Royal Family Mafia - Game Over!

[the silent speaker]

Luckay, care to explain why you think I'm suspicious?

[HackerHuck]

I'm not sure I understand why Ether and LuckayLuck are claiming others to be town so early in the game.

I'm what?

Well, I wish I had a decent answer for this one. I've reread a couple of times now and I don't know what the hell I was talking about. I only see Luckay making such claims.

My apologies to the songstress

[LuckayLuck]

But I do agree that Luckay's strategy seems--well, I'm not certain what it actually is and how far in the game he intends to go by it, so it's hard to say. Luckay, I too would like to read a few finished games where you made such predictions.

Lucky's strategy:
1. Make possibly controversial, but often correct (imo) predictions that may or may not go against the crowd.
2. Strongly believe in these predictions. Call me crazy, but believing strongly in these predictions and then looking at what your target does in response is an extreme tell.


I don't have any games on this site yet, but all the current games I have will follow this strategy. Even the newbie game. The newbie game is the one currently furthest through but not over yet, is it kosher to link it?

[Jack]

I'm here but I have to reread before voting.

1. Make possibly controversial, but often correct (imo) predictions that may or may not go against the crowd.
2. Strongly believe in these predictions. Call me crazy, but believing strongly in these predictions and then looking at what your target does in response is an extreme tell.

Doesn't this make you a little close minded towards other predictions? Why not keep an open mind?

[LuckayLuck]

In another game, Seol just grilled me about this. I'm going to just post it word for word here because it probably needs explanation. Includes a game too!


-------------------------

Jeez. You are, if nothing else, thorough.

Please provide links to games where you used this "strategy" on other forums.

I'm so hesitant to do this because I'm a nutjob there. Okay fine, here too. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showf ... page=&vc=1
Reading through day1 should be enough to get to know my general style. No, I don't implement this specific "strategy" but I implement the same general concepts. Villager tells, an excel spreadsheet of doom, crazy theories. The background of the forum which I come from is a lot more casual from this, one-day-day/nights, everyone pretty much knows each other, etc. If it's any consolation, I seriously have a very good townie/mafia list throughout.

Are you saying that the comment was

intended

to be read as inflammatory and unjustified? Did you have any reasons to pick myself and GC? If so, what were they?

If I say that somebody has a townie tell (or, townie feeling, townie-ish, whatever), I am 100% serious. In my mind, it is justified...I mostly call them townie tells because some of them are the psychological quirks which townies tend to do (you would call this WIFOM, I use WIFOM a lot, don't diss WIFOM). Some of them are more solid evidence such as timing of responses and etc.

Okay, I'll reveal the reasons why I picked you and GC.

Initially, Seol, I picked you because you made a super-awesome accurate post. It's not just length either, it's...style, Type of response. You will no doubt try to pull off the same type of post as a wolf now that I know you slightly better and have seen more of your posting style, but I still believe you to be the #1 villager here as of RIGHT NOW. What really rang the townie alarm, however, was:

Luckay, I've got a newsflash for you. You're not Pooky.

Are you playing to win, or to dick around?

A mafia just can't possibly make THIS post 30 minutes after my crazy proposal of masonry. It's near impossible. This is my townie tell on you, Seol. As I said, I'm 95% sure you're a townie after that little bit.

I now "TRUST" and "FOLLOW" what you say exactly - because you've demosntrated the almighty townie tell. Could I have gotten the tell and had it strengthen even more now by first offering "masonry" and then by stating "95% townie" and such? No way! And you've followed that up with:

Are you playing to win?

Yes, I'm playing to win.
And I believe I've nailed you down as a townie. If you are indeed a townie, as I'm 95% sure of now, you should recognize that this is valuable information that can only be good.

Except

there's no information!

Blind trust is

dangerous

, informed trust is fine but I don't see any evidence of that. I don't want you to trust

anyone

without reason, including myself.

just 20 minutes after my retort. Seol, you're like 99% villager. And in my world, if I don't say 100%, it means I'm not using BLIND TRUST. I have turned around and lynched / led lynches for those who I have trusted as near-masons in other games. I have turned around and mason-ed with those who I have led lynches for. My style is very flexible, it provides the type of tells that I can see as useful whereas others might not, most of these tells if I presented them would get smacked down with the WIFOM argument...but you know what? WIFOM is legit evidence townies / mafia.

