Mini 392: Jungle Republic - Game over!

[sprontalic]

But it looks like the kind of mutual agreement that's a pile-on influenced by scum- maybe a townie or two had it against germy going into the day, but there had to be at least one scum in that first run of votes, most likely more. (Well, if you're a townie other than Y2, TSQ, spront, or Zind, you know at least two of them are)

Well I don't doubt that one or two would've piled on as an attempt to bandwagon, but if that's the case it's most likely Zind since he's the last to pile on. I can't imagine the first two being a bandwagoning attempt and I've basically said from day 1 that I was suspicious of germy which was only confirmed by lyingbrian being scum.

[Zindaras]

I'll concede "repeated"; error in my notes from the long read. Still, pressuring people to vote is a bad thing in a situation where every vote can matter a whole lot. The obvious case is the classic lynch or lose, where we are now, but since the town hasn't had a majority since the start of Day 2, there's no reason not to be cautious. And once a scum group's half of the votes required to lynch (As the Islamists have been since Day 2), misplaced townie votes give the scum more power.

Meh, this is just where you and I disagree. I think it's better when people vote. After all, that's the point of the game. Of course, there are situations where it's better not to (you'll note, for example, that I'm not clamouring for votes in the situation we find ourselves in now), but in the situation we were in at that time, voting was an inherently good thing.

Well I don't doubt that one or two would've piled on as an attempt to bandwagon, but if that's the case it's most likely Zind since he's the last to pile on. I can't imagine the first two being a bandwagoning attempt and I've basically said from day 1 that I was suspicious of germy which was only confirmed by lyingbrian being scum.

Now now now.

If there was any bandwagoning going on, it was you doing it. I explained my vote thoroughly, even to germy's satisfaction, while the point you made when you voted was quickly rebuttaled, after which you came with the lame, unarguable "I thought you were LyingBrian's scumpal all along."

FoS: sprontalic

I most definitely did not bandwagon, and I find your statement that I did quite scummy.

[sprontalic]

You know I was hoping for a nice long exchange between you and germy...but your sudden backing down makes me believe that your vote on him before was really just an attempt at distancing.

FOS: Germy + LyingBrian

Also I find germy's vote very bandwagonistic (ie no logic of his own, just voting because theres a bandwagon happening). Kinda supports the theory that he and Lyingbrian are in the same scum group and they their prior argument is for distancing purposes.

FOS: germy

And I'm going to

FOS: germy, Cadre, Lyingbrian

germy for blatently bandwagon for no reasons. Begin by firing a few "I don't like the way SL is playing" then gets defensive when questioned by Lyingbrian then pops in the big 1 minus lynch vote when the bandwagon has gained enough momentum...during which he never used his own reasoning when casting his vote.

For now I'm happy with Kingpin, Lyingbrian or Germy.

@Post 237: Funny that Lyingbrian has been scummy as hell, and yet he's not on your list for anything. A germy/lyingbrian scum pair is looking more and more likely.

germy has been so strongly connected to lyingbrian that if lyingbrian were scum, germy would have to be his teammate, if not a scum that's trying to buddy up. I'm quite convinced that lyingbrian is scum too but with this alternative, we may not have to risk killing the seer on the off chance that lyingbrian isn't actually lying.

As such:

unvote
vote: Germy

And that bring us up to day 3 when I placed the third vote on germy. Note that a significant amount of my posts have been against germy. I think I had every right to vote without reasoning during that one time.

I seriously smell a huge OMGUS and overdefensiveness from that post though. Hence maybe I'm right about you bandwagoning.

[Thestatusquo]

Zindie, I believe you just got pwned. *huggles*

[Zindaras]

I smell a hypocrite.

Okay, I reread the game, and a couple of things caught my eye:

-TSQ. He defended SL throughout most of the day, then suddenly, out of the blue, hammered him.
-germy. He added little content throughout the day and put SL on Lynch-1.
-Friday-13th. She was the first to vote SL and never added a lot afterward.
-Lucresia. Was very insistent on lynching SL.

I'm not entirely sure I like the way LyingBrian has been playing either. I'll go ahead and

FoS: germy, Lucresia Friday-13th

and

Vote: TSQ

until he comes up with a good explanation for hammering ShadowLurker.

germy and LyingBrian, I want from you nice little lists with opinions on every player in the game.

You're saying that you're clean from bandwagoning because you posted suspicions before, but you completely fail to read my earlier posts (I argued quite a bit with germy Day 2). I've been on germy's behind for a long time (in fact, the first quote here was my first content in the thread). That's why I FoSed you.

