Mini 392: Jungle Republic - Game over!

[Zindaras]

You don't think it's a good strategy for the real Seer not to counterclaim?

I need to rethink this game. This Seer claim confuses me.

Yos has a point about us having to lynch scum today. Germy's kinda pinged my dar over the course of the game.

I need to stop posting at late times where I'm easily influenced because of my sleepdrunk state.

[Thestatusquo]

unvote, vote germy

[KingPin]

FOS: Yosarian2

1. LB was at lynch -1 at the time he claimed. Zin unvoted right afterwards bringing him to L-2 and then Germy added an additional vote bringing him back to L-1.

2.

We know the role is in the game, so if he dosn't get counterclaimed he's a good guy.

This is incorrect. See Nai's response: Seer remaining hidden is better than outing him/her.

[Yosarian2]

"that action is not a scumtell, so it neither shows me to be scum or shows me to be town"

Um, no; if LB is the cop, then trying to lynch him definatly is a scum tell. Nice try though.

You don't think it's a good strategy for the real Seer not to counterclaim?

(shrug) I don't think I've ever seen someone people try to fake claim cop on day 2 of an open role game. Even if it worked, I don't think the communists would want to trade one of their only 2 members just to out the cop; that'd only leave 1 commmunist left, and the odds would be greatly in favor of either the town or the islamists, especally as, according to the rules, a 1 scum 1 islamist endgame=an islamist win.

Lying Brian could be trying to pull off a gambit, it's certanly possible, but evem with all the suspicious posts he's made, I'd guess there's at least a 50/50 chance he's telling the truth, and I'm certanly not willing to risk lynching the seer at this point.

I don't think that's true, Yosarian, that he has to be town. I think he's scum, have since I did a read to catch up. I think our cop is being intelligent and letting Brian dig his own grave so that he himself isn't outted. The cop SHOULD be waiting, I think, until he can find the other werewolf. He's more useful to us hidden and searching for our final NK scum.

...unless lying brian is the cop.

[Yosarian2]

By the way, the timing of germy's vote is what is so scummy here. I can see someone who was suspicious of LB before still being after the claim. But germy showed no sign of being suspicious of lying brian before his claim, and in fact semi-defended him, but then voted for him AFTER he claimed cop. That would be a really bizzare thing for a pro-town person to do.

[Yosarian2]

FOS: Yosarian2

1. LB was at lynch -1 at the time he claimed. Zin unvoted right afterwards bringing him to L-2 and then Germy added an additional vote bringing him back to L-1.

Right; my point was that germy voted for LB while he was at -2, after he claimed cop, sorry if I was unclear.

2.

We know the role is in the game, so if he dosn't get counterclaimed he's a good guy.

This is incorrect. See Nai's response: Seer remaining hidden is better than outing him/her.

[/quote]

I disagree. If we don't lynch a bad guy today, we're in very deep trouble; out only real hope would be for a cross-kill, because if we lynch a pro-town person today and another dies tonight, the town would have next to no chance of winning; the town's chances of winning a 3 town, 2 communist, 3 islamist game would be very small. So if a seer counter-claim today would let us know LB is lying scum and get us a right lynch today, it'd defiantly be worth it. And on the other hand, if LB is the seer, then lynching him would be an unmitigated disaster for the town. I'm not willing to take that risk at this point of the game.

[Nai]

Why do you assume so readily that he's a communist? I think there's a high chance of him being an islamist, too. Either way, town wins when he's lynched. I can't see a cop playing like LyingBrian has been, very recklessly and such.

I also find it very suspicious that you want the Seer to claim. Run this scenario through your head: Seer claims. LyingBrian dies. Seer dies during the night (as the communists can't let him live in this setup). That leaves town without our trump card. And YOU seem to want the seer to claim, just so you are satisfied that LB is not him.

Considering that we lost two townies already, we're almost set even among the three groups. There's a very high chance he's from the scum groups. Again, I am certain he's not town, and DEFINITELY not the Seer. You were convinced, it seemed, that he was scum, but all of a sudden he calls Seer and you're now unwilling to touch him? That's a very suspicious reversal.

