Mini #381-Werewolf: Cancelled

[Rathyr]

You're right.

The watchman, if successful in his watch, will only find the identity of one wolf.

[Elias_the_thief]

hello all. Sucks we're missing a watchman already. and i definately dont agree with a watchmen claim in any day 1 situation.

random vote: jack

[Atticus]

Unvote; Vote: Elias_the_thief

He's obviously buddying up to the town with that post.

And Lowell, just because the masons coming out in #358 was a good idea, it doesn't mean that it'll do us any good now. I can see where your misdirection is coming from though.

So, yes, I think it is a scummy comment, but no, Lowell is not scummy to me.

[StallingChamp]

checking in.

Random vote: Atticus

.

Although i do not like the role-claim theory, I see why he might have said that, so i will not count it as major for mow.

[Echo419]

Atticus, there was a metagame precedent? That certainly puts his post in a new light. I haven't read 358. What happened?

[conflux]

It's not smart for the watchman to claim. I thought in the beginning for someone to claim Herbalist and have the Watchmen guard him, essentially making it hard for the wolves, but that's obsolete now with one watch dead.

[Atticus]

In 358, mikanoff and Lowell were masons. When Lowell felt he was near death, he claimed and outed his mason partner. This gave the town a pretty large advantage.

However, it's just my assumption that he felt it would be a good idea here

because

of that.

[Lowell]

In 358, mikanoff and Lowell were masons. When Lowell felt he was near death, he claimed and outed his mason partner. This gave the town a pretty large advantage.

However, it's just my assumption that he felt it would be a good idea here because of that.

That's right. The game is still going, if you're interested in seeing how it has played out. With about seven people left I'm the only confirmed innocent, and I think it does give the town a distinct advantage. Keeping the masons secret totally destroys any advantages of the position.

Again, here the situation is different, since we essentially have no masons anymore. Instead, this is more of a DOC/COP combination, which in my opinion is an even better time to come out. I've been told that they had to change the style of the newbie games (to 50% doc and 50% cop) because this "claim and protect" strategy was too effective.

Hmm here's the way I see it though. Werewolves choose from 8 players. They have a 1/4 chance of killing a player with a power role. If watchman claims, they have a 1/7 chance. Isn't that fairly significant?

This is exactly the right logic behind the move. The werewolves have a 14% chance of finding a power role as opposed to a 25% chance. Oh, and

UNVOTE

. Not only that, they have ZERO chance of getting the remaining COP role. What good would our herbalist be if that happened?

[Lowell]

hello all. Sucks we're missing a watchman already. and i definately dont agree with a watchmen claim in any day 1 situation.

Vote Elias

Think it through a little more, then.

[Rathyr]

The "I can't be bothered to think of a name" vote count

Lowell (2) -

Coolbot, Echo419

Jack (1) -

Elias_the_thief

Coolbot (1) -

conflux

Elias_the_thief (2) -

Atticus, Lowell

Atticus (1) -

StallingChamp

With eleven alive it will take six votes to lynch.

[CoolBot]

The herbelist is good not only for being able to protect the cop, but also for stopping night kills. If the cop comes out, that no night kills will be blocked because the mafia will stay away from that man until the doc is dead.

Claiming when under pressure and claiming first thing on the first day are two entirely different things. Mason's are powerful bacause they can confirm each other, but there's no reason to do so early on. In fact, it lowers the chances of counter claiming a scum claim.

I've been told that they had to change the style of the newbie games (to 50% doc and 50% cop) because this "claim and protect" strategy was too effective.

I've never played a newbie game, but I think part of the issue was the games were so small. The mafia were half the unclaimed, so it was easy to find them. That's not the case here.

[Elias_the_thief]

hello all. Sucks we're missing a watchman already. and i definately dont agree with a watchmen claim in any day 1 situation.

Vote Elias

Think it through a little more, then.

