Mini 1404 - Monopoly Mafia - Game Over

[guille2015]

One of the neighborhood probably is scum. I'd bet anything that's true.

There is something really Odd here.

[guille2015]

Jake: What's your opinion on LM and Cheery?

[Jake from State Farm]

why is that? I have never seen an all town neighborhood before so I have no reason to believe one exists in this game.

I'm fine with you thinking it's odd, but you have to explain why you think it's odd.

p.edit - Mhork was pretty town until a certain post he made at the end of day 2, the one i called him out on. After that post he went back to null/slightly scummy.

Cheery is a slight town read but very slight. If mehndi/you are town than I believe cheery is scum though.

[Jake from State Farm]

quick question guile.

when you replaced in did you think your neighborhood was all town or were you under the impression that it's possible there could be scum in there?

[guille2015]

quick question guile.

when you replaced in did you think your neighborhood was all town or were you under the impression that it's possible there could be scum in there?

The first thing I did was read the QT. I found SC to be scummy from the start. I am well aware of scum neighbors. I was neighbored with Ferb in the Phineas and Ferb game. And my scum buddy was neighbored with an SK. That game was a GNR Game so, so the first thing I thought was that the likelihood of one of them being scum was High. Hence why I payed close attention to their play. Because I played close attention to them, I came to the conclusion that they are likely town.

[guille2015]

why is that? I have never seen an all town neighborhood before so I have no reason to believe one exists in this game.

I'm fine with you thinking it's odd, but you have to explain why you think it's odd.

p.edit - Mhork was pretty town until a certain post he made at the end of day 2, the one i called him out on. After that post he went back to null/slightly scummy.

Cheery is a slight town read but very slight. If mehndi/you are town than I believe cheery is scum though.

It's true that all neighborhoods should be taken with a grain of salt. But assuming that every one has at least one scum in them is not the right way to go about it.

Besides. It would seem that this game handed out the cards randomly. No particular proof of that but I find it likely that that is the case. Given that then then its all based on probability. The probability that all 3 of the Neighborhood are town is 23% assuming there are three mafia and one SK in this game. So, it is possible.

Now, the reason I found your statement odd is because of the wording. If you think I am scum, and you are not voting for me. I don't see why you would word it as "One of the neighborhood

probably

is scum.". For some reason that doesn't match your position on the members of the Neighborhood.

Your Voting Medhi.

[SafetyDance]

So by your own process of elimination that leaves you as scum? Doesn't make much sense. I had Mhork down as underlined and bolded pro-town day one too. His progressive play since start day 2 has been bad though. So ignoring outside causes like schizophrenia, there's something up with that. And I don't even have a "scummy" QT to go by, so I'm not sure why you're still giving a die-hard town read.

Mehdi is still the best lynch today, but I'm not going to vote yet, I want to use max time available because if he flips town, shit just got very interesting.

With Jal holding 2 vigs cards there *should* only be two kills. Best case scenario for scum is 5 people D4 and we're at lylo. Mylo if vig doesn't shoot on a town lynch.

Time to pop open a xis/jake iso.

Pedit: Riddle me this batman. 13 players start, 5 are dead. 3 in neighbourhood all alive day 3.

[SafetyDance]

The probability that all 3 of the Neighborhood are town is 23% assuming there are three mafia and one SK in this game. So, it is possible.

If you think I am scum, and you are not voting for me. I don't see why you would word it as "One of the neighborhood

probably

is scum.". For some reason that doesn't match your position on the members of the Neighborhood.

You don't think that a 77% chance quantifies the term "probably"?

[guille2015]

So by your own process of elimination that leaves you as scum? Doesn't make much sense. I had Mhork down as underlined and bolded pro-town day one too. His progressive play since start day 2 has been bad though. So ignoring outside causes like schizophrenia, there's something up with that. And I don't even have a "scummy" QT to go by, so I'm not sure why you're still giving a die-hard town read.

Mehdi is still the best lynch today, but I'm not going to vote yet, I want to use max time available because if he flips town, shit just got very interesting.

With Jal holding 2 vigs cards there *should* only be two kills. Best case scenario for scum is 5 people D4 and we're at lylo. Mylo if vig doesn't shoot on a town lynch.

Time to pop open a xis/jake iso.

Pedit: Riddle me this batman. 13 players start, 5 are dead. 3 in neighbourhood all alive day 3.

"So by your own process of elimination that leaves you as scum? " No. Because I am not assuming that there has to be scum in the neighborhood. If the two with me are town, then I have to conclude that the game started with a 3 town neighborhood.

I also do not have a die hard town read on LM. My die hard read is on Cheerydog. I stated that I am not certain of my Town read of LM due to everything that has been said about the topic. But My position is that he is still a town read, if not Null. So I have to work with that.

