Mini 392: Jungle Republic - Game over!

[Thestatusquo]

Too bad I am vanilla town, that changes quite a bit.

[Zindaras]

Too bad I am vanilla town, that changes quite a bit.

It changes nothing in the respect that it will still hold up that there is one boatload of scum on that wagon.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not saying I find Cadre's timing on the wagon any more suspicious than I find any other's of the first four voters. I just find you, over the whole game, to be suspicious.

And why would that be?

Though you do have a point that TSQ could be Islamist as well. However, this doesn't necessarily change anything regarding the numbers.

He could be an islamist,and the other islamists are trying to plant the idea in our heads he's a commie so he dosn't get lynched today. Or he could be an innocent townie, and the actual communist and/or islamists could be trying to plant false ideas in our heads now to take advantage of at some point in the future, when we really do want to lynch the communist. Either way, I don't trust how sure both you and CES seem to be about his alignment.

Frankly, if you think someone might be a communist, the best thing to do might be to bandwagon them today and make them claim communist to avoid getting lynched; if we can pin down the identity of the communist today it should help the odds of an eventual town victory.

[Norinel]

The following was apparently intended to be a reply by Yosarian to a post by Norinel that occupied this space:

Are you serious? It's lynch Islamist or lose. If the Islamists can pile on to a game-winning bandwagon as one, any non-Islamist voting for any other non-Islamist costs the town the game. Also, if we assume they can do that, the fact that they haven't jumped on Zindaras yet would mean that at least one of CES or Zindaras is Islamist. It's curious that nobody else has mentioned that yet.

Bandwagon with FOS's, obv. No one should actually be voting at this point.

I agree that either Zinderas is islamist, CES is islamist, or the islamists don't think they can speedlynch right now for some reason. (Say, because one of them is lurking and not around).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, if we assume they can do that, the fact that they haven't jumped on Zindaras yet would mean that at least one of CES or Zindaras is Islamist. It's curious that nobody else has mentioned that yet.

It's not really true though. Considering how active I am, attempting a quicklynch would not be a smart move and if the very unlikely is true and Zindaras is town, just like I am, then it doesn't look like it would be worth the risk.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Because it makes more sense, d'oh.

No, it doesn't?

This game is pretty lurkariffic. Have you not noticed that ever since you replaced in, the only real posting going on came from you, me and Yos? Sprontalic had a good post in between, but the rest is just sitting on their behinds and watching on.

Norinel has posted at least as much as Spront, Kingpin is getting replaced and TSQ is scum.

Zind, stop talking about ongoing games, because I can't respond to that. Did any of your references include claimed cops?

What I said in Reverse was that scum would try desperately to get scum revived Day 1 in fear of a Cop, and that they would

They would what?

No, I investigated someone because he was the second vote on a lynch. And he was scum. This is an approach that I use a lot when I've got Cop roles, and it tends to work out for me.

The scum on those forums sucked? You got lucky? There's nothing scummy about a second vote, hell I've argued that not placing a second vote can be scummy before.

You're doing nothing but making a case. You're not saying anything about other things. You're just bent single-mindedly on my lynch.

The important word in my quote was "now".

This is crap. LyingBrian cast the fifth vote, for one. For two, it cannot possibly be harmless if there's guaranteed scum on it. How can something which led to the death of a townie possibly be harmless?

What does LyingBrian's vote have to do with it? And scum can also do harmless things. The death of a townie was not the logical result of the bandwagon. Holding it responsible for the death is nonsensical.

And just how would I "know" that LB was a communist? Are you accusing me of being a communist now?

No. But LyingBrian was quite scummy, you know?

CES's whole plan that we can somehow make the communist feel comfertable and by doing so manipulate him into killing islamists has several obveous problems with it, and even if it didn't it dosn't match the way CES has actually acted today.

It's not really a plan. I simply asked myself whether it would be pro-town to share my suspicion of Thestatusquo and I felt it wasn't

Frankly, if you think someone might be a communist, the best thing to do might be to bandwagon them today and make them claim communist to avoid getting lynched; if we can pin down the identity of the communist today it should help the odds of an eventual town victory.

Claiming to be a Communist could only lead to them losing. The Communist can only win through getting the Islamists killed before the final day and then getting a Townie lynched. Your suggestion is dumb and anti-town.