[sprontalic]

I'm not hypocritical, I'm simply rebutting your arguement. I never claimed that you didn't give a reasoning, I just said that you would be the most likely becuase you were the last to jump on.

Besides you're FoSing me because I'm saying

if

anyone was bandwagoning it's most likely you.

If

is the crucial word there because I was against looking specficially at the bandwagon against germy as the means to finding the islamists since I don't believe it would mean anything. Thank you though since you've basically proven my point about why it's redundant to say that those on the bandwagon are necessarily scum.

Still your reaction to my vague accusation (which I didn't even really agree with, but was merely expanding discussion) is very interesting and makes me believe that you may be scummier than you've make yourself look before.

FoS: Zindaras

[Zindaras]

I'm not hypocritical, I'm simply rebutting your arguement.

In this, rebutting your

own

argument.

Ergo, hypocritical because you're attacking me while I have an obviously similar defense to yours, which you would've seen if you'd have bothered to read the thread...

Or you just wanted to ignore it.

I never claimed that you didn't give a reasoning, I just said that you would be the most likely becuase you were the last to jump on.

So, then, how are you cleared of bandwagoning? Because you weren't the last one to jump on but the next-to-last? Oh, my, now that's irrefutable proof that you didn't bandwagon.

You say I'm most likely the bandwagoner because I was the last one to jump on, and you're clearing yourself because you have a defense against not bandwagoning. That's hypocritical.

Besides you're FoSing me because I'm saying

if

anyone was bandwagoning it's most likely you.

If

is the crucial word there because I was against looking specficially at the bandwagon against germy as the means to finding the islamists since I don't believe it would mean anything. Thank you though since you've basically proven my point about why it's redundant to say that those on the bandwagon are necessarily scum.

Well I don't doubt that one or two would've piled on as an attempt to bandwagon, but if that's the case it's most likely Zind since he's the last to pile on. I can't imagine the first two being a bandwagoning attempt and I've basically said from day 1 that I was suspicious of germy which was only confirmed by lyingbrian being scum.

Read it again.

No doubt

. You are definitely saying someone bandwagoned here, and you are definitely pointing the finger at me, specifically.

Still your reaction to my vague accusation (which I didn't even really agree with, but was merely expanding discussion)

Ooooh, so now you didn't even agree with it, now that I've rebutted it.

is very interesting and makes me believe that you may be scummier than you've make yourself look before.

So I've rebutted one of your arguments, so you pull something else from thin air.

I can definitely see a sprontalic/Norinel/X Islamist group right now.

[sprontalic]

In this, rebutting your

own

argument.
Ergo, hypocritical because you're attacking me while I have an obviously similar defense to yours, which you would've seen if you'd have bothered to read the thread...
Or you just wanted to ignore it.

No I didn't rebut my own argument, I rebutted yours. This is what you said (with key phrases bolded)

I

explained my vote

thoroughly, even to germy's satisfaction, while

the point you made

when you voted was quickly rebuttaled, after which you came with the lame, unarguable "I thought you were LyingBrian's scumpal all along."

Hence your argument is that I didn't provide reasoning, which I disproved. Now what I posted before was (again bolding key phrase)

Well I don't doubt that one or two would've piled on as an attempt to bandwagon, but if that's the case it's most likely Zind

since he's the last to pile on

.

Hence my argument is that you were the last to vote, hence most probable to bandwagoning.

And bandwagon isn't a keyword since it's used in the sense of joining the wagon, not joining without a reason (everyone on that bandwagon had a reason, and I'm pretty sure I acknowledged that on the last page).

So, then, how are you cleared of bandwagoning? Because you weren't the last one to jump on but the next-to-last? Oh, my, now that's irrefutable proof that you didn't bandwagon.
You say I'm most likely the bandwagoner because I was the last one to jump on, and you're clearing yourself because you have a defense against not bandwagoning. That's hypocritical.

I never said I didn't bandwagon. I agree that to a neutral observer I'd be as guilty as you. Thing is I've read the little role PM from Kelly Chen which means I know what role I have. Unless I'm trying to make myself lose why would I name myself?

Read it again.

No doubt

. You are definitely saying someone bandwagoned here, and you are definitely pointing the finger at me, specifically.

ok

Well I don't doubt that one or two would've piled on as an attempt to bandwagon,

but if that's the case

it's most likely Zind since he's the last to pile on. I can't imagine the first two being a bandwagoning attempt and I've basically said from day 1 that I was suspicious of germy which was only confirmed by lyingbrian being scum.

Read the bolded part. That means that it might not be, ie not definitive. If you'd read my day 4 posts, you'd now that I hadn't even considered it a possibility.

