgm.

[Patrick]

Worse, Patrick's was on MGM, and Patrick checked in to discuss but chose not to move his vote. His attempt to coast past that error on his part without an apology makes him AND Thesp look a little suspect, and makes Zindy look a little less suspicious. I would expect the difficulty finishing off Thesp if there were two scum laying off his wagon end of day yesterday.

Why would I apologise for it? What error am I supposed to have made that I'm trying to coast past?

[Patrick]

I think that's an incredibly lazy assessment Mgm.

[Patrick]

You might have had doubts about Thesp's guilt that made you decide not to vote him - scummy in my eyes, but opinions differ. What's really scummy is keeping your vote on a cop-investigated player (aka me). Keeping your vote there wasn't helping in securing a scum lynch.

Vote:Patrick for not using his vote to help secure a useful lynch (any lynch other than myself).

FOS: Fritzler. I agree with MrBuddyLee that not hammering is decidedly non-Fritz-like.

This is nonsense. Are you suggesting that if I had taken my vote off you (and done nothing else with it) you would be happier about me? Yes I left my vote on you, but not because I planned on lynching you. At that point, there was no real difference between not voting, voting you, voting MBL, voting Glork, voting Nightfall, voting CES or anyone else who was never going to be lynched anyway. It was just that I wasn't sure I wanted to vote for Thesp. It's also interesting that you're not voting or FoSing Ether for this. I went to bed about 2 am (7.5 hours before deadline if I remember correctly) and I was actually expecting Ether to hammer Thesp. I'm not saying it's especially scummy than she didn't, just that I found it surprising. Please explain why you've voted me, and FoSed Fritz, yet you've said nothing about Ether and MBL. Yes, MBL could also have hammered. And now he pops up and is critisising others for not doing so.

MBL - Please explain ASAP why you're critisising people who didn't hammer Thesp, even though you didn't hammer him either. Your Ether vote was pretty useless; it's not as if she was ever going to be lynched when it was within her power to hammer Thesp.

[Patrick]

Hum. Post 150 by Patrick bothers me. Patrick asserts that he said opportunistic scum were on AndrewS's wagon (which he never made explicit, as I pointed out). Yet through this time, his vote continues to sit on Thesp -- a vote which was completely random, as it was the very first post of the game. Furthermore, Patrick never named Thesp at all... I will grant that Thesp did say "the WIFOM argument is crap," but he backed it with solid evidence of why this is true, citing an example from a game in which experienced scum did exactly what he was accusing Andrew of doing.

Ok. I think your first complaint here is nitpicking. Even if I didn't say in big red letters "There are oppotunistic scum on Andrew's wagon," I think it was pretty clear what I was thinking. I don't see it as a big deal that my vote stayed on Thesp for a while. Do you have a problem with my waiting a little and deciding where to put my vote? I observed the wagon, then decided I didn't like IH.

I wasn't particularly suspicious of Thesp at that point. As has already been noted, he always seems to play this way. I don't like his ideas about pretty much killing the first guy you become suspicious of in double quick time, but it's not scummy if he's always like that. I also generally find ppl who just hop along for the ride scummier than ppl who start attacks with actual reason.

[Patrick]

As for my own failure to hammer, I'm a conservative player and would generally prefer to no-lynch rather than hammer a good player I'm not certain enough is scum.

Same here. I'm not getting what I'm supposed to have done wrong.

My Ether vote useless? That's positively laughable and a pretty downright scummy thing for you to say, Patrick. Considering that Ether was the 2nd leading vote-getter at the time, you'd have to be implying that in general, everyone should abandon the #2 to pile on the #1 wagon at the end of a day or else their vote's useless and scummy.

I'm not implying that in general everyone should abandon a number 2 wagon near the end of the day. I said that Ether was not going to be lynched if it was within her power to hammer Thesp. Pretty simple really. I would say the chances of an Ether lynch at that stage were negligable.

Useless vote? Hugely disproportionate, reaching attack by you, Patrick. To insinuate that I lose my right to attack by not hammering OR that the various failures to hammer are equivalent in any way is bizarre.

Not really an attack in the sense of find you scummy. But I don't agree with alot of your observations today. You haven't shown any huge difference between my lack of hammer and yours, and my reason is pretty much the same as yours. Fritzlers lack of hammer doesn't strike me as remarkable; he was repeating over and over again that Thesp was a terrible lynch. Why would he hammer him? Ether differs in the sense that she said she'd hammer.

[Patrick]

To comment on a few things concerning me then.

Patrick's 210. IH suspect, sucking up to Thesp. Odd stance on Thesp -- agrees with "string up under guise of lesson" but does not think Thesp is scum. Thinks SV flip-flopped, doesn't get MGM, wants to know where Ether-hate is coming from (names Glork specifically). Glork flatly refuses in 211.

I believe I've repeated my meta stance on Thesp more than once in this game. I have often seen Thesp go after players like that, as though he doesn't realise that sometimes pro town players may use flawed logic as well. So while I disliked the way he went about it, and found it to be close to bullying at times, I didn't find it scummy.

395 sent up a flag, and I'm not sure why. He finds IH scummy on a vibe, thinks that IH's earlier "igmeoy:thesp" was to satisfy Pat's "you're sucking up to Thesp" notion. I think Patrick overpresents his "case" against IH.

Whatever. Newbie 289 is the game in which he did this as scum if you're interested. Can't really reply to your red flag.

[Patrick]

Patrick says he doesn't want to lynch Thesp and he clearly knows that a lack of votes will lead to a no lynch. So I find it odd that he says Ether needs to get looked at
"tomorrow". Why didn't he put his vote where his mouth was and try to get Ether lynched then?

I think I've already explained that I did not believe Ether could be lynched. Contrary to what you seem to say before, Ether was online, and had been for a while. Lurking is not an indicator that she isn't around, it means that she's lurking.

Your argument for why no lynching was bad doesn't make sense. If we had an odd number I would totally agree, and wouldn't have risked a no lynch. However with an even number, the only way that no lynch can lose numerically is if we have a roleblocker who pulls off a successful block (obviously there is no doctor). Your argument that we've lost useful information also doesn't make sense, if we want, we could lynch Thesp today and still get that information, probably more than before. No lynching yesterday hasn't deprived us of that possiblity. Yesterday, 3 mislynches would have lead us to a loss. Today... 3 mislynches still leads us to a loss. You haven't demonstrated at all why a no lynch was bad.

[Patrick]

Zindaras is still probably scum btw. I don't find this explanation very convicncing:

I thought Post 111 was a scumtell. Non-contribution, flip-flop on AndrewS. That's what I had on her. I know it isn't a lot, but I didn't feel the AndrewS-lynch at all.

If he didn't have much on her, I don't understand the near fanatisism for her lynch. Not feeling the AndrewS wagon was hardly a good reason to lynch spectrumvoid. It's not as if Zindaras hadn't noted other scummy things, and post 111 didn't look so terrible anyway.

