NY 160B - Welcome to Castle Zar - TIME FOR FIREWORKS!

[Zar]

After the peace treaty with the Westerosi, it took another quarter of a Century to end the rift with EpicMafia. Count BBMolla the Lurker stayed a full month in the Castle but was barely seen in any of the celebrations.

Day 3, Votecount 1

SnowStorm (2): Zachrulez, DeasVail
Zachrulez (2): Ser Arthur Dayne, Konowa
Konowa (1): Johhog

Not Voting (4):

SnowStorm, Empire, Tammy, Nobody Special

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: Sunday, January 13th, 2013 10:00 PM New York Time. (GMT-5)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2013-01-13 22:00:00)

[Konowa]

SnowStorm can be scum for 722.

[Konowa]

Zach, SnowStorm, or NS (hop from BabySpice to Nacho at end of D2).

[Konowa]

Last post.

563 from NS to Baby is weak question that doesn't have any alignment revealing intent behind it and seems more like a flyby, "here's a question for you to answer", type question. Baby's 569 is also where Tammy picks up on Baby not giving a read on MoI and so on.

[SnowStorm]

I can easily see either Konowa or Zach as a partner to Baby.

Baby Spice can die next. Analyzing the Mehdi wagon

before the flip

and calling him town for utterly crummy reasons just resonates like she knew what he'd flip. (Knew vs reasoned.)

This post sounds like distancing. Had Baby not been killed, she would have probably been today's lynch; bussing her would be a logical move from her partners, especially if they were in Zach's position. He replaced into a slot that was one of the top suspects so he had to redeem it some way. Baby's imminent lynch gave him an opportunity to do so. It's also odd that Baby didn't comment this post.

What I also find odd about Zach is that he was tunneling on DGB and he didn't seem to even consider looking for alternate lynches, but then he made that post that pretty accurately lists Baby's main scumtells. Then in his next post he says he is still reading the game and gives a town read on Tammy and Johhog. Sounds too much like a crowd pleaser, since those are pretty popular reads and those were the only reads he posted (including Baby's and DGB's). His vote and tunneling on DGB also seemed pretty convenient and taking Tammy's side against DGB, then posting the town read on her, it really looks like crowd pleasing. All in all I'm pretty wary of him.

As for Konowa, this post of Baby struck me as odd:

This. Nothing to fear is a weird thing to say here. A weird way to put it.

Why not comment on it before with konowa then?

Part mobile posting, part looking to se what would happen.

Also,

I'm not agreeing with Konowa about it lowering pressure

. Struck me more as some form of coaching.

Both Konowa and her went after NS because of the same post, but for some reason she disagreed with Konowa's (better) argument and made up that coaching stuff. It looked like distancing. ...Though now I could also see it as baby making up a reason as to why she didn't comment on the post when Konowa did.

Meh, I though there was more on Konowa, but I don't see any strong scum tells on a re-read. I didn't see anything that would oppose to him being her partner though, but I think Zach makes more sense, it just fits better. Another conclusion I took from Konowa's ISO is that he's not likely to be scum with Zach and vice versa. Which worries me because I have a good impression on the rest of the players.

[SnowStorm]

Btw,

VOTE: Zachrulez.

[DeasVail]

Unvote: SnowStorm

Vote: Konowa

Why I think he's scum:

-222 and 223 are probably the main ones. In 222, he says that even though Arc is prob town, a vig shot would be good. I think this might have been where I got my earlier weak townread from, although I've forgotten so maybe not. But anyway, now I'm thinking that vigging someone who you have a townread on isn't very natural, whereas scum could probably think to say it with Arc not being very useful, but I think that if you're town with a townread, you probably don't want them dead?
And I still think the 'when' in 223 is off.

Apart from that, I'd say the biggest thing is the lack of Baby spice interaction and not really commenting on her after Nacho's vote.

[Empire]

Erm, DV, pretty sure neither of the posts you linked to were by Konowa...

[Konowa]

I think he means 422 and 423.

[DeasVail]

Oh sorry, and Konowa is right.

422 and 423.

[Konowa]

422 and 423 and the reasoning you're giving is crap by the way. AA clearly was not a strong player, keeping her around would have benefited scum more than town (potential swing onto a town wagon/potential easy mislynch/scum not killing her for possible lylo). If you're going to policy shot, N1 is when to do it. I already explained to you earlier about 423, but you seemed to have forgotten that.

It seems that you are using these two posts as the crux of your arguement as to why I am scum and then adding the "lack of interaction" as an afterthought.

[Konowa]

Also, DV why are you just now bringing up that point (now that some pressure is building) when in 433 you said it was scummy and after Mehdi town flip you ignore it?

[DeasVail]

Regarding 422, that's exactly what I mean. If someone is prob town, wanting a policy shot doesn't make sense at all over someone you can't read or think is scum.

And when I'm scum, I have 'town' explanations for everything I say and do, so you explaining something is not going to make it less scummy.

I went through your ISO as I made the post and said things in the order that I saw/thought them.

And I had a weak townread on you yesterday, but I forget why.

[Tammy]

Don't prod me. I'll post tonight.

[Konowa]

Regarding 422, that's exactly what I mean. If someone is prob town, wanting a policy shot doesn't make sense at all over someone you can't read or think is scum.

And when I'm scum, I have 'town' explanations for everything I say and do, so you explaining something is not going to make it less scummy.

I went through your ISO as I made the post and said things in the order that I saw/thought them.

And I had a weak townread on you yesterday, but I forget why.

It does if the player in question is someone who is going to cause more trouble for town alive than dead. Don't tell me that you've never seen town call for a policy Vig shot before? I maybe misremembering, but didn't Empire call AA town and agreed with a Vig shot?