Ooooh, so now you didn't even agree with it, now that I've rebutted it.

Heres some proof that I never agreed with it from the beginning.

Also I don't think TSQ ever led the charge towards germy's lynch. In fact no one did, it was mutually agreed upon.

ie everyone had their own legitimate reason to vote germy and there was no bandwagoning attempt.

Actually after a short reread, I'm thinking maybe Yosarian isn't scum. Since he placed the first vote on germy. I'm not exactly sure the first vote of an islamist quick lynch attempt would come from an islamist because they need two extra votes to finish the wagon. The only reason the wagon against germy finished so soon was coz he voted for himself, no one would've anticipated that.

On the other hand, I'm getting scummy vibes from Kingpin because he promised a reread yet never delivered a comment about it. This I find summy because surely it's not hard to reread on a single player, especially the one that is on 4 votes already. I feel that's an attempt at staying well away from the wagon in order to raise the "TSQ + three others on germy's wagon = scum" argument.

Note how I was looking at those that

wasn't

on the wagon (except TSQ, which I had basically taken for granted as scum by then).

So I've rebutted one of your arguments, so you pull something else from thin air.

You didn't rebuttal anything, you merely diverted the argument into a different direction, to the fact that I had no reason to vote for germy, to the fact that I was being hypocritical. That's not rebutting, that's bringing up an entirely different argument.

Ok, let me point out my points against you now.
1) You over defended when I was merely making the point that if someone had been bandwagoning germy (which I never agreed with, it was simply to explore Norinel's idea) it would most likely have been you. I didn't FOS you, I merely named you. Notice how the only reason against you was that you were the last the vote, which is why and only why I named you. All of a sudden you pull out the overdefensive "I had a reason for that vote, but you didn't therefore you're scummier than me in that regard". I'll admit though that my post was rather misleading with the "don't doubt" bit.
2) You turn my rebuttal back on me with a red herring. I was never being hypocritical by showing how I'd always been against germy then ignoring the fact that you had too. The burden of proof is not whether you had any ongoing reason against germy, it was simply that you were the last on the wagon. Now this was made very clearly in my post, yet you somehow managed to bend the argument this way. It seems to me like an attempt at retaliating against me by trying to implicate me as scum.
3) You turned someone small and insignificant to something unnecessarily large. Point is I made a passing comment that was used to raise discussion and explore ideas. Basically I was saying "I don't agree with this idea, but if I had to look into this idea, I would think this". Somehow you misread it as "I agree with this idea, hence I strongly agree with this", which is clearly an over-reation and overdefensiveness at work.

Just for the record, I never said you bandwagoned. I just said if someone did bandwagon, it's most probably you.

[sprontalic]

Also, will be away tomorrow and the day after. Going to a friends place to watch NYE fireworks

[Zindaras]

No I didn't rebut my own argument, I rebutted yours. This is what you said (with key phrases bolded)

The argument you used against me could, and should, be used against you, too.

Hence my argument is that you were the last to vote, hence most probable to bandwagoning.

Since when is the fourth vote the most probable bandwagoning vote? I personally use 2-5.

And bandwagon isn't a keyword since it's used in the sense of joining the wagon, not joining without a reason (everyone on that bandwagon had a reason, and I'm pretty sure I acknowledged that on the last page).

Oh great, now I'm scum because I didn't get the opportunity to vote germy before that post. It was, after all, my first post since the restart.

I never said I didn't bandwagon. I agree that to a neutral observer I'd be as guilty as you. Thing is I've read the little role PM from Kelly Chen which means I know what role I have. Unless I'm trying to make myself lose why would I name myself?

So you, who did something, are town, according to yourself, and you're attacking me for exactly the same thing.

Yup. Definitely a hypocrite.

1) You over defended when I was merely making the point that if someone had been bandwagoning germy (which I never agreed with, it was simply to explore Norinel's idea) it would most likely have been you. I didn't FOS you, I merely named you. Notice how the only reason against you was that you were the last the vote, which is why and only why I named you. All of a sudden you pull out the overdefensive "I had a reason for that vote, but you didn't therefore you're scummier than me in that regard". I'll admit though that my post was rather misleading with the "don't doubt" bit.

Cry me a river. I get aggressive a lot. That's what I'm known for. And moreso as town than as scum. Town can afford to be aggressive. Scum not. And if you don't agree with something, then you should make that clear right from the start. Posting arguments you don't agree with yourself is a scummy action.

2) You turn my rebuttal back on me with a red herring. I was never being hypocritical by showing how I'd always been against germy then ignoring the fact that you had too. The burden of proof is not whether you had any ongoing reason against germy, it was simply that you were the last on the wagon. Now this was made very clearly in my post, yet you somehow managed to bend the argument this way. It seems to me like an attempt at retaliating against me by trying to implicate me as scum.