[Thestatusquo]

Again, I am certain he's not town, and DEFINITELY not the Seer.

Why?

I also find it very suspicious that you want the Seer to claim. Run this scenario through your head: Seer claims. LyingBrian dies. Seer dies during the night (as the communists can't let him live in this setup). That leaves town without our trump card. And YOU seem to want the seer to claim, just so you are satisfied that LB is not him.

You stopped running the scenario, and replaced it with your own opinion. The actual scenario is this:

Seer claims
lying brian dies-5 town, 4 scum
seer dies in the night 4 town, 4 scum

Seer does not claim.
Lying brian does not die-Assuming a misslynch 4 town, 5 scum
Someone dies at night 3 town, 5 scum.

Assuming a correct lynch- 5 town 4 scum
someone dies at night 4 town, 4 scum

With seer claiming, we definitely have 4-4 going into the next day, which is the best case scenario for not claiming. If the seer does not claim and we fuck up, then it's 3-5, and town is fucked. Now. I don't think you care about that, because I think you're not town, but I care.

Be more clever in your attempt to decieve us next time

unvote, vote nai

FOS: Germy

I'm reasonably sure they're both scum.

Conclusion: Seer should counterclaim if lying brian is not it. If I do not see a counter claim, I will assume lying brian is seer.

[Nai]

Funny. I went, rather quickly, from TSQ convinced I was town, to TSQ thinking I'm scum, now he's convinced I am scum.

Why would you assume he's the Seer? Has he played like a cop? I've never known a cop to attract a lot of attention to himself, because he doesn't want the scum to go after him. LyingBrian has been an outright player in this game, and has made a lot of noise and waves. That doesn't sound like a cop to me. Especially the fact that he seemed suspicious of you yesterday, but then and investigated a very low key player. That doesn't sound very cop-like to me.

[Yosarian2]

Why do you assume so readily that he's a communist? I think there's a high chance of him being an islamist, too.

Claiming seer if you're not the seer in an open role game is suicide, and the only logical reason to do it if if you're willing to give up your life in order to out the cop. An Islamist would have no reason to get himself killed just to out the seer, as the seer can only find communists and is therfore no threat to the Islamists. Therefore, I think that Lying Brian is either telling the truth, or else he's a communist. I'd give it about 50/50 odds of going either way at this point, but if I had to guess, I'd guess he's telling the truth.

Either way, town wins when he's lynched. I can't see a cop playing like LyingBrian has been, very recklessly and such.

Eh...cops often look kind of scummy, in my experence; they tend to be more bold and agressive with less logical reason to be then townies, even without a guilty investigation. Heh..I've gotten myself bandwagoned nearly every time I've been a cop for reasons like that. So no, I'm not willing to rule out the possibility that he might be telling the truth. I'm not 100% convinced, but I'm not willing to risk lynching him without a counterclaim.

I also find it very suspicious that you want the Seer to claim. Run this scenario through your head: Seer claims. LyingBrian dies. Seer dies during the night (as the communists can't let him live in this setup). That leaves town without our trump card. And YOU seem to want the seer to claim, just so you are satisfied that LB is not him.

(shrug) If we lynch a communist today, then the seer actually not all that powerful a role after that; the odds of the seer finding the last communist before the seer dies or the communist gets lynched or the game ends from some other reason is pretty small, I think. However, the seer getting lynched today would almost certanly cause the town to lose the game.

Considering that we lost two townies already, we're almost set even among the three groups. There's a very high chance he's from the scum groups. Again, I am certain he's not town, and DEFINITELY not the Seer. You were convinced, it seemed, that he was scum, but all of a sudden he calls Seer and you're now unwilling to touch him? That's a very suspicious reversal.

I was pretty suspicious of him, yeah. And yeah, I'm unwilling to lynch someone who claims seer in an open role game where we know there's a seer.