Seol, think of how important the input of a confirmed villager (via seer, for example) is. Townies can finally take the villager's word as gospel and argue directly with him about it with no nagging feeling in their mind "hmm...but...but...maybe he's mafia." Even those one sees as mostly townie...it can never come close to seeing someone as a confirmed townie or as a mason. I manage to do that, I frame it in my mind that someone I have a townie tell on IS a confirmed townie or a mason and treat them as such. A silly crazy exercise? No, it really helps me see their true intentions, gets you thinking on their level unlike that of just reading what they have to say. Sort of hard to explain.

The best thing is, if my mason seems strange at all, and this is something that can only really be seen from really treating your target as a mason and then sensing that slight disturbance...you have the best mafia tell of all time. Because your mason is supposed to be the best villager in the game.



Just...you'll have to recognize that I have a slightly different playstyle. Am I undermining the town? No, I help the town. Sometimes, I feel like a defense attorney for those about to get lynched. More often than not, and it's gotten a lot better recently, I've managed to stop townies from getting lynched / townies did get lynched but I did call it correctly and defended them. Am I ACTIVELY trying to generate reactions from saying "Controversial Target X is a townie"? This is secondary, really...as I've suggested, if this entire concept seems like pure crazy-talk, interpret my actions thus far as:

"I feel that Seol and Green Crayons are leaning townie."

Oh, I missed the reasons for why GC is townie. GC is townie because we had an argument over punctuation. We worked it out. Most importantly, however, GC has sifted one by one across all players who post something of worth. Votes all over the place. In some cases, this is a wolf tell, but in this particular context / voting style it is a townie tell.


Seol, someday...someday, we'll be masons.

[LuckayLuck]

Silent Speaker,

So... not random, then. Unvote: Ether, vote: Canucklehead.

This looks mafia-ish.


Also, you were the first vote on Ether, who at the time of my suspicion, had the highest bandwagon. The "first day first wave mafia bandwagon" theorem dictates that there is usually exactly one mafia on the first 4-vote wagon on day1, and the 4th vote is not a mafia. IH is townie, and Ether is townie, thus: it's either you or Bogre.

FOS: Bogre

P.S. I'm a nut, but not crazy

[the silent speaker]

I thought I explained that. He said it was a random vote and then gave a nonrandom reason why he picked that person -- i.e. that it was not a random vote. The contradiction, not the nonrandomness per se, was what drew my vote.

[IH]

LL, ;_; I really don't want to copy and paste my post from that response....

if anyone wants to see it I'll post it, but I don't like taking things from other games and putting it here.

Also LL, those responses stand from that game into here.

[Ether]

Canuckle, that looked more like cryptic platitude than something I could understand. Are there individuals you have an opinion on?

Luckay, on Day 1 of that game was a post where you Excel'd everyone and what you thought of them. Here were your towniest at that point, and what they turned out to be.

Chuckleslovakian: scum
Durron597: town
Nicholasp27: scum
OurHouse: town
Sighing: town
Xorbie: technically neutral, but if he won, the town and scum had to flip a coin for the win
Zurvan: town

There were 28 players in total, 8 of whom were scum and 2 of whom were neutrals working in cahoots. 2 of the scum were odd cases--one could be switched to town when the neutrals felt like it and the other started out believing it was town--so let's ignore those and the neutrals and just say that the proportions were 6 scum in 24 people. One fourth.

Luckay, one third of the people on your town list were scum.

[LuckayLuck]

Canuckle, that looked more like cryptic platitude than something I could understand. Are there individuals you have an opinion on?

Luckay, on Day 1 of that game was a post where you Excel'd everyone and what you thought of them. Here were your towniest at that point, and what they turned out to be.

Chuckleslovakian: scum
Durron597: town
Nicholasp27: scum
OurHouse: town
Sighing: town
Xorbie: technically neutral, but if he won, the town and scum had to flip a coin for the win
Zurvan: town

There were 28 players in total, 8 of whom were scum and 2 of whom were neutrals working in cahoots. 2 of the scum were odd cases--one could be switched to town when the neutrals felt like it and the other started out believing it was town--so let's ignore those and the neutrals and just say that the proportions were 6 scum in 24 people. One fourth.

Luckay, one third of the people on your town list were scum.

The excel spreadsheet switcheroos over time~!

[Canucklehead17]

Canuckle, that looked more like cryptic platitude than something I could understand. Are there individuals you have an opinion on?

Luckay, on Day 1 of that game was a post where you Excel'd everyone and what you thought of them. Here were your towniest at that point, and what they turned out to be.

