Diffusion of Power (Open 478) over

[Human Destroyer]

I would rather lynch scum today than mis-lynch and lynch scum tomorrow.

I think Mit

is

the last scum though

And even on the off chance he isn't, his town flip would give us a confirmed town more than Nacho's.

[ProHawk]

How so?

[ProHawk]

@Nacho: You misread me in the past. You're misreading me again now (or you're scum and picking a bad lynch, since I'm essentially a VT now). Luckily my ISO is short, so you can enjoy reading the rest of it and changing your mind.

Vote: zabriel

If he's town, Cheery is potential scum.

^That was a really scummy post

Consider this an intent to hammer

This is the only post and the only evidence/case you have against Mit. Lets hear why you think he is the last scum.

Also, what changed your mind from this?

Yeah Mit would be town now.

Conf-town list:

Mitillos
ProHawk
Bacde

I guess CF Riot gets townpoints for claiming cop at a weird time too.

Leaving:

Cheery
zabriel
CF Riot

Jalyn

My reads have been fuck all this game so

VOTE: zabriel

Sheepity sheep sheep

You have Jalyn/Nacho in your list of scum.

[Human Destroyer]

Mit would have confirmed you as town if he was town.

Jalyn protected Bacde, who is already confirmed town.

P-Edit: It's still possible, I just find Mit more likely now that he's no longer conf/likely town.

[Human Destroyer]

This is the only post and the only evidence/case you have against Mit.

You mean other than the latter half of Day 1 where I attacked him nearly the whole way through, right?

[Cheery Dog]

ProHawk, it makes sense to lynch Mit first; if he's actually town, you're confirmed town unless Nacho flips town as well

Which is what I'm wanting to check with investigating the other one.
--------
But prohawk is right we should double check bacde's claim first, I don't want to accidentally be able to get killed.

Anyway it still probably is one of nacho/mit

I can see what changed his mind there.

[ProHawk]

This is the only post and the only evidence/case you have against Mit.

You mean other than the latter half of Day 1 where I attacked him nearly the whole way through, right?

I don't know, do your points still stand? Perhaps you would be willing to provide a quick summary for me.

[Human Destroyer]

Well now it's PoE.

It doesn't matter anymore, this is autowin. I'm not really gonna bother digging everything up right now if it's going to have no purpose.

[N]

Vote Count 5.04

Mitillos

( 3 ) Human Destroyer , Nachomamma8 , Cheery Dog

ProHawk

( 0 )

Bacde

( 0 )

Cheery Dog

( 0 )

Nachomamma8

( 1 ) ProHawk

Human Destroyer

( 0 )

Not voting:

Mitillos , Bacde

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2013-04-10 21:49:44)

[ProHawk]

Great, doesn't matter, so LETS LYNCH NACHO!!

[ProHawk]

Listen, this will be my best town game ever, if I was to get three scum-lynches right in a row. At least help me out with that HD, especially if you don't really care.

[Human Destroyer]

Wait wait wait

It

does

matter, I just realized

THE POSSIBLE SITUATIONS:

Town-Mit gets lynched: Nacho is confirmed scum
Scum-Mit gets lynched: Endgame
Town-Nacho gets lynched: Scum could be Mit OR ProHawk
Scum-Nacho gets lynched: Endgame

See why lynching Mit is better now?

[Bacde]

The probability is there, albeit very low. Thats why BACDE needs to get on board if McQueen lied as town to try and cover being a cop.

Mit protected me, lets kill Nacho first.

lol sorry man I try to only joke around when its obvious

Yes I'm a n5 doc

I even just rechecked

[Bacde]

I would rather lynch scum today than mis-lynch and lynch scum tomorrow.

I understand this completely

but I would rather set up a system that guarantees a town victory

even if it means we might mislynch

[Bacde]

I will still nominate you for best townie ever, prohawk

if that makes a difference

[ProHawk]

No HD, you are in this list too bro. Also, Town Mit doesn't confirm me, what are you smoking?

