NY 160B - Welcome to Castle Zar - TIME FOR FIREWORKS!

[Zar]

The negotiations for the treaty with EpicMafia were tedious. Lord Plessiez was impatient with Count BBMolla's apathy to read his very detailed declaration of peace, and his little motivation to comment or review made Plessiez even more hesitant and resulted in constant revisions of the document. The many unsigned drafts of the treaty are all in possession of the Castle Library.

Day 3, Votecount 2

Zachrulez (3): Ser Arthur Dayne, Konowa, SnowStorm
SnowStorm (2): Zachrulez, DeasVail
Konowa (1): Johhog

Not Voting (3):

Empire, Tammy, Nobody Special

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: Sunday, January 13th, 2013 10:00 PM New York Time. (GMT-5)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2013-01-13 22:00:00)

[Nobody Special]

Bleh. Prod received. I've been reading along, I thought I had posted but I guess not.

Empire is less scummy to me now, for his response to me.

I need to start over (again, again) and look at Zach and more. But that won't be until tonight.

[Johhog]

Remember guys, not a lot of time left. I'm very unconvinced about Zach. I think he's been townish so far, and so was MoI. Sure, there are some associative tells, but that's about it. SnowStorm and Konowa on the other hand...

[Empire]

Remember guys, not a lot of time left. I'm very unconvinced about Zach. I think he's been townish so far, and so was MoI. Sure, there are some associative tells, but that's about it. SnowStorm and Konowa on the other hand...

My understanding is that Zach tends to far prefer being town/hates being scum and he lurks as the latter, but I have to do some more digging later to see if this checks out.

Won't be able to post until late tonight/tomorrow.

[Tammy]

I have too many damn town reads and somethings wrong.

Empire you're right that Zach prefers town and lurks as scum. I remember that from team mafia, and you can see him describing his scum game here http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p4162492

That said, I'm second guessing myself on my earlier moi/zach scum read because of dgb and her town read on the slot. Though I don't really agree with several of her reads so I'm kind of at an impasse. Although Nacho also had a strong townread of the slot, but I also don't really agree with his snowstorm read, so again at am impasse. So, Nacho's scum reads were baby, snowstorm and rofl. Baby he was right on, but rofl wrong. (I'll talk about snow in a minute) And dgb's two scum reads were baby and dv, but I don't put much stock in her reads as I almost don't feel we were reading the same thread/she actually read the game.

As far as snowstorm. One thing, I'm alive and Vi and rofl are dead. I've been trying to make sense of the Vi kill, and really can't. It's not like he did a whole lot in the game. He directed the vig shot, and helped with the mehdi mislynch. But didn't give a whole lot of reads or try to lead the town in any way. (I'm at a big loss how mehdi was reading him as scum because of bop of all things day one but whatever.) The only thing that I can think of that might have lead scum to believe that Vi was a powerrole was:

Partial BoP too in just what he's said so far (such as the amount of time AA being annoying is discussed or not hearing any other scum reads of his).

how much of that do you think is intentional

This is really the only thing in thread I can see Vi being killed over. Other than that, I can only imagine scum killing Vi because they have experience with him or know that he is decent at this game. Damn I kinda lost my train of thought here. But I'm not sure that it would really rule anyone out.

Rofl was really outspoken and was intent on lynching Zach today and really wanted NS gone too through vig. Who else did he think was scum? Oh, DV, who I don't really think is scum. He's not as obvtown as I've seen him before, but there are aspects of his play that read town.

I've never seen him as scum though

AND Nacho gave him a strong town read. I can't remember what game it was that Nacho described why he can read dv, but I know that he's confident in his ability so as I said before I'll add that to my townish reading of him. (The thing is that when people who know how to read me, read me properly I expect other people to accept that, so I'll accept it when others do it especially when they've become confirmed town.) And actually, I don't know why, but Post 610 feels so super genuine. Regardless DV is not someone I'm considering for scum right now unless someone has some really good evidence for it.

