Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Legacy (Game Over)

[mykonian]

unless you think jason is ballsy, he's town. And he's been timid all game. It's just a weird fake if he's scum.

[AngryPidgeon]

In that case couldn’t all the pr claims be true and we have 9/7 split? I guess I could buy a 10/6 split to which means 1 vt is lying and one pr is scum.

Cool. So 2 vt claims are lying. Or maybe just one. This doesn't really narrow it down at all Like I said...all these claims arent really powerful at all so there COULD be 2 lying as well and from a balance perspective it wouldnt change much anyways.

Unless the scum had several useless roles that could be thrown at Acosmist on accident (neighborizer/mesenger) lol which could arguable increase town power.

And ya I THINK its 4 scum because otherwise the balance is looking pretty WTF right now, but 5 seems like the more normal ratio for this size game and like I keep saying:

WHY DO SOMETHING OTHER THAN ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION FFS.

Read on Jason, Nero?

P-edit: Why is it a weird fake? Do you think Mastin can possibly scum despite that meta cyber town slip?

[AngryPidgeon]

Because objectively Jason's claim is the most full of shit.

[mykonian]

well, obviously. But it doesn't fit his person (oh, and KK disagrees with you).

Hadn't read mastins posts, but yes, that's pretty damn convincing. You could perhaps make a case that cyber posted that in both games if he were scum, since none really gave him experience yet. But it's not the most likely case, I guess, him drawing scum in both games.

[AngryPidgeon]

But we already know he was scum in the other game so conditional probability suggests its just the smae likelihood as him being scum here...

[mykonian]

bleh, fuck, you are right. I shouldn't post when tired.

Yes, then it shouldn't matter.

[Nero Cain]

Hey AP. I have a great idea. Instead of bitching and moaning aout my setup speculatio why don't you post your own.

Also

I think its completely plausible but if you believed that then why are you yapping about it being LYLO when math says its not LYLO?

[mykonian]

I don't know about you, but I prefer good and honest scumhunting. Esspecially when there aren't guilties running around. If you see a clear cut case on a powerrole, go for it, but otherwise it's mostly a distraction in my opinion.

[Nero Cain]

sO YOU THINK THE LAST SCU ARE AMONG THE VTS?

[AngryPidgeon]

Hey AP. I have a great idea. Instead of bitching and moaning aout my setup speculatio why don't you post your own.

Also

I think its completely plausible but if you believed that then why are you yapping about it being LYLO when math says its not LYLO?

Pretty sure I did.

Weak prs - probably only 4 scum.
Setup spec seems pointless given that all the 'prs' still alive arent really that powerful.

And what the fuck. Ive said it at least 5 fucking times. I dont know if its Mylo/lylo or whatever the fuck. But why the fuck should anyone just go assuming it ISN'T, ESPECIALLY without any good reasoning? Are you reading like at all?

P-edit: No, the setup spec you are doing is fucking pointless is all.

[mykonian]

you, mastin, pidgey is the set I'm currently going for. So no, I have one powerrole in my list. You could have known this.

and why the fuck is Nero talking as if this game isn't running towards it's end? We got yates, better use that advantage.

[AngryPidgeon]

So apparently there are only 4 days left. Pretty sure about Acosmist/pidgey/mastin being town.

[mastin2]

Why weren't we supposed to question you the moment you wanted to push a jason lynch through just after he claimed?

'Cause his claim, as originally stated, made him a lynch-immune VT, and we're on evens. You test the claim, go into night, scum kill someone to bring it to odds, and we're back the next day, with one less suspect. (Two, if the scum killed someone other than jason.)

Hence the vote. The question wasn't why to lynch jason; it was why not to.

....And theeeeeeen he had to go claim that his role is actually lynch-immune treestump, which is not only significantly weaker, but also makes it so that we can't lynch him without losing the game if there are three scum (now) / four scum (yesterday) and his claim is legit, as he loses his vote and the town would no longer be able to obtain a majority.

In other words, he went from someone who we could lynch with absolutely no risk and a bundle-load of reward...to someone who we can only lynch if we're sure he's scum. (Which I do, for the record. )

This is the post where you switched your read on me. Tell me why mastin.

I already did: the circumstances surrounding your vote on me. My read on you was bad (see also: "Among my top suspects by POE"), and your vote on me was what sealed the deal.

Side-note, both myk and Khan have basically been going, "SCREW YOU, MASTIN!" for a while. It's more and more reading like "right for all the wrong reasons" from 'em. (Or, more specifically, "right despite giving no reasons". )


For the record, I am treating today as mylo with three scum left. Two scum alive would make my job

much

easier, but I have to assume there are three until the game's proven otherwise.

And I think I've changed my lynch preferences slightly, to be Khan-myk-jason, rather than Khan-jason-myk.

[mastin2]

...That said, am willing to hear alternatives, so long as the alternatives are not AP.

[Nero Cain]

And what the fuck. Ive said it at least 5 fucking times. I dont know if its Mylo/lylo or whatever the fuck. But why the fuck should anyone just go assuming it ISN'T, ESPECIALLY without any good reasoning? Are you reading like at all?

So you believe there's two scum left wich would mean we aren't in lylo but we should still be careful 'cause we might have 3 scum instead wich still would't put us in lylo. You should think better before you post.

you, mastin, pidgey is the set I'm currently going for. So no, I have one powerrole in my list. You could have known this.

So you think scum is one pr, 2 vts. Intesresting!!!

Hey AP, explain this to me.

P-edit: No, the setup spec you are doing is fucking pointless is all.

BUT Myko just came to the very same conclusion as me (different players but still 1 pr, 2 vts) but mine is pointless and his is't. Why?

[Nero Cain]

Its looking like a myko-AP team to me.

[mastin2]

Also, should be noted--myk missed his message.