[Patrick]

Based on your answer, I'm assuming you didn't oppose lynching Ether (if you did, you'd have said so). It was clear that I couldn't be lynched either, so at least you could've tried. Bandwagons can form pretty quickly and a few switches is all it took to get Ether over the edge. Why not simply try?

It may have been better to vote Ether. Nevertheless she wouldn't have been lynched.

We still have 11 players. We're not about to lose for another few nights. Roleblockers and odd/even is totally irrelevant.

This is complete and utter crap. Please don't insult me with stuff like this.

We lost a cop and wasted a chance to catch scum. That's bad enough, but if we lynched Thesp yesterday, the final power role (blocker?) could've used that info last night to block a scum from killing. Basically, I see no reason why no lynch yesterday could've been a good thing. Also, why suggesting we can still lynch Thesp today? I thought you didn't want him dead.

You've described this in a way designed to make it look worse. We were losing our cop regardless. I'm simply showing how we haven't lost information, I'm not necessarily advocating a Thesp lynch.

[Patrick]

I made my last post in a rush.

Patrick, firstly, there's the roleblocker thing. Secondly, you can also treat it as a buffer, an alternative when faced with a deadline and little time to get a lynch. Unless one really thought Thesp was a bad lynch, hammering is the right thing to do.

These are the main points against that I can see. The roleblocker thing is true, but I feel is pretty minor. As for the buffer, I think yesterday wasn't an unreasonable time to use it. There are a few downsides to no lynching but I think they're being overblown by Mgm. I think I'd probably be all over him now if it weren't for the innocent investigation on him. I haven't counted him out for being a GF by any means.

[Patrick]

Ok, imagine that each night we lose one player (this assumes no roleblocker). That means that yesterday with 12 alive, 3 mislynches would lose the game. Today with 11 alive, it's still 3 mislynches loses the game. No change. If we no lynched today, tomorrow we'd have 10 alive, and it would only take 2 mislynches to lose the game. So with an odd number, no lynch is bad (it gives us one less mislynch). But with an even number that doesn't apply.

[Patrick]

Scum decide who dies at night whatever we do during the day.

[Patrick]

Hi MBL. Thanks for the exagerated surprise and outrage. It's entertaining. I admit to my vote on mgm being useless, since I didn't plan on lynching him. And despite the fact that Ether would never have been lynched, maybe I should have voted her. Couldn't be any worse than voting mgm I suppose.

I admit to being indecisive around that stage.

1) Looking for support in finishing off the claimed cop
2) Pre-emptively looking for an alternative to Thesp, who was the alternative to Adele
3) Looking for people to vote Zindaras so you wouldn't stand out like a sore thumb there (or alternatively, weak distancing from Zindaras)

I didn't plan on voting Adele. I noted that as scum in that position I would expect a powerole claim. Lynching a claimed cop is too risky. Pre-emptively looking for an alternative to Thesp? I think I'd have voted for Ether if I was looking for an easy alternative to Thesp. I certainly didn't think I could get Zindaras from 0 to 7 votes in about 7 hours. To take only a small leap here, I'm assuming you think I'm linked to Thesp in some way. Let me ask you, have you read any of my games as scum?
As for the third one, I'm not 'distancing' myself from Zindaras. I always had a kind of blind spot for him, but when he made that weak attack on me yesterday, I reread his posts and decided he was scummier than I first thought. Again, I think it's ludicrous to suggest that I had any aspirations of getting him lynched at that point. I've never seen such things happen.

why didn't you move your vote to anyone yesterday before sunset?

I wasn't willing to hammer Thesp. I hold my hands up to making a mistake in not voting Ether, though I believe it wouldn't have made any difference.

----

And the few things I can see from Glork's post that need commentary:

Thesp, Patrick, and CDB all expressed "sorry for lurking/slacking, I'll contribute" sentiments. Guarantee at least one is probably scum.

This is just a false dilemna. I don't make a habit of it, but I'd just not posted in a few days and wanted to let ppl know that I'd be back to it the following day. To suggest that one of us is likely scum because of that is ridiculous, and is not the first false dilemna you've presented in your long posts.

Patrick to MBM in 585, MBL doesn't like Pat's attitude. MBL also notices a very intersting apparent flip-flop between "I think the case was overstated" to "I buy the case," as indicated in 588.

589 is a lengthy response by Patrick, noting differences in the D1 case and the D2 case against MGM. He posits Adele/MGM, plus possibly Thesp. Considering Adele wasn't scum, MGM is likely not scum, and I'm now thinking that Thesp is very probably legit, I start to wonder about Patrick, too.

I don't believe there was a flip flop, just a natural thought process. It's called changing your mind. I don't know what makes you wonder aboout my suggesting Adele/mgm and Thesp. Only one of those is guaranteed town, and people can be wrong. I don't think I had an unreasonable point of view.

643-651 is basically a debate between Patrick and Thesp. It amounts to mutual FoSes. I honestly don't find it terribly interesting, but you're welcome to look at it yourself.

Earlier on you said that you 'completely agreed' with Thesp's point of view and you said that something in the prof plum debate made you think I was scum.

[Patrick]

Whatever. I don't see how 3 people apologising for recent inactivity can mean that at least one of them is scum.

[Patrick]

mmm. Zindaras is making some odd replies. His two minor attacks on me this game didn't make sense, but part of my suspicion on Zindaras is gut, in that he doesn't seem to have the same consistency, thought processes and curiosity of some of the players. He just seems to jump around a bit without much reasoning. He's blamed part of it on being busy, and then claimed to be trying to copy Fritzler, which would be a very easy answer for scum to give to excuse virtually anything. I dunno, some of the players I can understand the way their thoughts move logically, maybe because I've thought similar things, but I don't see that in Zindaras. Not that he's the only one.

I understood where Ether was going more on day 1, but the strong attack on Nightfall still seems strange. And the chronic lurking is worrying.

I'm leaning more and more towards Patrick as town.

Wow. Maybe I should sig this.

[Patrick]

No, seriously. You explicitly said here that Thesp was out of character, but your later statements have contradicted this. Please explain.

Yeah it was. His suspicions on day 2 seemed unusually feeble, and felt like little more than going after non contributors. That is out of character. At first I felt the attack on me was an attempt to appear useful or constructive too, but I changed my mind as it continued (not that I liked it). His play on day 1 was pretty usual for him.

[Patrick]

Hi. This list comes in no particular order.

MrBuddyLee: Seems fairly pro town though at times I think he went off in the wrong direction, for example day 1 spending a some time suggesting that the early Thesp wagon was probably some scum conspiracy. I also don't think what he's been saying today is necessarily the right direction either, but I'll say more about that later.

Glork: Unimpressed with day 1 play, been impressed since then. I think he's the most pro town looking player here.

Thesp: Really not sure. Has changed pace a few times in the game. Seems rather changed by the fact that a few ppl didn't hammer him, which is reasonable of course, although for some reason my sixth sense tingled over so slightly at his defence of me in his 72nd post. Not sure why though. I'll put him at neutral, but not in a bland way.