Okay so, on the snowstorm front. So, what we're looking at is either a four person scum team or a three person scum team with an SK. That is my best guess. Yeah, I know I suck at balance, but it's 3 for eleven people, so why wouldn't it be four for 15. Right? So we have baby spice + a possible snow storm, right? Here's the thing. The last three times SnowStorm was scum (Johhog you're right SS is a bad abbreviation and our german friends at westeros won't even use it >.>) he killed me early. One time he left me alive mostly because I was tunneling on an innocent, but killed me as soon as I got her mislynched. The next time was reasonable, I was a cop who got a guilty on him night one and got him lynched the next day, and the next time he was partners with kingmaker and tried to kill me night one (even though I was tunneling on town and generally a mess) and killed me the next night.

So, the fact that I'm still alive kind of makes me doubt SnowStorm being scum. But I also know we are not at Westeros and I probably wouldn't be first choice for a kill around here. Post 766 somewhat make me doubt a scum SnowStorm also in conjunction with the he always kills me as scum thing. I don't like that he didn't follow up with it and was waiting to see his response, but I *think* as scum he'd not bother with questioning me out of everyone else he could have questioned at the start of day 3. Like, a big part of me feels like if he were scum he'd just not want to deal with me as he'd know I was town and that I might get more focused on him if he were to try to focus on me. Does that make sense?

I do need to read through Empire's interaction posts with Baby as I just kind of skimmed them, and I need to finish looking over some things...being wrong two days in a row sucks...but I'll be around more from now until deadline though.

[Empire]

Tammy, you're fucking telling me about being wrong...

I'm also getting the feeling that something is hideously wrong here and I'm wrong somewhere with my townreads. I think PoE should help rule out Johhog, Arthur, and you (though Arthur seriously needs to do more at the moment), so I'm starting with that. That leaves me with 5 people...gun to my head, I'd say Zach is the play today. I personally haven't found anything townish about MoI at all and Zach hasn't done much to redeem the slot, especially since he hasn't really been all that involved with this game. The roflcopter kill is pretty glaring to me right now, too. But I have like 0 confidence in my scumhunting ability in this game right now, so whatever.

I'll look more deeply at those 5's individual play tomorrow (later today since it's 2 AM here, I guess). What do you think of SnowStorm's play on its own here though, putting aside the kill speculation? (Talk to me like we're hydra'ing in Open 463 again.)

[Empire]

Also, re: setup balance, I'm not 100% sure really especially considering that I'm still very much a noob when it comes to that sort of stuff (for example, I had to have petapan give me a rundown of what to expect in terms of scum team distribution in Mafiastuck). 3-4 seems like a reasonable bet (though if it's 4, there's more wrong with me this game than I thought). Given that Baby Spice flipped goon, it's safe to say the scum team aren't completely stacked with PRs though.

[DeasVail]

Um, I'll probably say my thoughts on the setup later.

Regarding Zach, I'm really not sure whether or not to support lynching him today. I kind of feel like Snow and Konowa are my two main scumreads with a big gap between them and Zach and then probably another gap between him and NS. (Note that a couple of my reads are more strongly not-mafia than not-scum so in the case of an SK they could be quite different)

And based on my experience with him, MoI is nicer as scum than he is as town, and a few of his Day 1 posts indicated not-nice MoI to me. Zach has also given me a weak town feel, but really there's not that much that's town about the slot compared to others, so I could see him as scum, but Konowa and Snow just seem more likely to me right now?

Although Tammy, is there anyone else here that is aware of Snow's tendency to kill you as scum?

[Tammy]

Okay, I lied. I got sucked into The Wire tonight

I'm trying to finish season 1 before Faraday's game begins

I finished season 1 last night!

[Tammy]

Although Tammy, is there anyone else here that is aware of Snow's tendency to kill you as scum?

Well Kingmaker would have. Arthur might remember, though I don't think he's played in those games. Nobody else though.

Empire, I will...tomorrow. I'm going to sleep now.

[DeasVail]

Argh ok. I'll think on it.

[Empire]

And based on my experience with him, MoI is nicer as scum than he is as town, and a few of his Day 1 posts indicated not-nice MoI to me.

This is where I kinda disagree. He seemed really level-headed and "nice" in his back-and-forth with me and I recall him treating Arthur similarly. I think the only time he wasn't being nice was when he was addressing Johhog but I remembered that being tempered with some calm stuff. Have to re-look tomorrow.

