Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[petroleumjelly]

Question for Zindie:

You seem to favor Option #2, which is:

2: Lynching killing scum would then require the other killing role to attempt to kill Cult. There's a chance of there being 2 Cult and a chance of there being 1 Cult. The killer won't be able to take the chance of there being 2 Cult and thus will have to look for Cult to kill.

Okay, so this leaves the town with (assuming Killer hits Cult):

2 Town
1 Cult (or Town)
1 Killer

In that situation, we would have to lynch the Killer D6. Then night would pass with nothing. Then we would have to lynch the Cultist D6.

Your plan involves the town lynching a Killer today, having the second killer kill Cult N5 (note: if this fails, the

cult wins

), lynching the second Killer D6, and lynching the last Cult on D7. Chances are this will be next to impossible. If we lynch in the wrong order D6 (i.e. the cultist before the Killer), we lose. If we lynch a townsperson, we lose. If we lynch wrong today, we lose.

*****

I think the town is better served trying to lynch a Cultist today.

If one killer hits the other, but the second hits Cult, then there is guaranteed to be no more cultists left, and there is only 1 killer left against 2 townspeople. This gives the town a very good 1/3 shot at lynching the remaining killer and winning.

If one killers hits town, and the other hits Cult, there are no more cultists, and we are left with a 1 townsperson v 1 killer v 1 killer. In that situation, the town will No-Lynch, and the killers will be forced to try to kill each other. If they are successful, the town wins.

If both killers kill each other, there will be 2 townspeople v 1 Cult. Again, a nice 1/3 chance at lynching correctly.

If both killers hit different townspeople, then we are probably screwed

unless

there was only one cultist to begin with. This means it would still be possible for there to be a Prisoner's Dilemma of 1 Townsperson v 1 killer v 1 killer, where the town will No-Lynch hoping for the killers to kill each other.

If both killers target the same person, this clearly throws wrenches in the numbers, but these possibilities are

much

more town-oriented that trying to lynch a killer today.

[ambic]

I think the point has been argued well enough as why lynching cult is best in this situation - but the thing is, we don't actually know who the cultists are. So it would pay to look along that line for a while.

I did suspect CES/Mgm of being scum earlier, but have no feel for what type of scum.

How would we go about making sure we lynch correctly? The cultists are hardly going to play along that plan and like regular scum will be claiming town. And unlike scum, the cultists used to be town, so post analysis on anything but recent posts is next to useless.

[petroleumjelly]

In general, I agree. Cultists are insanely difficult to lynch, simply because before recruitment, they were pro-town.

However, I do think somebody was recruited to the cult on Night One (or else spec/kleb would have had a third "X is scum" accusation), so we

should

be able to analyze people's play from Day Two, Day Three, and Day Four to search for one cultist. If there was a successful recruit on Night Four, there is really not much we can do but hope we lynch that person through happenstance, or hope that they are suddenly pushing a subtle pro-cult agenda today which could tip us off.

I have been considering mass-claiming for a while. What do others think about this? This could feasibly help us pinpoint scum of some sort. Even if this catches us killing scum, say, that will in turn narrow down the choices for possible cult-scum.

[petroleumjelly]

^ And an obvious side note, if we nail a killing scum in this way, the town is only put in that much more control of the situation.

[ambic]

I personally have no problem with mass claiming. Does this site support dice tags? (Not that I know how to use them)

[petroleumjelly]

Yeah, there's a dice function somewhere. I can find it if we decide we want to use it. We should probably make sure everybody is fine with a mass-claim first, though.

[ambic]

I wasn't intending to just roll dice and then try and force people to claim on my say so.

[Skruffs]

Personally I think CES is scum, too, but that's because of his vote for me and the reasoning that would of had to have gone into it at that precise moment in time.


Someone earlier suggested PJ is probably not a cult because they outed the cult and killed the leader, at that. I think that is good logic, if only because A) without a leader maybe they can't recruit which is basically condemning them, and B) the selfish gains that would be garnered by 'outing' a cult leader to appear town (and not be suspiciscized) is definitely more outweighed by the potential losses incurred with the town's new awareness of there actually being a cult.
Does this mean that PJ is a townie? no, I'm just saying, it's like they aren't cult. That's what I think anyways.

[Amb]

(For the record I have finally gotten rid of that stupid ic on the end of my name. It was there because there used to be a minimum length for names of 5. Stupid long-gone rule)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Sudden pro-cultness, Djelibeybi? Like Zindie's post on the last page, you mean?

I'm up for a mass claim.

[Amb]

Actually - suppose that our singleton killer is a vigilante and not an SK, wouldnt that be putting a player at risk. A mass claim could just end up outing a player we dont want outed?

[Zindaras]

Do you realize that in the situation of Killer, Killer, Town, the town has a decent chance of winning? We don't need 2 townies to live.

The town has the worst chance of winning that setup. Only 25%, completely random. And it's completely out of control too.

If we lynch Killer, we get shafted if 1 Town dies and there were 2 cultists, which looks far too likely to me.