CDB: Slightlybad. It seems now that he must be deliberately lurking, since I've seen him around so much and yet he doesn't post here. Looking at all his posts right now - 21. Not much at all. Seems to have been focussing mainly on Thesp for a bit now, and it seems very easy to do. Incorrectly applied WIFOM, has posted since Thesp's complaints about this but no reply. Yeah I don't like him much.

MgM: Conflicting here, mainly caused by the investigation. I really don't like his play to be honest, I didn't like him yesterday, and I don't like the direction he took today, seems too eager to keep complaining about the no lynch. Also made the weird suggestion that odd or even number and roleblockers are irrelevant to a no lynch scenario. But yeah, cop has him as innocent. Not sure where I'd put him on any list of rankings, but I don't think such a thing would be very helpful now anyway.

CES: Meh. I dunno, though I don't understand the fanatisism for lynching Thesp which has been going on for a while now.

Fritzler: Heh I have some kind of read on him, even if it just gut. I think he's town. For some reason the lack of Thesp hammer struck me as quite genuine. I don't really think it increases the chance of a possible Thesp/Fritz pairing as MBL seems to think. I've seen Fritzler bus away scumbuddies in other games without a care in the world. I think he's town who genuinely thinks Thesp is town.

Ether: Hmm kind of scummy. Lurking alot. I have had trouble understanding her direction since around day 2 I think. Didn't much like the attempt to link me to Nightfall, wasn't overjoyed either at the way she jumped up when Glork suggested I was connected to Adele in some way. Tricky though, and she always seems scummy.

Zindaras: For a while my assessment of him was just bouncing vaguely around thinking he was a bit strange and thinking he was neutral. But now I think he's scum, for reasons explained at various points. I would be happy with lynching him.

Nightfall: I'm not watching him as closely as some others. Lurks at times. Didn't agree with some stuff he said about Andrew, though he sounds genuine enough. I'd put him at neutral.

-----


I don't see Fritz/Thesp or Ether/Thesp combinations as very likely. Ether's lack of hammer seemed too conspicuous and clumsy for them to be scumbuddies; I think she'd be smoother. And I think Fritz is town.

Actually I find Ether's lack of hammer fairly townish regardless of Thesp's alignment. <3 Ether for being tricksy. I could see Zindaras/CDB together, and out of the two I'd prefer to kill Zindaras. Hmm something I saw earlier made me think Zindaras and mgm could be together too. I disliked the way Zindaras seemed to be preparing himself to ooze onto the MgM wagon around pages 28/29. Then interestingly enough MgM attacked me for asking Zindaras for his reasons as Glork noticed in post 722. Then Zindaras was noncommital on mgm for a while, saying he was analysing him, while asking everyone for their opinions. Then, when it was finally looking like Mgm probably wasn't going to be the lynch for the day anyway, Zindaras finally voted him. Also makes minor attempt to link me with mgm. Damn. I could definitely see these two guys together.

[Patrick]

No. We've hardly played together. For some reason the game that was sticking out most when I said that was band mafia, where I think you chucked CDB under the wheels.

[Patrick]

Q: If I am unable to check the thread, and for that reason do not post, do you consider that lurking? I'm really just curious.

No, that's just not being around. Lurking is when you are around but don't post. I don't have you down as a lurker such as CDB or Ether, but you've done it at times.

[Patrick]

Don't worry Stoofer

[Patrick]

Heh, that is interesting. CDB shows that he has been reading the thread and pops up with a roleclaim when under pressure. I have read through his posts, and may have an idea what is wrong, though it didn't necesarily jump out as immediately damning so maybe I'm not on the right track.

I agree with CES's previous post. Also, CDB didn't claim any night choices, which would have been easy for him to add in two minutes if he actually made them, but if he's scum he probably wouldn't have had time to make up nightchoices.

[Patrick]

Nightfall - what do you think of CDB? What do you think of his claim?

[Patrick]

Zindaras, your last post seems to come with the assumption that Channel Delibird is scum (but presumably not the GF). Is that correct?

I tend to think that CDB would put more effort in at this stage if he really were the roleblocker, especially when certain ppl are throwing around the idea of lynching without waiting for possible counterclaims. He feels like scum who's nearly given up.

[Patrick]

"I think we're looking at a Glork one-two" does, in fact, say anything about CDB. Patrick is correct in saying that. And I don't see how discussing possible counter-claims helps us in any way. We should simply ignore the possibility of a counter-claim, since even talking about it is going to give stuff away if he's lying.

In posts before that, I don't really see you mentioning CDB. Now you've come in with the assumption that he is scum, seemingly automatically. What led to this? Have you read his posts and found something damning?

Eh, who proposed it? I thought it was MBL. You went erratic, all over the map, Day One. Great way to get the Cop to investigate you. That's why I characterized you as more likely to be a godfather role.

If I remember right, MBL actually suggested this about Thesp.

[Patrick]

Let's not get deadlined at this point guys. Still waiting on several things it seems, but I don't buy the connection between Glork and CDB thing. If CDB is scum, I think Glork and Thesp are likely town. Neither of their attacks on him felt bussy to me.

[Patrick]

Yeah, let's go through with the lynch. Assuming I'm alive tomorrow, I'll continue my post-by-post analysis of the game.

Not necessarily what I meant. In any case, I think it would be wise for you or MBL to say what was found in CDB's posts at some point today.

[Patrick]

Scummity scum: ChannelDelibird, Thesp

You think they are scum together, or just one of them is scum?

[Patrick]

Psh. I've read through their posts and I don't buy the Thesp/CDB link at all. I will be amazed if they are scum together. It reads nothing like bussing to me. Thesp has been constantly trying to bring things back to CDB, and only seemed to go for other people when a CDB lynch wasn't looking realistic.

And once again I find myself disliking Mgm's posts. I don't understand this, "Thesp was nearly lynched yesterday so we should finish the job now" stuff. I doesn't seem like a good mindset to me.

[Patrick]

Oh yeah. Lynching a claimed role blocker is much smarter </sarcasm>. If he's lying there's no hurry lynching the guy. If he's not, we've just saved ourselves a power role. (A surviving role blocker could, with a well aimed choice, stop his own killer). There's plenty of suspects. A claimed power role isn't the best choice.

The claim is fairly scummy. How smart lynching him is depends on what damning evidence has been found. Some people seem certain that he is scum.

That makes me wonder. Does the mod make the scum send out one particular killer - which requires a really specific block, or would a block on any scum do the job?

I imagine scum have to choose one member each time. If a block on any scum did the job, roleblocker would be too powerful.

[Patrick]

Nightfall has made a few odd posts recently, chasing seemingly minor things and not saying much about CDB. He also still hasn't answered my question on how he feels about the claim.

Mgm's posts are also sounding rather forced somehow. I dunno, MBL had this change of opinion, suddenly becoming certain that CDB is scum and saying he's found something damning in his posts, and Mgm doesn't seem the least bit excited about it, posting almost like an automated unit or something. It's weird. I very much dislike the narrow focus he has on getting Thesp lynched, seemingly only because of yesterdays ending.

