Open 465 - Wot's... Uh the Deal? (Game Over! Town Win!)

[Majiffy]

Vote Count

ProHawk (L-2): Adam-12

Not Voting: - Mantisdreamz, Guile, ProHawk, Leviathan93

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Day Three has begun. Deadline is Thursday, Jan 17th (I think?) at 3:00 PM EST

[Adam-12]

Well on Guille, again it comes back to his vote for Bork... I looked at it in order to condemn him but it struck me as a town move. I could expound on what I believe his motivations were but I suppose he should do that for himself.

[ProHawk]

Here is what bugs me about Guille:

I don't like how he brought up the whole Angel-night-kill thing. This makes me think he is scum trying to get everyone to think that he had no clue. It worked with Mantis. Other problem, he has been pretty much chilling out this whole game except for this game day. Now he is some kind of crusader who wants to make sure we maximize before LYLO. It smells like he is trying to make sure he looks super town going into tomorrow.

Can you help me with that, my reading comprehension has not been the best over the last two days...

Not sure what you aren't getting?

Guille's first post out of the gates was basically - remorse over making the wrong choice (lynching Thor) and why Angel? - Don't get me wrong I had the exact same thoughts, but I didn't make a whole post about it, I figured it out on my own. I just think the whole big post could have conveniently been contrived so that we wouldn't suspect that he caught on to Angels soft-claim. And now he is all over Mantis about not wanting to end the day early. This is certainly pro-town, but I didn't get that vibe from him before now.

[Adam-12]

Ok, I seriously don't even know what you are referring to -- its as if that post never even took place in my mind. Let me go look at it.

[Adam-12]

I'm here. Patience.

Man, I totally thought Thor was scum. And with Angel dead that completely scratches my plans. Here is the problem. I originally had a Lynch on Thor, Levi and Angel. By reason I should lynch Levi. But there is a reason I voted for Thor over Levi, and its primarily because of his hammer on Bork.

I need to review lots of things for this game though. This game has gotten a ton more complicated.

My first problem is "Why did Angel die?" Did she bread crumbed her power somewhere? Or was her kill just a way to avoid the unknown watcher.

@Mantis

did you track Angel at some point and realized she was the tracker?

So, I'm going to have to get into WIFOM territory now, My head is going to explode so it's a good thing I asked for vacation next week. Let me post this so that what I just said sinks in, while I redact the next post.

Ok, I'm town. (Whether you believe it or not) but I have to make that clear so that the following makes sense. When I get in this mode of typing I tend to ramble a lot and start typing anything that comes to my mind. Don't be surprised if my ideas change as I type, it's just my ideas evolving. This is my written thought process. I might need medical attention afterwards.

This sentence I write after I have written the following. It's just a heads up that the following led me to loops. My best conclusion is on the last two paragraphs, so, if you don't want to read this rambling post, at the very least read the last two paragraphs. And the following paragraphs two, they are golden. Also, I just read Prohawk's post, which dismantles what I was writing here.

We've got Mantis, Adam, Prohawk and Levi. One of them is scum. Mantis is town. Since the watcher is dead. Mantis is the best kill for tonight. So, the surviving party will consist of whoever we don't lynch of Adam, Prohawk, Guille and Levi.

I'm going to have to check yesterday's work but I need to find out who thought Angel was town. I personally thought that Scum was one of Thor, Levi and Angel. Prohawk thought it was one of Thor, Angel and himself. Correct me if I'm wrong but Adam had Hawk, Thor and Angel in his Lynch list. Levi was gunning at Guille, thor and potentially Hawk, although he was very clear that I was his go to guy, and thor was his option if I am town. This is consistent to his play today. Mantis has a Thor, Prohawk and angel. Since Thor was lynched and Angel died, i am going to ignore their scum reads for the time being, as this analysis is to see what scum thought to make his kill.