You say you're not bandwagoning because you had already said you thought he was scum before. Yet, you say I was the most likely bandwagoneer, even though I did the same. Ergo, hypocrite.

3) You turned someone small and insignificant to something unnecessarily large. Point is I made a passing comment that was used to raise discussion and explore ideas. Basically I was saying "I don't agree with this idea, but if I had to look into this idea, I would think this". Somehow you misread it as "I agree with this idea, hence I strongly agree with this",

That's not what it looked like from here.

which is clearly an over-reation and overdefensiveness at work.

And that is scummy how?

Have fun with the fireworks, by the way,

[Yosarian2]

If Germy was the most obveous choise for the last communist, (and we all seem to be agreed that he was), then the bandwagon on him probably dosn't give much information; all townies would want the last communist lynched, the Islamists wouldn't mind him being lynched either, and neither group has any information the other doesn't about the idenity of the last communist. Now, if someone was using crap logic to get someone lynched, that would increase their odds of being some kind of scum, but I don't see that anyone really did, as far as I can tell.

[Zindaras]

Opinion on sprontalic-me debate? You seem to be neutral on the matter, but I want it black on white.

[Norinel]

If Germy was the most obveous choise for the last communist, (and we all seem to be agreed that he was)

Part of my point that started the whole spront-Zin thing was that we weren't all agreed germy was. Four people voted for him in their first post, but that's not everyone, and not a majority. (Coincidentally, it's exactly how many scum there are left, but I think there might've been one or two misled town among the germy-voters) I know I wasn't sold on germy, and I don't see anything that says KP and Lucresia (The other two not voting him) were approaching sold either. I'm growing more and more convinced that the Islamists are trying to get away with the germy lynch by pushing the "Of course he was an idiot" thing.

[Yosarian2]

If Germy was the most obveous choise for the last communist, (and we all seem to be agreed that he was)

Part of my point that started the whole spront-Zin thing was that we weren't all agreed germy was. Four people voted for him in their first post, but that's not everyone, and not a majority. (Coincidentally, it's exactly how many scum there are left, but I think there might've been one or two misled town among the germy-voters) I know I wasn't sold on germy, and I don't see anything that says KP and Lucresia (The other two not voting him) were approaching sold either. I'm growing more and more convinced that the Islamists are trying to get away with the germy lynch by pushing the "Of course he was an idiot" thing.

Well, you might not have been "sold" on him, but you didn't say anything against the bandwagon either before the day ended yesterday.

Now, granted, it would have been much more informative if everyone else had commented on the bandwagon before it went to a lynch, and I'm quite annoyed at germy hammering himself before that happened. However, there was no really disagreeing, except Kingpen who was arguing that he thought TSQ was the last communist instead. Lucreatia agreed with some of the arguments against germy but was undecided when the day ended, and you never said anything about it at all.

So, I guess the question is, would an islamist be more likely to push a bandwagon like that, or more likely to sit on the sidelines and fly under the radar, remembering that the islamist didn't know if germy was the last communist or not and remembering that either way the lynch would not cause an immideate win for them? I don't think that's an easy question to answer, it depends on the psycology and philosaphy of the people involved, and odds are there are probably some islamists on the wagon and some not on the wagon. So I don't think looking at who was on the wagon and who wasn't is likely to tell us who the islamists are.

[Zindaras]

Well, you might not have been "sold" on him, but you didn't say anything against the bandwagon either before the day ended yesterday.

Exactly. I'm not liking Norinel right now. Not one of his posts since he's arrived in the game has had me thinking town.

I suggest we all FoS who we would like to vote right now, because voting would be silly, but we do need to get somewhere. I'd like to

FoS: Norinel

.

For the rest, I'm not really sold on anyone's alignment. I think TSQ's town and sprontalic is probably not a Communist.

[Norinel]

So, I guess the question is, would an islamist be more likely to push a bandwagon like that, or more likely to sit on the sidelines and fly under the radar, remembering that the islamist didn't know if germy was the last communist or not and remembering that either way the lynch would not cause an immideate win for them? I don't think that's an easy question to answer, it depends on the psycology and philosaphy of the people involved, and odds are there are probably some islamists on the wagon and some not on the wagon. So I don't think looking at who was on the wagon and who wasn't is likely to tell us who the islamists are.

