Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[petroleumjelly]

How much did you talk with SpectrumVoid on N1? I just want the general direction of your discussion, please.

[Zindaras]

Pay more attention. If spec/kleb are the Cult Leader, then they tried to recruit Pooky/Adele N2 and failed, and tried to recruit Glork/MoS N3 and failed. That means they only had a successful recruit on N1, meaning there would only be two cultists in the game. It is entirely possible for the cult to just be plain missed so far as nightkills go.

In my experience, Cults usually target experienced players Night 0. People like Yos, StD, Ibby, TSQ, they're usually prime Cult targets. They're all dead.

Indeed, it's not impossible that a two-member Cult survived this long. However, there's one point to be made about Cults and that's that they're broken if they have a 100% success rate.

Furthermore, you seriously need to at least glance over WoT Mafia. That was something like a 30 player game, and over the course of seven days and eight nights, not one cultist was nightkilled or lynched, even though the Cult Leader claimed to have some sort of information, and two of the cultists had claimed information roles (i.e. what you would think would be excellent nightkill targets for scum). A game with 17 players missing a maximum of two cultists for three nights and three days is more than possible, so far as I am concerned.

I don't check up on older games. I simply play from my own experience, and that is that Cults have a heck of a time staying hidden. I've seen it happen twice: once when the Cult converted a Mafia reverse-miller who had fake claimed Cop, who proceeded to stab his Don (ironically, me) in the back. Glork should be familiar with this game, as it is quite famous. The other instance was a Revive Cult, which only stayed hidden because people were being horrendously stupid.

In all other games wherein I have experienced a Cult win, at least one Cult member died before that. In Ghost Mafia, it was Glork. In Lunatic Mafia, it was ben 50-50.

That's it as far as Cult wins are concerned (Cult losses are obviously irrelevant, as Cult would have to die for Cult to lose).

If spec/kleb come up cult at this point, Zindie, you are starting to look like a likely cultist along with them, of those left in the game.

*shrugs*

Quite a conclusion-jump.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Original Roll String: 1d8

1 8-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote: Lowell/Sprontalic

I'm a cop, I got them guilty about 60 seconds ago.

[petroleumjelly]

I don't get this cult speculation. You're saying that a cult leader would fail a recruitment and thus conclude that his recruitment is scum? How does this follow? Well, I guess, I should ask, what happens when a cultist tries to recruit scum? I've only played in one game with cult, and that was on another forum, and when cult recruited scum, a cultist died... But I guess it's not the same on this forum? (Just a note: the mod of that game is a regular player on these forums as well)

Apologies that I didn't answer this sooner, I thought I had.

I have seen quite a few games with a Cults on this forum, and I currently cannot think of a game where a Cult died for trying to recruit scum.

When cults try to recruit scum, they are often told that their recruitment failed. I would say that 70-80% of the time, that is because the person they tried to recruit is scum. The cult then usually tries to act as if they have an information role of some sort in order to lynch the failed recruit, which in turn makes them look more likely to be town, while also giving them another night of recruiting. If you would like examples of Cult Leaders acting like they have information because of failed recruitments, see:

1.) ScumChat Mini Mafia: This post, where Logicticus the Cult Leader tried to get me lynched (I was SK, as it happens) because he had failed to recruit me on Night Two.

2.) Wheel of Time Mafia: This post, where Tamuz the Cult Leader tried to get a wagon on Flay (who was scum), because he had failed to recruit him on Night Zero. He claimed more information

again

in this post, after he had failed to recruit Yosarian2 (who was scum) on some night. I won't look over the entire game to see if there were other instances.

3.) In Armlx's Random Mafia, Ibaesha the Cult Leader (at some point: I didn't read the game personally, so I am not sure where it is) pushed to lynch flyingm00c0w (who was scum) because she had failed to recruit him.

There are more examples of such things, but these were the first three that came to my mind.

[Lowell]

Vote: Lowell/Sprontalic

I'm a cop, I got them guilty about 60 seconds ago.

Uh, yikes! Umm, an insane cop maybe?

Is this a joke or are you being serious?

[Zindaras]

Lowell, are you even reading the thread? Glork has claimed Mafia.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Lowell, MoS's scum.

Jelly, I see dying when attempting to recruit scum as the standard. Really, there are too many "if"s for me to seriously consider a cult currently.

[petroleumjelly]

Curious.

I would like examples from you, CES.

[Mastermind of Sin]

No, I'm serious. I'm a daycop, and I just got you guilty.