(Oh man, Adams ISO is divided in 3 pages, I've never seen that)

The big question is Angel dying. There are two possibilities given that She was in most everyone's hit list. 1) She hinted at her being the watcher, or she bread-crumbed it in some way. If she did, then she was the only option to lynch, and hope for the best. 2) She was a strategic kill. Strategic in that the watcher was not likely to watch her and other which I will go into detail next. #) It's possible that she was killed because her scum reads were quite limited. Basically just saying that Mantis was scum and then going for Thor at the end. This I take into consideration as a strategic kill. In the end there was nothing random of he kill. So I will use that as evidence. I need to ISO her for (1) but I doubt that she did. I will assume (2) and go from there.

Killing angel was a safe kill. Giving that the killer went after Mala Night 1, Mala being a safe kill. Then the motivation for killing Angel would be to stay away from the watcher. Things are improved if the killer is Adam or Hawk. Another option was killing Levi (If he is town). Angel was more in the sight of everyone than Levi. So this is confusing.

If Levi is scum. His best chance of survival was to Lynch one of Mantis, Guille, Hawk or Adam. There was a 1/4 probability of getting caught by the watcher. with a higher chance on Mantis. There was a very small chance that the watcher was targeting Angel. So killing her was a safe bet. Angel was likely a better target to lynch day 3 than himself, so risking the watcher seems like a better move. This assumes that Levi had no knowledge of Angel being the watcher. The Kill is not entirely compatible with Levi being scum. Plausible though.

If Adam is scum. Had he targeted Mantis, Guille or Hawk. His chances of being caught by the watcher were about the same as Levi's. However, Killing Levi or angel was a more strategic kill for him since they are likely not being watched. But why Angel and not Levi? He considered Levi town. He is going after Prohawk now, so I am assuming that if he is scum he expected a final clash between Levi, Him and Mantis/Hawk/me (whoever didn't claim watcher). He'd be stuck in a town-read Lylo. If I did not claim watcher and survived the day, Levi would vote for me for his Win. Had he gone for Levi, then it be Mantis/Angel/Prohawk/me and him. This seems like a better decision because, had Levi not been the watcher (from his POV not knowing), then the watcher would likely claim if it was Hawk or Angel, maybe Guille. The watcher claiming today, was a high probability. Since mantis thought that Adam was town and I was a potential scum, Mantis would have been more likely to vote for Angel/Hawk/guille than she was to vote for Adam. I notice that both situations count for him to give the vote to either Levi or Mantis. In the first scenario, if Hawk was the watcher, then the lynch would auto go to Levi, which will leave Mantis, Adam, and Me to LyLo. hrmmm. I got stuck in a loop. Ok, relax. Think like Adam:

Two options Kill Levi, or Angel. Whose the best option. everyone is opting to Lynch Angel. I am opting to Lynch Angel. If I kill Levi and Angel is the watcher, then I have to go to Prohawk because I can't vote for Guille. Samething otherwise if I kill Angel and Levi claims watcher. Regardless of who I kill, if I kill one of them and the watcher is hawk or Guille, they would likely not claim and I'd have to lynch the other option. I'm in a good position if the watcher is one of Levi and angel, and I end up killing the other.

This is compatible with last nights kill.