I don't think having the watchmen outed that early is a good idea. Especially not with one dead already. How exactly would one guy claiming watchmen day 1 help town? I dont see much advantage there at all.

[Green Crayons]

Lowell, could you do me a favor and explain more than you have given as to why you decided to vote Elias? As it currently stands, it appears to me that you're voting him because he doesn't agree with the Watchman claiming on Day One. But then again, there are others who have been more vocal against such a turn of events - Coolbot and myself come to mind, specifically. I'm curious as to why you picked him out.

vote: nothing, I was going to randomly vote but I want to see what Lowell has to say.

I think more than enough has been said on the matter for you to get a general gist on where everyone stands (and nothing all that substantive has been offered, which is what I personally was expecting from said discussion, so I don't know why you were holding back a random vote at the time unless if you were purposefully attempting to look like you didn't want to rush things - but I don't want to start getting WIFOM, so.. I digress...), so I'm not quite sure why you're still holding back in the wings.

Unvote: Atticus

, since it's not even being tallied, and

vote: trabony

. Speak. Vote. Do something worthwhile.

[Jack]

Well, Elias doesn't give a reason, he just states his opinion repeatedly. Coolbot states why he disagrees, although I don't see why a small chance at preventing a kill is better than a smaller chance at ID'ing a killer.

[CoolBot]

Preventing a kill makes the game longer, making it more likely the town finds scum. What's the confusion?

[Jack]

Wouldn't the doc have to prevent 2 kills to make the game longer?

We have 11 now. So the progression with no prevention would be 11-9-7-5 (lynch or lose). With one kill prevention it would be something like 11-9-8-6 (lynch or lose). Not terribly advantageous.

[Echo419]

I think letting the doc and watchman make their own decisions is better. I mean, outing the watchman cuts down on possibly docs for scum. So now we have 11. Minus the two scum is 9. Minus the watchman is 8. So that's 1/8 chance of scum to hit doc at night, and it goes down by 2 every cycle, from lynch and kill. Without the watchman out, scum has 2/11 chance to hit power role, but watchman has 1/10 chance to get scum and doc has 1/10 chance to protect. I like those odds better.
I think we might be putting too much emphasis on the watchman. He has only 50%, true? He might be more useful in late game, when there is a greater chance of targeting the scum target. So in this case also he should be kept alive and hidden.

[trabony]

I am present in this game. i will now read over the thread and make a post!

[Atticus]

Unvote: Atticus

, since it's not even being tallied, and

vote: trabony

. Speak. Vote. Do something worthwhile.

Yes, that's interesting. Maybe I'm like SUPERMAAAN!!!

ON a non-joking note, I like how this game has jumped fast from start to actual processing of good information. We are on the bus with this already, a very scarce random-vote stage... Instant swaction!

All the attention seems to be based around Lowell's supposition of the watchman coming out being a good idea. Though, I feel much more interested in Elias. He clearly

addressed

Lowell's "think it through" but obviously didn't think it through. I dunno, I feel... intrigued.

And also, anyone who hasn't posted is always a good subject to pick on early on.

[Rathyr]

All votes must

be bolded.

[StallingChamp]

I definatively agree with the Watchman not revealing himself. Nothing good will come of it, and it will handicap the doctor to have to protect him. I do think that the watchmen should come forwards as soon as he gets a guilty result.

[Atticus]

MOD:

This was posted just before your first votecount, a minute before.

Vote: Atticus

. Last to confirm.

This is what Green Crayons is referring too.

It was not counted for that and the next votecount.

And StallingChamp, Could you have a little opinion, other than the exact same as everyone else?

[Rathyr]

Ah, sorry.

[StallingChamp]

Jack has really given me pro-town vibes from his posts. Coolbot also seems likely to be town.

At this point, I think it is warranted to let everybody know that I am scum. Do not lynch me and I will send in a no-kill every night.

[Jack]

Vote:StallingChamp

Whatever man, that last sentence doesn't even make sense. Are you going to dick around like last game?