Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

FREUDIAN SLIP!

Vote: Glrok

(Also, I actually think he's scum, because of what PJ quoted in post 915, it's not something I see a pro-town player saying(unless he's a miller).)

[Glork]

Scums with abilities (such as a Mafia Roleblocker), investigation-immunity, or nightkill-immunity.

1.) Mafia RB is extremely unlikely, or else I would wager spec/kleb would have been role-blocked last night
2.) I will grant the possibility of GFness
3.) You think there are UNNK mafia against a SK? Doubtful. Forcing a SK to lynch mafia instead of having the ability to NK them, once again, is unbalanced.

1) I don't see why it's unlikely. If I were in the mafia, I would've just tried to kill Spec/Kleb last night. That seems like the much more logical solution -- you're only screwed if there's a second doc.
2) That's right, you will!
3) I was more thinking that the Serial Killer would be the unnightkillable scum.

[Glork]

Beh, fine, you caught me. I slipped up. (And now that I think about it more, what I meant to say was "...which I do *NOT* want us to rely on happening," but I did in fact slip up completely.)

I'm a mafia member. But I want to make a proposition to the town that will increase their chances of winning (by either getting myself intentionally crosskilled or getting the Serial Killer lynched today) and will increase my mafia's chances of winning (by either getting the SK killed, thus reducing the chances of a crosskill, or by forcing the SK to kill me tonight, thus ensuring that he does not kill my scumbuddy).

I say we slow things down just a bit and really try to figure out who the SK is. I do have one person in mind, and I'd definitely like to see that person lynched. If the town is going to lynch me, they're looking at 5 alive tomorrow, and like I said before, they'll likely have to lynch properly in the next two days.

I want us to try to lynch the SK today. If we mislynch, then the SK needs to kill me overnight (or claim tomorrow and try to force some kind of draw with one team or another). There'll be 5 alive, presumably with one Mafiate and 1 SK left. If we lynch correctly, we'll have 6 alive tomorrow, you can lynch me to get to 4 alive, and then you can No-Lynch or just try to figure out the last scum on that day.

Why is this beneficial for the town? It gives you guys a chance to go after someone without the burden of three straight days of lynch-perfection on your shoulders. If we stretch this out and forcd *EVERYONE* out of the woodwork, we'll all be able to find the SK more easily, and those townies left will have a shot at weeding out the other Mafia member. I've got my inkling, but I'm only going to make a strong case against one player/pair. This way, you can be pretty certain that they aren't mafia, and you won't have to worry about me skewing suspicions and whatnot based on who my unknown scumbuddy might be.


Okay, now that I'm already going to be late for my 12:00 class, I must be off. Consider the proposal. I'm pretty sure that it helps everybody except for the SK, but I suppose I understand if you shoot it down. The only way I can see this hurting the town is if we mislynch today, the SK decides *NOT* to kill me/MoS tonight, and then they try to make a deal with the scums to draw in endgame. But I don't see that happening, because we're liable to stab him in the back since we'd know who he was.

[MrBuddyLee]

lol I woke up too late to get a McMuffin but it's ok, this is better.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

*does a little dance*

Sorry, Glrok, I don't believe there are just two mafiates left. I expect a 17-player game to contain more scum than a mini. I consider the mafia to be the biggest threat and I think there's already plenty of incentive for crosskills(the town is not the biggest threat to at least the mafia right now, I'd say.

You are free to tell us who you think the SK is, that'll also help the mafia, but you're going down.

Confirm vote: Glrok

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork's plan sucks... he's probably the SK trying to stay alive one more day so he can reach a deal with scum to split a win or something.

[Thok]

Vote Count:

Glork/MOS (3) (klebian/SV, PJ/MBL, CES/MGM)

8 Alive means 5 to lynch

We are aware of the ongoing replcement issues.

[Zindaras]

I'd vote GlorkoS because I have no trouble believing he's scum, but I want to know who he thinks is SK.

[Glork]

Alright, here goes.

First, I want to examine the targets of the SK's kills:
Fritzler/Ibaesha N1
Coron/DGB N2 (Yes, StallingChamp had replaced Coron right at the end of the day, butI still feel that Coron's presence at the time was a factor in his death)
TSQ/Fritzler N3.