If Prohawk is scum. Remarkably, the thought process is pretty much the same as Adam's. It is also an indication that since they are both gunning for each other that they are attempting to keep Levi Alive. Had only one gone after the other, it would have been an indication that he was scum. But that didn't happen. Adam went first, but Hawk came with a definitive case on Adam, meaning that he had it planned ahead of time. Both had me and Levi as scum. And given that Levi will likely vote for me on LyLo, and they assumed that I would vote for Levi on LyLo. their best and only play is to Lynch Adam/Hawk depending on who is scum. It's also natural for the other to do the same as town. In the end it's a risky maneuver, because either one could get lynched. The odd one here is Levi. He knew that He was only at risk from me in this game. He could have killed me and risk getting caught by the Watcher. However, if Levi thought that I might reconsider if adam and Hawk go at eachother's throats, then maybe he could get Me Lynched. However, If he failed getting Guille Lynched, and one of hawk and Adam is lynched, then It's game over for him as he is likely the top lynch that day. So, his best bet was to Kill Guille at night rather than Angel and risk getting caught since success would mean an easier victory. No, He had no knowledge of Angel being the watcher, so Killing me would only be beneficial if angel was not the watcher and I was the watcher. If either Adam or Hawk is the watcher, then Killing Guille would be bad. 50% chance. It's also bad if Angel is the watcher and Levi kills Guille. So in the end, the best choice for Levi to Kill is Angel and hope for the best. Killing Adam and Hawk is out of the question since Guille will try convince the other to vote for Levi or angel (Because he is awesome).

Let me go around another route. Psychologically speaking. If scum did not know that Angel was the Watcher, then the kill was done to be safe from the watcher. Given that Mala was the target on night 1, then this is reaffirming that case, since Mala was the safest place to avoid a watcher. If the person is this careful, and this worried about the watcher, then busing Bork was not an intended outcome. The most compatible with this is Hawk. However, he pushed Levi to hammer Bork, which is counter intuitive. Had Prohawk and bork been both scum buddies. Then, I don't think Hawk would willingly pressure levi to Hammer. Else, he'd hammer himself and appear much better in the outset. Yeah, I think I can assume Prohawk is town.

Ok, I think I'm going to stop the ramblings. At the very least I just have to find one player out of Hawk, Adam and Levi to be town. The above was my entire thought process to get to the conclusion that I am going to pick Hawk as my top Town. Which means that I vow never to vote for him for the duration of this game. Adam is second due to him bringing up Bork's wagon for contention. I will need to confirm how that wagon appeared, but it seems that it was brought up by Mala and Mantis sheeped her. Levi is the only last option left really, and although he did hammer Bork. He was pressured to do so.

No Guille, she bread-loafed. She basically soft-claimed to Mantis.

Man, I totally wrote all that for nothing. Can you point out the soft claiming, I must have missed it. And can you tell me when did you figure it out?

My ramblings only get's me to one conclusion that prohawk is probably town. Not as certain as I was when I finished the post, because of 1919 and because Prohawk figured it out.

There is no way Mantis survives, as she is confirmed town

I actually expected her to survive. She was the prime target for the watcher. I wouldn't expect Angel to have watched her both nights.

Ok so here are the posts in one neat place so I can read them.

[ProHawk]

Ahh, sorry Adam, I should have quoted them for you.

[ProHawk]

Adam, what do you think about this?

Had Prohawk and bork been both scum buddies. Then, I don't think Hawk would willingly pressure levi to Hammer. Else, he'd hammer himself and appear much better in the outset. Yeah, I think I can assume Prohawk is town.

[Adam-12]

Man, I totally thought Thor was scum. And with Angel dead that completely scratches my plans.

Bemoaning both the mislynch & the NK.

@Mantis

did you track Angel at some point and realized she was the tracker?

I don't understand the relevance of this question; why ask it for no purpose?

The big question is Angel dying. There are two possibilities given that She was in most everyone's hit list. 1) She hinted at her being the watcher, or she bread-crumbed it in some way. If she did, then she was the only option to lynch, and hope for the best. 2) She was a strategic kill. Strategic in that the watcher was not likely to watch her and other which I will go into detail next. #) It's possible that she was killed because her scum reads were quite limited. Basically just saying that Mantis was scum and then going for Thor at the end. This I take into consideration as a strategic kill. In the end there was nothing random of he kill. So I will use that as evidence. I need to ISO her for (1) but I doubt that she did. I will assume (2) and go from there.

Killing angel was a safe kill. Giving that the killer went after Mala Night 1,

Mala being a safe kill

. Then the motivation for killing Angel would be to stay away from the watcher.

