Ok, I'm town. (Whether you believe it or not) but I have to make that clear so that the following makes sense. When I get in this mode of typing I tend to ramble a lot and start typing anything that comes to my mind. Don't be surprised if my ideas change as I type, it's just my ideas evolving. This is my written thought process. I might need medical attention afterwards.
This sentence I write after I have written the following. It's just a heads up that the following led me to loops. My best conclusion is on the last two paragraphs, so, if you don't want to read this rambling post, at the very least read the last two paragraphs. And the following paragraphs two, they are golden. Also, I just read Prohawk's post, which dismantles what I was writing here.
We've got Mantis, Adam, Prohawk and Levi. One of them is scum. Mantis is town. Since the watcher is dead. Mantis is the best kill for tonight. So, the surviving party will consist of whoever we don't lynch of Adam, Prohawk, Guille and Levi.
I'm going to have to check yesterday's work but I need to find out who thought Angel was town. I personally thought that Scum was one of Thor, Levi and Angel. Prohawk thought it was one of Thor, Angel and himself. Correct me if I'm wrong but Adam had Hawk, Thor and Angel in his Lynch list. Levi was gunning at Guille, thor and potentially Hawk, although he was very clear that I was his go to guy, and thor was his option if I am town. This is consistent to his play today. Mantis has a Thor, Prohawk and angel. Since Thor was lynched and Angel died, i am going to ignore their scum reads for the time being, as this analysis is to see what scum thought to make his kill.
(Oh man, Adams ISO is divided in 3 pages, I've never seen that)
The big question is Angel dying. There are two possibilities given that She was in most everyone's hit list. 1) She hinted at her being the watcher, or she bread-crumbed it in some way. If she did, then she was the only option to lynch, and hope for the best. 2) She was a strategic kill. Strategic in that the watcher was not likely to watch her and other which I will go into detail next. #) It's possible that she was killed because her scum reads were quite limited. Basically just saying that Mantis was scum and then going for Thor at the end. This I take into consideration as a strategic kill. In the end there was nothing random of he kill. So I will use that as evidence. I need to ISO her for (1) but I doubt that she did. I will assume (2) and go from there.
Killing angel was a safe kill. Giving that the killer went after Mala Night 1, Mala being a safe kill. Then the motivation for killing Angel would be to stay away from the watcher. Things are improved if the killer is Adam or Hawk. Another option was killing Levi (If he is town). Angel was more in the sight of everyone than Levi. So this is confusing.
If Levi is scum. His best chance of survival was to Lynch one of Mantis, Guille, Hawk or Adam. There was a 1/4 probability of getting caught by the watcher. with a higher chance on Mantis. There was a very small chance that the watcher was targeting Angel. So killing her was a safe bet. Angel was likely a better target to lynch day 3 than himself, so risking the watcher seems like a better move. This assumes that Levi had no knowledge of Angel being the watcher. The Kill is not entirely compatible with Levi being scum. Plausible though.
If Adam is scum. Had he targeted Mantis, Guille or Hawk. His chances of being caught by the watcher were about the same as Levi's. However, Killing Levi or angel was a more strategic kill for him since they are likely not being watched. But why Angel and not Levi? He considered Levi town. He is going after Prohawk now, so I am assuming that if he is scum he expected a final clash between Levi, Him and Mantis/Hawk/me (whoever didn't claim watcher). He'd be stuck in a town-read Lylo. If I did not claim watcher and survived the day, Levi would vote for me for his Win. Had he gone for Levi, then it be Mantis/Angel/Prohawk/me and him. This seems like a better decision because, had Levi not been the watcher (from his POV not knowing), then the watcher would likely claim if it was Hawk or Angel, maybe Guille. The watcher claiming today, was a high probability. Since mantis thought that Adam was town and I was a potential scum, Mantis would have been more likely to vote for Angel/Hawk/guille than she was to vote for Adam. I notice that both situations count for him to give the vote to either Levi or Mantis. In the first scenario, if Hawk was the watcher, then the lynch would auto go to Levi, which will leave Mantis, Adam, and Me to LyLo. hrmmm. I got stuck in a loop. Ok, relax. Think like Adam:
Two options Kill Levi, or Angel. Whose the best option. everyone is opting to Lynch Angel. I am opting to Lynch Angel. If I kill Levi and Angel is the watcher, then I have to go to Prohawk because I can't vote for Guille. Samething otherwise if I kill Angel and Levi claims watcher. Regardless of who I kill, if I kill one of them and the watcher is hawk or Guille, they would likely not claim and I'd have to lynch the other option. I'm in a good position if the watcher is one of Levi and angel, and I end up killing the other.
This is compatible with last nights kill.
If Prohawk is scum. Remarkably, the thought process is pretty much the same as Adam's. It is also an indication that since they are both gunning for each other that they are attempting to keep Levi Alive. Had only one gone after the other, it would have been an indication that he was scum. But that didn't happen. Adam went first, but Hawk came with a definitive case on Adam, meaning that he had it planned ahead of time. Both had me and Levi as scum. And given that Levi will likely vote for me on LyLo, and they assumed that I would vote for Levi on LyLo. their best and only play is to Lynch Adam/Hawk depending on who is scum. It's also natural for the other to do the same as town. In the end it's a risky maneuver, because either one could get lynched. The odd one here is Levi. He knew that He was only at risk from me in this game. He could have killed me and risk getting caught by the Watcher. However, if Levi thought that I might reconsider if adam and Hawk go at eachother's throats, then maybe he could get Me Lynched. However, If he failed getting Guille Lynched, and one of hawk and Adam is lynched, then It's game over for him as he is likely the top lynch that day. So, his best bet was to Kill Guille at night rather than Angel and risk getting caught since success would mean an easier victory. No, He had no knowledge of Angel being the watcher, so Killing me would only be beneficial if angel was not the watcher and I was the watcher. If either Adam or Hawk is the watcher, then Killing Guille would be bad. 50% chance. It's also bad if Angel is the watcher and Levi kills Guille. So in the end, the best choice for Levi to Kill is Angel and hope for the best. Killing Adam and Hawk is out of the question since Guille will try convince the other to vote for Levi or angel (Because he is awesome).
Let me go around another route. Psychologically speaking. If scum did not know that Angel was the Watcher, then the kill was done to be safe from the watcher. Given that Mala was the target on night 1, then this is reaffirming that case, since Mala was the safest place to avoid a watcher. If the person is this careful, and this worried about the watcher, then busing Bork was not an intended outcome. The most compatible with this is Hawk. However, he pushed Levi to hammer Bork, which is counter intuitive. Had Prohawk and bork been both scum buddies. Then, I don't think Hawk would willingly pressure levi to Hammer. Else, he'd hammer himself and appear much better in the outset. Yeah, I think I can assume Prohawk is town.
Ok, I think I'm going to stop the ramblings. At the very least I just have to find one player out of Hawk, Adam and Levi to be town. The above was my entire thought process to get to the conclusion that I am going to pick Hawk as my top Town. Which means that I vow never to vote for him for the duration of this game. Adam is second due to him bringing up Bork's wagon for contention. I will need to confirm how that wagon appeared, but it seems that it was brought up by Mala and Mantis sheeped her. Levi is the only last option left really, and although he did hammer Bork. He was pressured to do so.
