Mini 370: Reverse Mafia - Game Over!

[Zindaras]

The changes of me being godfather are no bigger really than themanhimself being godfather.

You claimed after the Cop claim, theman before. That's a very important difference. I agree with the general consensus among the living players that we should have Sherlock post some content before reviving him.

[al_kohaulec]

Yes, but there was reason for that.

The RB claim was in the very beginning, with no reason to claim it. The doc claim came shortly after a cop claim, because having a doc/cop duo revived appeared to be a very good option.

I do disagree with Twito's point about the godfather, but I don't agree with the validity of Zind's last statement either.

anyways....
/awaits Sherlock.

[Zindaras]

Yes, but there was reason for that.

The RB claim was in the very beginning, with no reason to claim it. The doc claim came shortly after a cop claim, because having a doc/cop duo revived appeared to be a very good option.

I do disagree with Twito's point about the godfather, but I don't agree with the validity of Zind's last statement either.

anyways....
/awaits Sherlock.

I disagree with the Doc claim being seen as a good idea. I'd also like to see more discussion as to who everyone thinks is scum or town in limbo, rather than just waiting for Sherlock. I'd like to investigate Town again tonight.

[M4yhem]

Al, C_D- I didn’t ask the questions earlier because I wanted the day over with. I was already considering Zinder’s revival before he claimed, so I saw no reason to wait afterwards. Now my mind is refreshed after a little break from the game, and I’m ready to think critically again. Don’t really see how the delay is suspicious, but whatever.

Chaotic- What happened to waiting for Lordy?

Have you asked CDb if you are sane?

Now I have. >.>

I can guess, but might as well be clear: What did he say?

Ah, there is, however, one thing to note:

Sherlock can't be a godfather. A godfather-roleblocker? It would be quite silly of a godfather to claim roleblocker. Also, I think the Mafia would gladly trade one of its own for a (sane) limbo cop.

But if Doc can be given as a safe claim, surely roleblocker can too? Not that I believe this, just putting it out there.

StallingChamp- Yes, other cops should claim immediately. For one thing, it helps to give clue about sanity issues; it also helps us to work out if Zindaras is faking it.

Yos- No answer to my question? If you consider it beneath you, explain why.

Good Karma Twito

Sherlock- you out there, man? This is your big scene.
Some questions for the greatest detective in fiction:
Who do you trust the most, apart from yourself?
Who do you trust the least?
What do you think of Zindaras, Tamuz and Yosarian?
Who would you fight to revive next?
Who would you fight against reviving?
Do you want any guidance on who to roleblock tonight?

A summery of things TheManHimself said, for lazy viewers.
He was always in favour of reviving powerroles first, and in getting people to claim before revival. I consider this a protown stance, although Zindaras’ safe claim theory has made me rethink a little.
He was suspicious of Thoth.
He voted to revive Mr.Cesar, then said it was a joke
Voted for Yellowbounder for the heck of it.
And that’s pretty much all.

You all know this already, but might as well make sure it’s crystal clear: Zindaras can’t be scum with Yos or Tamuz, or else the game would be over. All of them can be scum by themselves, of course.

Mr cop sir, I believe the following people to be scum, based on vibes/ responses/general dodginess:
Chaotic_Diablo- against looking for scum, tried to stall cop revival, just generally creepy, overagressive.
Al_Kohaulec- scummy interactions with C_D, fence-sitting, doesn’t want to be investigated.
Thoth- Overwhelmingly negative without cause, aggressive, choice of C_D for revival.
Yos- against claiming (has something to hide), interactions with C_D and Al, possible fear of investigation.

The following people are probably town:
Crashy teh dumb- Did his own thing despite popular opinion, stuck his neck out to revive you.
Twito- Just seems town. Not sure I buy your safe claims theory.
Tamuz- Seemed focused on finding scum when he was in limbo. Quieter now: what’s up with that?

Obviously shining example of protown goodness:
M4yhem

Need more data:
Stallingchamp
Lordy.

