Mini 391 - Fairytale Mafia, Game Over

[chaotic_diablo]

Mod can we have a votecount?

Oh god.. I have to work now...

Vote Count

IH (2): LuckayLuck, bird111
Echo419

(4)

: IH, wolfsbane, Seol, Green Crayons

Not Voting: Lowell, Dodgy, Echo419, Rathyr, spectrumvoid, Ripley

7 to lynch

Replacement for Dodgy is still in progress.

[Ripley]

Also, I'm waiting for replacements for bird & yellowbounder. Getting the word from those 2 will likely alter my perception a lot.

You really don't have the faintest idea what's going on, do you?

[LuckayLuck]

Also, I'm waiting for replacements for bird & yellowbounder. Getting the word from those 2 will likely alter my perception a lot.

You really don't have the faintest idea what's going on, do you?

holy crap...
uhh...
omg.

Time to re-evaluate, I'll have something good soon. Also, I'll just say it again...Echo has evoked the townie tell at least 3 times now for me to have put him at 9.5 at the time of my post. And now, he's townie tell'd even more.

Echo = townie
I think I actually do have pretty much everyone now...all I need to do is mix all the data up and my magic box will come up with the answer.

[chaotic_diablo]

M4yhem replaces Dodgy.

[IH]

LL, I must say.... do you just peg the people coming under the most heat as townie? (Refers to Royal Mafia and Canuckle)

[LuckayLuck]

LL, I must say.... do you just peg the people coming under the most heat as townie? (Refers to Royal Mafia and Canuckle)

No.
At the very least, you know that I don't peg people for townie just because they come under heat (Seol, GC)

However, when people are under heat, they give off larger signs of townie/mafianess.

[M4yhem]

Hello everybody! I will be your Dodgy for the day.

A special hello to Echo and Spectrumvoid, who I've had the pleasure of playing with before. Flashbacks, Echo?

Anyway, I've read the thread, and I believe I will be voting Rathyr. He's been keeping his head down, and his comments have mostly noncomittal fence-sitting, or undermining the towns efforts at scumhunting by complaining about how much there is to read. Or at least, that's the impression I got.
Rathyr- Who do you suspect and why?

I think Luckay Luck's strategy is the ramblings of an insaneiac, but I find him relatively protown. LL, I suggest you try to adapt your style to these boards, otherwise you are going to be lynched a lot out of annoyance.

Echo- Who do you suspect, and why? I find the things you say a bit troubling; seeing you take a stance on something would make you easier for me to read, I think.

Vote:Rathyr

[spectrumvoid]

As a replacement, I thought it'll make common sense to spend time reading the game over. I generally don't trust other people to tell me what went on. While I wasn't hoping for a miracle, I hoped to at least feel a few scum vibes.

LuckayLuck, care to explain why you're 95% sure Echo is a townie?

[LuckayLuck]

I dunno about everyone esle, but I tend to ignore those epic point-by-point battles- the intricacies are insignificant to all but those directly involved, and it's a ton to read. 9/10, it's two townies convinced the other is scum, maybe subtley egged on by others, and not neccessarily scum either- there are people who can read and analyze these kinds of arguments. I know I can't, and it appears others dislike it as well.

Townie Tell #1: Does not end up attacking anybody while worsening their relationship with people.

Seol, I like to stay consistent...
I dunno... I was a bit interested in seeing LL's apparently mindblowing post. Looking back, most of my reasons for voting him were based on playstyle... which is aggravating, as it's such an easy excuse. I'll keep my vote there for now. I really don't like the whole mason thing.
I dislike Day 1. The problem is there isn't really much going on, yet we still have to get some discussion going. Too often scum slipups and town mistakes look similar. Be that as it may, I'll try to tkae a look at those monstrosities.
Any luck on yellow's replacement?

Townie Tell #2: I misread this post. I thought Echo was voting for me and admitting "it's aggravating, as it's such an easy excuse [to vote LL]". Now that I re-look at it, it's actually sort of a scummy post.

But regardless, I put Echo at a 9.5, and he changed his actions drastically such that now my 9.5 is actually accurate.

...lol...
Of course it's a lot harder to argue with someone who agrees with you...
Now I have a tough decision- keep attacking LL, even though he has me pegged as protown? Or back off and be seen as a person easily mollified? I will decide tomorrow.

In RL time, obv.

Townie Tell #2 (Real): A scum does not have this soliloquy with himself. This is a VERY strong tell.