[SafetyDance]

This is what I want to happen today: I don't care if you are someone who doesn't want to claim cards. Just claim you got a new card or two. I am intrigued if scum may be holding back on info and potential powers now that more cards have been distributed.

I'd like the claims too because with the amount of information now out on the board, any unclaimed cards now mean that person has more knowledge then the rest of town.

CD has one known card that we don't know even the colour to at least and there's 2 unclaimed cards from last night/day.

@Mod Can you fix the square bracket in #1907 ?

[guille2015]

(fixed)

The probability that all 3 of the Neighborhood are town is 23% assuming there are three mafia and one SK in this game. So, it is possible.

If you think I am scum, and you are not voting for me. I don't see why you would word it as "One of the neighborhood

probably

is scum.". For some reason that doesn't match your position on the members of the Neighborhood.

You don't think that a 77% chance quantifies the term "probably"?

That's not what I mean. The term Probably is used correctly, but I find it odd that someone will say that

I

am scum, phrase it with the word "probably" and still not vote for me.

[SafetyDance]

I see there being scum in your neighbourhood very probable. Especially since none of you are pushing up the daises and have been in the qt since the start (didn't inherit cards). Probable doesn't mean most its the most likely. Raw statistics is now 37.5% of current alive list. Don't you agree that's a better percentage than 3/13?

[SafetyDance]

That's not what I mean. The term Probably is used correctly, but I find it odd that someone will say that

I

am scum

Now, the reason I found your statement odd is because of the wording. If you think I am scum, and you are not voting for me. I don't see why you would word it as "One of the neighborhood

probably

is scum.". For some reason that doesn't match your position on the members of the Neighborhood.

[SafetyDance]

Back tracking:

I have reason to believe Uber may have visited someone last night.

Why did you think this?

[guille2015]

I see there being scum in your neighbourhood very probable. Especially since none of you are pushing up the daises and have been in the qt since the start (didn't inherit cards). Probable doesn't mean most its the most likely. Raw statistics is now 37.5% of current alive list. Don't you agree that's a better percentage than 3/13?

9/13 x 8/13 x 7/13 =~ 23% assuming 3 scum and 1 SK.

[guille2015]

Btw, do you or anyone who wants to voice it think that all the cards were randomly distributed at the start of the game?

[SafetyDance]

I see there being scum in your neighbourhood very probable. Especially since none of you are pushing up the daises and have been in the qt since the start (didn't inherit cards). Probable doesn't mean most its the most likely. Raw statistics is now 37.5% of current alive list. Don't you agree that's a better percentage than 3/13?

9/13 x 8/13 x 7/13 =~ 23% assuming 3 scum and 1 SK.

Advanced maths was never my thing, where does the 8 and 7 fractions come into it and why multiply them?

And Yes, random, which is implied when the mod advertised the game as "swingy".

[Jake from State Farm]

why is it weird I am not voting you? I am more suspicious of mehndi and that is where my vote is.

let me ask you something, why on earth would you just park your vote on me yesterday and not really do any campaigning to get me lynched? How does that benefit town?

if you recall that is very similar thing that I was accusing monkey of doing and he flipped scum

He thinks he has found scum but isn't doing anything to convince people to vote with him

[guille2015]

9/13 first card lands on town.
8/13 second card lands on town.
7/13 third card lands on town

[Jake from State Farm]

reading back guile, this is one of the posts that made me suspicious of him, guile is speaking like he knows for a fact Cheery's card is 1 shot but of course cheery doesn't confirm that. It is a very odd interaction.

One of the things that promoted me to think this way is that Waterworks is also a one shot tracker, Right cheery?

I haven't mentioned the limitations on my actions, nor do I plan to. Need to keep scum guessing at some things to do with my cards.

[Jake from State Farm]

dat quote tag messed up

[guille2015]

I'm on the phone so I'll be quick.

With a vig and a lynch you can take out 2/3 of the neighborhood and likely hit scum if one of us is scum. If you are certain that one of us is scum then this should be the strategy to use. Why waste the lynch on medhi and keep the neighborhood uncertainty for LYlo.

[Jake from State Farm]

Also another thing, in guile's catchup post he pointed to a post that SC made on page 15 and follows it up by saying SC was trying to direct people to vote lurker. But if you actually read pages 15-22 (where SC unvotes lurker) SC doesn't do anything of the sort. I'd almost call it an outright lie.

All SC does is argue about the cards giving power, he never once directs anyone to pit their vote back on him.

[guille2015]

I'm gonna call it a day. See you tomorrow.

[Jake from State Farm]

Back to the neighbor thing.

It's not that weird that the neighbors haven't been killed, neither of the 3 were super town going into night 1. Night 2 mhork/guile looked scummy and cheery was watched (I think that's who safety watched)

The thing that really bugs me about Night 2 is 2 PRs were basically sitting out there with no protection and they kill brawl? Why not Jal? Why not me?

My head hurts every time I think about it. Nobody has given an answer that makes any sense.