CDB is doing what I would expect from scum to be honest. I think a pro town powerole would put up more of a fight than this. He hasn't been willing to do as people asked him and give detailed opinions on other players, maybe for fear of incriminating scumbuddies. As for in his past posts, the thing that caught my eye was in his 19th where it sounded like he was talking about how he would have reacted if he were a townie:

'm saying that I would have been righteously indignant (easily confused with defensive) at baseless accusations such as the ones you were making.

There were a few other things he said that were on the same theme, though I'm never too sure how seriously to take these potential slips.

[Patrick]

Stoofer has a weird way of deciding when to deadline a game. Tomorrow I must remember to move my vote around a bit to fill the quotas. I think we need everyone to rather quickly give their opinion on CDB and his previous posts, and say whether they've spotted anything that jumps out. I have to say my gut is telling me he's scum because of the claim and his attitude post claim, but haven't spotted anything completely damning despite looking through all his posts a few times.

[Patrick]

Don't worry, I promise I'll be back before the deadline.

[Patrick]

With 6 days until deadline, it was pretty obviously a joke.

[Patrick]

Mgm, are you saying you'd consider no lynching over lynching CDB?

[Patrick]

I'll put a 5th vote on before the end of this (real life) day if someone hasn't already. So if anyone has anything else to say, go for it.

[Patrick]

Vote: ChannelDelibirds

[Patrick]

Damn. At least we got scum though. I agree that Fritzler must have had an innocent on Thesp, however I think it's very unlikely Thesp is a godfather. As I said before, their interactions don't suggest bussing to me. It would still be appreciated if MBL would now point out what he found in CDB's posts.

Vote: Zindaras

because I still think he's scum. Same reasons as before, though a few of his posts late yesterday hinted at him knowing CDB was going to turn up as a goon.

I see Mgm as a serious possibility for being a godfather. He spent a while yesterday defending CDB by pushing hard against Thesp and making a big deal about the lack of lynch yesterday. I didn't like his post 1118 either, especially this:

Unfortunately, I'm developing a nagging feeling that CDB might be scum and that someone's going to try to accuse me of being the GF and lynch me tomorrow if I fail to participate in his lynch. That doesn't do my paranoia or my heart any good. MBL and Glork seem to be all set to go for my jugular if I make a wrong decision today.

It just feels wrong. And after all that time defending CDB he looks like laying the groundwork for a 180 turn if he sees that CDB is going to be lynched. Possibly because he knows CDB will turn up scum so he wants to make sure he is seen to be part of the crowd that wanted him dead.

I think Glork, Thesp and MBL are likely town which is at least a comforting thought. I think CES, Ether and Nightfall could conceivably be scum. And I'd say Zindaras and Mgm are my top picks at this stage for the remaining two scum.

[Patrick]

Mgm's strategy yesterday if he is scum was pretty crude. But I still don't like anything that he posted on day 3 at all. I would have to read his other games to see how he acts as scum and town. The post I quoted felt rather forced, and it also came after a string of posts in quick succession where he had been defending CDB. Especially his post 117 where he quoted a post made by CDB where he mysteriously called his answers "townish" and said that this made him more suspicious of Thesp. The feeling I have is that he made these posts then decided he had maybe been too defensive of CDB, so left himself an opening to flip flop on that if necessary.

I think it's unlikely that CES and Mgm are scum together though, I think that really

would

be too blatant.

After preview:

I'm certain that Thesp is a GF because Fritz had an innocent on him and he is scum. I personally have no trouble reading it as a bussing attempts. He expressed suspicion of Channel often without providing much reasoning and he had little problem with voting for other people. I mean, he drew attention to Channel, but I don't hold him responsible for the Channellynch.

Interesting, because I saw him as a big force in the CDB lynch. I might just reread the whole game now, while I'm in the mood. I will add that I think Thesp did provide quite alot of reasoning for voting CDB, if not straight away.

[Patrick]

Here is the funny thing about Ether though, which I think points towards her being town. (This assumes Thesp is town which I believe he is).

In her 14th post she says that she will likely hammer Thesp before deadline, not because she finds him especially scummy but because of the deadline. Fairly standard stuff, and I could see scum saying that to ease their way onto a Thesp hammer using an obvious excuse. Except... she never follows up on this. Why not if she is scum? She could get rid of a townie, and probably wouldn't pick up alot of flak for it. She did however pick up a fair amount of flak for not hammering. So basically I would have expected her to kill him at that point if she is scum (I would also expect the same if she happened to be scum with Thesp as I explained earlier, but I see that as very unlikely). I too would like Ether to give more clearcut opinions on everyone, because that last post was a little cryptic.

[Patrick]

My understanding is he was a full cop. On day 2 he was acting like he had an innocent on Thesp. I think there is a different card for a deputy.

[Patrick]

I think Thesp pretty much covered what I was going to reply to you MBL. Like him, I don't have any particular issue with your (Zindaras, CES) suggestion. It's certainly a possibility. As for Ether, her not hammering just stuck out the most to me, probably because she had made a post that looked like it was kind of preparing a hammer on him later. I don't think the pro town list you gave is bad either; I think Thesp is town, I think you are town, I know I'm town. Nightfall I want to read up on before too long, as I've not looked at him very closely this game. And Ether, well, I don't believe that lack of hammering guarantees anything, but it's a point in favour. There are still a few issues with Ether.

As for the theory that a godfather might try to deliberately pull investigations... I don't find it especially compelling. Possible, but I doubt that the first thought that goes through the mind of a godfather at the start of a game is, "Must pull an investigation at all costs". You're suggesting a GF would be trying to act scummy enough to pull an investigation, but not enough to get lynched, which would already be a fine balancing act to pull off. Add to that the possibility that this game might not have even contained any cops (too lazy to work out the probability of that now). It doesn't quite seem like the great strategy you make it out to be. I wouldn't get too caught up in it.

[Patrick]

I wonder how this meshes with the first line of this next quote.

Well what? How am I supposed to have contradicted myself? I think you're scummy, but I don't think it's been part of a deliberate plan by you to pull investigations.

1) A lack of a lynch is a big deal. It's the only chance for the town to take control and kill some scum (barring any active vigs). I believe I was wrong to want Thesp dead now. But I don't see how not lynching the #1 suspect of the day is a good thing. A no lynch can be a good strategy in some situations, but if someone who promises to lynch doesn't causing an accidental no lynch, that's bad. Pure and simple.

Yes, isn't it gutting that we failed to lynch a likely townie. Damn. I've already explained why no lynching when it's an even number is hardly a disaster as compared to no lynching with an odd number. I'm not saying I entered the day thinking today no lynching would be great, but again, the downsides of it have been massively overblown by you. Notice how the extra time given to us by no lynching has lead us to instead lynch scum rather than a likely townie.