[Mitillos]

It is possible that both Nacho and I are town and scum is one of Pro/HD.. I personally think Nacho is the last scum, though.

Since everyone claimed N5 Doc, though, we have an alternative. We no-lynch. We have Bacde protect Cheery. We have both Pro and HD protect Bacde. At least one is telling the truth, so both confirmed town (Cheery and bacde) are certain to survive the night. Meanwhile, Cheery investigates one of the 4 potential scum (me, Nacho, Pro, HD). Scum will most likely kill one of these three, as well. With any luck, Cheery will investigate someone else. Even if Cheery gets an innocent result, we have 3 confirmed townies and 2 non-confirmed, tomorrow. Lynch one, then the other, town wins. The only snag will be if Cheery happens to investigate the kill target. So, I recommend rolling a die to decide that. That way, there will be no way for scum to predict his investigation target and kill accordingly.

Vote: No Lynch

[ProHawk]

Good grief Mit. I am TRYING TO SAVE YOUR LIFE HERE!

No way scum will kill to make PoE easier to find and lynch them. Cheery will survive tonight regardless of who we lynch. He will have information for us tomorrow regardless of who we lynch (unless we kill scum and win, or unless his target dies). A no lynch is a terrible idea.

It looks like ya'll are going to be difficult so I will work on some more evidence gathering later.

[Mitillos]

You may have a point. I need to think about this some more.

Unvote

[Mitillos]

Yeah, Pro is right.

Vote: Nacho

[Cheery Dog]

We just need to follow what I posted before.

The night 5 docs protect the clears (me and bacde) and whoever I end up investing (whichever of nacho/mit we don't lynch today should the game be going.

If they both are somehow town, meaning one of hd/pro is attempting a gambit on nacho/mit being the next two lynches, that will fail on me getting an innocent as the only kill choices that would work and go through are the other going through this plan.

Can you three docs confirm who you are protecting tonight on the bain of being tomatoes lynch and probable town loss on your shoulders should the person you're protecting die overnight.

[Human Destroyer]

I know, I protect Bacde tonight.

[Cheery Dog]

And then we lynch either of the night 3 doc claims, I'm willing to switch votes if needed.

[ProHawk]

Here is another VCA with updated colors.


Day 1 Mis-Lynch:

Spoiler: Count with Colors

Day 1- Vote Count 1.27

chkflip

( 3 )

Wisdom

,

zabriel

,

RachMarie

Mitillos

( 0 )

kmd4390

( 0 )

RachMarie

( 7 )

CF Riot

,

BeautyAndTheBeast

, Human Destroyer , ProHawk ,

mcqueen

, Mitillos ,

chkflip

ProHawk

( 1 ) theslimer3

mcqueen

( 0 )

theslimer3

( 0 )

BeautyAndTheBeast

( 0 )

Wisdom

( 2 ) Jalyn ,

kmd4390

zabriel

( 0 )

CF Riot

( 0 )

Jalyn

( 0 )

Human Destroyer

( 0 )

Not voting:

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Where does the third scum lie in this vote count? Do you think that the day one mis-lynch was filled with town? I personally feel like the probability of this is extremely low. Jalyn/Nacho was not on the mis-lynch wagon along with two confirmed scum that stayed off it. That leaves

HD

,

Pro

, and

Mitilos

as possible scum.


Day 2 Mis-Lynch:

Spoiler: Count and Colors

Vote Count 2.04

chkflip

( 6 )

kmd4390

,

zabriel

,

CF Riot

,

BeautyAndTheBeast

, Mitillos ,

mcqueen

Mitillos

( 0 )

kmd4390

( 3 ) ProHawk , Human Destroyer ,

chkflip

ProHawk

( 0 )

mcqueen

( 0 )

theslimer3

( 0 )

BeautyAndTheBeast

( 0 )

zabriel

( 0 )

CF Riot

( 0 )

Jalyn

( 0 )

Human Destroyer

( 0 )

Not voting:

theslimer3 , Jalyn ,

chkflip

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Here is where things start to look a lot better for Mitillos. Three scum on a mis-lynch wagon? Highly unlikely. Mit looks town from this VCA.

