Mini 378- R&GAS: GAME OVER

[Jack]

Interesting. Here's what I think.

If there are two mafia and 1 SK, we should lynch ThAdmiral and rely on
TCS to help us find the scum. Shouldn't be too hard

If there are three mafia and 1 SK this complicates things. If we lynch
ThAdmiral we lose, he is indeed correct on that point.

I'll

unvote

pending discussion.

However

, I'm not entirely sure he's the Serial Killer. He could be scum.
If there are 3 scum left and he's one of them then if we don't lynch him
and lynch a townie instead we probably lose. I don't think we could count
on the real SK counterclaiming.

So, there are two options I see. We can

a) Assume there are two scum based on the title, and lynch ThAdmiral. I favor
this option.

b) Lynch someone else. If ThAdmiral is SK and there are 3 scum I think
they are HackerHuck, Bogre, and mikeburnfire(rogue_two). We could lynch
one of them and have him kill one of the others. I think we can count on
getting 1 or 2 scum with this method. This will leave 4 alive. If we
get one mafia then the mafia win. If we get 2 mafia then we either have
3-1 or 2-1-1. Considering it more carefully, I don't think it changes
anything if he's scum instead of SK.

It comes down to how many scum we think are in the game. I think there are
two from the title of the game, and because ThAdmirals claim smells like
a desperate mafioso (1 of 2, convincing us to lynch a townie or the real SK
would be quite a bonus for them).

[mikeburnfire]

I acknowledge that it's possible that he's scum claiming SK, but that doesn't seem like something one would want to false claim. Besides, we HAVE had two kills each night. Unless a vig wants to take credit for those kills, I have no reason not to believe they were done by his hand. And if we do have a different SK, then theAdmiral would have to be pretty ballsy to take credit for his handiwork.

I'm going to assume that we have two scum because if there are three then we're pretty boned anyway. Presuming that we correctly hit mafia today, we might wake up to a 2-1-1 situation in which the SK and the mafia have each killed towners. If we kill him, then we're nearly guaranteed to begin tomorrow 3-2, so that's my preferred COA. I'll wait for other's input before voting, though.

[EmpTyger]

Votecount

2 ThAdmiral

(The Central Scrutinizer, Jules)

1 The Central Scrutinizer

(HackerHuck)

Not voting: Jack, mikeburnfire, ThAdmiral, Bogre

[HackerHuck]

Interesting claim.

Unvote: The Central Scrutiniser

Very odd move Scrutiniser, I actually did think you made a mistake when you claimed Maz was your first investigation. I guess I was wrong. From your investigation, is there anything to support or disprove ThAdmiral's claim?

ThAdmiral is in a very interesting position. If he's not the SK, I agree that there's no way the real SK would counter. However, that doesn't account for the possibility of a Vig performing the additional nightkills. Just in case we've got a vig that might claim, I think it would be best if ThAdmiral claims who

he

killed each night.

We're now at a point where we really have to gamble a bit. The one thing that holds true in either scenario is that we know there are scum other than ThAdmiral. We haven't been deadlined yet, so I think we're better off trying to hunt the other scum first. Once we're at deadline or we've got someone else at lynch-1 or -2, we can review this claim and take a look at how best to proceed.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

There is nothing in my investigation that could discern whether he is mafia or SK. I am Hamlet, an insane cop, but I knew that I was insane from the start. On Night 1 I got a guilty on Maz, and on Night 2 I got an innocent on ThAdmiral. Therefore, Maz was innocent and ThAdmiral is... well, you get the picture. All I know is that he's not pro-town.

Therefore, we *have* to lynch him. Assuming that he is mafia claiming SK, he will guide us to a town lynch today, and that's pretty much game over for the town, SK or mafia wins. Assuming that he is an SK, and we are stupid enough to agree to his plan, even if we can lynch mafia today, he can defect and NK town, leaving us at 1 SK, 1 Mafia, and 2 Town--> town loss. Obviously, the ideal scenario is we lynch mafia, he NK's mafia, and we lynch him Day 3 ftw, but I think that we would be naive to count on ThAdmiral to go along with the plan and sacrifice himself when he could as easily screw us over. This completely discounts any scenarios in which we fail to correctly lynch mafia.

I think our best plan is to lynch ThAdmiral, and hope that we can pull a doc protect out of our asses to get a guilty investigation.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I think the best we can hope for is LYLO. The cost of ThAdmiral defecting is too high. And if he took high school biology, he knows that defecting is always the answer.

