Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Legacy (Game Over)

PeregrineV · Post Post #3600 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:48 am

In post 3591, zabriel wrote:PV - AP and Aco are town. If no scum are off my wagon that would be the rest of the team I think. Off my wagon I'm fairly certain that Nero and Mastin are town. I'm wavering on the rest. I'm willing to vote for either MoI or Yates today. I'm not really sure I understand the case for scum-messenger. What am I missing?

I explained above-hope that helps.

Prior to an actual counterwagon to you springing up, can you please vote for who you think it scum, so we can have it on record?

mastin2 · Post Post #3601 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:48 am

In post 3588, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mykonian is the messenger.

Confirming this. He told me in his N3 message. His N2 message did heavily imply as much, but he was under the impression his name was sent with the message--it isn't; the messages are anonymous and he had to put his name in the N3 PM.

I can also confirm that this is his style of wording in the PM; a stream-of-consciousness line of thoughts giving scumreads. (This is one of the reasons I was laughing so heavily when AP made the accusation about myk and I sharing a quicktopic--in a sense, we actually

were

.

)

N3 he said he didn't trust Thor and that the El wagon was weird. Said town was at large doing nothing. He was afraid that if he claimed, AP/pidgey/MoI would use it as leverage to lynch him.

N2 he said that he sent the message to Tammy (again, he was under the mistaken impression his name was automatically included), saying it was a bad choice in hindsight but that he liked Tammy's reads d1. Said scum could be on either side of the Tammy wagon, but was seriously suspicious of those saying it was a clear-cut choice. He said that he thought I was going in the right direction (this is one of the main reasons I was hyper-aggressive D3, because I had the messenger's encouragement to be so), and said that {Yates, snifit, Nero, zabriel, acosmist, Jason, kise} were flying under the radar. He was particularly suspicious of Kise, and dismissed Nero (V/LA), aco (claim), and snifit (meta).

That's a pretty fair paraphrase of the PMs.

Kise · Post Post #3602 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:25 am

Like I said, messenger is scum.

mastin2 · Post Post #3603 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:43 am

Starting my VCA now, I'd like to say that I've caught onto a potential trend, which might suggest a zabriel-jason pairing. I found that jason's wagon collapsing didn't look too good. Both AV and zabriel switched off between votecounts 2 and 3 (on 3, the jason wagon is gone, except one stray vote).

mastin2 · Post Post #3604 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:46 am

Should also be noted--jason's counterwagon was Yates, and that wagon also collapsed, between 3 and 4, with Khan hopping off of it.

mastin2 · Post Post #3605 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:48 am

Forgot to clarify--jason had three total counterwagons: Yates, RC, and BC.
RC and BC were both town. The BC counterwagon in particular looks pretty bad; it has myk, Yates, and AP on it. (Well, their slots, anyway.)

mastin2 · Post Post #3606 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:17 am

I found a VERY important little fact between votecounts 13/14 and 15:

A flash-wagon on Cyber appears, as a counter to both the AP wagon (which had ThAd jump ship off and jason jump on) and...the zabriel wagon, which has died completely, with Jason, Khan, and

BC

ALL having gone to the other wagons. In other words, zabriel went from being lynch candidate #2 (behind AP, lynch candidate #1) to...completely off the radar, with the AP/Cyber/Melmond wagons all stronger than the zabriel wagon.

So right now, I'm putting heavy emphasis on Zabriel, Jason, and Khan, with an outside chance of Yates.

zabriel · Post Post #3607 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:30 am

Okay, I think I understand messenger a little better now, which is making Kise's insistence that Messenger is scum a little weird to me.

VOTE: MoI

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #3608 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:31 am

In post 3607, zabriel wrote:Okay, I think I understand messenger a little better now, which is making Kise's insistence that Messenger is scum a little weird to me.