[Yosarian2]

The Communist can only win through getting the Islamists killed before the final day and then getting a Townie lynched.

That's actually not true; if we can get the communist to claim today, it helps the town's odds, but the communist could still win. I'm not going to say any more, because I'm not going to suggest stratagy to the communist.

[Zindaras]

And why would that be?

What I have accused you earlier of.

He could be an islamist,and the other islamists are trying to plant the idea in our heads he's a commie so he dosn't get lynched today. Or he could be an innocent townie, and the actual communist and/or islamists could be trying to plant false ideas in our heads now to take advantage of at some point in the future, when we really do want to lynch the communist. Either way, I don't trust how sure both you and CES seem to be about his alignment.

*shrugs*

The assumption isn't necessary for the numbers to work out. I'll admit that I may have been a bit too quick on saying he's a Commie though.

No, it doesn't?

Your entire theory relies on the idea that I've been setting up a germy lynch ever since I first joined into the game.

Norinel has posted at least as much as Spront,

I have not heard his thoughts about the ongoing debate at all.

Kingpin is getting replaced and TSQ is scum.

Is being scum a free out not to have to do anything?

Zind, stop talking about ongoing games, because I can't respond to that.

Doesn't defeat the point that I have no metagaming perspective on Nai and therefore I cannot know how he plays normally. The only game I played with him previously was Mini 362, Open Role Bastard, in which he also played aggressively (though I only got to play with him for one day).

Did any of your references include claimed cops?

I just said that I was a Townie when I did that.

They would what?

Different setup, new rules. Instead of lynching people, people got revived.

The scum on those forums sucked?

Nope.

You got lucky?

I've consistently used voting analysises to catch scum, here, there, everywhere. It works extremely well.

There's nothing scummy about a second vote, hell I've argued that not placing a second vote can be scummy before.

No, not inherently. It's just a matter of looking at the specifics.

The important word in my quote was "now".

There is no future, if you get what you want.

What does LyingBrian's vote have to do with it? And scum can also do harmless things. The death of a townie was not the logical result of the bandwagon. Holding it responsible for the death is nonsensical.

Would ShadowLurker have gotten lynched if those first votes hadn't been on him?

Also, good to see you're responding to all my points.

[Norinel]

mod:

It looks like someone edited my post 478 instead of quoting it, and I don't remember everything I said there. If we can't reconstruct it, could we at least figure out who editted and put it as there thoughts instead of mine?

Done. As soon as someone claims responsibility (and please do) I will attribute the content to that person.

I have not heard his thoughts about the ongoing debate at all.

Which part of it? Or by heard do you mean listened to?

[Kelly Chen]

Vote Count

1 - Zindaras (Cogito Ergo Sum)

not voting: Thestatusquo, KingPin, Zindaras, Yosarian2, Norinel, sprontalic

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch!

Note: If the next player lost is not an Islamist, the Islamists win.

As soon as I can get a replacement for KingPin I will lay down a deadline by which point the town must either have lynched someone, or (by default) allow the Communist another opportunity to nightkill.

[Zindaras]

Which part of it? Or by heard do you mean listened to?

I don't know how you view it at all. I don't know how you feel about CES, about me, about how the debate's going, you know, everything.

Oh, by the way, technically, we can No Lynch this day, as the Islamists can't win at night either.

The only problem there would be if the Commie'd suddenly decide to kill someone.

[Zindaras]

Note: I'm not suggesting we actually no lynch, as I don't think it'd be a good idea, but I'm reminding people that the possibility is there.

[Thestatusquo]

Why would you do that if you don't think it's a good idea?

[Zindaras]

It's mainly for the possible situation wherein we don't know what to do and want more time, but the deadline is looming.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

So we don't just lynch you when we run out of time? At least be honest about your motives, Z.

[Zindaras]

*shrugs*

If we lynch anyone today, it should be a well thought-out decision.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No, if we lynch anyone today, it should be an Islamist.

[Zindaras]

Well, d'oh.

A well thought-out decision is most likely to lead to an Islamist lynch.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It should be clear that Yosarian is the one who accidentally editted Norinel's post, btb.
"Zinderas"+mod powers+"islamists"=Yosarian2.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, crap. Yeah, that was me who edited that post; I must have hit the edit button instead of the quote button by mistake. Sorry about that.