Things are improved if the killer is Adam or Hawk

. Another option was killing Levi (If he is town). Angel was more in the sight of everyone than Levi. So this is confusing.

This entire line of thinking is bizarre; totally focused on the NK. I don't understand the underlined; where is he getting this idea? The bolded is drawing a conclusion based on the NK which is scummy but what is missing is cases on either you or myself based on this.

No Guille, she bread-loafed. She basically soft-claimed to Mantis.

Man, I totally wrote all that for nothing. Can you point out the soft claiming, I must have missed it. And can you tell me when did you figure it out?

Ok so here you are saying it sounds manufactured?

One thing is that the NK does not necessarily even depend on whether the scum knew her role or not; that's why NK speculation is bad because it makes blind assumptions.

There is no way Mantis survives, as she is confirmed town

I actually expected her to survive. She was the prime target for the watcher. I wouldn't expect Angel to have watched her both nights.

This post clearly indicates that he had no idea she was the Tracker; his mindset is deeply imbued with the NK reasoning being to avoid being watched.

---

The first two quotes look like posturing and overall he seems obsessed with the NK.

What are your thoughts about these posts again?

[Adam-12]

Adam, what do you think about this?

Had Prohawk and bork been both scum buddies. Then, I don't think Hawk would willingly pressure levi to Hammer. Else, he'd hammer himself and appear much better in the outset. Yeah, I think I can assume Prohawk is town.

I think he was mistaken -- Levi had already said he was going to hammer and you pressuring him would be a subtle bus that would create the kind of mis-perception that he has stated here.

[ProHawk]

I hadn't actually thought about scum not needing to know about the soft-claim, but I still believe that it was the reason she died. I can see how it could have been a coincidence, but I doubt it. Heck, I was practically the only person who thought she was conf-town.

So my point about those posts are they sound manufactured to posture himself as town.

[Adam-12]

I think the bemoaning the lynch/NK with the NK suspicion could be posturing. I have to counter-weigh that with his vote for Bork which I didn't see as a bus at all.

As far as Angel, she was scummy all over the thread. So much that it made me seriously wonder about that town slip of Shrimp's.

The only thing I am certain of this game is that I have been consistently wrong on who the second scum is but based on actions of Levi & Guille in relation to Bork, I don't see how they can be scum.

[Mantisdreamz]

BUT if both of you are town THEN IT WOULD BE GUILLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

it's not guille!

[Mantisdreamz]

id love to shove it in your face about how wrong you are.

haha

[Mantisdreamz]

@Mantis: Ok, then if Hawk is not scum and we end up in LYLO with Hawk, Levi & Guille, what should the town do? That's what I am asking you because you need to be very clear on it.

Your choice of viewing Hawk's behavior and my own are one side of a coin that can easily be flipped.

But based on what you have been saying, let's assume that in LYLO it will either be Levi or Guille as scum -- see I totally disagree. I think you have glossed over a clear scum profile from Hawk. It really was your point about his frustration over the Mollie wagon that got me thinking about that and then he repeated it in D2.

You see Hawk that defended a town read and is calmly questioning and voting to catch scum, I see a Hawk who was frustrated over losing the Mollie wagon & was confident that his Mala lynch would go through and he would end the day. I further see his manipulation during D2 to survive it and engineer a Thor lynch and his denial of such manipulation (how is that calm?) further shows he is scum.

You realize this will be the end of the game if Hawk is scum because in LYLO he will manipulate a win right?

but you were also very adamant on seeing the mollie wagon through.

[leviathan93]

BUT if both of you are town THEN IT WOULD BE GUILLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

it's not guille!

and how are you so sure on that mantis? do you think its hawk? if we lynch adam and its not adam then who will you think is scum? because I promise you that its not me.

[Mantisdreamz]

BUT if both of you are town THEN IT WOULD BE GUILLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

it's not guille!

and how are you so sure on that mantis? do you think its hawk? if we lynch adam and its not adam then who will you think is scum? because I promise you that its not me.

to be honest, i think it's just Adam.