2) I said that quote because I was uncertain of CDB. You can believe that are you can not. It's funny though how you are trying to make it sound suspicious (not Glork or MBL as I thought) but the person who prevented me from proving that statement by hammering CDB before the day I said I would do it. Tell me, what exactly is the advantage for me, if I were a scumbucket, to protect CDB? Rather than saving his life, it was pretty much heading in the direction of killing us both. How is that a good strategy? I think I deserve a bit more credit than that.

Well no, you said you MIGHT hammer him very shortly before deadline. I decided not to take that chance. And as I said, I believe you defended him for a while and saw it going nowhere, so you set up a 180 turn for yourself by making that post.

3)"he wants to make sure he is seen to be part of the crowd that wanted him dead." I don't know how I would've managed that. I protected him all day. One vote isn't going to make people forget that.

Generally when I look back over scum lynches, and I see someone defending scum, then doing a quick turn near the end, I consider it a scumtell.

You've been on about how I am suspicious while disregarding anything suspicious Thesp has done (before we even knew he might've been investigated). You're acting the same as CES is now. Disregard investigative results in favor of your favorite GF suspect.

The first sentence is just an incorrect statement. Why say it? The second is also clearly wrong, I've been playing absolutely nothing like CES at any point in the game. I certainly haven't attacked you exclusively, I haven't just voted you saying "He's scum" and nothing else. Again, why say something so blatantly false? I find your play consistently leaving a bad taste in my mouth, why would I avoid saying that just because you have an innocent on you?

Vote: Patrick for the bad logic in this post and the continued efforts to lynch an investigative target. I think the way to catch GFs is by association, so it's imperative to get goons early on. You could conceivably hit a GF early on but that would have more to do with luck. Lynching investigative targets is likelier to kill the closest you have to confirmed innocents in the game.

I haven't used any bad logic so this comes down to "Vote: Patrick because he's been suspicious of me". Note that I haven't voted for you today to be lynched, unless you've recently changed your name to Zindaras.

[Patrick]

I also said I'd give plenty of notice if I decided not to do it. What was the hurry that you had to lynch the guy 2 days before the deadline? The 2 additional days could've yielded us lots more info.

I disagree that we were going to get a bucketload more info from those two extra days.

No, instead you continue to call me suspicious in the hope others will lynch me while you're not on the wagon so you look innocent. You can't use not be voting me as an excuse. You're still trying to make me look bad and convince others I'm scum.

To be clearer then, I do not think you are the play today. If I thought you were, I would have voted you and not Zindaras. I pointed out a post by you that felt off. I stand by that assessment. As I said before, I'm not going to keep quiet about posts that bother me just because you can't be a mafia goon.

[Patrick]

Rest:
Cogito Ergo Sum
Glork
MrBuddyLee
Nightfall
Zindaras

Do you have anything that you think seperates these players at all in terms of scumminess?

CES is being annoying, spammy, not making sense etc. I'm not sure what to say. It could be a way of avoiding actually contributing any content I suppose. Even if he is town and strongly suspects Thesp, he seems to have forgotten that half the game is convincing other people of your suspicions.

[Patrick]

GAME STATUS: Day 4 - 9 alive means 5 to lynch!

[Patrick]

Not really. He claims he's already found one scum in Thesp.

[Patrick]

Let me check what this numbers thing means. 3 between two people means they could well be connected and 1 means not? Or are the numbers just referring to individuals?

As for the CES wagon, one of his voters makes a fair case for voting him, the other two not really. Thesp had some fair points about CES changing fairly quickly on CDB and being generally unhelpful. His attack on Thesp seems ludicrously prolonged and stubborn. I find it hard to see why he would do it as scum in this situation, when it's obviously not getting anywhere, unless he's just trying to be consistent and stick to his guns (and avoid saying much of anything on anyone else). I think there are better places to look than CES at this point, like Zindaras. I personally think the case against Zindaras in stronger than the one against CES, but it's interesting how the CES wagon seems to grow far more easily.

MBL - Mind explaining your vote on CES more? You've played with him alot I presume, so do you have any metagame on him that makes you think he'd be more likely to act retarded like this if he was scum? Nightfall what about you?

[Patrick]

Are you talking about his blatant misrepresentation?

Can't say that I've seen one.

[Patrick]

MBL - Mind explaining your vote on CES more? You've played with him alot I presume, so do you have any metagame on him that makes you think he'd be more likely to act retarded like this if he was scum?

[Patrick]

I find Mgm's case against MBL to be relatively uninteresting. Ether, you've been on scumchat the past two nights, would it have hurt to just pop in and quickly explain to us the numbers thing in your posts, so we actually have a clearer idea? You do have permission to post more often than once every 4 days.

Mod

please prod Zindaras for us.

[Patrick]

You mean this one?

I can't imagine scum would have taken the risk that I took.

How exactly do you consider killing a scumbuddy and covering the tracks of a supposed cop a risk for a scumbag?

It doesn't seem a stretch for MBL to think Glork may have been a cop. Earlier on in the game I had also thought the same thing.

[Patrick]

CDB was already a lost cause. If any scum associated themselves with him, I'd be very surprised. I'm convinced scum was early on the wagon to look innocent.

At what point exactly do you think that CDB became a lost cause?

[Patrick]

I wouldn't mind Zindaras being modkilled in the sense that I think he's scum, though I think we'd get more information from lynching in the normal way.

[Patrick]

How irritating. The only thing I remember saying that was lost was that I like Ether's case on Nightfall, awaiting Zindie's analysis, and would like Nightfall to tell me whether he thought Fritz was undercontributing even by Fritz standards at the point when he called him out. Also, Zindie's gut post was weird.

[Patrick]

Zindaras hasn't said or done anything to change my mind.

[Patrick]

How convenient. He probably said something, but with all those posts missing it's impossible to check.

There is nothing convenient about it. The only thing he posted that was lost was a brief post which contained his gut feelings on everyone. He didn't advance the analysis that he'd promised. Therefore, he hasn't done anything to change my opinion.

I believe at least 1 scum is in the group of people who aren't being looked at (MBL, Glork, Patrick). So I'm not really all that surprised they're the ones fuelling the top 2 wagons. I am wondering why no one is looking at them.

I don't see the Zindaras wagon as a particularly easy or convenient one. I don't remember any point where it has really taken off. I also think there is a strong case against him.

[Patrick]

That's fair enough Stoofybaby.

Thesp, of MBL, Glork and Patrick, who do you find most scummy?

I like the way you phrase this question

I'm starting to think Mgm may actually just be a misguided townie rather than scum godfather, though i'm slightly curious about his question to Thesp there.