Chuckleslovakian: scum
Durron597: town
Nicholasp27: scum
OurHouse: town
Sighing: town
Xorbie: technically neutral, but if he won, the town and scum had to flip a coin for the win
Zurvan: town

There were 28 players in total, 8 of whom were scum and 2 of whom were neutrals working in cahoots. 2 of the scum were odd cases--one could be switched to town when the neutrals felt like it and the other started out believing it was town--so let's ignore those and the neutrals and just say that the proportions were 6 scum in 24 people. One fourth.

Luckay, one third of the people on your town list were scum.

I've re-read what I posted and it was kind've vague. Here's what I meant.

Let's say, hypothetically speaking, that IH was scum. So he decides in order to REALLY act like a townie, he should employ this technique known as fishing. So he starts fishing, throwing suspicion everywhere EXCEPT to him.

Another point would be that we spend all this time looking for a reaction, and anyone who gives any kind of reaction gets hammered, while the mafia sits back, takes it easy, and gets off free.

As far as opinions on any players, I have to say LL confuses the living daylights out of me. He(or she, sorry I don't remember LL) always has some kind of unfounded suspicion, and it takes a full length editorial to explain.

Another player I have a bit of an opinion on is IH. Chiefly, he is the man 'fisherman' of the bunch. He seems to be ok though, just tries to make things a bit too technical.

I wish the forum hadn't gone down so much, it's hard to make accurate judgments with these week long breaks in between posts, y'know?

[IH]

Canuckle, I continue to hear you talk of me fishing. Would you do me a favor? Give me your definition of fishing, and examples of me doing it.

If you could do that, that'd be grrrreeeeaaaaat (walks off with red stapler)

[Canucklehead17]

I'd be most happy to oblige.

My definition of fishing, as I understand it the way it's been used and explained on here(it's a new concept to me actually) is that you throw out a statement that is accusing in tone, and then wait to see my reaction. If the reaction is tense and harsh, you judge me as being defensive, and direct suspicions towards me or whoever you are fishing for right then. (BTW, if my definition of fishing is wrong, by all means correct me, because it is a new concept)

For instance, when I joined the "Ether-wagon", you said "Canuckle, welcome to the Ether bandwagon?". After hearing the comments afterwards, it seemed to me like you were trying to gain a reaction. The question(to me) seemed to say "That seems awful scummy that you'd simply follow the crowd". Which is kind've hypocritical, considering several others were jumping on the bandwagon as well.

But you're not the only one. SS was doing it a good bit as well. Sorry if I used you as an example TOO much.

[IH]

Well, that's actually described the point of the game Canuckle. You look for over reactions and scuminess. I truly don't see how that sort of fishing is suspicious in the least.

[Canucklehead17]

Oh I understand that. I just don't see how it's helping the town. We're confusing ourselves pretty early here, and I think the chief cause is because of the paranoia of people 'fishing'.

And I never said YOU were suspicious. In fact, if you read three or four posts above, I said that you seemed ok.

[LuckayLuck]

Just to let you guys know, I think that Canucklehead is a townie.
...
that is all.

[IH]

Oh I understand that. I just don't see how it's helping the town. We're confusing ourselves pretty early here, and I think the chief cause is because of the paranoia of people 'fishing'.

And I never said YOU were suspicious. In fact, if you read three or four posts above, I said that you seemed ok.

Oh, I know you 'cleared me' but I was wondering why I was suspicious to you in the first place.

[Mariyta]

Um, why are we "clearing" unconfirmeds the first day? All this talk so far really has no point other than to distract and confuse people.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fishing is subtly trying to get information as to the role of a certain player and by role I don't mean alignment, I mean doc, cop, townie. It's something mafia do.

Also, we need a bandwagon.

[Save The Dragons]

I thought I explained that. He said it was a random vote and then gave a nonrandom reason why he picked that person -- i.e. that it was not a random vote. The contradiction, not the nonrandomness per se, was what drew my vote.

And so your first conclusion from this was, "He's a lying scumbag! Kill him!?"

[the silent speaker]

You have a better conclusion from it? I'm not saying it's the end-all of suspicion, but for day 1 it's surely better than nothing.

[Fritzler]

Canuckle, that looked more like cryptic platitude than something I could understand. Are there individuals you have an opinion on?

Luckay, on Day 1 of that game was a post where you Excel'd everyone and what you thought of them. Here were your towniest at that point, and what they turned out to be.

Chuckleslovakian: scum
Durron597: town
Nicholasp27: scum
OurHouse: town
Sighing: town
Xorbie: technically neutral, but if he won, the town and scum had to flip a coin for the win
Zurvan: town

There were 28 players in total, 8 of whom were scum and 2 of whom were neutrals working in cahoots. 2 of the scum were odd cases--one could be switched to town when the neutrals felt like it and the other started out believing it was town--so let's ignore those and the neutrals and just say that the proportions were 6 scum in 24 people. One fourth.