Consistently scummy?

Consistently supporting my causes.

Do you think it's scummy (as opposed to poor play)?

That's just the problem. It's hard to tell.

Why does his saying he thinks you're pro-town make you want to stop attacking him? Does it make you think he's more likely to be pro-town?

Because attacking him undermines my own integrity. Attacking someone who thinks well of you means I have one less supporter.
Great. Now I'm a hypocrite.

Unvote LL

I've decided, after looking him over, it's his playstlye, and not inherent scumminess. Unfortunately I can see scum WIFOMing this a lot in future days... beware.
Seol, I have questions for you.
Are you voting me because I'm scummy, or because you think I'm good lynch?
Are you attacking me because I stopped going after LL, your quarry, or because of the reasons for it?
What is your opinion on Day 1 lynches? Go for most informative or most scummy? Do you see a difference? How much?

Townie Tell #3: Calls himself a hypocrite. Yes, scum can do this to WIFOM, but the context of this means he is not WIFOMing. It ends up that this is a really strong townie tell too.



Echo = townie

[wolfsbane]

This is my take on LL's townie tells. I'm not going to quote his entire post because it would take me all day to get the tags right.

Townie Tell #1: Does not end up attacking anybody while worsening their relationship with people.

I disagree. He may have worsened his relationship with the mega-posters but he improved his relationship with the "too much to read" crowd.

Townie Tell #2 (Real): A scum does not have this soliloquy with himself. This is a VERY strong tell.

Maybe, maybe not. How do you know this? In any case, it's a one shot deal. Your future games will be filled with soliloquies. Are you sure you haven't already used this one up in some other game?

Townie Tell #3: Calls himself a hypocrite.

Yes, scum can do this to WIFOM

, but the context of this means he is not WIFOMing. It ends up that this is a really strong townie tell too.

Calling yourself a hypocrite looks like an appeal to emotion to me. Scum and town both do this, but it is bad play for town imo, therefore scummy.

[Echo419]

lol M4yhem...
Cool, the big boys are fighting over me!
Scummy List
... I hate lists... I'm just gonna put a bunch of people down here...
Mayhem- no read lol
Raythr- A bit incinsistent with posts, not a huge amount of content, could be anything. Not much of a read.
Seol- Interesting. Logical rampage indeed. Aggressive townie or aggressive scum. Leaning towards scum because he appears to me to be getting in a lot of fights- not neccessarily scummy, but perhaps unhealthy for the game. I worry he's gonna become a really dominant factor in the later game, which could kill us if he's scum.
spectrumvoid- Finish that reread, it's only 8 pages lol.
wolfsbane- Does the occasional okay analysis. Looks pretty town to me.
LL-... sigh... I dunno. Alien playstyle. Thinks I'm protown, which could be signs of perceptive town or simple scum. Odd playstyle. Witholding judgment for now.
The above are in no particular order or anything... not much of an LoS. I just got home from school. Later on I'll have a more detailed analysis. That means I'll actually read the game. Till then.

[IH]

1-Disagree. Wolfsbane is right that that statement is innacurate because others (such as Dodgy and Rathyr) said they didn't like big posts.
2-WIFOM. Some just talk to themselves.
3-Neutral. In fact, maybe a little on the scummy side. Just because they called out an INCONSISTENCY of their own posts does not mean they're town. In fact, they've just pointed something out, so you should be watching them closer.

[spectrumvoid]

Echo: In case you didn't notice, I've gone through this game in DETAIL 4 times.

I'm not getting the townie tells. They're based largely on personal opinion, and individual playstyle, and I can also see them being scummy/neutral tells. I don't really see LL as scummy for saying Echo is town, just that I think LL is a confused townie who needs to have a better scumdar.

I'm going to do a m4yhem and

vote: Rathyr

Since one vote didn't get him talking. And I value Rathyr as a player, his input should be helpful.

[Echo419]

Sorry gang, it's gotten late. I'll have to cook up that post tomorrow. High school is no fun.
PS- "The previous pages consist of people picking out weak scum tells, accusing the people who make the scumtell, then other people accusing the accuser for accusing someone with weak reasons. Then other people siding with either the original accuser or the people who are accusing with the accuser." isn't much of a detailed summary :/

[M4yhem]

Bad idea, Echo. Looks like you are stalling.