I could see Nightfall/Zindybuns, not so much Nightfall/CES. I'm not sold on CES being town, but still don't like the wagon on him, as it felt almost too easy to be true. The fact that Zindaras seems so scummy but never seems to get a wagon on him is encouraging actually. Although this may be too much general theory, I believe that generally wagons on town will go faster, because there's usually scum out there willing to push it along when they sense an oppotunity, whereas wagons on scum will be more sticky, because they will not have that same propulsion, and may have one or two people subtly trying to divert attention from them. I feel this applies to the AndrewS/CDB wagons, where the first one literally skyrocketed, but the CDB one not so much. The CES wagon seems to have been more successful than the Zindy one, despite the fact CES seems the less scummy of the two. I also noted the funny similarity between the attacks on CDB and the current one on Nightfall -- both of them were initially pushed by one person alone, and were largely ignored up until a certain point. I'm not sure how much this means, but it's just something I noted.

I like Ether's last post, and still think Thesp and Glork are town, and to a lesser extent MrBuddyLee.

[Patrick]

MBL and Nightfall. Hmm. I have vaguely considered it, I remember MBL defending Nightfall quite alot against Ether's attacks, and attacking Ether over it; not sure whether he'd provide such a defence for a scumbuddy like that when Nightfall wasn't in any great danger anyway. But as with Glork, I'd have to reread MBL to check my facts there. I can see more room for MBL to be scum than either Glork or Thesp, but I still lean town. Might get a chance to do the read tonight if I finish my essay. On another note, I'm happy to see Zindaras has solved his connection problems.

[Patrick]

Theorizes that scum were not on the CDB wagon and were on the CES wagon, which by process of elimination gives us only Nightfall.

Not quite what I said. I just observed the different speeds of the bandwagons, it's certainly possible CDB was bussed by someone. I could see Nightfall/MBL as scum jumping on CES, though one feels more likely than both being scum if you ask me. Could see it as a counter to a Zindaras wagon.

Curious focus on disentanglement.

Not sure what this means.. mind clarifying?

Patrick, what do you think of the case Ether made against Nightfall in March?

I made a post lost in the crash saying I liked what Ether had said, and that it was the first time I'd seen her make a convincing case against Nightfall. Previous attacks didn't do much for me, including March attack. I didn't like being linked to Nightfall, and still don't think the link made sense. But then again I don't like being linked to anybody in particular.

MBL, if I asked you for a list at this point, how would it read and why?

[Patrick]

I think we should have 5 people send in votes for deadline extension/wipeout, since Stoofer has given us the option.

[Patrick]

Ok. I'll probably post more sometime later today, but I'm assuming MBL was not one of the 3 who asked for a deadline extension before, which means that with him asking we have 4 votes for it. I recommend someone else who hasn't yet done so to vote for extension. The day is long timewise but not particularly long in posts or content.

MBL, it's strange that you are voting CES and not Zindaras, since Zindaras seems to be your top suspect percentage wise.

[Patrick]

I will vote Nightfall to make deadline That said:

Deadline still in place for the time being.

In the absence of a substantive post/groveling apology/huge bribe, Zindaras will be modkilled at deadline

Will this be instead of our lynch choice or in addition to our lynch?

Nightfall's post 1330 seems to be adressing CES as though he thinks or knows that CES is town, whereas two posts before he said that CES was a grave concern of his.

[Patrick]

It's worth asking whether we should lynch Nightfall or not, with Zindaras getting modkilled at deadline. Would it be best to find out Zindaras's alignment before killing anyone else? Or do we want to double lynch today?

[Patrick]

Tough call but I'll go with Nightfall out of those two.

Unvote, vote: Nightfall.

That's 4.

[Patrick]

Interesting fact: This is now the second-longest Normal Game ever; and likely to overtake the longest (Mafia 49: SpeedyKQ's Big New York) before it ends. However, Mafia 58: Ready Salted is nearly as big and has a long way to go, so that may end up the biggest. I wonder what how long this game would be if I had never imposed any deadlines?

Indeed. Who wants deadlines.

Mgm - what do you think is the best play right now?

[Patrick]

[Patrick]

Unvote

in light of the new deadline.

[Patrick]

Mgm, that question was asked really in context of the deadline, which has now disappeared anyway.

[Patrick]

I apologise for innacurate wording. I'm sure he wouldn't have had a clue what I was trying to say
On the MBL thing, I have an idea what it might be for myself and Nightfall. It would be interesting to see which post it is for Ether though.

[Patrick]

Vote: Zindaras

no reason not to go back to my top suspect with deadline extended.

[Patrick]

You mean why is he my top suspect?

There are several reasons, and alot of it is already dispersed throughout the thread. I started being suspicious of him on page 32, where I talked about it in posts 797 and 799. (How do you link to a certain post?)

His accusation there seemed off, and he never tried to respond or follow it up, which seems to me more likely what scum would do, and makes it hard to believe he really had that suspicion of me. In fact the next post he made after that was a Thesp vote just to make deadline.

When I look over his posts afresh he seemed suprisingly confident that AndrewS would turn up town.

I dislike his push on spectrumvoid on day 1, as has been discussed before. The only reason he's given for this fanatisism is that her post 111 was a "scumtell". I don't really see that, and Zindaras like me has tons of experience playing with spectrumvoid. She didn't seem particularly out of the ordinary, though she was kind of an easy target. In any case, I find it hard to believe he thought that post by her was the scummiest thing on the board.

On day 2, most of what I remember from Zindaras was wagon hopping, potshot at me, and lurking.

On day 3 he pretty much ignored the discussion of CDB and his claim. He didn't express suspicion of CDB before that, yet one or two of his posts near the end of the day look like he's already planning for the future, attempting to connect Glork to CDB (assumes CDB is scum and a goon as noted then). Now to me, it looks like he's trying to use Glork's reputation as a massive busthrower against him here. It seems counterintuitive to assume that someone who played a good part in busting a scum should themselves be scum. Glork came onto CDB second if I recall, with Thesp being the initial pusher. I believe if Glork was scum, he wouldn't have had any great incentive to bus CDB when he made his long stream of consciousness posts. Up until then, the pressure on CDB was coming from one person mainly. And Glork certainly had alot of other possible targets to attack if he was scum. CDB clearly played the lurking scum kind of game, which succeeded to some extent in getting people to overlook him, and I don't see why a scumbuddy would need to bus him at that point. It seems like Zindaras's suspicion of CDB came entirely because of the roleblocker claim, which is one of the easiest ways to bus a scumbuddy.

Then again he starts to pull back a bit on the Glork/CDB connection thing. Maybe realised he can't push that very far, or maybe a townie who just genuinely changed his mind. No particular read on that.

Nothing much to note on day 4, except for the beginning of his analysis. It was pretty thorough for such an early stage of the game, which implied he was going to spend some serious time doing the rest of the game later. But I think he has real life issues right now. The absence these past weeks is inconvenient, but I don't read anything into it because his activity has been low around the site.

My suspicion of him comes from days 1-3. I haven't made an exhaustive list of all the things I disagree with him on, or comments he made that struck me weird, because it would take forever. But he hasn't been on my brainwaves much in this game. When he's not contributing stuff I disagree with, he's usually been lurking or just hopping around. Feels like the ideal scum strategy. I can't really think of anything that strikes me as protown about his play, whereas I can for most other players in this game.