Day 3 Scum-Lynch:

Spoiler: Counting with Colors

Vote Count 3.11

Mitillos

( 4 )

CF Riot

, Jalyn , Human Destroyer ,

kmd4390

kmd4390

( 5 ) ProHawk ,

zabriel

,

Bacde

, Cheery Dog , Mitillos

ProHawk

( 0 )

Bacde

mcqueen

( 0 )

Cheery Dog

( 0 )

zabriel

( 0 )

CF Riot

( 0 )

Jalyn

( 0 )

Human Destroyer

( 0 )

Not voting:

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Is the third scum bussing his partner? Or is he helping to push a counter-wagon? Judging by how hard it was to get KMD lynched, I am leaning toward scum helping with the counter-wagon. This leaves

Nacho

and

HD

.

Day 4 Scum-Lynch:

Spoiler: This Should be the Last One

Vote Count 4.11

Mitillos

( 1 )

CF Riot

ProHawk

( 0 )

Bacde

( 0 )

Cheery Dog

( 0 )

zabriel

( 5 ) ProHawk , Mitillos , Cheery Dog , Human Destroyer , Nachomamma8

CF Riot

( 0 )

Nachomamma8

( 0 )

Human Destroyer

( 1 )

zabriel

Not voting:

Bacde

So um looking at these counts, I have come to the conclusion that I may be wrong about HD and his reveal. He continually keeps coming up in scummy voting positions, whereas both Nacho and Mit oscillate back and forth. I had originally said that Scum-HD would have been more likely to claim Cop than Doc with the knowledge of the total number of Cop/Doc's, as a Doc claim certainly confirms one player lying about their claim, but it is also may be likely that he didn't consider the implications, or was hoping that a foolish move would clear him to MYLO? Also three Night 5 Doc's is a bit excessive I think.

Looking at Day 1 - between Mit and HD

, Mit has been a major counter-wagon to scum two times, was on a mis-lynch wagon with two confirmed scum, and called for a mass-claim that would ultimately lead to his death. HD has been on the D1 Mis-Lynch with none of the confirmed scum-dudes. He avoided the Day 2 mis-lynch in a possible bus for cred attempt. The evidence clearly points to HD, and away from Mit. Jalyn/Nacho falls in as a close second with less positive evidence confirming pro-town play.

Basically Mit's play looks like he had no clue of what the scum-team was doing, whereas HD looks

exactly

like he knew where scum was. According to VCA evidence, the likelihood of scum is

HD >> Nacho > Mitillos.

I think we should do the following:

Of the four unconfirmed Docs, two are night 5 docs, two are night 3 docs. I propose that we determine which player in two groups is the scummier of the two. That is choose scum from

Pro and HD

; and choose scum from

Mit and Nacho

. We lynch one from the night 3 docs just to cover our bases and not inadvertently kill a night 5 doc. The other group needs to be copped. So if we figured HD was the scummier of Pro and HD, and Nacho was the scummier of Mit and Nacho, then we would lynch Nacho and HD would be investigated.

My vote that the two scum lie between HD and Nacho. I would prefer to just lynch HD as the evidence against him is overwhelming, however its better to be safe than sorry. But I believe that Nacho is the scummier of Nacho and Mit, so my vote is to lynch him first.

As was already mentioned I believe, one of us N5 Docs needs to protect Cheery. One of us needs to protect his investigated target, and one of us needs to protect BACDE, a confirmed town. Cheery, you need to make this list and make sure all of us confirm who we will be protecting. You also need to tell us who you will be investigating.

[ProHawk]

Also, I don't think that BACDE should protect Cheery as he is already confirmed. Either HD or myself should protect Cheery because if Cheery dies, then the person who said they would protect him is confirmed-scum.