Day 1, I got armlx/Zindaras innocent (random choice), and Day 2 Eon/Re2fan came up innocent as well (I had been suspicious of them day 1). I felt that it wasn't worth exposing myself as a cop to save them, although I did my best to say they were innocent and try to get someone else lynched. And now I just got you guilty.

May I also point out that Lowell's first response was to think that I had sanity issues, instead of thinking that I might be scum lying to get him lynched. This is something that scum are prone to do (believing claims that incriminate them but trying to find ways to make themselves innocent without disputing the claim). I think it's fairly obvious here that Lowell/Sprontalic are scum.

[Zindaras]

armlx/Zindaras?

That's an odd target.

Also, hate to be a metagamer, but I doubt that Courk would be so quick to send a PM.

I don't buy this for one moment.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Zindaras, MoS is Glrok.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I looked around a bit, Jelly, and I couldn't find many, so they are apparently not as common as I thought(then again, cult leaders aren't common anyhow and I didn't actually find a counterexample).

Choose Someone Else's Role did contain such a cult leader.

[Mastermind of Sin]

armlx/Zindaras?

That's an odd target.

Also, hate to be a metagamer, but I doubt that Courk would be so quick to send a PM.

I don't buy this for one moment.

read my post. I specified that it was a random choice. I used the dice function in my notes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Confess, scumbag!

[petroleumjelly]

I have done some quick and dirty background investigating into Courk's modding habits. I looked at all of her games she modded at Grey Labyrinth. For the games that were large enough to include a cult (hence, I will not include Two-Headed #1, as that only had 6 roles), here were the results:

1.) Football Mafia, first game modded. No cult.

No gunsmith.

2.) Clue Mafia, second game modded.

Cult

. There was a random chance that a cultist might die for a failed recruitment; scum were included in roles which could not be recruited, and they also fought with a Recruiting Masonry.

No gunsmith.

3.) Dating Game Mafia, third game modded.

Cult

. The cult could only recruit townies, and did not die for failed recruitments.

No gunsmith.

4.) Mafia MMV, fourth game modded. No cult.

No gunsmith.

5.) Star Trek Mafia, fifth game modded.

Cult.

Cult did not die for failed recruitments.

No gunsmith.

6.) WW2 Mafia, sixth game modded.

Cult.

Cult did not die for failed recruitments. There were quite a few weird roles in this game - but

no gunsmith.

For those interested, 2-Headed Mafia #1 also did not contain a gunsmith, but I would expect as much in a 6-role game anyways.

I would say Courk has a fair chance of throwing cults into games, and rarely kills off cult members for failed recruitments. She also has never used a gunsmith role, unless she has modded games elsewhere.

[petroleumjelly]

Note:

If there is a cult, I would say Mgm/CES are the more likely the cultist at this point (as opposed to Zindie). He has tried to rush the lynch on Glork, downplayed the possibility of a Vig, tried to quash the discussion on Cults, and made two separate (and untrue) arguments as to why there it is not likely for there to be a cult ("cults are not common" and "the norm is for cultists to die for failed recruitments"). Since first-time Mods almost never use a cult (simply because they cannot gauge how it will affect the game), I would say Courk is very much more likely than the average Mod to include a cult in any given game.

MBL and I originally were wondering if he was mafia scum for all his play this game, but I could see him as cult scum as well. He's probably just plain scum, although I'm not sure which kind.

[petroleumjelly]

Also (MBL and I are talking now), this game has very simple roles. Cop. Cop. Doctor. Role-Blocker. Townies. Regular Mafia. I am really not buying "Gunsmith".

Oh man, this game is so busted.

*goes off to do a jig*

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Jelly, I'm not really downplaying the possibility of a vig, as I'm essentially asking for any vig to claim. If you really believe there's a vig, that point of view will only be confirmed, no?

Are you seriously saying cults are common? I wouldn't say so. Especially with smaller games(including this one, it's only 17 players). And I said "I see dying when attempting to recruit scum as the standard.", which I do. Your misrepresentation of my second argument is noted.

I must admit that the 66% cult rate in Courk games is unsettling, but I'll stand by my point of view that lynching Glrok is a better move without a vig claim. The 0% gunsmith rate doesn't mean that much to me. It doesn't get used that often, but I'm sure Courk knows the role. I don't intend to lynch kleb on this evidence.

I get the feeling you're trying to scare the town into doing the wrong things, jelly, with the cult thing.