Just by the numbers, I know there's at least one Islamist and two scum on the germy bandwagon. (Since there are only three townies and the Communist, and I know I'm a townie) If there were two or three Islamists, which I'd be inclined to think was the case, lynching randomly from the germy bandwagon is better than lynching randomly from the entire town. And since the Islamists were just two lynches away from winning, if they could force the lynch on germy easily and write it off the next day by treating it like it was an obvious choice.

Well, you might not have been "sold" on him, but you didn't say anything against the bandwagon either before the day ended yesterday.

Exactly. I'm not liking Norinel right now. Not one of his posts since he's arrived in the game has had me thinking town.

What about them, other than 360? As for yesterday, germy had self-voted before I had time to read everything. I wasn't going to cast or advocate for a lynching vote without the context.

I suggest we all FoS who we would like to vote right now, because voting would be silly, but we do need to get somewhere.

That'll also conveniently let the Islamists know which non-Islamists suspect others and which they need to push for the bandwagon. But since you asked,

FOS: Zindaras

, probably two of Lucresia, spront, and Y2 as the other two Islamists, and I can sort of see where KingPin's coming from about TSQ as the last Commie.

[Yosarian2]

Just by the numbers, I know there's at least one Islamist and two scum on the germy bandwagon. (Since there are only three townies and the Communist, and I know I'm a townie) If there were two or three Islamists, which I'd be inclined to think was the case, lynching randomly from the germy bandwagon is better than lynching randomly from the entire town. And since the Islamists were just two lynches away from winning, if they could force the lynch on germy easily and write it off the next day by treating it like it was an obvious choice.

I would think the primary goal of any islamist yesterday would be to not be noticed. If the last communist was lynched yesterday, the town would then have another chance to lynch an islamist. If the last communist was not lynched, then either the last communist would have to try and kill an islamist in order to not lose, or the last communist would have not kill, in which case the town'd have another chance. If it looked like germy was going to be lynched yesterday no matter what, and with no one but Kingpin really disagreeing with it I think it did, then I would expect at least some of the islamists to stay off the bandwagon. Odds are good that there is probably at least one Islamist on the bandwagon, and there might be two on there, but unless they're complete newbs I doubt that any scum group would pile onto a bandwagon as #2, #3, and #4 unless it'd win them the game on the spot, so I don't think there are three on there. So, from my point of view, there are between zero and two islamists on the bandwagon, with the most likely number of islamists on the wagon being 1, and so I don't think "lynching randomally from the wagon" is a good stratagy.

In fact, what I would expect an islamist to do would be to sit back and let the town lynch germy without commenting on the bandwagon, and then try to get the town to randomally lynch one of the people on the wagon, which is what you are doing right now.

[Zindaras]

Yos, I direct you to this post:

I suggest we all FoS who we would like to vote right now, because voting would be silly, but we do need to get somewhere. I'd like to

FoS: Norinel

.

Answer plzkthxbai.

[Zindaras]

Let me go over it again:

The main thing that caught me on the read was Zindaras. He was the second to vote for LyingBrian after Nai's second or third comment his direction, which'd be a good Islamist play if he caught the seer vibes from Nai as an easy anti-Communist direction to lead the town. (And it's easiest for the Islamists to spot the seer and Communists since they can already rule two more people out than any townie can)

This is ridiculous. What you're basically implying is that I decided, Page 7/8 (where my argument with LyingBrian started), that Nai was the President and, thus, start the argument with LyingBrian which eventually led to my vote Page 9.

If you wanted to say anything using this, it would be far more likely that I was a Communist, because I'd know LyingBrian's alignment in that case. Instead, you decide I'm Islamist.

Also I don't think TSQ ever led the charge towards germy's lynch. In fact no one did, it was mutually agreed upon.

But it looks like the kind of mutual agreement that's a pile-on influenced by scum- maybe a townie or two had it against germy going into the day, but there had to be at least one scum in that first run of votes, most likely more. (Well, if you're a townie other than Y2, TSQ, spront, or Zind, you know at least two of them are)

Focus on people on the bandwagon, ergo, people who weren't him. Scum includes Communist. What you're doing here is a broad statement, saying "1-3 of those people are scum" (which is, by the way, almost impossible not to be true, whatever random group of 4 people in this game you pick). No specifics, so you can go for whoever seems best later.

For example:

At least 1 of Norinel, Zindaras, Thestatusquo and KingPin is scum.

Look at my scumcatching powars!

I'll concede "repeated"; error in my notes from the long read. Still, pressuring people to vote is a bad thing in a situation where every vote can matter a whole lot. The obvious case is the classic lynch or lose, where we are now, but since the town hasn't had a majority since the start of Day 2, there's no reason not to be cautious. And once a scum group's half of the votes required to lynch (As the Islamists have been since Day 2), misplaced townie votes give the scum more power.