So we're basically forcing the killer to kill Cult. I think that would be really good for the town.



Regardless, all this numbercrunching is all good and nice, but our first priority is to lynch scum. It doesn't even matter that much what kind of scum, just scum will do.

As for the questions, you've given me pretty much all info that I wanted, Jellyboy. Thanks for that.

The reason I'm interested is because I find Cults rather fascinating. I think they add an extra dimension to the game. They're annoying as hell, but they are interesting.

[Zindaras]

Woah, I missed an entire page.

>snippersnappers<

Hmm...

*considers*

Yeah, you've got a point with the numbers. I was mainly for lynching a killer because that would be a situation where it is possible for us not to have to rely on a cross-kill to win.

The whole point is that there's still, from my point of view, only a 50% chance that klebbybuns recruited last night. 6 people left. 1 already is Cult, so 5. I know I didn't get recruited, so 4. 2 Killers, so only a 50% chance of there being another Cultist. And I'm not entirely sure how much I trust klebbybuns's scumdars, as they have already attempted to recruit two scumbags before last night. I would, personally, be quite surprised if there's still two Cultists left.

What is mostly making me wonder is the fact that this Cult seems to have a 100% success chance on townies, which is very much broken, in my ever-so-humble opinion.

In general, I agree. Cultists are insanely difficult to lynch, simply because before recruitment, they were pro-town.

However, I do think somebody was recruited to the cult on Night One (or else spec/kleb would have had a third "X is scum" accusation), so we

should

be able to analyze people's play from Day Two, Day Three, and Day Four to search for one cultist. If there was a successful recruit on Night Four, there is really not much we can do but hope we lynch that person through happenstance, or hope that they are suddenly pushing a subtle pro-cult agenda today which could tip us off.

As I said, I don't think we should be looking for Cult, specifically, but rather for scum. Identify as many scum as possible, then decide who to lynch.

I have been considering mass-claiming for a while. What do others think about this? This could feasibly help us pinpoint scum of some sort. Even if this catches us killing scum, say, that will in turn narrow down the choices for possible cult-scum.

I'm game.

[MrBuddyLee]

What is mostly making me wonder is the fact that this Cult seems to have a 100% success chance on townies, which is very much broken, in my ever-so-humble opinion.

Busted.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm going to go so far as to call this game right now, with 80% confidence:

CES: cult, recruited night one
Zindy: cult, recruited last night
nightson: scum
amb/pj/lowell: two townies and one vig/sk

Now we can discuss how to proceed.

[Zindaras]

What is mostly making me wonder is the fact that this Cult seems to have a 100% success chance on townies, which is very much broken, in my ever-so-humble opinion.

Busted.

All your theories work from that assumption. A Cult Recruiter without a 100% success chance can't claim Cop simply because they do not know whether they failed due to their target being scum or due to a percentage chance.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Only if he knows, Zind, only if he knows.

Also, MBL, work harder. I'm not scum.

[Zindaras]

Only if he knows, Zind, only if he knows.

But why would he know?

In all the Cults I've worked with, I've never seen that kind of a version.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What? The standard cult recruiter has a 100% success rate. It could've been changed without him knowing. I don't see what you're saying.

[Zindaras]

What? The standard cult recruiter has a 100% success rate. It could've been changed without him knowing. I don't see what you're saying.

You mean that the success percentage wouldn't be mentioned in the PM?

Claiming an investigative role as Cult really only makes sense if you know you have a 100% success rate on Town, because if you don't, you wouldn't know the difference between failing on town and targeting scum (which would auto-fail). Therefore, claiming investigative role when you don't know if your failures are scum or town is practically suicidal.

[Zindaras]

EBWOP: The standard I'm used to is as following:

Cult: The cult is done in a wide variety of ways, but in essence, the cult picks a player (the most common version is either they can only get basic town, or have only a % to convert) each night and tries to convert them. The Cult wins if they are more than 50% of the town. Cultists usually can talk to each other at night.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, the standard here is a 100% success rate, so unless explicitly mentioned, I would assume it to be the case.

[Nightson]

CES: cult, recruited night one
Zindy: cult, recruited last night
amb: scum
nightson/pj/lowell: two townies and one vig/sk

Fixed.


Zindie, cults have 100% success rates when recruited townies. it's the way cults work. Having a 50% chance would be like mafia having a 50% chance for their kill to go through, not going to happen.

[Zindaras]

Zindie, cults have 100% success rates when recruited townies. it's the way cults work. Having a 50% chance would be like mafia having a 50% chance for their kill to go through, not going to happen.

Cults are vastly more powerful than the Mafia, for the exact reasons Jellyboy mentioned. It's very difficult to find a Cultist.

This is the first game I've played on this site with a Cult in it, and I hadn't bothered reading the Cult Roles for the games Jelly linked to. Therefore, I was under the assumption that Cults had been powered down on this site as well.

Apparently, they haven't been. That's rather saddening.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

But Zindy, do realize that Cult recruiters don't have the advantage of numbers to begin with.