VOTE: MoI

Lol cheeky scum.

mykonian · Post Post #3609 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:44 am

I can confirm everything said, with the additional note that it was heavily implied that people would talk about nero and me. I believe nero to be town, so such discussion wouldn't lead to anything and it would detract from real scumhunting. I would have to have a very good reason in any case to sacrifice myself anywhere. In this case, it would have thrown away a lynch if mastin was wrong about acosmist. I don't think that's a good trade. Don't be so fucking lazy. Acosmist is going to stay around regardless, at some point you count what's in favour of him and what's against him, and you vote accordingly. It's called scumhunting. If you think he's scum, you lynch him. You don't send some powerrole at him to check if perhaps you are wrong.

and yeah, kise is pretty happy with this, of course. A throwaway statement that the messenger is scum (which has nothing to do with scumhunting) happened to fall on the wagon he's pushing. Because, why again kise? Anyway, he's in luck. All he has to say is "see, I told you!". And be done with it. Noone is going to ask what he had said or why he was pushing the wagon. All he's telling is everything came together and he's happy.

jasonT1981 · Post Post #3610 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 10:09 am

lynched be needed on Zab. He can't get through the nooses at the last minute again. It would be haunting if he did/

mastin2 · Post Post #3611 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 10:43 am

IMPORTANT NOTICE:

Khan was on the Tammy lynch for some amount of time.

I had completely forgotten about this little fact, so it's definitely worth investigating.

(When I finish with coding the VCs which comes with a little A from time to time, I'll probably post 'em all in here once I replace the coding from html to bbcode, for more easy access to detailed analysis. I can pick up on some trends by looking at the VCs while coding, but most of my better analysis is done when I've already coded 'em all and can easily identify wagons on town and wagons with town on 'em.)

mykonian · Post Post #3612 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 10:44 am

In post 3610, jasonT1981 wrote:lynched be needed on Zab. He can't get through the nooses at the last minute again. It would be haunting if he did/

I like people to analyse this post really well, lets quote it.

mastin2 · Post Post #3613 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:27 am

Spoiler: Day One

Spoiler: Day Two

Spoiler: Day Three

Spoiler: Day Four

mastin2 · Post Post #3614 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:35 am

"What does this VCA tell you, Mastin?"

By itself? Preeetty much nothing yet.

Without a Zab flip, there's not much to be gained from it other than two more names (zab and whoever dies tonight) being put in.

"Then what was the point?"

It highlighted some extremely concerning trends--Zabriel has strong ties to Khan, Yates, and Jason, with a minor tie to Kise.

You're free to analyze it more than I have, but for the moment, I think it's given me everything it's got to give until I look into the context of the trends I've found there.

jasonT1981 · Post Post #3615 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:42 am

In post 3614, mastin2 wrote:"What does this VCA tell you, Mastin?"

By itself? Preeetty much nothing yet.

Without a Zab flip, there's not much to be gained from it other than two more names (zab and whoever dies tonight) being put in.

"Then what was the point?"

It highlighted some extremely concerning trends--Zabriel has strong ties to Khan, Yates, and Jason, with a minor tie to Kise.

There was talk earlier about a Zab flip linking ties to Acos. Day 1 I believe it was through Zab defending him.

Nero Cain · Post Post #3616 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:57 am

In post 3478, AngryPidgeon wrote:Nero, thoughts on the Zab wagon not going through?

MOI never ever ever agrees with me so its prob a town slot that scum MOI is pushing. Or he could be bussing his buddy wich is something I brought up in the qt last night.

@ACO

Why are you not voting MOI?

In post 3503, Kublai Khan wrote:Why is Nero Cain a townread? How does his claim make sense?

If you are town then you are terrible. Something I was going to bring up later is that my role was already outted as "instant" when Tammy said she talked to me durring n1. How could I have talked to her if it wasn't? Why did neither you or Kise call bullshit on my role then? Why did it take MOI to call my roll into question before you two did? I already asked Kise but he's scum so that’s why he ignored me.

In post 3518, Kublai Khan wrote:Town instantaneous neighborizer in a game with a Mafia Roleblocker DOES NOT MAKE SENSE.

HE'S DEAD YOU SCUM TOOL!!!

In post 3524, mastin2 wrote:Do you still think the messenger is town? VERY important question, considering I explicitly told the messenger to target Aco and that there'd be no excuses for them having not done so

IDK. He could be coasting off the “town Nero didn’t target Aco so I’m town too ‘cause I didn’t target aco.” Though he’s not the lynch for the day. And I HATE HATE HATE this chain lynch logic (from AP and Kise) that one of us must be scum.