[Thestatusquo]

Nai. Please tell me where I said you were town? Unless you're name somehow magically changed from Nai to kingpin, then I never did. Your attempt to poison the well is noted, however.

[Nai]

Y'know what, this is taking too long, especially with how he's acted. And since there doesn't seem to be any other way to get this across:

I'm claiming to be the actual President/Seer. After reading through the game after being inactive last game day, I noticed that LyingBrian seemed very suspicious, for the reasons I've stated today. I investigated him, and got a guilty result. LyingBrian is not only a communist, but has managed to out the REAL seer. Congratulations.

[Kelly Chen]

Vote Count

3 - LyingBrian (Nai, sprontalic, germy)
1 - Thestatusquo (LyingBrian)
1 - friday-13th (Zindaras)
1 - Nai (Thestatusquo)

not voting: friday-13th, Lucresia, KingPin, Yosarian2

With 10 alive it is 6 to lynch!

Deadline Jan 1. You need a majority.

[Thestatusquo]

Hm.... I'm going to go re read now.

[Nai]

Please do. Note how I've been playing. Note how LyingBrian has been playing. This should be REALLY obvious, and also shouldn't have required me to claim.

[Thestatusquo]

Forgot to mention

unvote nai

Is anyone else in favor of leaving them both alive till one shows up dead, then we can be sure the one we're lynching is scum, and it will give disinsentive to kill the real one? I'm seriously considering throwing my vote back to germy.

[Nai]

Why the hell would you do that? You KNOW there is only one seer in this game. There is no reason in hell a townie should claim a role that isn't theirs. I don't know what Shadowlurker was playing at, but LyingBrian claimed, I was fighting that claim, and then counterclaimed. Why would you leave us BOTH alive?

See, if you leave us both alive, we enter a WIFOM situation. If I end up dead, you kill LyingBrian. But, because of that, they don't kill me, so the town lynches me, wasting a lynch. Then it's too late for you. You would have a small chance of hitting a communist today. If you don't, they'll probably hit a townie, then you'll lynch me (a pro-town role), they kill another townie/islamist, and the town is royally screwed.

There is NO reason to leave us BOTH alive. Kill one of us. I recommend him, because his playing this game doesn't fit, in the least, the role he's claiming. Especially the person he supposedly checked on.

[Yosarian2]

...

Well, crap.

Forgot to mention

unvote nai

Is anyone else in favor of leaving them both alive till one shows up dead, then we can be sure the one we're lynching is scum, and it will give disinsentive to kill the real one? I'm seriously considering throwing my vote back to germy.

Not a bad idea, but I think it's pretty obveous that Lying Brian is the scum here. Not only has he been looking more suspicious all game, but I can't imagine Nai doing this if he was scum; he's have no reason to, he'd be better off just killing LB at night if LB really was the seer.

Gunny is still a good suspect; he was defending lying brian pretty hard until LB claimed. However, I think it's pretty clear LB is scum, and we have to lynch scum today.

vote:lying brian

[Lucresia]

I have been rather sick...I will have to reread a lot..I'll make sure I post today..sick or not. sorry

[sprontalic]

do you always let other people think for you...

umm...excuse me, what?

just b/c i used the same argument against ShadowLurker, and he turned up town, does NOT make it an invalid argument... unfortunately, some player will always ACT scummy, despite their role...

I was referring to your "using profanities" argument. Although it's not good gamesmanship, it's not exactly a scumtell either.

Not a bad idea, but I think it's pretty obveous that Lying Brian is the scum here. Not only has he been looking more suspicious all game, but I can't imagine Nai doing this if he was scum; he's have no reason to, he'd be better off just killing LB at night if LB really was the seer.

under any other circumstance I would agree, but seriously germy has been so strongly connected to lyingbrian that if lyingbrian were scum, germy would have to be his teammate, if not a scum that's trying to buddy up. I'm quite convinced that lyingbrian is scum too but with this alternative, we may not have to risk killing the seer on the off chance that lyingbrian isn't actually lying.