Luckay, one third of the people on your town list were scum.

O-SNAP

ether with the research

[Canucklehead17]

Oh I understand that. I just don't see how it's helping the town. We're confusing ourselves pretty early here, and I think the chief cause is because of the paranoia of people 'fishing'.

And I never said YOU were suspicious. In fact, if you read three or four posts above, I said that you seemed ok.

Oh, I know you 'cleared me' but I was wondering why I was suspicious to you in the first place.

I don't remember saying I was ever suspicious of you...

[IH]

First off, I would like to apologize to Canuckle for misreading his posts. = / I took this post

I'd be most happy to oblige.

My definition of fishing, as I understand it the way it's been used and explained on here(it's a new concept to me actually) is that you throw out a statement that is accusing in tone, and then wait to see my reaction. If the reaction is tense and harsh, you judge me as being defensive, and direct suspicions towards me or whoever you are fishing for right then. (BTW, if my definition of fishing is wrong, by all means correct me, because it is a new concept)

For instance, when I joined the "Ether-wagon", you said "Canuckle, welcome to the Ether bandwagon?". After hearing the comments afterwards, it seemed to me like you were trying to gain a reaction. The question(to me) seemed to say "That seems awful scummy that you'd simply follow the crowd". Which is kind've hypocritical, considering several others were jumping on the bandwagon as well.

But you're not the only one. SS was doing it a good bit as well. Sorry if I used you as an example TOO much.

that you thought I was suspicious.

And so your first conclusion from this was, "He's a lying scumbag! Kill him!?"

Lynch All Liars?

Whoa! CES appears.

Hmm, I'm not sure why I thought you were going after me Canuckle. Of course, Vitamin R (who I haven't heard from lately) did.

Based off of LL's current posts and my revelations from them, he really doesn't have real information.

but out of all the hooplah surrounding post 59

I will give you 2 of the 3 reasons why it is ideal to assume he is town:

1) Because I think he is town. (You think he's town too.)
2) Because assuming that he's town means that I don't have to worry about him being a mafia. (Trust me, I know this comment looks incredibly stupid, but it's very nice having somebody that you can 100% trust as townie, either while mistaken or not)
3) ???? (I don't want to reveal this one.)

I believe that Thok was the most reasonable.

I got the impression that LuckayLuck's third reason was based off of a newbie protown tell that he uses. (I could be wrong, of course.) I can't assess LL's particular tell, since I don't know what it is, but I do believe that there is a "typical protown newbie behavior", and what little I've seen of Canuckle's play fits in with that.

Obviously, further posts by Canuckle will allow us to better assess his protownness or scumminess.

Also, Luckay, I would like to ask you a question.

Fritzler, if Canucklehead is a scum in this game, then he is a scum PRODIGY. I am 95% sure Canucklehead is townie.

How is he a scum prodigy? I don't think this was ever asked, so I would like to ask.

Also, on a reread of Canuckle's posts, unless I'm going with lynch all liars, I'm going to

unvote, vote:LuckayLuck

With his other townie "confirmeds" he has not made as much effort or .... well effort to make sure that others KNOW as much, and to throw him in a better light, like to give him credibility I don't think he ever explained. The 95% scum prodigy thing. Oh, and there was this.

Just to let you guys know, I think that Canucklehead is a townie.
...
that is all.

and I'm not sure it was for any reason. I don't believe Canuckle has been in danger of being lynched, so I don't think it was for any good reason. Why do I say that?

I'm going to also assume that Ether is town now.
Eventually, with enough assumptions of townies, I will be able to death star a mafia.
You may or may not buy into my methods, but it doesn't really matter to any of us unless Canuckle or Ether are in danger of being lynched. At that point in time, I will rain down divine righteous blades of fury at the mafia.

I take this to mean that he probably won't try to defend them unless they are in danger of being lynched. What was the meaning of that post double L?

[Canucklehead17]

LL, your posts do seem VERY strange most of the time. You're so...mysterious with your posting and logic that it's hard for people to believe you, or even understand you!

It seems to me that you are the only one during this first day who is drawing any ire or suspicion. I do appreciate you sticking up for me, but like I said earlier in the thread, I feel I may be getting set up. Everything you do just makes me raise an eyebrow...I'm sorry.

unvote...vote LuckayLuck