Fritz twice, and Coron/DGB the other night. That N1 killing was coupled with Ibby, too. These are all what I considered to be fairly strong pairs. I'd say that this indicates a reasonably experienced/knowledgable player who felt like taking out some of the midrange to well-known threats. I was actually pretty surprised about the Fritz/Ibby killing N1; I would have expected them to get Doc protection (though I can see how MoS/I or PJ/MBL might get it instead).

I can tell you now that PJ/MBL would not be likely to kill off Coron/DGB or Fritz/TSQ as an SK. If they weren't lobbying to get me lynched, I'd see them as slightly more likely to kill of MoS and myself.

The two most likely candidates I saw for the SK position at that point were TSS/Nightson and CES/MGM. TSS was Armlx, who I know is familiar with players such as Ibby, Fritzler, and Coron; and I know that Nightson is also aware that such players hold some level of respect/significance. But I'd have to point at CEM and MGM on the basis that they've been active enough to be sending in kills regularly, whereas I'm not even sure that TSS is still here or that Nightson has any idea what's going on.

In the meantime, CES has shown that he's been active in the game. He's wagoned frequently, failed to post any original suspicions/thoughts or comments on the game, and only expressed two real suspicions, I think. One was Post 465. The other? His recent "I actually think that Glrok is scum" post. Incidentally, this indicates that his previous behavior has not been to vote for people he actually think is scummy (more fuel for the fire, if you ask me). MGM, in the meantime, has been a bit more logical/contributive, but he still shows signs of following the crowd. At the start of D2, he jumps onto the Eon/Re2 bandwagon, actually citing one of Sprontalic's posts as his reasoning. A bit later, I step in to defend Eon/Re2, and he suddenly finds himself less convinced. Around the time of the crashes, MGM forgets who he was voting for, and mentions having taken notes. Interestingly enough, later on, he states that he was having a hard time re-reading the thread, and that he wanted a summary. It makes me wonder what kind of notes (if any) MGM had been taking. Unfortunately, he doesn't appear to be around to

CEM also seems quite unfond of the fact that I even want to go SK-hunting. I can honestly say that if there's a fourth mafia member, they exist as a Traitor. Obviously, I won't be believed until the game ends, but CES's response and confirm-vote indicate to me that he just wants the lynch and doesn't want to be potentially outed.


So I guess I'll

Vote: CES/MGM

. Definitely, *definitely* consider lynching them tomorrow if we don't lynch them today. I'd give them 80% odds on being the SK.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The "I actually think Glrok's scum" comment was meant to be contrasted with me wildly yelling "FREUDIAN SLIP!", not with previous votes. (I thought you had probably made a honest mistake, I just like yelling "FREUDIAN SLIP!". Honest.) My previous votes have mostly been bandwagon votes though, I don't deny that.

Do you really think I would kill Ibby? I'd totally kill DGB and Coron, but certainly not Ibby. I might kill Fritz, but not twice.

[petroleumjelly]

Hum. Just got back from classes... interesting development.

Unvote: Glork/MoS

. I have no qualms to extending this day: we already have one confirmed scum (whether he is bluffing SK or actual mafia is up in the air), so we might as well search for a second (or possibly third) scum while we're in day and have the time. We should not allow for the possibility of Glork/MoS to hammer themselves or another player until we decide to end the day.

However, I don't get to ask claimed scum questions very often, so I will definitely take this opportunity. I realize that Glork/MoS could lie like the Devil in responding to these, so I won't be giving the answers an incredible amount of weight, but I see no harm in asking, and potential benefits to be gained:

1.) Explain all of your nightkills
2.) Why did you originally push the agenda of 4 possible mafia, while now reverting to 3 mafia plus a "possible traitor"?
3.) Does your mafia have any collective quirks?

I might have more questions later if I can think of some, but these were the first things that came to mind.

[Glork]

1) Dice function. Obviously.
2) I'm, um... up to some trickery?

[Glork]

3) Yes. We're all super-saint death miller pro-town godfathers.

[petroleumjelly]

Bah. Figures.

[Glork]

Well, to be fair, PJ... for a few minutes, I thought about making up some ridiculously long-winded bullshit response in an attempt to confuse and mislead you. I also considered telling the truth as much as possible (without openly implicating anyone who might be a scumbuddy).


And then I decided that I just didn't care anymore. As soon as SV made her post, I knew the jig was up. I was going to try to weasel my way to a Miller claim or something (as CES accurately suggested), and after I slipped up with the crosskill comment, I realized that there was no way anyway that I wasn't going to be lynched. Unless I feel like making a more condensed argument against CES, I'll probably not be posting for the rest of the game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Let's run him up!

