Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Lowell's question is too hilarious to be fake, so it's probably Zind(although the other targets might suggest amb.)

FoS: Courk

for needlessly confusing the town earlier.

[petroleumjelly]

Skruffs asked that question, CES. And Skruffs is partnered with Zindaras.



Too blatant of a mistake to be scummy, however, seeing as there was no way you weren't going to get called on it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I wasn't talking about Skruffs' question(although I realize that my FoS suggested that I was), but about Lowell's question.

[Skruffs]

I dunno about CES's passing off of Lowell's 'what's a cult' statement. Not that I'm saying either of them are cults, but it seems like a few people are trying to corner me and Zindaras as being cult.. when we aren't.
On the plus side, if they think we're cult, then they think we're not mafia, because mafia probably can't be recruited. So that's a bonus.

I have ap ost I'll be putting in on monday

[petroleumjelly]

Well, that still doesn't make sense, CES.

SpectrumVoid and Klebian

also

tried to feign ignorance as to how a cult works. They were the Cult Leader. I wouldn't universalize that reasoning.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Lowell's question was hilarious, dude. It was awesome. You can't just go and blindly compare to spec/kleb's actions.

[petroleumjelly]

Lowell, how well did you read Wheel of Time Mafia?

[ambic]

Is anyone like me thinking that Nightson/The Silent Speaker could be mafia? I've been reading through their posts this game, and in the last game day or so, I get a direct feeling they might be. It's not anything I can nail down - at least yet, but certainly seems worth pursuing.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Killing cultists is preferable at this point.

Vote: Zindaras

[ambic]

Notice I didnt say anything about killing? We shouldnt ignore everyone else in the game just because 'we' intend to lynch cult. Figuring out who the mafia are sooner rather than later is still important, even if we decide not to lynch in that direction.

[petroleumjelly]

*sigh*

I am still waiting for MBL to return so I can speak with him. We didn't get too much discussion done during the last night, except for what I have generally posted at the beginning of today. We pretty much decided that if spec/kleb turned out to be Cult Leader, that CES/Mgm was our best guess at who would have been culted N1, and also that there was probably only 1 mafia left as well as a forced Vig/SK, while leaning towards the Vig. Alternatively, we decided that if spec/kleb were in fact a Gunsmith, there were likely 2 mafiates left, which probably would include either Amb or CES/Mgm, and probably some other person that we had previously not paid enough attention to.

I still think CES/Mgm has the greatest chance of being scum (I can see him both as Mafia or Cult at this point), so that is probably where my vote will end up today.

I would like to hear something substantive from Lowell/Spront.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm town, Djelibeybi.

Why don't you restate your case against me, so I might be able to convince you of my glorious townieness? Because I don't think the town can afford to kill me.

[petroleumjelly]

Stupid appeals to pity. *sigh*

Well, to be fair, that was just what MBL and found the most likely after the game went into night initially, so I haven't really critically examined your posts since the game reopened. I will make a case for you to respond to, although I will clearly need to reserve more time for this game, especially since one wrong lynch probably guarantees a town loss.

But if you turn out to be cult, I seriously might cry. I am

so

tired of losing to cults, and this game would be especially painful since MBL and I managed to figure it out before it could catch the town by

complete

surprise. Cults do not deserve pity.

In fact, I will try to (when I find the time) make a list of the top two people MBL/I think could be mafia, the top two people MBL/I think could have been recruited N1, and the top two people MBL/I think could have been a (possibly failed attempt) recruit from N4. I would encourage everybody to do the same sometime soon.

[ambic]

glorious townieness

I read that as glorkious townieness which is say very little townieness indeed....

[Zindaras]

MBL wouldn't have a choice. He knew the risks before he agreed to partner with me.

Mkay, I buy that...

MBL

, what's your general opinion of Cults?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Stupid appeals to pity. *sigh*

One smiley does not an appeal to emotion make.

[Lowell]

Lowell, how well did you read Wheel of Time Mafia?

Not well enough...


Ok sorry for the "ridiculous question", all. Just chill out. It was an honest question. And, if you're worried I'm trying to "play" you all by faking ignorance than (1) thanks for the credit, and (2) just IGNORE IT and move on. I'm not saying I need to be absolved here.