As such:

unvote
vote: Germy

[Lucresia]

I don't have time to look back and see everyone that posted what for my quotes...It's taken me since I got home from work ( 6:30 est) to read this thread because of how sick I feel. I had to keep pasting quotes into notepad to comment later...

I will be voting you if you don't tell us who you think is suspicious and who you think is town, in a nice list. There's absolutely no reason not to if you're town, so it's a very suspicious play.

-If you're town, we lynch you, but we know your opinions. We can use the opinions of a confirmed town player for our lynch tomorrow.

-If you're scum, we lynch you, we know your opinions. We can use them to catch other scum tomorrow.

If you die overnight, we also get the advantages presented here.

I absolutely disagree with this. If he's scum and ends up getting killed he could make a fake list to throw us off that actually has mafia on it...Then again like almost any argument...it could go either way. He could actually have posted about townies in hopes of killing them off and then we'd have a clear list. As either thing could happen...I wouldnt say this is a great basis to go on. I think if you have your opinions COMPLETELY in the open...in the form of a list of everyone that is..that mafia members will realize that their playing still is either working or not working and will make appropraite changes on how they conduct themselves.

Wow you're dumb. Really really dumb. Your job is to find scum, if what I did is done on both town and scum, then how the ... is it a reason to vote?

I don't understand in such a game where there are two scum groups..in a mini...why on earth could you think we could afford to lose a townie? Just because that is your playing style? THAT is why it is a scumtell in THIS SPECIFIC situation.

I disagree. If we don't lynch a bad guy today, we're in very deep trouble; out only real hope would be for a cross-kill, because if we lynch a pro-town person today and another dies tonight, the town would have next to no chance of winning; the town's chances of winning a 3 town, 2 communist, 3 islamist game would be very small. So if a seer counter-claim today would let us know LB is lying scum and get us a right lynch today, it'd defiantly be worth it. And on the other hand, if LB is the seer, then lynching him would be an unmitigated disaster for the town. I'm not willing to take that risk at this point of the game.

And if there is a counterclaim, and we believe it then we have only 1 confirmed mafia and lose our seer at night. Then we go back to the same situation and have nothing else to go on. 4 good 4 bad and NO information. (Unfortunately..we have a counterclaim so it appears this situation has gotten VERY complicated)

Why the hell would you do that? You KNOW there is only one seer in this game.

There is no reason in hell a townie should claim a role that isn't theirs.

I don't know what Shadowlurker was playing at, but LyingBrian claimed, I was fighting that claim, and then counterclaimed. Why would you leave us BOTH alive?

(bolded important)There's no reason for a townie to claim a role that isnt there's? Even to protect the seer? Perhaps....and this is a thought that again is only thought because its so hard to base anything off of anything in this game..PERHAPS, Lyingbrian was doing just that..lying. Maybe he is a townie that claimed seer so that he doesnt get lynched tonight and instead the REAL seer is able to make 1 more investigation before he is killed. JUST a possibility..but DEFINITELY something I am considering. Any thoughts on this?

I hope this all made sense and will try to keep up with this game no matter how sick I feel

[Lucresia]

corection to last paragraph. It should read "so he doesn't get lynched

today

AND INSTEAD the REAL seer is able to make 1 more investigation during that night before he was killed the next night." etc

[germy]

Wow, quite a bit has occured since my last post.

At this point the vote should most likely be between LyingBrian and Nai. One of the two

we know for sure

is lying, and my bet (as my vote indicates) is on LyingBrian.

I don't care if you are one of the players voting for me - the fact that someone is actively placing a vote on someone besides LyingBrian or Nai is suspicious.

Although it's possible both are town, and one of them is lying in an attempt to save the "real" Seer, I do not find this likely.

My reason for voting, clarified

I showed somewhat of a reversal with LyingBrian, yes. However my logic, even if you do not agree with it, has been consistent.