[Nightson]

or that Nightson has any idea what's going on.

Glork speaks truth.

As such, please read carefully to make sure I don't make an error.

With 8 people left that means half the people are probably scum.

ambic/RangeroftheNorth <-- dunno
The Silent Speaker/Nightson <--not scum
ChannelDelibird/Zindaras <-- dunno
Cogito Ergo Sum/Mgm <-- probably scum
Glork/Mastermind of Sin <-- scum obv
klebian/spectrumvoid <-- probably not scum
Mini Neo Lowell/sprontalic <-- dunno
MrBuddyLee/petroleumjelly <--probably not scum

If CES is the SK and we kill him it would leave 6 people with probably 3 scum. Town loses, SK loses.

If we kill Glork and th SK kills a good guy, it'll be 2 town, 2 mafia, and the SK.

If we kill Glork and the SK kills a bad guy, it'll be 3 town, 1 mafia, and the SK. (best scenario for town, but not one the SK wants, so this is presumeably not going to happen)

*explores alternate solutions*

Lynching the SK today = loss for town and SK.

Lynching Glork = likely 2 town, 2 mafia, 1 SK

Lynching someone else = most likely, 2 town, 2 mafia (one being known), 1 SK. In such a case we'd go to night with it being 2 town, 1 mafia, and 1 SK.

Basically it boils down to this as near as I can tell

If we lynch the SK, mafia wins. (With this in mind, the SK should claim if they're going to be lynched)

A mislynch today should be accounted for by the SK balancing (killing a mafia member to stop them from winning).

It's better to have a known scum alive tomorrow so as to prevent a town mislynch tomorrow (something both the townand the SK want to avoid)

Essentially, as far as I can tell, we cannot avoid the situation of going to night with 2 town, 1 mafia, and 1 SK as the best solution (the alternative being an almost guranteed mafia win)

Therefore I'mnot going to vote for either Glork or CES (since I think itis likely he's the SK) instead I'll pick someone else, I'd like to hear PJ/MBL and kleib/spectrum's thoughts on who among

ambic/RotN
Lowell/sprontalic
CDB/Zindaras
(include your thoughts on me if you want, but for this lynch I won't really care)

Also, if one of you points out I made an error somewhere that renders this whole post factually incorrect, know that I will kill you slowly and painfully.

[Nightson]

7.) Nightson/TSS, I have been getting the feeling that your most recent posts have had little substance whilst trying to appear to be substantive. Could you give me your top two suspects with a reasonable explanation for each, and who you think is most likely to be town?

Might as well touch on this too, I don't know what's happened in this game, I don't remember anything except that there was a lot of useless spamming in the beginning and hat I though you were pro-town. I seriously doubt I've actually contributed anything to this game up till my last post (which I'm proud of).

My listing of the peoples in the game should make where I stand clear (even if it's having no position).

[Nightson]

EDBWOP:
I'd like to hear PJ/MBL and kleib/spectrum's thoughts on who among

ambic/RotN
Lowell/sprontalic
CDB/Zindaras
(include your thoughts on me if you want, but for this lynch I won't really care)

are most likely to be scum.

[spectrumvoid]

vote: Pooky/adele

Scum.

Glork/Mos: scum.

[spectrumvoid]

I'll check in with my other head first, just want to discuss something.

[Glork]

vote: Pooky/adele

Scum.

Glork/Mos: scum.

Hi, are you reading the thread?

[ambic]

For better, for worse, these are my thoughts. I'm writing this as I go hoping a scum is hanging himself out to dry and hoping we don't notice. (Ignoring the one that already did)


1. Nightson/The Silent Speaker:

Nightson

: With the exception of today, Nightson hasnt posted any significant content at all. In four days he has made 3 votes of his own accord, and 1 FOS. It's not many, but I don't know what to make of that. It's suspicious to say the least. But I do note an apparent change of gear now the numbers are down, and I confess that is what I was waiting on.

The Silent Speaker

: He lives up to his name. 10 posts the whole game. I need to go back and determine when he replaced Armlx, because that will affect my opinion as to whether or not he is lurking.