I'm still working on my read over the past few days. There's a lot of info to be had from yesterday's lynch, I'm sure, if only I can figure out what...

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL

, what's your general opinion of Cults?

I don't like em, but as I proved in WoT, if I get recruited, I play along to help my team win. I'm 95% sure I could have persuaded PJ to play along if we'd been recruited, but thankfully we weren't and the cult leader's dead. I imagine PJ's threat helped yesterday lol.

I'm reading carefully to see who's expressing phony curiosity about the cult--they're the remaining cultist(s). I also think scum is going to be the one(s) trying a little too hard to find cult instead of scum at this point. Which would be PJ , so I'm gonna have to go with 2nd place, and there are a few leads to look at there.

[Zindaras]

Hmm, good, an honest answer.

One question, PJ. I know you dislike Cults, I've seen that for now, but, from a metagamin perspective, I'm interested in reading a game where the Cult got outed by one of its members. Have you ever outed a Cult befoe?

In my opinion, it is best to get rid of Mafia now. It forces the remaining Mafiate, if there is one, to attempt to kill Cult or risk losing (as there could, hypothetically, be 2 Cultists by now). And if it'd be the last Mafiate, we get in a position of 3 Town, 2 Cult, at which point we're not even in that bad a position, as long as we lynch Cult on the first try.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Are you forgetting we also have a SK/forced vig? (Probably the former.)

[Zindaras]

...

Yes.

Well, assuming there's one Mafiate, one SK, and 1-2 Cult left, we are, essentially, screwed.

Regardless, the theory works the same way as I suggested in the possibility of there being two Mafia remaining.

We lynch one killer today, thus forcing the other killer role to kill Cult next night. Then, we have to lynch the other killing role, thus leaving us with 1 Cult and 2 Townies alive, at worst.

Lynching Cult would then require one of the killers to cross-kill and immediately puts us in lylo.

So there are a few things to state:

1: We

must

lynch scum today. If we lynch town, it's gg, as there'll be only one or two townies remaining, against two killing roles and a Cultist. If we want to stand a chance at that point, we need a double cross-kill and only one Cultist.

2: Lynching killing scum would then require the other killing role to attempt to kill Cult. There's a chance of there being 2 Cult and a chance of there being 1 Cult. The killer won't be able to take the chance of there being 2 Cult and thus will have to look for Cult to kill.

3: Lynching Cult puts us in the situation of there being 5 players going into Night. 1 Mafia, 1 SK, 0-1 Cult, 2-3 Town. There will be 3 players left standing at the dawn of the next day, except if the SK and the Mafia target the same players. In this situation, we

must

have 2 Town left alive at the dawn of tomorrow to stand a chance. Therefore, if there's no more Cult remaining, one of the killers

must

cross-kill the other for us to stand a chance. If there is one Cultist remaining,

both

killers

must

kill other scum to stand a chance.

2 is in all ways preferable to 3, as in 3 we rely wholly on scum cross-killing. 2 doesn't.

Cessy's saying we should go with 3. Ergo, Cessy's looking real bad to me right now.

[Zindaras]

EBWOP: Elaborator on 2.

Four options:

1: Killer kills town, there's one Cultist left. We go into tomorrow with 4 people left standing, 2 town, 1 Cult, 1 killer. Lynch killer-->Lynch Cult is the only way we can win.
2: Killer kills town, there are two Cultists left. GG.
3: Killer kills Cult, no more cultists left. 4 people left standing, 3 town, 1 killer. Not a bad place to be.
4: Killer kills Cult, there's one Cultist left. See one.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Do you realize that in the situation of Killer, Killer, Town, the town has a decent chance of winning? We don't need 2 townies to live.

If we lynch cult, we only get shafted if 1 Killer and 1 Town dies and there were 2 cultists or 2 Town die and there were 2 cultists.

If we lynch Killer, we get shafted if 1 Town dies and there were 2 cultists, which looks far too likely to me.

The thing is, we're going to have to rely on crosskills and right now we need to do something about the biggest threat and that's in all probability the cult.