Lordy- anything to say?

Good Karma

: CrashTextDummie.

[Yosarian2]

Ah, you want me to answer the same question, m4hem? Didn't see that.

Well, of course I know I'm town and I'm not sure about Tamuz, so I'd rather see him blocked then me, just in case he is scum. It's up to the roleblocker, though, and of course he dosn't know my alignment. (shrug) Worst case scenerio, say the roleblocker blocks me and then someone dies, at least that'll confirm my alignment.

As for your arguments, they're pretty weak. It's hardly a scum tell to not want claims that could hurt the town. Once someone came up with a plan for specific claims in such a way that it would help the town, I was in favor of it.

And I certanly don't have any "fear" of investigation. I just know that wasting a cop investigation to confirm a person already alive as a good guy would be quite bad for the town at this point, I would much rather the cop investiatge people in limbo. In fact, your pushing of that anti-town idea is just making me more suspicious of you.

If we can revive a good guy today and tommorow, and then have 5 good guys alive, then we win. If we revive someone tommorow and the game dosn't end, then we'll know to start looking at the living, because one of them would have to be scum. Until we have some reason to think we have a scum alive, though, I'm not going to assume it at this point.

[al_kohaulec]

My thoughts rigth now on those in limbo,

Lordy - his few posts looked like they were helping town, but he really hasn't posted enough to get a good read on him. He hasn't shown anything to really push him far enough into being town.

Sherlock - obv I believe him now and am for him being revived.

Twito - I believe the doc claim, a godfather is possible, but I doubt it. I just don't see it as that likely, I believe and trust him to be town.

chaotic_Diablo - Started out looking protown, and after a while I started becoming more distrustful of him. I'm not sure where I stand now, but he might be a good candidate for revival.

M4yhem, I still don't approve of a M4yhem investigation, for fear of a possible godfather. I would otherwise approve of one, but he's my best choice for godfather so I'd rather not.

Thoth - I'm liking Thoth, he's seeming pretty protown, I would be for an investigation of him.

StallingChamp - I was getting scum vibes from YB in the beginning of the game, I don't have much from SC yet, but for now I'd steer clear of him too.

CTD - I'm not liking CTD, I've been getting some scummy vibes from him, I'd rather steer away from him.

alko - I don't have anything against being investigated, it would result in my revival, but from Zindie's point of view I wouldn't be the best choice. Since we only need one more townie to be revived if our three current players and the RB are town, I would be in favor of me being revived.

[ChannelDelibird]

Here's your first

Karma Count!

Sherlock

3

Zindaras

1

Twito

1

CrashTextDummie

1

lordy

0

StallingChamp

0

Tamuz

0

Thoth

0

al_kohaulec

0

M4yhem

-1

Yosarian2

-1

chaotic_diablo

-1

[Tamuz]

Ahh, the waiting game, how fun.

Seeing (and I assume) that we're having no counterclaims I'd think Twito would be a pretty good choice for a investigation tonight. I think I can safely say that he is fishy, but an investigation would make that sure or push it the otherway. Otherwise, given the circumstances and the claim, I would recommend looking his way for tommorow, unless you want to investigate the person we collectively think is most likely town. At which point I would probably recommend making use of the karma system and take the top person from there that isn't already alive.

No I'm not forcing you, of course, just putting in my guiding input.

[Zindaras]

I can guess, but might as well be clear: What did he say?

That I know all he is prepared to tell me.

Reading the replies is very interesting. I think I already know my target for tonight, but get those Karma votes in, by all means.

[StallingChamp]

Ok, alot of people have been asking to hear more from me. What exactly would you like me to say?

[Zindaras]

Ok, alot of people have been asking to hear more from me. What exactly would you like me to say?

Yellowbounder was not exactly one of the most prolific posters.

I would appreciate general opinions. Who do you think are scum/town? (both of the revived players and those in limbo)

[CrashTextDummie]

Two facts:
1. At least two of our three living must be town, otherwise, the game would be over.
2. We

might

be in "revive or lose", so please be careful with your votes, my red-blooded fellows.