Paranoia regarding voting, thinks I'm scummy for putting pressure on lurkers (his predecessor, friday, was among those who I pressured to vote/contribute Day 2). Focuses on the downside of voting, wants to remain cautious. As I said when he made this post, this is

exactly

what the Islamists want to do (not have to vote and let the Commies and Townies kill each other of) and

exactly

why I have been pressuring people to post and have been forcing debates.

You're trying to force caution upon the town. You're not even trying to get people to post, no, caution is far more important. Let's all not vote anymore so we can't misplace our votes!

There's a sort of repetition of the obvious here, but I'm not sure what it means. Of course if we lynch Islamist today, we're not lynching Communist, and since we need to lynch Islamist today to win if we lynch at all, we can't lynch the last Communist.

There is no point to this post. It leaves all the interpretation up to the rest of the town and allows Norinel to keep a flexible opinion on KingPin, depending on what the rest of the town thinks of it.

Part of my point that started the whole spront-Zin thing was that we weren't all agreed germy was. Four people voted for him in their first post, but that's not everyone, and not a majority. (Coincidentally, it's exactly how many scum there are left, but I think there might've been one or two misled town among the germy-voters) I know I wasn't sold on germy, and I don't see anything that says KP and Lucresia (The other two not voting him) were approaching sold either. I'm growing more and more convinced that the Islamists are trying to get away with the germy lynch by pushing the "Of course he was an idiot" thing.

Again, focus on a broad group, focus on people that aren't him. If you weren't sold on germy, you should've said so in your first post. Instead, you merely stated his claim was redundant. You never said germy shouldn't be hammered, which would have been the logical thing to say there, looking at what you're saying here. Instead, you said nothing which could be interpreted as either for or against germy, again leaving room for change later.

Just by the numbers, I know there's at least one Islamist and two scum on the germy bandwagon. (Since there are only three townies and the Communist, and I know I'm a townie)

Redundant, as it requires the assumption that Norinel is town. Again, this is like picking a random group of 4 other people and saying one of them is Islamist.

If there were two or three Islamists, which I'd be inclined to think was the case, lynching randomly from the germy bandwagon is better than lynching randomly from the entire town.

Again, requires the assumption that there was more than one Islamist on the bandwagon, which

we do not know

. Again, focus on a broad group. Again, it's slyly leading us away from him.

And since the Islamists were just two lynches away from winning, if they could force the lynch on germy easily and write it off the next day by treating it like it was an obvious choice.

Or they could, y'know, just sit back and watch the show.

What about them, other than 360? As for yesterday, germy had self-voted before I had time to read everything. I wasn't going to cast or advocate for a lynching vote without the context.

You responded to something on the same page. You did not advocate

against

a hammer either. That is quite important. You said absolutely nothing yesterday, and now you're acting like you knew germy was town.

That'll also conveniently let the Islamists know which non-Islamists suspect others and which they need to push for the bandwagon.

So we shouldn't do anything, we should just sit here and wait for a deadline or something?

[Norinel]

Okay, so I think I see two misconceptions here that you're either falling to or trying your best to exploit:

1. I don't advocate lynching randomly from the bandwagoners. I don't even

directly

advocate lynching from the bandwagoners today. What I've been trying to say that you've been twisting around is that we shouldn't give everyone on the germy bandwagon a free pass for doing so.

2. The numbers in this game at the moment are weird, partially because of the town nonmajority since Day 2 (Which I'm surprised people don't anticipate more, given how often it happens in the classic 3 mafia + SK mini) and minority now. I throw around numbers to try to give an idea of the

absolute minimum

number of scum in certain groups, given certain perspectives, and try to reason that if a group did something suspicious, then there might be more scum than the absolute minimum.

So on to specifics:

I would think the primary goal of any islamist yesterday would be to not be noticed.

It's endgame. You can't not get noticed.

Odds are good that there is probably at least one Islamist on the bandwagon, and there might be two on there, but unless they're complete newbs I doubt that any scum group would pile onto a bandwagon as #2, #3, and #4 unless it'd win them the game on the spot, so I don't think there are three on there.

This is, of course, WIFOM. Not to mention that from the perspective of any townie off the germy bandwagon, there is an absolute certainty of one Islamist on the bandwagon, by the numbers.

In fact, what I would expect an islamist to do would be to sit back and let the town lynch germy without commenting on the bandwagon, and then try to get the town to randomally lynch one of the people on the wagon, which is what you are doing right now.