[petroleumjelly]

One question, PJ. I know you dislike Cults, I've seen that for now, but, from a metagamin perspective, I'm interested in reading a game where the Cult got outed by one of its members. Have you ever outed a Cult befoe?

I have been in two finished games which had cults. I'll just give synopses of both games (which you can check on for verification if you'd like).

1.) ScumChat Mini Mafia, found here. In that game I happened to be a Serial Killer (which probably won't do anything to help how people view me in this game, but tough noogies), and the town learned that there was a Cult on Night Two due to me nightkilling a cultist, so the cult was never traditionally "outed" by anybody.

As it happened, the Cult Leader [Logicticus] had tried and failed to recruit me on Night Two, but probably didn't want to go after me on Day Two because if I could get him lynched instead, the Cult would have lost immediately. I don't quite recall how I crafted my fake-claim, but I think "bandwagoning" let me "Doctor protect" people, and "posting in CapsLock" let me "protect people from Cult".

Anyhow, the Cult Leader tried to fake-claim a "1-Shot Day Investigation" on me on Day 4 to get me lynched, and at the time, his partners were Maz Medias and Fritzler. Not only did I completely tear apart the "1-Shot Investigation" claim and expose him as Cult Leader, but I caught both the other cultists in one fell swoop, and even though the cultists could have forced a No-Lynch, one of them [Fritzler] hammered his own Cult Leader when he realized the day was lost.

It turned out I had a "back-up" Serial Killer, which Fritz/Maz failed to recruit on Night Five, but Fritz also had a role-block ability which he used on me. He then offered to recruit the remaining townie to the Cult if they would lynch me, which they did. So I got lynched and lost the game.

2.) My other game with a cult was Wheel of Time Mafia, found here. In that game, I was Rand Al'Thor, a town Vigilante. That game, very unfortunately, was a "no reveal" game, which in turn caused me to dismiss the possibility of a cult multiple times (since not revealing who dead cultists are would be serious bastard-moddery). It turns out that even though some 23 players died, not one cultist ever died (even though Macros assured me they would have been revealed as a cultist if they had, though I'm not sure I believe him). Needless to say, I was completely taken aback when I was told the game was over with 7 players alive and that a cult of 4 members had won, and I was quite pissed.

As I noted earlier, in that game (as well as ScumChat Mini Mafia, and

this

game), the Cult Leaders claimed exceedingly vague or ill-flavored investigatory roles. I realized this to be a disconcerting pattern for Cult Leaders to have non-explained information in other games as well (such as Ibaesha in Random Mafia, which I only really know about because I conversed with Ibby on a regular basis).

So to answer your question, I have

not

really outed a cult before, although I do try to keep it in the back of my mind as a possibility. As soon as MBL expressed the same concern (except on a serious note, instead of idle speculation), I took a second look at spec/kleb's actions during the game and decided that they

really

fit the bill of how I would expect a Cult Leader to act after they have failed a number of recruitments.

***

I'll have to look at the exact numbers for lynching v nightkilling, but at a cursory glance my thoughts were pretty much as follows:

If we lynch a killer today, that leaves only 1 kill for tonight (unless there are two Mafia), which will leave us with 4 players tomorrow. If there is a second scum killer and we don't lynch them, the town loses. If there are two cultists and the second killer doesn't kill the other, the town loses (since there will be 2 cult, 1 killer, 1 town).

Putting the town with 4 players tomorrow and 1 live killer seems like a horrible move for town. I think the town is much better served allowing for the killers to kill each other or a second cultist, leaving the town with

3

members tomorrow. In that case, we will hopefully have 2 town v 1 killer, or 2 town v 1 cultist. I think that's the best we can hope for, but again, I suppose I can look at the numbers in more detail later.

[petroleumjelly]

^ As a note, since I may have misinterpreted your question:

1.) In ScumChat Mini Mafia, all the cultists constantly protected their Cult Leader and other cultists (except for when Fritzler gave up and hammered his own Cult Leader,

but

with the knowledge that he could just role-block me anyways).
2.) In Wheel of Time Mafia, all the cultists constantly protected their Cult Leader and other cultists (as two of them had investigatory roles, and essentially fixed their results so as to essentially "clear" the Cult Leader and themselves).