The moment

LyingBrian resorted to the defense that I have been hounding Shadowlurker and Thestatusquo for, I voted for him. In addition, his claim didn't even make sense. Cadre over Thestatusquo? What? The fact that other players are supporting the idea that the real Seer should claim are immediately moved up my suspicion list.

If I had posted earlier, I would have urged the real Seer to

not

claim. At least, not for a while yet. Sorry, Nai.

Why it would be beneficial for a scum player to claim Seer at this point:

If LyingBrian is scum: whether Communist or Islamist, he had nothing to lose, and much to gain.

He was going to be lynched

, correct? Anything less than a Seer claim would not have changed the result. By claiming Seer, he has increased his chances of not being lynched.

If he is Communist: by outing the Seer, the Communists now know exactly who to kill. The counterclaimer is either lynched or dies during the Night.

If he is Islamist: by outing the Seer, it increases the chances of Islamist survival during the Night. The Communists will kill the Seer and not accidentally hit one of them.

The crux: LyingBrian was going to be lynched anyway. He might as well claim Seer and see if the real Seer claims. Whatever scum he might be, and even if he is still lynched, his team still benefits.

[Thestatusquo]

Forgot to mention

unvote nai

Is anyone else in favor of leaving them both alive till one shows up dead, then we can be sure the one we're lynching is scum, and it will give disinsentive to kill the real one? I'm seriously considering throwing my vote back to germy.

There is reasoning behind voting for someone else that you have ignored. Just saying you find them suspicious does not make that reasoning go away.

[Zindaras]

Why would you assume he's the Seer? Has he played like a cop? I've never known a cop to attract a lot of attention to himself, because he doesn't want the scum to go after him. LyingBrian has been an outright player in this game, and has made a lot of noise and waves. That doesn't sound like a cop to me. Especially the fact that he seemed suspicious of you yesterday, but then and investigated a very low key player. That doesn't sound very cop-like to me.

You've obviously never played with me as Cop.

I totally buy the Cop claim. I should trust my gut more often.

Forgot to mention

unvote nai

Is anyone else in favor of leaving them both alive till one shows up dead, then we can be sure the one we're lynching is scum, and it will give disinsentive to kill the real one? I'm seriously considering throwing my vote back to germy.

Is there really any doubt about which one is scum?

I absolutely disagree with this. If he's scum and ends up getting killed he could make a fake list to throw us off that actually has mafia on it...Then again like almost any argument...it could go either way. He could actually have posted about townies in hopes of killing them off and then we'd have a clear list. As either thing could happen...I wouldnt say this is a great basis to go on.

The list makes it difficult for the Mafiate to maneuver. They have to give their opinions on all players, which means they have to say stuff about people they may have wanted to get lynched later. Fake lists and stuff are easily analyzed.

I think if you have your opinions COMPLETELY in the open...in the form of a list of everyone that is..that mafia members will realize that their playing still is either working or not working and will make appropraite changes on how they conduct themselves.

If someone changes their behaviour, I'd definitely look out for them.

(bolded important)There's no reason for a townie to claim a role that isnt there's? Even to protect the seer? Perhaps....and this is a thought that again is only thought because its so hard to base anything off of anything in this game..PERHAPS, Lyingbrian was doing just that..lying. Maybe he is a townie that claimed seer so that he doesnt get lynched tonight and instead the REAL seer is able to make 1 more investigation before he is killed. JUST a possibility..but DEFINITELY something I am considering. Any thoughts on this?

And then we arrive at a few questions:
1) Do you really think LyingBrian is town?
2) Do you really think it's town behaviour to claim Cop, in a game without docs?
3) Do you really think lying is town behaviour?

I hope this all made sense and will try to keep up with this game no matter how sick I feel

*thumbs up*

Personally, I have absolutely zero doubt that Nai is the Seer and LyingBrian's a commie. Not only is his claim more believable, I actually had Nai tagged as Seer.

I don't think there's any good logic behind leaving scum alive, so

Unvote, Vote: LyingBrian