Armlx

- Made a post about Re2 being most likely scum, but it was Day 1. Shinnanigans

2.Channel Delibird / Zindaras

Channel Delibird

: 11 posts all game. FOS'd me and Yosarian for blindly voting when the 3 votes he has made on his own accord seem much the same.

Zindaras

: Fished for claims in one post but easily explainable by circumstances. Said "I doubt that everything in the thread is useless, ambic, though I'll get to that when I reread it. Which I hope will be this week." but hasnt really backed that up [/hypocrite]

Ziliu

: 2 posts. Voted in one of them. No info can be easily gleaned here.

3. Cogito Ergo Sum / Mgm

Mgm

to me feels townie. I might be completely wrong, but I'll take that risk. I can assure you there is one game assumption he has gotten completely correct, but it's probably his modding experience telling him this and not inside information.

Cogito Ergo Sum

: FOSsed his own other head... Was this an accidental distancing manouevre from a fellow scum? I rescind my townieness assumption on Mgm. I just wonder if that was a Freudian slip or a genuine one. Its funny that his posts have a lot to do with another 'Freudian Slip' when he possibly made a doozy himself.
("I might kill Fritz, but not twice. " I certainly would kill Fritzler twice. I vowed that if I ever drew vig, I would vig him outright on account that his play is often very dangerous to to town. This is a style thing that he pushes because he likes being scum, and if it were too clear that he was enjoying himself in one game and not in another, then we would know when to lynch or not lynch)
CES's certainty vote on Pooky/Adele feels a bit like a fellow-scum vote too. In my mind I have a situation just like Courk wanted. What do you do when you feel one head is innocent and the other could well be scum... I don't really know why CES FOS'd Mgm.

4. Glork / Mastermind of Sinai
Claimed scum. Need I say more.

5.klebian/spectrumvoid
Heh - I got confused here. Klebian had a go at MOS and I was thinking MOS is the other head of Klebian... So hard to get it right...

Klebian

: 11 posts since replacing, but some with content backing me up about my MOS attack earlier. Not sure if that is a good thing or not, but will leave it for now.

SpectrumVoid

Voted me for wanting to bandwagon. I do this a lot, so Im fairly used to that reaction. Seems to be very sure that MOS/Glork is scum, but I don't know why. With 2 dead cops, there won't be any more (surely) so the info seems to either be non role related - or from another style (eg Watchman/tracker etc)


6.Lowell/Sprontalic

Lowell

: 6 posts to date, but a promise not to lurk. Lets see where that goes..

Sprontalic

: "Ambic 426: FOS you (Ambic) for even considering a no lynch. No lynch is always bad! " I am allowed to disagree, and believing something controversial does not make you scum. For the record you will always see me defend this as a tactic in all games. I have no read on Sprontalic though

7.MrBuddyLee/petroleumjelly

MrBuddyLee

: "You'd think someone as seemingly intelligent as him who wants to hold others to higher standards would himself be able to point to a few scum and why he believes they are so. " Youd think so, but I have found this game really hard going. It's amazing how much harder mafia is when you don't know your fellow players. So much meta-gaming... I do get a very slight feeling that MBL is tied to pooky, but its a vague gut feeling rather than anything I can pin.

PetroleumJelly

: Was waiting on my reread. I have now done this, and in my mind have picked out one very likely to be scum, and one certainty. The horrid or perhaps not so horrid thing is that the certainty is fingering the one the I think is likely - and that does bother me.

In answer to PJ:
>Amb, why did you never get back to us on your reread?
Honestly the size of the game daunted me, and the amount of "Whazzup" "ZzzZZZzzz" type contentless posts was putting me off immensely. I have now gritted my teeth and done a post analysis by reading all players posts together

>And how did you somehow forget that you were voting for Pooky/Adele before you tried to vote them again after they were already lynched?
I screwed up.

And bah - right as im finishing, I see Im missing some critical info about a claimed scum... Damnnabbit, who was it...

I find Glork's vote on CES very very interesting. It's almost like the claimed scum trying to distance a player. I don't know what to make of that.

Vote Glork

[ambic]

(Note the [/hypocrite] reference was self-referential. I am calling myself a hypocrite for picking another player up for the same 'crime' as me)

[Nightson]

Vote Glork

It's better to have a known scum alive tomorrow so as to prevent a town mislynch tomorrow (something both the town and the SK want to avoid)

In lightofmy post why do you believe voting Glork to be the optimal strategy?