Still, I really want to know what Rathyr has to say for himself. He hasn't posted much, but every post he has made lights little flames of doubt in my mind. C'mon guys, you get what I'm saying, don't you? This guy needs some serious pressure on him. Don't make me do a PBPA. I will if I have to.

Spectrumvoid- Thank you. 'Doing a m4yhem', heh.

Rathyr, if you are reading, defend yourself. I'm not going to go away because you don't post. I want to know why you are so hesitant to give your opinions, so early in the game.

Echo- your list of suspects contains a lot of 'could bes'. To me, not making a commitment to one side or the other is a bit of a tell- scum like to hedge their bets.

I also disagree with this:

Seol- . Leaning towards scum because he appears to me to be getting in a lot of fights- not neccessarily scummy, but perhaps unhealthy for the game.

I think fights are

good

for the game. When people get emotional, they tend to slip up more, which can be useful for finding scum. Forcing people to defend themselves can tell you a huge amount about what they are really thinking. Plus I find them fun to read

I agree Seol's experience is scary, but I see no reason yet to think he's scum.

As for you, Echo, would it be true to say you are a fairly nervous player?

Since everyone else is doing it, my thoughts on Luckay's 'townie tells':

Townie Tell #1: Does not end up attacking anybody while worsening their relationship with people.

I just don't understand what is meant by this at all. If you mean that townies are afraid to attack people for fear of making enemies, my answer to that is 'hell, no'.
But maybe you meant something else, Luckay?

Townie Tell #2: I misread this post. I thought Echo was voting for me and admitting "it's aggravating, as it's such an easy excuse [to vote LL]". Now that I re-look at it, it's actually sort of a scummy post.

Why would that have been townlike?

Townie Tell #2 (Real): A scum does not have this soliloquy with himself. This is a VERY strong tell.

I sort of agree with this. I think Echo was being very honest about his thinking, which is not, IMO, a scummy trait.

Townie Tell #3: Calls himself a hypocrite. Yes, scum can do this to WIFOM, but the context of this means he is not WIFOMing. It ends up that this is a really strong townie tell too.

Again, I agree, It's the 'honesty factor.' But this can be faked very easily.

Also, Luckay, you realise that the scum can read these tells and then adjust their behaviour accordingly? What's your success rate with this strategy? How many games have you won?

[Lowell]

I'm up for a little lurker-prodding.

vote Rathyr

[LuckayLuck]

Townie Tell #2 (Real): A scum does not have this soliloquy with himself. This is a VERY strong tell.

I sort of agree with this. I think Echo was being very honest about his thinking, which is not, IMO, a scummy trait.

Townie Tell #3: Calls himself a hypocrite. Yes, scum can do this to WIFOM, but the context of this means he is not WIFOMing. It ends up that this is a really strong townie tell too.

Again, I agree, It's the 'honesty factor.' But this can be faked very easily.

Also, Luckay, you realise that the scum can read these tells and then adjust their behaviour accordingly? What's your success rate with this strategy? How many games have you won?

It is very, very hard to fake honesty.

Echo, the scum CAN read these tells and adjust their behavior, which is why I have been reluctant to actually give a full explanation of what exactly constitutes townie/scum tells, but I don't have my success rate to point to on this site so I'm going to be a little more explaining.

Success rate = high, win rate = high, I can tell you that much :p

[LuckayLuck]

WOOHOO
I just realized my first newbie game on this site has finished, and I can point to it as a really big signal that I may not be a nutcase. I am a little more subtle since it's a newbie game, but you'll see me demonstrating the exact same actions that I've been doing here.

It's only 7 pages, and townie sweeps by lynching two mafia on day 1 and day 2. I correctly assess two villagers and by process of elimination nail the mafia, which is my style.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4194

[IH]

.......Why are you voting? Have you seen him on since you posted? Why not ask for a

prod

?

[M4yhem]

Lowell - It's ironic for you to go after the lurkers, seeing as you haven't said that much yourself.

It is very, very hard to fake honesty.

I strongly disagree.

Echo, the scum CAN read these tells and adjust their behavior, which is why I have been reluctant to actually give a full explanation of what exactly constitutes townie/scum tells, but I don't have my success rate to point to on this site so I'm going to be a little more explaining.

Success rate = high, win rate = high, I can tell you that much :p

You talkin' to me? You must be talkin' to me; nobody else said anything like what you are replying to.

