Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over

[pappums rat]

Smashbard, you had no protown reason for voting Hiraki. TBM is our best bet at scum. Vote him please.

[buldermar]

At least with this lynch we can lose and Buldermar can eat fucking crow for being more retarded than a short bus full of extinguishers.

I'm not the one voting Hiraki, so if hira flips town, you're the one to blame once again.

[buldermar]

That's not how statistics work, braj. If you flip a coin 5 times and it comes up tails 5 times, the next time you flip it it still has a 50/50 chance of going either way.

For a second I thought you were TBM and I was wondering why you'd write something this retarded. Then I realized it's you.

Your example is not an analogy because in this example, you know the default chance of a coin flipping tails (50%) and so you can assert that the chance is not influenced by previous results. That doesn't apply here because a) we do not know the true odds and b) he does not make decisions at random.

If you want an analogy, think of a fixed dice. At first glance it may look balanced, but in reality the fact that it rolled 6-6-3-2-6-1-5-6-6-2 is

because

it's fixed. In other words, one can rightfully and more accurately calculate the odds of it rolling a 6 based on this sample rather than assuming that it's balanced.

[buldermar]

And as has been pointed out, your reads have been equally shitty since you have not gotten any scum lynched either.

This is incorrect because people have not been willing to lynch who I've wanted to lynch with the one exception of Shinori. That means I've had to pick 2nd or 3rd priorities or, in the case of CE, simply not be on the wagon.

[buldermar]

Actually Maenara is another exception.

[buldermar]

Smashbard is right though in that you and TBM are trying to discredit the only confirmed town we have in this game, which is 100% scum motivated

The fact that he's the only confirmed town is utterly unrelated to the fact that he does not make optimal decisions. I'm discrediting his decisions, not his alignment. Get that into your head and stop wrongfully concluding that motives would have to be scummy. Correcting you is becoming tedious.

[buldermar]

and him claiming that everyone not needing to claim when we are in LYLO is fucking stupid as shit. There is nothing to gain from not massclaiming, and on the off chance we do have a power role, scum could possibly claim that power role and be counter claimed.

It becomes a WIFOM scenario - there is nothing to gain from it.

[buldermar]

I'm VT, now stop wasting time on it.

[buldermar]

Why are they retarded? Explain please.

Because they're based on the assumption that no town would hammer so far from deadline.

[buldermar]

Ok I have a townread on pappums.

[buldermar]

Alright I'll support a TBM lynch. If he flips scum we lynch Dividizzle next. He wasn't quickhammered which should skew his alignment towards scum plus I think scum would be all over the quickhammer he did if it wasn't because he's their partner.

VOTE: TBM

[buldermar]

Awesome!

Conf Town: Smashbeard, Divdizzle, TBM.
Super Town: Buldermar.
Not Looking Too Good: Pappums
Conf Scum: Numbers, Hikari.

Lynch the bottom 3. GG

You forgot a player. Lazy-scum-slip or do you have some reasonable excuse?

[TheButtonmen]

They are true neutral.

[TheButtonmen]

I think scum would be all over the quickhammer he did if it wasn't because he's their partner.

@mod

hiraki did not post for over 5 days. Please prod.

Notice the lack of quick hammer eh?

Hnnn?

[buldermar]

I think scum would be all over the quickhammer he did if it wasn't because he's their partner.

@mod

hiraki did not post for over 5 days. Please prod.

Notice the lack of quick hammer eh?

Hnnn?

Yes but I don't buy that it means Hiraki=scum.

[buldermar]

Smashtard can we please lynch divi next should the unlikely event happen that TBM flips scum?

[mykonian]

votecount

thebuttonmen (3): 10506670, pappums rat, buldermar
buldermar (1): NJAC
hiraki (1): Thebuttonmen

not voting (3): dividizzle, hiraki, smashbard

With 8 players it is 5 to lynch (4 to no lynch)

deadline is november the fifteenth

[Smashbard]

Well Buldermar I really want to make a truce with you here because I don't want to leave this game with you or I having a bad taste in each others mouths when it comes to our future interactions.