[ThAdmiral]

first night: nightson
second night: maz medias

even if we can lynch mafia today, he can defect and NK town, leaving us at 1
SK, 1 Mafia, and 2 Town--> town loss.

Even if i did defect I would be the next lynch for sure, leading to a mafia win. Either way I lose and like I said I like the town better.

[EmpTyger]

Seeking a temporary replacement for HackerHuck. Expect a deadline as soon as I find one.

Votecount

2 ThAdmiral

(The Central Scrutinizer, Jules)

Not voting: HackerHuck, Jack, mikeburnfire, ThAdmiral, Bogre

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Ok, I'm pretty sure based on how the voting and discussion has gone this game that mikeburnfire is almost certainly mafia, and that Bogre is the next most likely candidate. If we lynch someone today, and it's not ThAdmiral, it should be Mike and ThAdmiral should NK Bogre. I will then investigate one of the other remaining players.

If not, we should lynch ThAdmiral and I will investigate one of those two tonight.

[mikeburnfire]

based on how the voting and discussion has gone this game that mikeburnfire is almost certainly mafia,

Oh? Do tell me how you arrived at such a conclusion. Are you basing your accusations on my predecesor's behavoir or on one of the two posts that I have made?

[Jack]

based on how the voting and discussion has gone this game that mikeburnfire is almost certainly mafia,

Oh? Do tell me how you arrived at such a conclusion. Are you basing your accusations on my predecesor's behavoir or on one of the two posts that I have made?

You avoided posting content last page even though you'd just replaced into the game and this page all you have is one post arguing in favor of lynching the SK, which actually makes you look like mafia since they want him out of the way. I think the three mafia theory has been disproven by the way ThAdmiral is still alive when TCS was already voting him and all they had to do was pile on for the win. I think we have two mafia out of HH, Bogre, and mikeburn. I would like the

MOD

to prod Jules though.

If we lynch ThAdmiral today we can be practically guaranteed to lynch scum tomorrow with TCS's investigation. The following day is less clear though.

If we go with TCS's plan and lynch mikeburn and have ThAdmiral kill Bogre we can have this thing wrapped up by tomorrow if they're the scum or if HH is guilty. This is a better plan. I think we need a little more discussion though. I've posted on mikeburn and previously mentioned reasons for Bogre and HH but I'll write those up in more detail.

[mikeburnfire]

all you have is one post arguing in favor of lynching the SK, which actually makes you look like mafia since they want him out of the way.

... and a townie shouldn't? Honestly, I'm in favor of lynching a person who has admitted to not being on the town's side.

If we go with TCS's plan and lynch mikeburn and have ThAdmiral kill Bogre we can have this thing wrapped up by tomorrow if they're the scum or if HH is guilty. This is a better plan.

...the hell? You would lynch me, an innocent, and trust the serial killer, whose interests are not pro-town? This is a better plan than lynching the serial killer? Are you high?

I know that I missed some things on my read of the game, but please remind me why are you and Jules cannot be scum.

[Jack]

Ok here's something I've been thinking about. In the play, Rosencrants and Guildenstern play a game called the questions game. I believe they are the only one's who play it. From the thread title R&G are scum. Originally I thought Bogre's claim of having a posting restriction was a way to get out of conversation, but it's occurred to me that he could be scum with a posting restriction, following the theme. Either way it's scummy.

When I first read the thread rich_25 stood out as really scummy. He didn't get lynched because people thought he was the jester, but HH hasn't acted like a jester. HH sounds less scummy but I think he's just better at being scum. Today HH said it was lynch or lose to get the cop to come forward and then tried to lynch him. Very scummy.

[Jack]

all you have is one post arguing in favor of lynching the SK, which actually makes you look like mafia since they want him out of the way.

... and a townie shouldn't? Honestly, I'm in favor of lynching a person who has admitted to not being on the town's side.

A townie shouldn't if lynching the SK means game over. You didn't even discount that possibility, you just said it 'would be too hard if there were three scum so you'd prefer to believe there weren't'.

If we go with TCS's plan and lynch mikeburn and have ThAdmiral kill Bogre we can have this thing wrapped up by tomorrow if they're the scum or if HH is guilty. This is a better plan.

...the hell? You would lynch me, an innocent, and trust the serial killer, whose interests are not pro-town? This is a better plan than lynching the serial killer? Are you high?