I have a couple of questions for a couple of people:
Zindaras - Which role do you deem more useful for the town in general and in this particular situation: doc or roleblocker? Don't be shy to provide some reasons.

al_kohaulec (this has been the first time I was able to spell your name without looking it up, btw) - Could you elaborate on these "scummy vibes" you've been getting from me? And do you believe Zindaras' cop claim?

I'll be back when I've gotten these questions answered.

[chaotic_diablo]

Chaotic_Diablo- against looking for scum, tried to stall cop revival, just generally creepy, overagressive

Do you have anything to support your points?

I stalled the cop revival in order to obtain information. Coincidentally, it is the same information that you just tried to obtain this very day. That was whole freakin purpose that I stated in multiple posts, posts that you happened to not 'read'.

IMO, we should focus more on who to revive rather on who to investigate. No matter what argument is brought up, anyone has an equal chance to be scum, whether they lurk the most or post the most. Ultimately, I'd rather Zindaras to make the choices rather than have a slight chance of scum influence.

I can see how people can see sherlock as innocent, but not how people are convinced of his innocence. We haven't heard from sherlock yet.

[Zindaras]

I have a couple of questions for a couple of people:
Zindaras - Which role do you deem more useful for the town in general and in this particular situation: doc or roleblocker? Don't be shy to provide some reasons.

Roleblocker. Let's assume we have revived a Mafiate here (if we haven't, it's irrelevant and both are equal). If we revive the doc, we get one free night, because scum will hit the doc first. If we revive the roleblocker, we have a 50% chance of continually roleblocking the scum. We also have a 50% chance to lose the cop outright. A doc is only a temporary help. A roleblocker is permanent.

IMO, we should focus more on who to revive rather on who to investigate. No matter what argument is brought up, anyone has an equal chance to be scum, whether they lurk the most or post the most. Ultimately, I'd rather Zindaras to make the choices rather than have a slight chance of scum influence.

I make my own choices. However, I do want other people to raise points regarding each other, as discussion is good for scum-catching, and I want information to decide on my investigation.

[M4yhem]

Yos- I know my case against you is not that strong. Nonetheless, I suspect you on and off, and so I have to put you on my suspects list.
You bring up some good points, once again. I had forgotten/never realised that we could win with just five people alive. In that case it makes sense to concentrate on revivals.

Alky- Any particular reason you persist in believing me to be a godfather? From my point of view, it seems like you’re trying to make sure I won’t be revived even if I’m found to be innocent; perhaps because you know I would never vote for you or your scumbuddies? If you are interested in the truth, take a look at speed mafia, where I actually was a godfather. Note how I never mention the role, even when another player suggests a heavily cop-reliant plan.

Bad Karma: Al_Kohaulec

StallingChamp- Like Zinders said, I want to know what you think of the other players. Who do you trust? Who do you distrust? Who would you be for/against reviving? Do you think any of the already living players are scum? Stuff like that.

Crash;
1. I said that already. You are reading my posts, aren’t you? Please? But you’re right, anyway.
2. Technically we’ve been in revive-or-lose since day 0.5. It

would

be a shame to lose now though, obviously.

C_D- You didn’t ask the cop any questions though. How did you hope to obtain information just by waiting? I don’t believe you, quite honestly.

Do you have anything to support your points?

Yes.

No matter what argument is brought up, anyone has an equal chance to be scum, whether they lurk the most or post the most.

Um...That’s just wrong. Scum act differetly from town, otherwise finding scum would just be a random coinflip. I can’t believe you believe that.

More thoughts on Sherlock:
There are basically three scenarios here, if we consider just the cop angle.

Scenario one: Zindaras is the cop, and he is sane. Sherlock could still be scum if he is the godfather. If Sherlock is the godfather, he can’t be roleblocker too, so he would have taken a big risk by claiming. I’d say 1 gives us a 90% chance of an innocent Sherlock, 10% scum Sherlock.