---

Glork, do you think Zindaras is protown? What do you think of Nightfall's recent posts?

[Patrick]

Ah nice one. Looks like a Freudian slip to me.

Is this a joke or something? If so then lol.

I don't see why we should wait to lynch someone until after Zindy gets modkilled. I doubt the mafia would let a scumbuddy die and I doubt the mod would leave the last mafia out on his own.

So you're saying that Zindaras is probably town because of the modkill threat? This seems like a terrible way to judge people's alignments. And what do you mean by saying you'd doubt the mafia would let a scumbuddy die like that? If Zindaras is mafia, his scumbuddy doesn't have control over whether he goes inactive or not.

[Patrick]

I think it's pretty clear what Ether meant there so I don't see how it's freudian slip. As for the second part, I don't sit by idly and hope that scum get modkilled. I've made a choice, and I don't think that trying to outguess the mod in the way you've described is particularly helpful.

[Patrick]

Well, I agree the last post by MBL doesn't make sense since as far as I can tell he's the one who sheeped onto Zindaras and you've been defending Zindaras recently. I'll isolate and read all his posts sometime this evening when I have more time.

[Patrick]

****

[Patrick]

I may as well

unvote

since the guy is dead. And now go and eat.

[Patrick]

Well, these Glork/MBL fights seem to be a constant theme, that I seem to see in virtually all games where they play together. I know both tend to judge each other more harshly than normal. I'm fairly sold on Glork being town, as I have been for a while now. Today's explosions were weird but just seem to reinforce the impression. I think Glork changes his opinions alot when he's protown, from what I've seen at any rate. Obviously I didn't think that the case against Zindaras was steam, or I wouldn't have been voting him, and I think it's somewhat exagerated to say that most players were realising he was town, but Glork's uncertainty on it seemed genuine enough to me. And even before Zindaras was modkilled as town, he'd pretty much gone full steam against MBL and Nightfall.

MBL, I find you harder to read. I think it would help alot if you went and answered the bunch of questions that are being asked. If you can't be bothered to type out the Zindaras case again then just say what you thought wasn't quite right about mine, what you'd have added, removed etc. And do the genuine posts thing.

[Patrick]

Ether posting twice in one day tends to be a scumtell =P

[Patrick]

I'm unsure where the last LoS came from.

[Patrick]

I should have phrased it better. I'm unsure whether that is accurate or not beyond the top two on the list.

[Patrick]

Well, that's an interesting and large amount of stuff there. You have some good observations there MBL, though your stance towards Nightfall seems somewhat generous, since you listed mostly stuff that he's done that was dodgy (dropped off recently, no comments on Zindaras). You must really have faith in those early posts made by him which you think looked sincere. I've never seen Nightfall use that format before, so I don't know if it's normal or something he just adopted for this game. My feeling is that the stream of consciousness posts made by Glork looked very sincere, but that the pbp format used by Nightfall would be easier for scum to do. There is alot of it though, so effort was obviously put in.

Are there any games where Glork made a similar stream of consciousness type thing as scum?

My gut feeling is you're wide of the mark in your Glork assessment but I am getting more suspicious of CES. I don't like the ease with which he slid over to the MBL vote when he says he has no read on MBL.

[Patrick]

Can't I trust Glrok? I know I have no read on him either way, so that's not factoring into my decision and Glrok doesn't have that title for nothing. (Also, I'm fairly sure Glrok is town.)

Unvote though, as Glrok has done the same.

Even if Glork is town, that doesn't mean he's necessarily right. Especially if he actually has a history of being wrong about MBL.

[Patrick]

Activity from me will be lower because my exam period is approaching.

Skimming back over some posts, I'd like to ask MgM and Nightfall what the case against Ether is. MBL said that MgM has been coasting on myself and Ether, and looking back he does have a point. Also Nightfall, why did you avoid the Zindy issue entirely?

[Patrick]

You did indeed say on day 1 that you thought she was defending him, "with the apparent belief that he can't really do wrong" but that doesn't really seem true when I look back at her posts.

[Patrick]

Sent a extension request to Stoofer. This helps me personally because I have a very busy time until the 25th.

[Patrick]

Last I saw you were attacking her (and me) over not hammering Thesp. You now claim to think Thesp is protown. Do you believe failing to hammer a likely protown player is scummy? Otherwise your old "case" is redundant.

[Patrick]

Welcome to both the replacements.

[Patrick]

You really think attacks by Ether should get any credit?

Yes.

[Patrick]

Well, I don't consider Ether's an attack we should follow. If we don't lynch MBL, we should've lynched Ether before he was replaced.

You don't have a case against Ether as far as I can see. I looked back over your posts, most of it seems to be complaining about the fact that she didn't hammer Thesp. I don't consider that a case against her, or even a point against her. If you think it's so likely she's scum that you don't think it's even worth listening to what she had to say, you should have no problem giving a case and trying to convince others. You haven't done that.

[Patrick]

Mgm, I take that as an admission that you don't have a case at all then.

[Patrick]

Battle Mage, I might argue that alot of your readings seem heavily influenced by how people treated your predecessor. CES and Glork are your top suspects, both of them have been heavy on Nightfall. And you say if CTD continues in the same way as Ether (attacking Nightfall) he's suspicious too. Mgm and Patrick looking town, two players who haven't been so hard down on Nightfall. Also, mind explaining why MBL looks like the "most protown looking player here"? What do you think of Thesp's attacks on CDB for most of the game? Let me also point out that this makes no sense at all:

Fritzler seems certain that Thesp is town. Fritz is NKed the following night, thus it follows that Thesp was one of his confirmed innocents. If anything, this reflects badly on him and MgM, as 50% of the scum now come up protown to cops, and so there is a greater chance of 1 of them being scum than a player who hasn’t been investigated.

... I have no idea how you could have come to this conclusion. Nada. Not a clue.

I don't really understand Thesp's accompanying reason for his vote on Battle Mage. Are you saying everything written in red by Nightfall is scummy? Why? That said I will definitely support a Battle Mage lynch but I'll wait for CTD to finish his analysis given that there is no deadline.

[Patrick]

now, Patrick, a question for you: didnt you find the fact that CDB claimed Roleblocker scummy?

Yes, see my comments around that time. His behaviour after the claim was also scummy.

[Patrick]

I don't find it relevant that CES was talking about roleblockers earlier. I was too and so were others; it was because of the discussion we were having about odd/even numbers and how good or bad no lynching was. Roleblocker just came into that discussion naturally.

[Patrick]

And the fact he was lurker extreme. If you promise to hammer someone and fail to do so, you deprave the town from lynch information. I find it scummy, you apparently don't. You get information from a bandwagon that results in no lynch and you get info from the night death, but these don't quite measure up.

God this annoys me no end. You're looking at it generally and not even applying the fact that Thesp is very likely protown, which massively changes things and means not hammering him was actually a good thing. Please step up about 50 gears if you are protown and stop saying stuff like this.