[Nightson]

Note:

If there is a cult, I would say Mgm/CES are the more likely the cultist at this point (as opposed to Zindie). He has tried to rush the lynch on Glork, downplayed the possibility of a Vig, tried to quash the discussion on Cults, and made two separate (and untrue) arguments as to why there it is not likely for there to be a cult ("cults are not common" and "the norm is for cultists to die for failed recruitments"). Since first-time Mods almost never use a cult (simply because they cannot gauge how it will affect the game), I would say Courk is very much more likely than the average Mod to include a cult in any given game.

MBL and I originally were wondering if he was mafia scum for all his play this game, but I could see him as cult scum as well. He's probably just plain scum, although I'm not sure which kind.

:goodposting:

Given Courk's modding history, I concur. This si probably what we're looking at.

ambic/RangeroftheNorth <-- mafia
The Silent Speaker/Nightson <--town
ChannelDelibird/Zindaras <-- town
Cogito Ergo Sum/Mgm <-- cult
Glork/Mastermind of Sin <-- mafia
klebian/spectrumvoid <-- cult leader
Lowell/sprontalic <-- town (presumably given likely scum numbers)
MrBuddyLee/petroleumjelly <--town

Also, this game is a lot easier to follow when almost everyone is dead.

I want to lynch either kleb/spec or Mgm/CES. If whoever we kill turns up town then Glork needs to be killed at night. If they come up cult than I think a vig should take out ambic or the other cult member and an SK can do whatever.

I'm going to go with a

vote: spec/kleb

as the likely cult leader.

[petroleumjelly]

Jelly, I'm not really downplaying the possibility of a vig, as I'm essentially asking for any vig to claim. If you really believe there's a vig, that point of view will only be confirmed, no?

Are you seriously saying cults are common? I wouldn't say so. Especially with smaller games(including this one, it's only 17 players). And I said "I see dying when attempting to recruit scum as the standard.", which I do. Your misrepresentation of my second argument is noted.

I must admit that the 66% cult rate in Courk games is unsettling, but I'll stand by my point of view that lynching Glrok is a better move without a vig claim. The 0% gunsmith rate doesn't mean that much to me. It doesn't get used that often, but I'm sure Courk knows the role. I don't intend to lynch kleb on this evidence.

I get the feeling you're trying to scare the town into doing the wrong things, jelly, with the cult thing.[/quote]

1.) You tried to downplay it until it was obvious I was not going to curl up and go away.

2.) I agree that the prior lack of using certain roles does not mean it will never be used by a given mod. But Courk seems extremely more likely to use alternate investigatory roles (I saw her use a Tracker quite a few times, for example) over a gunsmith. I mostly looked for gunsmiths to see how Courk deals with gunsmiths investigating Cops, but there were obviously no notes on this subject since Courk has never used ones.

3.) I am not necessarily advocating that we lynch spec/kleb. I would definitely like to see them respond. I am simply making sure that the town is aware that (especially with

this

Mod) a cult is a very real possibility, and that if it is anybody, it is most assuredly spec/kleb, and I will not lie that the more I think about, the more I think this is the case.

[MrBuddyLee]

If I was the least bit unsure about kleb/sv before this recent activity, the gunsmith claim removed just about the last speck of doubt.

The only question is what to do now. I think some number crunching is in order, and everyone should participate. The fundamental question is: does it make any sense to lynch cult right now instead of GlorkOs? My guess is no.

[Nightson]

How on Earth is a vig claiming beneficial to the town and not to cult and mafia?

[petroleumjelly]

^ Agree with MBL. We are probably much better off lynching Glork/MoS today, as this will not even change the number of kills (unless he is SK) since there is at least one more mafiate. Either the Vig/SK or the Mafia will probably be taking out spec/kleb.

If

they come up cult tomorrow, then this discussion will have been all well and good. If they do not, then there would be no harm done, since it would not have changed the outcome of today's lynch, and in all probability, the scum were probably going to kill spec/kleb tonight either way. Furthermore, if there is in fact a mafia group of 4, then we would be better off lynching GlorkOs in any case, so I think lynching them is the correct move in any situation.

The only thing this discussion has done is made sure that we are covering our bases. Even if we turn out to be wrong, I will not regret having done it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

1.) You tried to downplay it until it was obvious I was not going to curl up and go away.

I mentioned straight away that any vig should claim.

Dude, trackers are clearly more common than gunsmiths. Gunsmiths aren't really common, but they definitely occur.

If you're so sure we have a cult and a vig, then why don't get the vig to claim?