See point 1. Also, while I obviously can't prove this, I hadn't finished my reread before germy lynched himself, and the entirety of the germy bandwagon was based on history,

which I hadn't read yet.

This is ridiculous. What you're basically implying is that I decided, Page 7/8 (where my argument with LyingBrian started), that Nai was the President and, thus, start the argument with LyingBrian which eventually led to my vote Page 9.

If you wanted to say anything using this, it would be far more likely that I was a Communist, because I'd know LyingBrian's alignment in that case. Instead, you decide I'm Islamist.

It was a possibility, especially given that, in retrospect Nai's post 155 has the kind of certainty that people can get cop-with-guilty-result from and the Islamists have the biggest advantage in picking up tells because they can rule out possibilities and gain something from supporting any certain-looking vote that doesn't involve them. And the way things turned out is a pretty good deal for the Islamists, since they got a free lynch and nightkill that couldn't've hit any of them.

Also I don't think TSQ ever led the charge towards germy's lynch. In fact no one did, it was mutually agreed upon.

But it looks like the kind of mutual agreement that's a pile-on influenced by scum- maybe a townie or two had it against germy going into the day, but there had to be at least one scum in that first run of votes, most likely more. (Well, if you're a townie other than Y2, TSQ, spront, or Zind, you know at least two of them are)

Focus on people on the bandwagon, ergo, people who weren't him. Scum includes Communist. What you're doing here is a broad statement, saying "1-3 of those people are scum" (which is, by the way, almost impossible not to be true, whatever random group of 4 people in this game you pick). No specifics, so you can go for whoever seems best later.

See 2. Also, "most likely more". Also, "go[ing] for whoever seems best later" can also mean trying to figure out which ones are most likely to be scum.

Paranoia regarding voting, thinks I'm scummy for putting pressure on lurkers (his predecessor, friday, was among those who I pressured to vote/contribute Day 2). Focuses on the downside of voting, wants to remain cautious. As I said when he made this post, this is

exactly

what the Islamists want to do (not have to vote and let the Commies and Townies kill each other of) and

exactly

why I have been pressuring people to post and have been forcing debates.

Posting is good. Pressuring lurkers is an easy thing for anyone to do, scum or town, that doesn't require you to form an opinion. Voting is dangerous, especially when the town doesn't have the majority. The rewards almost always outweigh the risks, but you've been asking people who aren't voting to vote in a nonmajority situation where the Islamists are most likely to understand the numbers and gain the most from exploting them. Why would the Islamists not want to vote? They know exactly who needs to be lynched for them to win.

There's a sort of repetition of the obvious here, but I'm not sure what it means. Of course if we lynch Islamist today, we're not lynching Communist, and since we need to lynch Islamist today to win if we lynch at all, we can't lynch the last Communist.

There is no point to this post. It leaves all the interpretation up to the rest of the town and allows Norinel to keep a flexible opinion on KingPin, depending on what the rest of the town thinks of it.

That's what they call an observation.

If you weren't sold on germy, you should've said so in your first post. Instead, you merely stated his claim was redundant. You never said germy shouldn't be hammered, which would have been the logical thing to say there, looking at what you're saying here. Instead, you said nothing which could be interpreted as either for or against germy, again leaving room for change later.

The redundant claim was also an observation. Again, I didn't form an opinion because

I hadn't read the thread yet

.

You said absolutely nothing yesterday, and now you're acting like you knew germy was town.

I didn't say anything because I hadn't decided yet, because I hadn't read the thread. I didn't know germy was town. My point with the "not sold" comment was that not everyone agreed he was scum at the time, and it doesn't seem like a majority agreed he was scum.

So we shouldn't do anything, we should just sit here and wait for a deadline or something?

I didn't say we shouldn't do it, just that it'd be convenient for the Islamists. (And, of course, I stated my suspicions right after the bit you quoted) And everyone picking the person they would vote for isn't the only way to progress in the endgame.

[Zindaras]

1. I don't advocate lynching randomly from the bandwagoners. I don't even

directly

advocate lynching from the bandwagoners today. What I've been trying to say that you've been twisting around is that we shouldn't give everyone on the germy bandwagon a free pass for doing so.

You have not stated anything particularly directed against anyone on the germy lynch. You're simply stating we should be looking there, but you're not going into any specifics. You're not trying to catch scum, you're trying to direct the town. You're saying "There's scum on the germy wagon!". Not who, not why. You leave that up to others.

2. The numbers in this game at the moment are weird, partially because of the town nonmajority since Day 2 (Which I'm surprised people don't anticipate more, given how often it happens in the classic 3 mafia + SK mini) and minority now. I throw around numbers to try to give an idea of the

absolute minimum

number of scum in certain groups, given certain perspectives, and try to reason that if a group did something suspicious, then there might be more scum than the absolute
minimum.