[DeasVail]

Hmm yeah, it's only really one or two posts looking back, so maybe I'm wrong.

I just remember going from 'oh he seems kind of cool' in my first game where he was scum (I think he was one of the few not wanting to lynch me actually) to really not getting on with him in TM (but this was partly my problem too admittedly).

I still find the slot townish overall though, so would rather konowa/Snow, but maybe I'm ok with his lynch. Ugh, I don't know.

[Empire]

Yeah, I'm getting to the point where I have no idea what the fuck is happening.

*flips table*

Whatever, hoping that tomorrow's reread will help me out here.

[DeasVail]

Eh partly should probably be at least partly, it could've been all my problem for all I know.

[Zachrulez]

Tammy, when you speculate about Snowstorm being likely to kill you, was the decision to kill you in those games largely his or are you attributing the kills to him because scum as a unit chose to kill you?

One is evidence against him being scum, the other... not so much.

Snowstorm is still my top suspect, little has changed/little to add as we've just recently started getting more posting again after a dearth in activity. Depending on the context of the Tammy kills in the other game, I could see myself switching to Konowa. The big point that's worked in Konowa's favor was that he picked up his activity over the last couple of days... but that was also in response to criticism over his lack of activity so... eh.

[SnowStorm]

So, the fact that I'm still alive kind of makes me doubt SnowStorm being scum. But I also know we are not at Westeros and I probably wouldn't be first choice for a kill around here. Post 766 somewhat make me doubt a scum SnowStorm also in conjunction with the he always kills me as scum thing.

I don't like that he didn't follow up with it

and was waiting to see his response, but I *think* as scum he'd not bother with questioning me out of everyone else he could have questioned at the start of day 3. Like, a big part of me feels like if he were scum he'd just not want to deal with me as he'd know I was town and that I might get more focused on him if he were to try to focus on me. Does that make sense?

The follow up to that question could take me some time to write and I didn't have time for it. I also don't think it's urgent or even relevant because of rofl's likely breadcrumb, it's just that it bothered me that you stayed with your vote in KM for pressure rather than move it to Baby, whom you seemed to have a scum-read on.

[SnowStorm]

And based on my experience with him, MoI is nicer as scum than he is as town, and a few of his Day 1 posts indicated not-nice MoI to me.

This is where I kinda disagree. He seemed really level-headed and "nice" in his back-and-forth with me and I recall him treating Arthur similarly. I think the only time he wasn't being nice was when he was addressing Johhog but I remembered that being tempered with some calm stuff. Have to re-look tomorrow.

I agree with Empire. MoI definitely seemed nicer than ruder. I have only played with him once, in the ADWD game and even though I don't recall him being noticeably rude in that game, I don't recall him being nice either. But I do remember noticing this game that he seemed nicer than I thought he was.

[SnowStorm]

Tammy, when you speculate about Snowstorm being likely to kill you, was the decision to kill you in those games largely his or are you attributing the kills to him because scum as a unit chose to kill you?

I think we could say that was the case in the second game, since my partner was a new player with no scum experience and I was a two game scum veteran. In the first and third game, where I was partnered with Kingmaker, we'd discuss our preferred targets and reach an agreement. I don't think we ever disagreed though, so I can tell you that I always killed who I wanted to kill.

[Empire]

Really not in the mood for mafia right now, post later.

[Zar]

Prodding Konowa

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Sorry been busy last few days. Catching up tomorrow morning.

[Konowa]

Prod received, post tomorrow?

[Tammy]

The most recent Baby Spice scum game I could find: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=18881

[Tammy]

Okay so basically in that game, she mentioned one of her partners (magua) a couple of times, and I think mentioned Iam once, but other than that didn't interact or talk about her partners really at all.

That doesn't tell me much, but does make me feel better about Johhog and SAD, but I didn't really need babyspice for that as they're two of my strongest town reads. So besides them two, Empire is also still a strong town read.

Okay, I'm going to watch more Game of Thrones and sleep; I'll post more tomorrow. I think I have a question to answer too. I'll do that tomorrow or maybe in a little bit.