Continued from previous Post,
The top reason I believe Glork to be innocent is because I would have expected him to throw a noncontributive scumbuddy under the bus quite a while ago(I honestly don’t expect all of the scumbags we’re dealing with to be type A personality psychopaths who are putting up the air of looking for scum). I’ve seen how Glork reacts to pressure in terms of high expectations in scumchat and his reaction so far is analogous as far as the medium of talk is concerned. I can see that some might say he would put on a 2 month farce and keep it running while making it look like he is trying to find scum but I honestly don’t see anyone who is scum putting on a 2 month farce and putting the sheer amount of effort I’ve witnessed from him into this game.
LuckayLuck (rep. Ameliaslay)
LL’s stated preference for mafia games is to look for townies and then deduce the scum from those who are left over(referencing N285 and M368) He also gets brownie points for having an Izzet Guidmage in his icon, why Glorkos doesn’t get points for his Nezumi…. Well it’s cuz I think his nezumi is an overrated crappy card that I wouldn’t pick in a draft.
Post 0 follows the criterion, marks MoS MBL NS PJ Pab as townies.
Post 1 Marks as against 3 people but only very weakly and also marked 3 people as unsure of, marked all other players as slightly to highly townie.(sounds like he doesn’t want to piss any1 off but pretty solid stuff for a newbie this early. Not much fundamentally wrong with his logic since most of it is based off gut instincts.)
Post 6:
Supports strongly,
MoS
MBL
Nightson
Pablito
petroleumjelly
Glork
There is also that quite helpful chart he made in Post 17.
I expect he’s not scum from the sheer number of players he’s marked off as townie to highly townie, I would expect a scum player to mark off fewer townies in order to keep more viable lynch candidates around. I also don’t believe he’s working to get people to not suspect him by saying he thinks they are townie because he’s simply cast too many of those connections.
Mastermind of Sin
He starts off by saying he’s never going to vote till he’s King, certainly something I’d expect from MoS, it doesn’t really change whether he’s more or less likely to be scum because this guy honestly doesn’t care about what role he is when he does things, if he wants to do it, he’ll do it regardless of which side he’s on.
He honestly doesn’t say very much this game, he doesn’t push very hard for the people he thinks are guilty or defend adamantly the people he thinks are innocent. Basically he won’t be saying much, this is type of behaviour is more in line with general MoS behaviour, he will pursue it regardless of alignment. I’m more willing to put him in my townie column because I’ve just seen so many games where MoS psuedolurks through and will defend his lurkish strategy.
Mert
0:a vote without any reasoning, logic or commentary, no random or anything. Kind of pointless in a KM game considering your vote is only as good as the reasoning behind it since it does nothing by itself.
1:A joke filler
2-10: he really doesn’t say anything concrete in terms of who he suspects, tho he criticizes the methodology of several players, he does not push them, yes he votes for these people but he does not push for their execution very hard/
21:rather ironic he would jump on a bandwagon on me with the logic that I jumped on a bandwagon after a notable absence.
The guy doesn’t really say much of substance, I can say the same thing for plenty of players so far. The easiest way for scum to hide is to stay within the current, when they see most players lurk, they will follow along and do the same.
MrBuddyLee
I like MBL a whole lot in this game, probably because his ideas are so like mine. I could analyze every post over again but I’m short on time and u guys probly won’t read it anyway.
He’s right, Glork, stop putting yourself under so much damn pressure and accept the fact that you need the help of the rest of the bloody town to win this game.
Plus I don’t think the ideal scum strategy is to poke at the King a lot. Could be mega wifom but I highly doubt it.
Nightfall (rep. UberTimmy)
Has 1 post, the guy who he’s replacing didn’t do much better. Solid lurker.
Nightson (rep. Vikingfan)
Does better than predecessor in expressing suspicions. Hasn’t posted enough for me to put him solidly in any camp, on gut I’d say he’s more likely to be town than mafia(after adjusting for whatever ratio the town has in favor of it of course).
pablito
Unlike most players, I like pab, I understand the point of his argumentation and his logic.
He seems to make a real effort in terms of actually playing the game, and there are cute tidbits like Post 67.
I like his posts in 43 61 74 and 84.
But here’s the biggest reason I think Pab=protown, he starts the game by putting enormous pressure on Glork, even more pressure than if some1 had voted Glork. He put confidence into the fact that Glork would catch scum, that’s stronger pressure because it puts the onus of catching scumbags on Glork.(He’s pretty susceptible to unreasonable expectations) A Glork with unreasonable expectations of himself is a dangerous thing
I don’t see Pab trying to create that with a move that also draws attention to himself, it’d be like a doubleshot against himself.
petroleumjelly
He’s PJ
I love him
But there’s no way I’m reading all of his posts.(short on time, and plus I’m 19 minutes over the time I had put up for rereading this game already.)
The overwhelming consensus I get from rereading the other posts b4 is that they think PJ is protown, from what I have reread I get that sense too.
I’m over the time I’ve allocated for game rereading and I have 2 finals on Monday and 2 on Thursday so I’m not even sure if I’ll be back to finish this analysis.
Summary So Far:
It’s a rather peculiar stretch of time over the multiple crashes that will kill activity quickly, plus there is the natural lurking that goes on anyway this type of climate in Mountainous favors scum, our best course of action is to revert to a voting/killing formula that will kill lurking to a high extent, I could design something of that fashion but the natural lurking problem probly won't go away on its own. I might or might not be around to finish this later dependent upon how well studying goes for my finals.
PJ isn't PJ anymore