[Patrick]

i disagree that Thesp is 'likely protown'. Of the 2 'confirmed' innocents, id say he is significantly the scummiest. i think it is possible that whilst he is a bad play for today, if we dont find the GF soon, he might be a good play.
BM

I disagree, I think he is likely town. I'm fairly sure I've seen MgM say so at some point as well. Thus his argument is that Ether is scummy for not hammering a player who he thinks is likely town. I can't see any sense in that.

[Patrick]

We know that now, but the fact the person he didn't lynch is possibly pro-town was just dumb luck. (And the fact also remains that Thesp is less "confirmed" than I am, because we don't know for sure he was investigated to begin with. What I'm saying is that he lost us information. Any lynch would've given us information at the time and instead Ether's action gave us a no lynch. It might tell us something about Ether, but it deprived us of information about pretty much everyone else.

Um. If Ether was scum and Thesp town, Ether would know Thesp's alignment. No dumb luck. I consider it unlikely she would turn down an easy chance to hammer him in that situation. The only way Ether's lack of hammer on Thesp could be "dumb luck" is if she was town and got lucky, and you almost seem to be implying that's what you think happened in your post. You can't argue that she is scum and just got lucky in not hammering Thesp. I've already explained why the no lynch did not in fact deprive us of information. I pointed out at the time that on day 3 we could have lynched Thesp if we wanted to, and received that same information, in fact we'd likely have got

more

information out of it. As it happens we made a collective decision and found what was likely a much better lynch. Your complaints here simply don't make sense, and you've been riding this for about 2 game days. And for the record, I consider Thesp far more confirmed than you, not because of the cop innocent, but due to his interactions with known scum.

You seem very evasive about talking about your suspicions in general. First you refused to give me your case against Ether, saying that there was no better case against anyone else, which already implies you don't think what you have against Ether is particularly good. And now you won't answer MBL's question, as though you can't possibly imagine how gut feelings in a game of mafia could be useful.

[Patrick]

Patrick: You don't want to get it, do you? If Ether was scum and Thesp was pro-town it was dumb luck he won't be linked to the lynch of an innocent. We could've lynched Thesp the day after but that would've been nonsense. I'm not saying he should've been lynched. I'm saying not following through on a promise is scummy and causing a no lynch when he could've lynched or pushed for the lynch of an alternative player is scummy. You say the no lynch gave us more info. So what info do you think that no lynch gave us that a lynch would not have given us?

Well no I'm starting to think I don't get it. I'm saying if Ether was scum and Thesp town, she would have hammered to kill an innocent. I doubt she would have picked up any flak for it at all. Scum need to lynch protown players, if a chance crops up where they can do it and not look bad then they generally take it. So in effect, I'm arguing that her not following through on her promise is not scummy in this case. No lynching didn't deprive us of any information. I don't know how to explain this to you, and I've tried several times. With 12 alive, we had 3 mislynches allowed before we lost. At 11 alive, after no lynching, we still have our 3 lives. We didn't lose any lynching oppotunities. So we didn't lose any oppotunities to get extra information.

I'm pretty happy to vote Battle Mage after CTD has finished his analysis. MBL - have you played with Battle Mage before?

[Patrick]

Other than you, I can see Thesp who has expressed a strong desire to see CES dead, MBL who has been suspicious of him for a while now, CTD who has him moderately high on his LoS. And nobody strongly thinks he's town. So yes I would agree with the point CES made there actually.

Happy to

Vote: Battle Mage

which is lynch -1. You should claim.

[Patrick]

MBL, he hasn't really found the entire CDB wagon scummy. He's expressed suspicion of Thesp, Glork, CES. He says he thinks I'm town, he's stated that you are the most protown looking player here, and obviously Fritz was town. It would be fair to say that you've also been attacking CES and Glork pretty heavily, and you haven't dismissed Thesp as a possibility for later.

If Battle Mage is scum with someone off the CDB wagon as you think, then the only options are CTD and MgM. I can't easily imagine Ether's attacks on Nightfall are bussing, though having just screwed up in lights out to scum who threw their entire scumteam under the bus, I'm feeling pretty paranoid. So I take it you think BM and MgM are the scumteam.

[Patrick]

It was mostly just a bitter comment. If Battle Mage is lynched as scum, CTD will basically move into the almost certainly town list for me.

[Patrick]

so you consider it impossible that scum can lynch other scum?
dont be silly. this is a game with experienced players. the skill at which the scum is playing is evident in the fact that 2 of them are still alive, with all power roles dead. It wouldnt surprise me 1 bit if Glork/Thesp bussed their buddy.
forgive me if im wrong here, but being on the wagon when scum is lynched, DOES NOT CONFIRM YOU PROTOWN. If thats your mentality, you might as well go home now. :p

This is probably what's called a strawman, though that's maybe only for when you subtly change what someone said. Nobody is saying that being on a scum lynch confirms a player as protown. What people are saying is that starting a wagon on confirmed scum tends to be be a town tell. The tone and manner in which Glork/Thesp went about it did not feel like busing.

oh and btw, can people stop referring to bits of my analysis which are wrong as 'slips'. ive already explained (and its evident to anyone reading it) that those were my thoughts at the time. My first thought was, "ah, MgM must have come up protown then". the gf bit became obvious later, and whilst it is true that MgM isnt 'confirmed' town, as i had said, there is little way in which that mistake could be construed as scummy.

I think the point being made was the vast difference between your assessments of MgM and your assessment of Thesp, the two investigated players.

[Patrick]

Battle Mage:

Also, mind explaining why MBL looks like the "most protown looking player here"?

[Patrick]

Oh man. Lylo. Time to revaluate stuff. Don't be too trigger with votes please guys.

[Patrick]

I'm uncomfortable with Mgm's first post of the day. Still thinking about why CTD might have been killed and thinking about plausible scum pairings.

[Patrick]

I was uncomfortable about your first post because I don't see how the CTD nightkill incriminates MBL especially. A bunch of people were suspicious of him yesterday. If Battle Mage had turned up scum, I would have been very suspicious of MBL who I thought looked like he was manufacturing reasons to slide onto the Battle Mage wagon. With Battle Mage turning up town, I'm less sure. He was still shifty on the Battle Mage wagon, but I'm trying to think of who could be scum with MBL. It's unlikely I can do that without some rereading. I still think Glork and Thesp are probably town.

[Patrick]

Actually, to me it looked like he was trying to do anything but hop on the BM wagon. I find your reasoning odd. Not lynching an innocent is a good thing.

You need to read what happened late yesterday then. MBL went from liking Battle Mage's analysis, to pointing out some flaws in it, to thinking he was probably scum in a short space of time. Had Battle Mage been scum, I would imagine MBL was trying to play both sides of the coin as Glork suggested, before trying to bus Battle Mage. Of course, we know now that Battle Mage was town anyway.

As for CTD being suspicious of MBL yesterday, I would say pretty much everyone alive now was suspicious of MBL yesterday.