In post 3541, mastin2 wrote:Zab's getting lynched. Period, end of discussion.

?????????

Imma have to disagree. Certianly he's better than a no lynch but there are some lynches I'd perfer over him.

mastin2 · Post Post #3617 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:01 pm

Nero, it's precisely BECAUSE OF the no-lynch that he has to be lynched. Town, scum, the no-lynch on him was very bad, and if he were to be town, we'd be coming back every single day until he was dead. (Gee, this'd be a great time for a dayvig, now, wouldn't it, MoI?

)

Acosmist · Post Post #3618 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:20 pm

we never had a dayvig, dude. Did you miss like, all of day 2?

AngryPidgeon · Post Post #3619 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:22 pm

^ I lol'd.

Nero, you insisted KK was townish yesterday. What changed?

Nero Cain · Post Post #3620 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:23 pm

dayvig/daysk, same purpose.

Why are you not voting MOI?

Nero Cain · Post Post #3621 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:28 pm

In post 3571, pidgey wrote:Mastin/Nero- I think you both are town. Are you confident that you both are town? Seems mastin is, not sure about nero.

Meh. I’m always pretty paranoid. Mastin coming in the game and being all “Nero is a good scumhunter blah blah” is a bit thick. And I don’t like a few of his stances but I think I’m willing to let him ride the town wagon for now.

In post 3589, AngryPidgeon wrote:
MoI, this ain't you
. I realize this game is pissing you off and you are really
obvtown
for that. But there are
persepctives in this game that aren't yours
.[/.

The hell is this crap? You don’t think MOI is playing like usual but his “anger” is obvtown? Maybe it’s just me but this looks a lot like fence sitting.

In post 3617, mastin2 wrote:Nero, it's precisely BECAUSE OF the no-lynch that he has to be lynched. Town, scum, the no-lynch on him was very bad, and if he were to be town, we'd be coming back every single day until he was dead.

OH NOES WE LOST A DAY OF VCA!!!! It’s not the end of the world. I could see where it could be helpful. And yeah if he’s town then scum could just ride on Zab hate until he’s lynched.

SO WHY DID YOU TELL ME THAT YOU WANTED A kk lynch and voted KK TODAY but now have the stance that ZAB UST GO TODAY?

In post 3619, AngryPidgeon wrote:Nero, you insisted KK was townish yesterday. What changed?

Him continuing to be dumb but I'd still lynch like MOI, kISE, YOU BEFORE HIM.

mastin2 · Post Post #3622 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:39 pm

Nero wrote:SO WHY DID YOU TELL ME THAT YOU WANTED A kk lynch and voted KK TODAY but now have the stance that ZAB UST GO TODAY?

My vote's still on Khan for a reason.

I want a KK lynch, but I don't think that we can ever get that kind of support today. Realistically, there's nobody else we'll ever be able to get a lynch on. KK? Nope. Kise? Better shot, but still no. MoI? Nope. Jason? Pretty decent, but still would fall short. Yates? I wish, but nope. AP? Not going to happen for quite some time, least of all today. Myk? Sadly the most likely, but I don't currently think he's scum, so I'd rather not.

Plus, a zab flip gives a ton of info.

Do I want zab speedlynched, no; I'm doing analysis today, to try and get stronger reads. Do I think anyone other than zab will be lynched today? Also no; there's just not enough support, and thanks to the no-lynch, it's not the best idea anyways. Is he the best lynch in the game? If I finish my analysis, the answer might change, but with what I've currently got, the answer is going to be "yes". Is he the best lynch of all time, heck no; the lynch is upper-mediocre in terms of value.

AngryPidgeon · Post Post #3623 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:51 pm

In post 3621, Nero Cain wrote:he hell is this crap? You don’t think MOI is playing like usual but his “anger” is obvtown? Maybe it’s just me but this looks a lot like fence sitting.

fence sitting? I don't think Ive wavered in like 3 Days of calling MoI town.

Ive never seen him get this pissed before. But his rage is prob from town. If hes scum, hes doing a really excellent job of faking emotions. I dont really make meta cases often; when I say 'this isn't him', I mean I wish he would put effort in Today.

pappums rat · Post Post #3624 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:53 pm