Open 482: Popcorn Mafia {Game Over}

[ChannelDelibird]

I think wagoners are more likely scum. Explanation complete.

I don't think getting into a long theory debate about this is likely to be helpful but this is really far too broad to be true.

[HadMatter]

I didn't say it was fact. I said it's what I think. It's true that I think it's true. Not saying it is true.

What I say I saw, I saw. I know my rights! I know the law!

[Cherry Nog]

And I've only played with CDB once, when he shot me n1 in my first game.

I don't recognise you - are you on a new account?

I'm N in a hydra with Cheery Dog. (The game I'm talking about with micro 17 or 18 or something.)

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh, that would explain that then.

[Cherry Nog]

I think wagoners are more likely scum. Explanation complete.

I disagree with this, especially during early game/RVS.

[HadMatter]

You disagree that I think that? Or you think the opposite?

[mcqueen]

I didn't say it was fact. I said it's what I think. It's true that I think it's true. Not saying it is true.

What I say I saw, I saw. I know my rights! I know the law!

Scum.

VOTE: HadMatter

[Juke]

mcqueen's probably town.

[Limo]

Why's that?

[Juke]

He voted someone, and he doesn't really seem to have knowledge of the setup. If he were scum, he would definitely have that knowledge.

[Limo]

CDB brought up a point on keeping pseudo-votes, on which the mod said he could keep a VC if we so desired.

[Juke]

The point about lack of knowledge on the setup still stands.

[Limo]

Is your point of his lack of knowledge predicated on the vote?

[Juke]

It made me consider it. It was initially due to the vote, but I continued to look after I saw that and decided that his lack of knowledge of the setup was a towntell.

What's your opinion on it?

[Bumfuzzled]

For those who don’t know, we’re a hydra of Regfan and Awestfie. I got to speak to Awestfie a bit after getting a role PM but haven’t had a chance to talk with her since the game actually started so no real idea where she is reads wise or whether or not she agrees with me on mine so hopefully we can carve some time out tonight to get to that. The one thing we did talk about though is tactics, here’s a summary of what we decided upon:

This game being nightless means that we can win this with just a few strong town-reads; while it may take 4 strong town-reads to instantly win it with every scum that dies the number reduces and we attain free mslynches so there’s a good chance the game will end up that if we have 2-3 agreed upon strong town reads we’ll win. It also means that scum are going to have to fabricate reasoning to town-read their partners since bussing is near-suicidal in nightless games which means we'll likely be able to catch scum in groups ie. If we nail one scum we'll be able to look through their reads and reasoning and probably find another one or two so we can go 1-2-3. So

rather than just solely focusing on scum reads I’d prefer if people made clear what their strong town-reads are and provide reasoning behind them

– the more strong town reads we all agree upon the better position we’re in and running us through your thought process behind getting reads helps get us a stronger read on you (And there’s no reason to withhold anything re: Reads and reasoning in this setup since there’s no harm in stating them and a lot of potential gain).

---

I have a few weakish town-reads at the moment and no real scum reads I'd bank on yet but want to talk over a few things with Awestfie.

I think HatMadder focus on the number and the win condition in Post 9 is a slight town-tell. I think scum would be less likely to be focusing on that at this point and think they'd have done it through PM rather than out in the thread. Also think his 'conditional PM' suggestion in Post 11 while flawed due to the the deadlines not being something as minimal as 48 hours but rather being three weeks is him genuinely trying to help.

Cherry Nogs reasoning behind who they'd shoot early-game is actually really sound (Shooting competent players is somewhat optimal in that worst case it's a strong player with a gun) and comes across as a weakish town-tell. Want his reads on things that are unrelated to setup tactics / strategy though.

Jukes consideration and re-consideration on her town-read on Limo in Post 36 is a slight town-tell too. The fact that she was willing to actually analyze her own town-read without anyone prompting her about the reasoning shows genuine scumhunting. I can kind of follow her reasoning behind the read / retraction of it too. Not following her reasoning on her Mcqueen town-read in Post 61, I don't see any lack of knowledge shown by Mcqueen at all (I actually have a scummish read on him but I think it's somewhat gut based and I try not to trust my gut since it's wrong more than not, if he posts more I should be able to get a stronger read).

[Juke]

wut

[Limo]

Had his vote been before CDB's proposal, I would have agreed with you. His beginning question could be inferred as instinctively town, but 1) it would not be hard to fake and 2) it's a possibility that he could have conveyed the same thoughts in the QT with a follow-up post here. That means it's a null tell in and of itself.

[Limo]

BFZD, I agree with your read on Juke.

Just putting this out there, mcqueen appears to have a playstyle of a somewhat "full steam ahead" bravado. That effectively reduces my read on him to null.

[Juke]

@Bum:

/confirm

Wtf kind of Setup is this.

This is what I was talking about with the lack of knowledge. This was after the game had started, and the Mafia had already chosen who to give a gun to. I don't see mcqueen saying this as scum who had already chosen a target.

@Limo: I have past experience with mcqueen. I kinda doubt he would do that as scum, especially since I don't think he's played in awhile.

[Bumfuzzled]

Just putting this out there, mcqueen appears to have a playstyle of a somewhat "full steam ahead" bravado. That effectively reduces my read on him to null.

I think I've played with him when he's been town and scum, sad thing is it was ages ago and I don't remember the games that well. I'll probably end up going through his meta sometime in the next few days and see if I can remember if he has any strong tells but I really do need him to post a lot more to get a good feel either way.

Pedit: Juke, I don't really see that as 'lack of knowledge about the setup' more-so just stating that it's a weird setup which I think he'd state regardless of alignment.

[Juke]

If that's the case, then I don't really see him saying it here over saying it in the scum QT.

Which is a way worse tell than what I originally thought, but I refuse to be wrong twice.

[Cherry Nog]

You disagree that I think that? Or you think the opposite?

I think you know what I mean, although I do see that my response can be confusing if you're being pedantic.

[Cherry Nog]

He voted someone, and he doesn't really seem to have knowledge of the setup. If he were scum, he would definitely have that knowledge.

This is really weak.

[Cherry Nog]

@Bum:

/confirm

Wtf kind of Setup is this.

This is what I was talking about with the lack of knowledge. This was after the game had started, and the Mafia had already chosen who to give a gun to. I don't see mcqueen saying this as scum who had already chosen a target.

@Limo: I have past experience with mcqueen. I kinda doubt he would do that as scum, especially since I don't think he's played in awhile.

Everyone had to confirm by PM before the game started, so him trying to confirm in-thread kinds of points towards that post being fake.

[Cherry Nog]

Cherry Nogs reasoning behind who they'd shoot early-game is actually really sound (Shooting competent players is somewhat optimal in that worst case it's a strong player with a gun) and comes across as a weakish town-tell. Want his reads on things that are unrelated to setup tactics / strategy though.

You're just saying that because I called you a strong player.