[leviathan93]

and ok then. but i am saying to you what if you are wrong? what is your back up plan and how will you deal with lynch or lose? if this is not necessary and it is adam then YAY!! but if he is town what then?

[leviathan93]

even though you will most likely die during the night if adam is town.

[Mantisdreamz]

and ok then. but i am saying to you what if you are wrong? what is your back up plan and how will you deal with lynch or lose? if this is not necessary and it is adam then YAY!! but if he is town what then?

I'll respond properly in the morning, just after 3am here. But pretty much I can't see hawk, guille or you, not being town.

[Adam-12]

@Mantis: Ok, then if Hawk is not scum and we end up in LYLO with Hawk, Levi & Guille, what should the town do? That's what I am asking you because you need to be very clear on it.

Your choice of viewing Hawk's behavior and my own are one side of a coin that can easily be flipped.

But based on what you have been saying, let's assume that in LYLO it will either be Levi or Guille as scum -- see I totally disagree. I think you have glossed over a clear scum profile from Hawk. It really was your point about his frustration over the Mollie wagon that got me thinking about that and then he repeated it in D2.

You see Hawk that defended a town read and is calmly questioning and voting to catch scum, I see a Hawk who was frustrated over losing the Mollie wagon & was confident that his Mala lynch would go through and he would end the day. I further see his manipulation during D2 to survive it and engineer a Thor lynch and his denial of such manipulation (how is that calm?) further shows he is scum.

You realize this will be the end of the game if Hawk is scum because in LYLO he will manipulate a win right?

but you were also very adamant on seeing the mollie wagon through.

Yes but that's not my point nor was it yours. Do you remember how exasperated he was and how he called for the hammer?

[Adam-12]

and ok then. but i am saying to you what if you are wrong? what is your back up plan and how will you deal with lynch or lose? if this is not necessary and it is adam then YAY!! but if he is town what then?

^^^ +town

[ProHawk]

Ok, I have my game-plan-B in case its wrong. Scum-bussed. Adam's position in the bus was the least risky-at-the-time-of-vote, topped with his play that matches his ideal scum-lord.

VOTE: Adam

[leviathan93]

and what is that plan B hawk? I think we should all be completely honest with exactly how we will play today and lynch or lose so it all goes very quickly. we know the possibilities already.

1. If adam is town and we lynch him then we still will have scum and mantis is the most likely one to die during the night. So that will make it hawk, levi, and guille. I am town. so the scum can only be hawk or guille. because you so adamantly think yourself town and i don't know if you are you will vote either me or guille. im thinking probably guille right now because honestly a lynch of me will end in town losing. if guille is really town and you are scum hawk then it wouldnt matter to you which one of us was lynched and the other of us will probably go with you. if you are town and guille is scum the he will probably vote you and I would sure as hell vote you and scum would win as well. that is why i would be caught in the middle of who was scum or not and be the deciding factor which i don't really know who I would choose. this is all thoughts if adam is town.

2. if we lynch hawk, and he is scum then we win. if he is town then adam is still in with me and guille. Again. I want everyones second back up plan and thoughts on the matter if they get to lynch or lose. adam will vote for guille if hawk is innocent. because he says I am innocent which I am. however, this COULD be a ploy to make it sure to say guille is guilty is hawk isn't and still keeping the noose from his own neck and I would have to believe him because I would always choose guille over adam. however, because im thinking like this I would really need to know that guille was town so we could just lynch adam and have a win for town. if guille turned out to be scum i basically told y'all so and would be frustrated as hell.

this being said. WE NEED EVERYONES BACK UP PLANS STATED! and if they lie and change it then we know who the true scum is. partially. scum will have to figure out a back up plan to that they can follow and still ensure a victory for themselves.

[Majiffy]

No, fuck you.

[Majiffy]

I'm not waiting.