Scenario two: Zindaras is the cop and he is insane/naive/random.
If Zindaras were insane or naive, he could still get an accurate innocent on Sherlock by pure chance. It’s only if Zind is crazy that Sherlock is definite scum. I think naive cops are rare without paranoid cops, and random cops are just plain rare, but a crazy cop with backwards results would fit the theme. So I’d say Sherlock is 60% scum, 40% town in scenario two.

Scenario three: Zindaras is a liar, and is not the cop.
In this case Sherlock is most likely Zindaras’ partner. I’d say 99% scum.
For this to be true, Zindaras would either know there was no cop, or take a huge risk that he would not be counterclaimed. Sherlock would be claiming his real role.

So which scenario is most likely?
I have serious doubts about scenario three. I would say it stretches credibility.

Scenario two is obviously a possibility.

But I believe scenario one to be the case, because a sane cop would balance the fact that the town’s normal source of concrete information is cut off. By this time in a normal game, we would know the alignments of four to six people, based on lynches and nightkills. Not knowing which bandwagons are good or bad is a fairly significant handicap for the town. There may not even

be

a godfather.

[Yosarian2]

I can see how people can see sherlock as innocent, but not how people are convinced of his innocence. We haven't heard from sherlock yet.

Basically, when themanhimself first claimed, I considered the possibility he might be a scum roleblocker, or that he might be a lying vanillia scum willing to take a large risk in order to try and get revived on day 1. A large risk, because if lying he might have been counterclaimed by a pro-town roleblocker, or if we did revive him there's the risk of us testing him and figuring out he's lying, but it might be a risk worth taking.

However, if the scum were going to have one of their memebers take that kind of risk, my guess is it probably wouldn't be the godfather. Being godfather wouldn't help at all if you get counterclaimed or if you are forced to demonstrate your ability later and are found to be lying. So my thoughts were the themanhimself might have been a scum roleblocker, or a vanillia scum, but that it was unlikely he was the scum godfather.

But he was found innocent. Like I said, I don't think he's a godfather, so I'm thinking that either he's a good guy, or Zindaras has sanity problems, or Zindaras is lying. I already had a good feeling about themanhimself, and this point I'm thinking that he's very probably a good guy.

Even so, I would agree that I'd like to hear from him today before we revive him.

[Twito]

I can see how people can see sherlock as innocent, but not how people are convinced of his innocence. We haven't heard from sherlock yet.

Basically, when themanhimself first claimed, I considered the possibility he might be a scum roleblocker, or that he might be a lying vanillia scum willing to take a large risk in order to try and get revived on day 1. A large risk, because if lying he might have been counterclaimed by a pro-town roleblocker, or if we did revive him there's the risk of us testing him and figuring out he's lying, but it might be a risk worth taking.

However, if the scum were going to have one of their memebers take that kind of risk, my guess is it probably wouldn't be the godfather. Being godfather wouldn't help at all if you get counterclaimed or if you are forced to demonstrate your ability later and are found to be lying. So my thoughts were the themanhimself might have been a scum roleblocker, or a vanillia scum, but that it was unlikely he was the scum godfather.

But he was found innocent. Like I said, I don't think he's a godfather, so I'm thinking that either he's a good guy, or Zindaras has sanity problems, or Zindaras is lying. I already had a good feeling about themanhimself, and this point I'm thinking that he's very probably a good guy.

Even so, I would agree that I'd like to hear from him today before we revive him.

Goodposting.

I'm not gonna coincider the change of Zindaras lying coz then we are fucked.
So either with sanity problems or Sherlock is cleared innocent.

[ChannelDelibird]

Sherlock has been prodded.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not gonna coincider the change of Zindaras lying coz then we are fucked.

Not really good logic here; if Zindaras is lying, we're only fucked if we don't consider the possibility of him lying.

I don't really think he is, but I just wanted to point out that that's a really bad reason to not even consider it at this point. Do you think he could be lying?

[Twito]

I'm not gonna coincider the change of Zindaras lying coz then we are fucked.