Then why aren't you saying -why- I would say that as scum. The only reason I see is if I was scum with Vi and wanted to clear him by linking him to Mehdi"scum" who I knew wouldn't flip scum thus giving me a pass on Vi.

[Empire]

Don't tell me that you've never seen town call for a policy Vig shot before? I maybe misremembering, but didn't Empire call AA town and agreed with a Vig shot?

No. I don't like policy anything.

That said, I think DV's point here actually rather sucks.

[DeasVail]

Hmm, you're probably right about Empire saying it. I remembered that someone had and I found it scummy, if that's the case then I may have to rethink that, but it's not about scum having a super good reason to say it, but more that scum aren't so concerned with reading everyosone so don't value townreads as much as I feel town would, so would be more likely to say it because of Arc.

I'm not saying that policy shots are necessarily bad, but usually I'd expect it when someone can't be read because of lurking etc. or is caught out in some way.

PEdit: Ok

[Empire]

Final installments coming up! I'm a bit exhausted so sorry if these two come out a bit rushed.

Baby Spice's Interactions With Other Slots Part Seven (SnowStorm):

First mention is #77 which I actually think points against Snow being on Baby's team, the way it's written coming across as an attempt to discredit Snow's vote on Mehdi by criticizing his playstyle. She does back away in #275, though, by calling his vote and explanation reasonable. #722 seems ok given the context but what bothers me is that the post comes before the Baby wagon accelerates (with DV's and NS's votes coming after the post) - aside from that, I don't really see all that much of a problem with the post given his explanation in #772. The only remaining interaction between the two slots is the minor back and forth they have starting with #734 over her NS suspicion and I'm not really sure how to take that given the context.

Bay Spice's Interactions With Other Slots Part Eight (NS):

Baby Spice first votes NS for a frankly really weird reason (#59 + #63), accusing him of "coaching" AA9 with his "nothing to fear" comment. Throughout her ISO, there are little sprinkles of NS suspicion that never really fully materialize such as in #534 and in #596. Probably the weirdest thing is NS' vote on Baby Spice and later reasoning in #735 and #740 - it just seems like a really weak and bizarre reason to jump on the Baby wagon. Have to look at the wagons again though to see if this is a bus because I think the Nacho and Zach wagons were all around equal size at this time.

---

I was hoping going through this would help me narrow it down more but all it did was eliminate the obvious (Johhog, Arthur, and Tammy). That means what's left is, in no order:

MoI/Zach
DV
NS
Konowa
SnowStorm

Going to have to reread them individually to see what I think of their play. I remember townreading NS, Konowa, and SnowStorm but I have pretty much 0 confidence in my scumhunting at the moment so I think they're all worth a second look. One thing that bugs me too is the latest night kill - roflcopter is a weird kill especially given that I don't think he made his role obvious at all (it was only after I saw his flip that I realized that remark about Tammy was a possible breadcrumb). If we're going to assume that scum killed roflcopter because he was somehow right with his reads to some extent, that points a bit to Zach and DV since he basically spent a large part of his time alive tunneling both slots.

Any thoughts?

[Tammy]

Okay, I lied. I got sucked into The Wire tonight, I'll post tomorrow. My schedule frees up tomorrow anyway.

Although empire real quick. I've been trying to figure out what to make of the rofl kill too, though I've also been trying to make sense of the vi kill. The one thing with rofl is that he was very outspoken. I'm leaning away from it pointing to dv though. I think that dv seems townish, and I know that nacho feels really confident in his ability to read dv and he had him as a strong town read, so I'm adding that into my own thoughts.

Anyway, tomorrow...tonight *sleep*

[Tammy]

Oh and I said that AA might be town and agreed with the vig shot and I stand by that. I thought even if she was town she'd be a detriment to town, and I'm super happy that's not something I have to worry about right now.

(to dv since he was wondering who said that. Someone lse might have too, but idk)

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Okay, I lied. I got sucked into The Wire tonight

I'm trying to finish season 1 before Faraday's game begins

[Empire]

Although empire real quick. I've been trying to figure out what to make of the rofl kill too, though I've also been trying to make sense of the vi kill. The one thing with rofl is that he was very outspoken. I'm leaning away from it pointing to dv though. I think that dv seems townish, and I know that nacho feels really confident in his ability to read dv and he had him as a strong town read, so I'm adding that into my own thoughts.

I've been thinking about the Vi kill, too. I had a tinfoil theory that MoI killed Vi wanting to get him out of the way since he's a really competent player but that kill could plausibly come from pretty much anyone in the room, I think. I also thought maybe Konowa could have killed him given their experiences in Dresden and Reverse Mafia Redux but there are some serious problems with that (I'll get to it tomorrow but they should be pretty obvious).

Really need your thoughts on SnowStorm since I pretty much have come to the conclusion that I have no idea and you + Arthur know him best so I'm pretty much prepared to sheep on that front.

P-Edit: I still need to finish The Wire S1 too...

[DeasVail]

Unvote: Konowa

Vote: SnowStorm

I think I still have Konowa as a scumread, but I'm leaning more towards SnowStorm now that I'm not so sure of the policy vig thing, and also considering that he thought Empire suggested one and that he already explained his scummy post, both of which didn't happen as far as I know. I think this is at least a slight towntell because I think scum would be more likely to check their facts, particularly when under pressure, but a lot of the time I make something out of nothing, so I'll have to think about it.

[DeasVail]

Oh, and I forgot to say thanks Tammy.

Unrelated, I'm considering starting The Wire too hehe.

[Zar]

Prodding Nobody Special