Going by numbers I think lynching ThAdmiral is the better plan. It's certainly safer. But if we're are a bit confident in our suspicions then TCS's plan is better.

btw, the SK doesn't have pro town interests per-se, but he does want to kill mafia.

I know that I missed some things on my read of the game, but please remind me why are you and Jules cannot be scum.

I'm just thinking out loud man. I know I'm innocent and I've accounted for the possibility of Jules being scum in my scenario.

[mikeburnfire]

You didn't even discount that possibility, you just said it 'would be too hard if there were three scum so you'd prefer to believe there weren't'.

I'll concede that. I'm crossing my fingers that we only have two. If we have three then it's game over.

But if we're are a bit confident in our suspicions then TCS's plan is better.

First of all, the roughly outlined plan to lynch me was only one of options that TCS listed, so stop trying to shift all the responsibility onto him by calling it 'his plan'.

Secondly, how confident can you even be? The only thing that I've been accused of is trying to lynch the SK, which I admit that I was.

I've accounted for the possibility of Jules being scum in my scenario.

It seems to me that you've been avoiding talking about Jules. In fact, whilst rattling off the plans for killing me and investigations and whatnot, you've not even mentioned Jules, aside from a prod request.

[Jack]

But if we're are a bit confident in our suspicions then TCS's plan is better.

First of all, the roughly outlined plan to lynch me was only one of options that TCS listed, so stop trying to shift all the responsibility onto him by calling it 'his plan'.

Secondly, how confident can you even be? The only thing that I've been accused of is trying to lynch the SK, which I admit that I was.

Well here's my point of view: Lynch ThAdmiral. We know ThAdmiral is scum and we know TCS is innocent. I think we can assume there are two mafia. That leaves 4 with 2 scum. The mafia will probably kill one and TCS will probably get a result. This leaves us knowing one of both of the scum tomorrow if all goes well. However it's quite likely we end up with only a 50/50 shot the last day if the mafia kill TCS.

With TCS's plan (just shorthand man, I'll call it Jack's plan if you want though I haven't made up my mind who would be the best choice for lynch and NK), I think we can get better odds. Mathematically it's inferior as I said, we only have 2/5 chance of lynching scum and 2/4 of NK'ing scum. But personally I think there is a much better than 2/5 chance that Bogre is scum. If we can lynch and NK correctly we win today. If we miss both we lose, granted, but I really doubt we'll miss both.

I've accounted for the possibility of Jules being scum in my scenario.

It seems to me that you've been avoiding talking about Jules. In fact, whilst rattling off the plans for killing me and investigations and whatnot, you've not even mentioned Jules, aside from a prod request.[/quote]

He hasn't given me anything to talk about. No posts today. I said in my first go through that I hadn't a clear opinion on him either way.

[Jack]

Do you oppose the plan because TCS said lynch you? I would go for lynching Bogre and having ThAdmiral take out HH personally. You come off townie in the last few posts here. I'm going to wait for the prod on Jules before voting though.

[mikeburnfire]

Do you oppose the plan because TCS said lynch you? I would go for lynching Bogre and having ThAdmiral take out HH personally. You come off townie in the last few posts here. I'm going to wait for the prod on Jules before voting though.

I'm against any plan that involves lynching somebody that I know to be innocent. Still, I'd be hard pressed to justify trusting a serial killer.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

After rereading a couple times, I think that Jules and Bogre are the most likely scum. They are the ones most likely to play the question game.

I think it may be unwise to lynch HH on the off-chance that he's a Jester.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

By the way, sorry for FOSing you mike... after reading and thinking I believe I was mistaken.

[EmpTyger]

Inactive players have been prodded.

Votecount

2 ThAdmiral

(The Central Scrutinizer, Jules)

Not voting: HackerHuck, Jack, mikeburnfire, ThAdmiral, Bogre

[The Central Scrutinizer]

unvote

[ThAdmiral]

After rereading a couple times, I think that Jules and Bogre are the most likely scum. They are the ones most likely to play the question game.

I think it may be unwise to lynch HH on the off-chance that he's a Jester.

Yeah, I haven't much liked bogre from the start so I'm all for his lynch.

vote:bogre

[mikeburnfire]

VOTE: ThAdmiral

I think you all know why by now.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

So, what's the consensus? I want to hear from everyone before we pile on.

I'm leaning towards lynching ThAdmiral and taking our chances. The price if he's Mafia falseclaiming SK is too high.