I feel your logic behind my credibility is fundamentally flawed, as we have all made mistakes with out lynches. I think if we are both speaking rationally and logically you can agree that every single lynch so far this game was performed against people who were acting anti town and refusing to properly defend themselves or contribute meaningfully to scumhunting as a whole.

So rationally speaking my logic has not been flawed, but rather we have all been victims of a game where the majority of the playerbase were all newer players who didn't have a firm grasp on what it means to be pro town. Even Enigma, the one lynch you have truly opposed this game that went through, was not contributing positively anymore to a town win condition.

I think if we can come to that much of an agreement, regardless of your alignment, I can apologize for my own misgivings and bad attitude thus far this game. Even if we are doomed to lose this game, I don't want you to think negatively of me as a person, and I don't want to think of you as any lesser of a person either. As players you may have no respect for me, and that's fine I suppose. But I feel as if our recent attacks on each other have gotten far too personal, and if we both want a town victory, we should cool our jets and see what reads we can agree on, rather than just harping on each other on what we disagree on.

Deal?

[Smashbard]

I don't think Thebuttonmen is an optimal lynch today, as my main case on him was based on emotion due to Buldermar and TBM spending more time tearing down my reputation than actually scumhunting. TBM very well could be scum, but my read cannot be objective due to my emotional interactions with him. So I cannot say with certainty that lynching TBM is an objectively protown thing to do at this time.

I think Maenara would want us to lynch Dividizzle, or at least give him another objective look and try to see what it was that Maenara saw in Dividizzles possibility of being scum. So I think that's where we should look.

If TBM wants to be stuck on a Hiraki lynch and refuses to elaborate on why we should lynch him, then I say we leave him be. We only need 5 of the 8 players alive to come together for a lynch. And I'm sure if given the opportunity two of the scum will buss a partner if need be to gain towncred. So we can theoretically do this without him. If he doesn't want to help, that's on him. But if he's town aligned he'll turn around and try to strengthen his case on Hiraki.

[TheButtonmen]

Dude, the case on Hikari is strong as hell.

I have literally no idea what you're on about, I've played over fifteen games of mafia here on MS and this is one of the better lynch rationals I've seen.

[TheButtonmen]

Like shit I've actually no idea what you're derping over the case for, it's rock solid.

[Smashbard]

Man, I just don't even know what to say to you. I actually like your style, it's admirable. But damn man, I've read and reread your ISO trying to find out why you think your case is so rock solid, when your only point against Hiraki is that Maenara said he was at L-1, there was a vote count and then Hiraki said Maenara was bad at counting, and then said "welp you got me". The same passive aggressive crap he's thrown my way every time I tried to point out his logical fallacies Day 1 and Day 2.

How. EXPLAIN to me why this is such a rock solid case. WHY is it a scumtell so great that you've tunneled him for weeks. WHY is this any different from the accusations against Shinori and Maenara of them not reading the thread and coming up town.

These are questions you need to answer if you have hope of getting me permanently on your side here. I want to trust you, because of your early game enthusiasm trying to coach people to be more concise and what it means to be protown. All I'm asking for is a little olive branch here to explain yourself a little further so that those of us who don't see this as such an obvscum tell can understand where you are coming from.

[TheButtonmen]

Hikari isn't reading the game and is just riding lynched into the ground.

Literally.

Not.

Reading.

The.

Game.

[TheButtonmen]

It's harder to act more scum then this exchange.

Notice he just dismisses it and still keeping riding the Mae lynch.

[TheButtonmen]

The same passive aggressive crap he's thrown my way every time I tried to point out his logical fallacies Day 1 and Day 2.

And how exactly did letting him slide and following his guide on lynchs work out?

You lynch scumfucks who do this not let them coast.