Not really good logic here; if Zindaras is lying, we're only fucked if we don't consider the possibility of him lying.

I don't really think he is, but I just wanted to point out that that's a really bad reason to not even consider it at this point. Do you think he could be lying?

If he is lying we have 2town(/or maybe seperate scumgroups) and him alive atm. Meaning he just made a fake investigation on his scumbuddy Sherlock. Right now we are mostlikely gonna revive Sherlock. They will kill one townie at night and there will be more scum than town alive tomorrow.

If he is lying all we can do is not revive Sherlock yet. But I'm willing believe he is town.

[chaotic_diablo]

C_D- You didn’t ask the cop any questions though. How did you hope to obtain information just by waiting? I don’t believe you, quite honestly

What do you think the whole point of stalling the cop revival? Make myself look scummy? Get ready to be proven wrong.

Usually, I would agree that the set-up would be balanced in some way. However, we don't know how. Therefore, I'd like to have a direct source tell us first before we revive him. This might include a possible delay in his investigation or a sanity problem. I don't care what it is, but there has to be a catch and I'd like to know beforehand

My intentions.

Yes, I've been wondering about the borkenness of my role. There are no clues whatsoever to any sanity problems in my PM. I've got a few theories, but I'll reveal those later (or even in this post).

It's RIGHT THERE.

Um...That’s just wrong. Scum act differetly from town, otherwise finding scum would just be a random coinflip. I can’t believe you believe that.

I worded that incorrectly. Sorry, my intentions were actually that the behavior of sherlock has nothing to indicate protown vibes. All he has is a cop investigation, which you yourself stated that we couldn't rely on completely. As a result, an investigation will only give us an equal chance to know if he is scum or not despite the arguments for/against him. People are making arguments for him, preventing us from actually getting a read on him. If scum can be determined by behavior, then let him do it, not come up with excuses to vouch for his revival.

[al_kohaulec]

I have a couple of questions for a couple of people:
Zindaras - Which role do you deem more useful for the town in general and in this particular situation: doc or roleblocker? Don't be shy to provide some reasons.

Roleblocker. Let's assume we have revived a Mafiate here (if we haven't, it's irrelevant and both are equal). If we revive the doc, we get one free night, because scum will hit the doc first. If we revive the roleblocker, we have a 50% chance of continually roleblocking the scum. We also have a 50% chance to lose the cop outright. A doc is only a temporary help. A roleblocker is permanent.

This is assuming we have revived scum.

Now under this assumption, we revive the RB and there's a 50% chance that you die. We may know who scum is, but that won't do us a lot of good if we can't lynch him. If we revived the doc, then even if the doc would die first, we will know for sure that scum is alive, and we won't be risking your life w/o knowing if we have scum or not.

The RB isn't any more permament in the sense that he can die, just like the cop can. He would have to block the correct player, assuming we have scum, and also if he fails, there's a greater chance that you would die, rather than the player (RB or doc) who's trying to help protect you.

Alky- Any particular reason you persist in believing me to be a godfather? From my point of view, it seems like you’re trying to make sure I won’t be revived even if I’m found to be innocent; perhaps because you know I would never vote for you or your scumbuddies? If you are interested in the truth, take a look at speed mafia, where I actually was a godfather. Note how I never mention the role, even when another player suggests a heavily cop-reliant plan.

Bad Karma: Al_Kohaulec

I believe you are more likely town than godfather, but if anybody in this game is the godfather, you are my best guess.

You shouldn't be so whiney about me not wanting you revived. I mean, if you're town, then you shouldn't care that much because you can still win with only one or two more townie revivals (after this one).

[chaotic_diablo]

But I believe scenario one to be the case, because a sane cop would balance the fact that the town’s normal source of concrete information is cut off. By this time in a normal game, we would know the alignments of four to six people, based on lynches and nightkills. Not knowing which bandwagons are good or bad is a fairly significant handicap for the town. There may not even be a godfather.