You're ignoring the first lynch here. Let's take a look at it.

Vote count

7 - Shadowlurker (friday-13th, Cadre, Lucresia, KingPin, LyingBrian, germy, Thestatusquo)

2 - Kingpin (Nai, Shadowlurker)
2 - LyingBrian (chamber, sprontalic)

not voting: Rastapopoulos

4 people proposing a SL lynch (TSQ hopping on because of a running gag) that are still alive (friday/you, Cadre/Yos, Lucresia, KingPin). The same logic that, according to you, applies to the germy lynch, applies to this lynch as well, yet you are completely ignoring it. In fact, the only thing you've done with Day 1 is LyingBrian's counting post.

You have completely ignored the ShadowLurker lynch, which would be a nice thing for you to do, if you're Islamist. Pull attention to the germy lynch, and lead the town to ignore the ShadowLurker lynch, one where you were on.

Or are you saying that ShadowLurker got rightfully lynched and it wasn't a scummy thing to do?

You're throwing out very lopsided numbers.

It was a possibility, especially given that, in retrospect Nai's post 155 has the kind of certainty that people can get cop-with-guilty-result from

1) Every cop with a guilty results acts differently.
2) One does not have to be a Cop to be that sure. I've pulled the same gig myself, as normal town, just to see who'll jump on it.

and the Islamists have the biggest advantage in picking up tells because they can rule out possibilities and gain something from supporting any certain-looking vote that doesn't involve them.

Completely wrong, again. The other Communist would've had the biggest advantage in picking up these tells, because he'd know LyingBrian was Commie. The Islamists have two unsurities, the Communist only one.

And the way things turned out is a pretty good deal for the Islamists, since they got a free lynch and nightkill that couldn't've hit any of them.

And I'm to blame or something? Because I masterfully played into Nai's coptell, got LyingBrian close to being lynched, then tricked Nai into counterclaiming, thus making an awesome play for the Islamists?

I wish I were that good.

I'll direct you, for example, to Post 270, where I said I'd be voting Brian. To the fact that I was asleep at the time Nai counterclaimed and had little influence on that.

Also, "go[ing] for whoever seems best later" can also mean trying to figure out which ones are most likely to be scum.

Y'know, that'd work better when you actually do that. I haven't seen you look at the 'wagon, at the arguments.

The rewards almost always outweigh the risks, but you've been asking people who aren't voting to vote in a nonmajority situation where the Islamists are most likely to understand the numbers and gain the most from exploting them. Why would the Islamists not want to vote? They know exactly who needs to be lynched for them to win.

Let me propose a hypothetical situation. You and I are both non-Islamist (note that this is not an implausible situation. Number-wise, there's a 50% chance that any non-Islamist player attacks any other non-Islamist player). What will the Islamists be doing?

Exactly, they're going to sit on their behinds and let us duke it out, then pick up the spoils.

I've been asking for contribution all game, for the same reason I gave to LyingBrian when he refused to make a list:

It forces scum to state opinions

. If there's something scum likes, it's flexibility. And voting takes away a lot of flexibility.

That's what they call an observation.

Observations are nothing without interpretations.

The redundant claim was also an observation. Again, I didn't form an opinion because

I hadn't read the thread yet

.

So the logical pro-town thing to do was to say that you didn't want to see germy hammered yet, but wait until you had reread the thread.

I didn't say anything because I hadn't decided yet, because I hadn't read the thread.

See above.

I didn't know germy was town. My point with the "not sold" comment was that not everyone agreed he was scum at the time, and it doesn't seem like a majority agreed he was scum.

"I know I wasn't sold on germy."

Looks to me like you thought germy was town.

I didn't say we shouldn't do it, just that it'd be convenient for the Islamists. (And, of course, I stated my suspicions right after the bit you quoted) And everyone picking the person they would vote for isn't the only way to progress in the endgame.

Then you should suggest your alternative, instead of bottling it up.

[Zindaras]

Norinel, Yosarian2

: I'd like to see lists from you, like the ones I asked from LyingBrian and germy.

Thestatusquo, Lucresia, KingPin

: I want to see more contribution from you.

sprontalic

(because you'd feel alone, unloved and ignored if I wouldn't mention you as well): Hi.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm just watching the sparks fly, and watching my reads get firmer for now, zin.

[Zindaras]

I'm just watching the sparks fly, and watching my reads get firmer for now, zin.

Reveal them?

[Kelly Chen]

I prodded Lucresia a few days ago. KingPin said he would be gone until today.