Mini 1438: Gonzo Mafia (Scum Win)

[buldermar]

Yeah and if the cop doesn't out himself, scum have 1/9 chance to hit him. Doctor also has 1/11 chance to protect him but this doesn't matter because scum are not guaranteed to hit the cop.
So the doctor's chance is irrelevant.

I'm talking about the case in which the cop out himself versus the case in which the cop does not out himself. There are not equal chances of the doctor protecting the cop in these two cases, and the doctor's chance of protecting the cop is not irrelevant.

Vote Count:

SE-Asians (L-4): I Am Innocent, Bacde, Human Destroyer
buldermar (L-6): SE-Asians
borkjerfkin (L-6): pirate mollie
Remembrance (L-6): Wisdom
Bacde (L-6): Nachomamma8

Not Voting: Remembrance, mantisdreamz, AngelusW, kuror0, borkjerfkin, buldermar

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is April 13th at 9:30 PM EST

[Wisdom]

Not sure what you don't understand.

The cop outs himself -> Certain protection IF there is a doctor. Scum can choose to risk killing or kill someone else.

The cop doesn't out himself -> Scum have to choose killing someone. They'll get the cop with 1/9 chance. If there's a doctor, he has 1/11 chance to protect the cop. But this is irrelevant, because the doctor protecting the cop will only matter if scum hit the cop. Which isn't likely.

[Nachomamma8]

I think the best thing we can't do is only make the cops claim, so all the available docs for that night if any, will know who to protect but scum will be in the dark if there is any doc for that night or not so they have to take even higher risks.

ding ding ding
the entire point is that we're forcing scum to make risks and increase the likelihood of successful protects while keeping cops alive
if scum make the risk and get burned twice, that's an extra lynch for us.

people bringing up the whole "oh scum probably won't hit the cop randomly" miss the point completely.

[Nachomamma8]

Going to say why I support the idea: Because it sounds like fun and we get to fuck with the scum. they'll have to use their brains. and I like the mix up. Those who support it: Why?
Those who don't support it:
Why?

Because it's Nacho's idea! Oh and it looks good too...

lol, nacho was also in the diffusion of power game, I did not realise that he had replaced in. he was scum

so yeah, I am going to want to talk to nacho

hello i provided a plan you didn't comment on it
what do you want to talk about?

[Wisdom]

"while keeping cops alive"
Yeah because if there are not any N1 doctors and scum decide to risk it, the cop will totally live.

[Nachomamma8]

scum have no idea if there will be a doctor to the cop or not
literally none

[Wisdom]

And? If they risk it and there was no doc, cop dies.
While without a claim they will only hit a cop in 1/9 and he still might be protected.

[buldermar]

Not sure what you don't understand.

The cop outs himself -> Certain protection IF there is a doctor. Scum can choose to risk killing or kill someone else.

The cop doesn't out himself -> Scum have to choose killing someone. They'll get the cop with 1/9 chance. If there's a doctor, he has 1/11 chance to protect the cop. But this is irrelevant, because the doctor protecting the cop will only matter if scum hit the cop. Which isn't likely.

When the cop outs himself, the doctor knows who to protect. When the cop doesn't out himself, the doctor does not know who to protect. The doctor has greater chances of succesfully protecting someone when the cop outs himself compared to when the cop does not out himself, because the doctor will be more likely to protect the cop than any other person and the scum will be more likely to target the cop than any other person.

And you can keep your snide remarks to yourself, thanks.

[Wisdom]

buldermar, does the doctor need to protect he cop if the scum don't hit the cop?

[Nachomamma8]

And? If they risk it and there was no doc, cop dies.
While without a claim they will only hit a cop in 1/9 and he still might be protected.

if scum take the risk and fail, not only do we gain half of a lynch, but they also waste a shot in killing a cop of a different night
cops are going to die regardless (last game 1 cop got his investigation off without asking for protection)
this minimizes cop death because it maximizes possible doctor protection

[buldermar]

And? If they risk it and there was no doc, cop dies.
While without a claim they will only hit a cop in 1/9 and he still might be protected.

You're blatantly excluding important things from the equation. I've seriously tried to explain this to you three times now and you keep on just assuming that you're right and that I somehow fail to understand something.

Read

carefully

- please.

When the cop outs himself, is it correct that scum will be more likely to hit the cop.

However

, the doctor will

also

be more likely to protect a person that night (namely the cop). This means that, although the cop is more frequently killed when he outs himself compared to when he doesn't, there is a much higher chance of nobody at all being killed that night in case of the former than in case of the latter. This is by no means

irrelevant

, as you seem to insinuate. Scum wins when they reach majority so the overall survival rate each night is worth taking into the equation as well.

[buldermar]

buldermar, does the doctor need to protect he cop if the scum don't hit the cop?

Your superiority complex is quite irksome and I'm not going to entertain your provocative questions.

[Wisdom]

So the objective here is to find a way to reduce the likelihood of a successful kill, not find the best way for successful cop investigation. In that case, I agree.

[Nachomamma8]

10/13 agreed?

[SE-Asians]

So the plan summary is...

1)Doc claims
2)Cop claims after
3)Scum choose to kill cop... Doctor protects... We get result
4)Scum choose to kill doc... We get result from cop

Is that it? Or am I missing something?

[Wisdom]

nope, just cop claims.

[SE-Asians]

Nah I think the doc should claim first.

There's no guarantee that the cop will not die if only the cop claims.
So Doc should claim first

At least scum gets WIFOM panic.

[Wisdom]

Yeah that's what I also explained, but that's if our focus is the investigation.
If our focus is reducing the likelihood of the kill going through, it's better without a doctor claim, so that scum don't know if there is one.

[SE-Asians]

Btw if we're going through with this... Do we still random lynch or just no lynch everytime?

[SE-Asians]

If someone doesn't claim doc... then Scum might claim doc.
That's what I fear

[Wisdom]

If scum claim doc and cop dies, the doc was scum.

[SE-Asians]

They can pretty much choose to No Action.

They can't die.

Plus... If a doc dies... The pool would decrease. Then It'd be easier to know who scum are.

[Wisdom]

If they no kill, cops get investigations in. Their loss.

[SE-Asians]

But what's the probability of a doc protecting the cop?

They may NOT be a doc to protect the cop

[buldermar]

I have a suggestion.

Each day, the people that have action the following night outs themselves. However, they do not say if they are cop or doctor.

When there is just 1 who outs himself, that just sucks. This is what could have been avoided exactly half of the time with a strategy in which either the doctor or the cop outs himself before the other, but that strategy suffers from scum knowing who is the doc and who is the cop.

When there is 2 outing themselves, it leaves three possible permutations: {COP COP} {COP DOC} {DOC DOC}. As a strategy for this, any doctor protects the other person either always or some high percentage of the time (we can look into which number is optimal). If scum hits one of the two outed people and the these people always protect the other person when one or both is a doc, it results in:
50% failure (every time the person they don't hit is doc). In this case, the surviving person is cop about 50% of the time and doc about 50% of the time.
25% succes hitting a doc. In this case, the surviving person is a cop and will get a succesful investigation off.
25% succes hitting a cop. In this case, the surviving person is a cop and will get a succesful investigation off.

Then you just tweak the numbers so that the doctors are protecting any random person an appropriate percentage of the time. This has to be adjust according to how many later night 1-shot cop/doc's are left in the game.