It is important to explain your reasons for suspecting/ not suspecting someone, because otherwise we have no way of knowing if you are making things up. Of course, when giving the town information you are also feeding the scum information on how to act. So stay alert, that's all I'm saying.

I have to admit your newbie game impressed me. I wish some of mine had gone as smoothly.

So, Luckay, what do you think of Rathyr?

IH- yes, a prod would help, but personally I'm voting Rathyr because his 'I'm-just-checking-in' posts for the sake of posting seem suspicious to me and I want to see how he defends himself.

Ripley- Why are you not in the votecount? Are you voting/ suspicious of anyone currently- if so,

who

and

why?

Chaotic

- can we have a prod on Rathyr, please? Thanks in advance. Also, Ripley is missing from the votecount.

[Seol]

LL: Please stop with the townie tells. I know you think you know what you're talking about, but trust me, the thought processes you've described thus far are naive. They may be effective with noobs, or in an inexperienced playerbase, but they're not as strong as you believe.

It may be I'm incorrect, and you have a superb scumdar but aren't quite describing it properly, but you haven't established any real credibilty yet so for the time being please take this on board: continuing to talk about "townie tells" and "95% townie" is having one main effect: people are not taking you seriously. This does not benefit you, nor does it benefit the town.

Echo:

More concerningly, I'm also getting the impression that Echo thinks that's how he should be playing:

Isn't it?

No, it isn't. Conflict avoidance with the intent of self-preservation is scummy, and that's a pattern that you've established quite well. I can understand why you might believe it would be a sensible townie strategy - the longer more townies survive, the better for the town, but it doesn't work out like that. I

can

believe you were acting in this way, consciously and deliberately, believing it was correct.

So, for now,

unvote: Echo

.

[Ripley]

First of all, sorry for the silence during the last few days when I haven't been able to post.

Ripley- Why are you not in the votecount? Are you voting/ suspicious of anyone currently- if so, who and why?

1. Not my responsibility.
2a. No.
2b. No.
3a. Not applicable.
3b. Not applicable.

I think fights are good for the game. When people get emotional, they tend to slip up more, which can be useful for finding scum. Forcing people to defend themselves can tell you a huge amount about what they are really thinking.

I think there are fights and fights. A townie is a townie, so it doesn't matter how emotional they get, there's no slipping to be done. Probably a high percentage of really wordy arguments are actually townie v townie, because townies are more inclined to post at length and less careful about watching their words. I suppose what I'm saying here is they're more likely to be useful in ruling out scum than finding scum. And it does seem, looking back at what's happened here so far, that this has been the most common reaction to the people who have engaged in wordy arguments - that they're likely protown.

Rathyr does seem very detached from the game, and is not even trying to hide it. His last post, the only one from him in 6 days:

Checking in.

I have no idea who I am voting at this point, so I will Unvote.

just screams "Not interested".

LuckayLuck. Your towniedar - which is what we have to call it since the technique seems to identify townies exclusively, the scum being pinpointed by process of elimination - certainly did work for you in your newbie game. However.

In, say, 30% of the games you play, you're going to be scum. Your style as protown is to bound about like a happy puppy sniffing out townies and presenting them proudly for approval. tail wagging. So, when you're scum, if you want to avoid being instantly identified as such and lynched on the spot, you have to

pretend

to bound about like a happy puppy sniffing out townies, etc etc etc. How are we supposed to know that's not what you're doing now? (Incidentally, I didn't even understand what you were saying in the first two Echo tells you listed.)

[chaotic_diablo]

Vote count is fixed. Ripley is now there. Rathyr will be prodded.

[Rathyr]

OK, I hate to say it, but I'm going to have to ask for a replacement. Life+the three or so other mafia games I am playing in various places=too much to concentrate on.

[M4yhem]

Can't we just lynch you instead of having to wait, Rathyr? I mean, you are scum, right? You can tell me, I won't tell anyone*.
Sorry to lose you, either way.

I think fights which reveal probable townies can be as useful as fights which reveal scum, Ripley.

How can you not suspect anybody? I just don't understand. You must have some kind of idea? A twitch, a figure of speech, a glass eye- any of these can be a clue.

As for Luckay being scum- if he is he's in trouble because he either will point out genuine townies, which helps us, or establish clear links between him and his scumbuddies, which also helps us. Of course, noone is above suspicion, but I see no reason to mistrust him yet. Do you, Ripley?

Thanks, mod.








*anyone who isn't in this game, I mean.