[Norinel]

Which part of it? Or by heard do you mean listened to?

I don't know how you view it at all. I don't know how you feel about CES, about me, about how the debate's going, you know, everything.

My general feelings about you haven't changed a whole lot. Right now you're going through some of the same arguments with CES that you did with me earlier in this Day, and they still aren't convincing me the second time around.

As for CES, I can't entirely eliminate the possibility that when he replaced and had the advantage of a clean slate to pick any suspicion he wanted, he picked you because me voting for you (Or vice versa) is the most likely townie on townie vote. On the other hand, that would mean that you're town and he isn't, which is still a bit of a stretch for me.

As for the debate, we're doing a pretty good job. Once everyone's participating and it's not just a bunch of one-on-one fights, the debate will be going in the right direction. But also, I did a minireread of the last couple pages, and here are some things that came up:

1) His part in germy's lynch
(snip)

1) This is ridiculous because I've already had this discussion with Zindaras. We both had ongoing reasons for voting him. Yes the lynch went a little too quickly, but 99% of that was because germy self voted. Surely if he's the most suspicious, it's not unreasonable to put him at lynch -1 straight away. The fact of the matter is, from memory (since I can't be bothered checking), all that was on germy's wagon had a reason to be on it. You can go into the whole "germy is the easiest random lynch for scum" business but then you're just messing with your own mind. There is no factor on that wagon that can discriminate between scum and town. Obviously for scum, germy was town...so he's a perfect target for a lynch. For townies, germy looks scummy as hell, so he's a reasonable target for a lynch too. So both town and scum were just as likely to jump onto that wagon.

Hence I think this point is null.

Besides if you believed this, why don't you point out the 3 other people who were also on that wagon?

Emphasis mine.

If you think about it Norinel's idea about germy's lynch can just as easily be applied to SL's lynch.

This is absolutely wrong, since half of my point about germy's lynch is that Islamists could be much more forward about it in the late game, since they're two away from winning.

Actually, that was exactally the point I was trying to make, which was just that Norinel's argument that (to paraphrase) "most/all the islamists would have been on the germy wagon, so we should lynch someone who was on that wagon" was a questionable, and perhaps scummy, attempt to narrow the list of possible suspects.

I never said this. In fact, I already said I never said this, back in post 394:

1. I don't advocate lynching randomly from the [germy] bandwagoners. I don't even directly advocate lynching from the bandwagoners today. What I've been trying to say that you've been twisting around is that we shouldn't give everyone on the germy bandwagon a free pass for doing so.

In the endgame? Not at all. As I've said before, as of Day 3 the Islamists were from a day game perspective a group that needed to lynch two people outside their group in a row in order to win the game. Yes, things get a little more complicated if we do pull off an Islamist lynch today, but the lack of kill's effect on the day game strategy isn't nearly as important as them acting as a group (Like mafia), knowing most everyone's alignment (Like mafia), and being one or two vote-hopping lynches away from an outright win (Like mafia).

I've used my speculation all game as an incentive to crack down harder on lurkers. You don't see me attacking people merely because they post like I would expect Islamists to post.

Do you agree that Islamists in endgame will behave more like Mafia than like Survivors? You may explain your answer, but that's a yes or no question.

[Zindaras]

Do you agree that Islamists in endgame will behave more like Mafia than like Survivors? You may explain your answer, but that's a yes or no question.

Yes and no. The only real difference between a "normal" lylo and this lylo is that in this situation, we can hypothetically no lynch and come back tomorrow. However, that's completely irrelevant, as the situation would be entirely the same.

I would like to note, however, that a Survivor would act the same as Mafia during endgame, as he simply needs one lynch to win, and the same goes for Mafia.

The difference between Survivors and Mafia lies in the fact that Survivors don't have a nightkill, and Mafia does. In an endgame, nightkills are completely irrelevant and thus, the difference between Survivors and Mafia is nullified.

So I would argue that the Islamists would behave like Survivors, who would behave like Mafia, in this endgame.

[Kelly Chen]

Apeiron replaces KingPin.

Thanks!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yay! Go Apeiron! Vote for Zislamist!