That's a good point. Usually there is an information role included in every game, so it would be most likely Zindaras is cop. However, his saneness isn't proved by this.
If we had more than one cop, then obviously there will be many different sanities. This causes counterclaiming to be worthless. In a view, a smart cop would realize this. In a normal game, a cop would investigate the claimed cop and see if there are any problems with it. As you can see, it actually brings more information for us. I'm not quite sure how it will work out in this game, but we still haven't accounted for Zindara's brokeness, something Zindaras himself stated.
Because of this scenario, it makes your suggested scenario two and three more likely. Scenario one is most probable, but I still think we should keep an eye out for the other two.

Yos, what if inhim was scum, but acted by his own accord? I just don't get the sense that scum would try a risky maneuver like this unless they were super coordinated. I've seen STD try a stunt and his scum members had no idea what he was pulling. He failed and got lynched.

[Yosarian2]

But I believe scenario one to be the case, because a sane cop would balance the fact that the town’s normal source of concrete information is cut off. By this time in a normal game, we would know the alignments of four to six people, based on lynches and nightkills. Not knowing which bandwagons are good or bad is a fairly significant handicap for the town. There may not even be a godfather.

That's a good point. Usually there is an information role included in every game, so it would be most likely Zindaras is cop. However, his saneness isn't proved by this.
If we had more than one cop, then obviously there will be many different sanities. This causes counterclaiming to be worthless. In a view, a smart cop would realize this. In a normal game, a cop would investigate the claimed cop and see if there are any problems with it. As you can see, it actually brings more information for us. I'm not quite sure how it will work out in this game, but we still haven't accounted for Zindara's brokeness, something Zindaras himself stated.
Because of this scenario, it makes your suggested scenario two and three more likely. Scenario one is most probable, but I still think we should keep an eye out for the other two.

Yos, what if inhim was scum, but acted by his own accord? I just don't get the sense that scum would try a risky maneuver like this unless they were super coordinated. I've seen STD try a stunt and his scum members had no idea what he was pulling. He failed and got lynched.

Assuming you mean "theman" instead of "inhim" here, right?

Well, my general feeling would be that a scum godfather would be less likely to risk himself with that kind of risky scheme then a vanillia scum. Investigative immunity is always quite a powerful passive ability for scum, and even more so then usual in this game, so my thinking would be that a godfather would be less likely to take that kind of risk in that kind of situation. A vanillia scum might take a very big risk to try and get revived very early, but I don't think that would be a good stratagy for a godfather that early on day 1.

Not that it's impossible, but it just dosn't strike me as likely. Also, like I mentioned earlier, I am basing this partly on his behavior as well; even before the cop investigation, I said:

TheManHimself: Again, don't necessarally want to revive him right away becuase he's claimed roleblocker, but my gut's telling me he's probably pro-town. Don't really want to revive him before day 1, but probably will at some point later.

That dosn't mean I want to revive him before he posts today. If nothing else, an inactive roleblocker wouldn't help us tonight, so we've got to get him back in to the game or get him replaced if he's not going to play.

[Zindaras]

Now under this assumption, we revive the RB and there's a 50% chance that you die. We may know who scum is, but that won't do us a lot of good if we can't lynch him. If we revived the doc, then even if the doc would die first, we will know for sure that scum is alive, and we won't be risking your life w/o knowing if we have scum or not.

The RB isn't any more permament in the sense that he can die, just like the cop can. He would have to block the correct player, assuming we have scum, and also if he fails, there's a greater chance that you would die, rather than the player (RB or doc) who's trying to help protect you.

If the RB roleblocks the wrong one, we know who scum is, which is a pretty large advantage. Yes, we lose the Cop, but we also learn the Cop's sanity and thus know to what extent we can trust his results.

Reviving the RB is a win/win more situation. If he picks the wrong guy, we know who scum is and can RB him, finding more townies on the back of normal play. If he picks the right guy, we still have the Cop running around.

We really shouldn't focus on the Cop as be all and end all. We should have faith in our own town-catching abilities.