What if, in order to perform the mafia kill, he can't both kill and send a message?

Would explain the lack of a message.
Also, his fear of targeting Aco.

[AngryPidgeon]

So you believe there's two scum left wich would mean we aren't in lylo but we should still be careful 'cause we might have 3 scum instead wich still would't put us in lylo. You should think better before you post.

Wow. And you have nothing wrong with Mastin saying HE is going to assume there are 3 scum for all intents and purposes? Its a good policy.

Mastin, why are you reading town on Nero?

[mastin2]

Oh and by the way...

So you think scum is one pr, 2 vts. Intesresting!!!

I'm not opposed to this line of thought, though really, I'm town and I strongly, STRONGLY, believe AP to be town as well.

If there's a second scum in the VTs aside from Khan, then POE says pidgey.

My townread has waned enough that someone making a solid case on pidgey could sway me, but he's not a lynch I'd so much as fathom for today.

At this stage in the game, I'd be willing to say that Khan and myk are VERY good bets for scum, but whether the third is jason or pidgey is what's up in the air.

It's pretty much definitely not Nero, it's certainly not Aco, soyeah.
Khan-myk-jason/pidgey is what we're looking at.

[Nero Cain]

First catchup post crashed midway through my analysis thanks to sucky internet, here's take 2:

Zab iso analysis:
Post 14: votes jason for not reading the flavor. as KK pointed out, this is more of a town tell imo than scum
Posts 31-33 useless fluff
Post 121 - contradicts self when referencing claimed PGO "I'm actually not considering people who went after him suspicious, mostly because I feel this is one of those cases where scum are just willing to let town make the case and then get slammed for it later." Ummm, you voted Jason after he voted the PGO???
Post 136 - Blames a lack of vote on drugs?
Post 187 - contradicts prior contradiction! "I am not a fan of anybody on the Aco wagon." Only one person voted him the whole game, the guy you unvoted 66 posts earlier.
Post 216 - you state "We understand the concept of Devil's Advocate. We're glad you know how to do that Ben."

Can you explain who the "we" and "we're" are?

Post 254 - You are sheeping RC's and Kise's comments to vote KK. RC's last post was 172, which is prior to post 204 when you voted Ben. Why didn't you mention anything about suspecting KK, or RC's comments prior to 254? As a matter of fact, part of your reason in 203 that you state for voting Ben was KK's points on him. It sounds like you trusted KK at that point, 30+ posts after RC's last points on KK.
Post 269 - Not a fan of "but I have scum feelings about people that should logically be somewhat clear by the AV flip." The guy had 4 or 5 posts for crying out loud. You really think much can be picked out from those few early posts that would override the scumminess displayed by players in this game?

My biggest issue is the KK vote. He voted Ben one day early based on points made by KK, then votes him when this stage 2 of voting begins, sheeping kise. It had the feel of trying to back a wagon he felt would gain steam counter to his. The contradictions, lack of voting when the game started to get going, and the possible scumslip of multiple scum teams as BC pointed out just adds to the scumminess.

Still need to reread zoroaster, BC, and a few other isos, so the vote may be changing, but for now I feel good about:

vote Zabriel

Early town reads for Nero, Tammy, Jason, and KK.

Mastin, I fail to see how you don't fid this post scummy.

[AngryPidgeon]

BUT Myko just came to the very same conclusion as me (different players but still 1 pr, 2 vts) but mine is pointless and his is't. Why?

Because Mykonian is not doing any setup spec. He has reads that he is announcing that happens to line up with being 2 VT claims and a not VT claim. YOU are the only person who actually gives a shit about setup spec right now and YOU are the one that pointed out that mykonians reads add up to that. What happened to not outguessing the mod?

[mastin2]

Mastin, why are you reading town on Nero?

Partly for the QT, partly for my scumread on myk.

And partly 'cause of necessity.

I'm getting NK'd tonight (after presumably a Khan lynch), so he's my only line to communicating my thoughts to players for tomorrow. If he's scum, he can claim anything he wants, and/or twist my words as he pleases. Meaning that in order for my analysis during the night to be effective (and I will be doing so), he pretty much

has

to be town.

[Nero Cain]

So you believe there's two scum left wich would mean we aren't in lylo but we should still be careful 'cause we might have 3 scum instead wich still would't put us in lylo. You should think better before you post.

Wow. And you have nothing wrong with Mastin saying HE is going to assume there are 3 scum for all intents and purposes? Its a good policy.

Mastin, why are you reading town on Nero?

So when I speculated there were three scum you didn't like it but you are okay with Mastin's speculation. Why is this?

[AngryPidgeon]

Seriously, Nero is misrepping and contradicting himself reallllly hard. Mastin, dont rule out Nero just because KK is voting him.

P-edit: So Nero is town because you hope he is. That is just peachy.

P-P-edit: Ive been under the impression that YOU think there are three because you think I am scum and slipped about it. Which OF COURSE I disagree with. Mastin said he doesnt know but is going to assume there is...which is my policy exactly...

[mykonian]

...That said, am willing to hear alternatives, so long as the alternatives are not AP.

Good, lets lynch pidgey.

So, your scumread is really only based on the fact that I have a scumread on you.

I already did: the circumstances surrounding your vote on me. My read on you was bad (see also: "Among my top suspects by POE"), and your vote on me was what sealed the deal.

There was no lead up... before that you never mentioned any single scumtell on me. The only thing changing that was my vote. There was no "sealing the deal". It

was

"the deal"

Its looking like a myko-AP team to me.

I suspect you suddenly realized I'm convinced by KK's case? Is this why you asked me if I suspected only VT's?


I love how I'm suddenly appearing on the scumlists of the three people I'm pushing (though pidgey, as ever, sits on a fence. God that must hurt after 7 days).