[sprontalic]

I'm sorry for being inactive and lurking, but thing is all these pbpa is really hurting my head and still we're not really going anywhere. At this point I suggest we lynch Yossarian2 instead of Zindaras. I'm not convinced that Zindaras is scum although I am rather convinced that Yossarian is. I think we should lynch the person that most thing is scummy as opposed to one that only a couple think are scummy. The fact that no one else has voted for Zindaras tells me that no one (apart from CES) is really convinced that he's an islamist.

Anyway, I'm gonna address a few things.

Dude, bandwagons are a fact of life in Day 1s. This is covered in my point 3. And LyingBrian is who turned the bandwagon(a good thing) into a lynch(a bad thing).

It's true that bandwagons happen all the time in day 1, but on our specific day one, the wagon went out of control from the word go. Usually in day ones, you get a couple of wagons which start and stop and then eventually you'll settle on a wagon that most think is correct. The question wasn't really that the lynch was wrong as day 1 lynches are often wrong, that's true. But fact is, no other wagon really happened in day 1, all the attention was focused on 1 person. If the islamists and communists both pushed for that wagon at once (I think that the islamists first pushed the wagon, and then the commies went to back them up) then that's a good portion of the community pushing for a particular person. You can deny the fact that the logic behind the wagon is stupid, but the reason it could even turn into a lynch was because so many people advocated it. I'm sure you've heard the logic that a lie can be turned into a truth when enough people make it one. That's what I think happened hence the incredibly high number of scums on that wagon (5/12 people advocating for a specific wagon does hold a lot of weight).

I think it is the day before lynch or lose. (

regarding whether placing germy at -1 to lynch quickly is reasonable or not

)

I don't see why it is. Surely no one is stupid enough to speed lynch them TSQ style since that's scummy as hell, free lynch at lylo (which is definately not a bad thing, at least for non-scums anyway). If we ignore the fact that germy hammered himself (which as it turns out, is the worst mistake he could've made since he's put the town in a very very bad position) I strongly believe that the day would've lasted much longer, hence more time to justify/void the germy wagon.

And can I just say that I'm sick of these "I think this" with nothing backing up the statement. CES did it when he said "I disagree with your point 2", now you kinda did it with the "I think it is the day before lylo". You're not going far in terms of convincing me of anything if you do that.

@Yossarian2: I think Cadre was very suspicious. Ok lets just say that gut feeling is a perfectly legitimate reason for the start of day 1, the fact was I "asked" him about his gut feeling and even pointed out why there absolutely nothing to support his feeling, even trying to point otherwise...he continued to ignore it and go with "his gut" all the way through to the lynch.

That

is highly suspicious because you

don't

lynch anyone out of pure gut feeling even on day 1.

What does LyingBrian's vote have to do with it? And scum can also do harmless things. The death of a townie was not the logical result of the bandwagon. Holding it responsible for the death is nonsensical.

Uh actually the death of a townie was the logical result of that bandwagon, since it's so packed full of craplogic that the wagon is the worst smelling wagon you can ever see.

@Zindaras: I don't think no lynch is the best course of action today. We need to kill the next person ourselves. Leaving it for the commie is too big a risk to take. Besides if the commie no kills again then we're in the same position as now, it doesn't help anything.

This is absolutely wrong, since half of my point about germy's lynch is that Islamists could be much more forward about it in the late game, since they're two away from winning.

Two away from lynch is not the same as one away from lynch. If Islamists piled on in 2 away from lynch then they've exposed themselves, allowing them to be lynched in subsequent days. How is that beneficial to them? Add the fact that germy was scummy as hell and you have yourself a WIFOM. On the one hand you have Islamists/Commies that want an easy lynch, on the other you have townies that geniunely want to lynch a commie and they thought germy was the last one. So which one is it? How can you tell?

I've always though that you were advocating seeing those on germy's wagon as more likely suspects as those that weren't. Fact is it makes no difference, and IMO exploring this prospect is simply a red herring. If not then, we're on the same wavelength.

I just read a bit further and noticed that you said that scums on the germy wagon would defend themselves by saying "germy was the obvious choice". Again this is a wifom. You have the scum who says "it's the obvious choice" as a defence, but then the town who says "it's the obvious choice" because they geniunely thought it was. If they are both pressured, surely they'd raise the same argument. Again how do you discriminate between the two just on that issue alone?

Now that Kingpin has been replaced and everyone's around I think it's time to throw another wagon into the mix.

Vote: Yossarian2