Mini 373: DOOMsville - Ruined Beyond Repair

[Mert]

/confirm

[Mert]

Random vote: Boo

[Mert]

Pretty happy with my vote on Boo at the moment, though I'm looking at Romanus as well for saying Nightfall pushed for the Birdwagon. From where I'm sitting, it looks like

he

was the one that tried to get it rolling properly.

[Mert]

The reason that statement by Nightfall was at least a little scummy is that an OMGUS vote has no reason beyond that. You're voting for someone that attacked/voted for you . Almost like asking for a justification for a random vote. It also seemed that he was really trying to give a little credence to a completely contrived wagon.

Sorry, I thought you meant his "he'll give me reason soon enough" post was the one advocating the wagon, not his "reason for OMGUS" post. My bad.

[Mert]

Yes I asked for justification on a vote on Jerry, NOT a vote "on the wagoned player" (bird).

Yes, but by asking for clarification on why Bird OMGUSvoted, you are implying that he did something unbecoming of a protown player - if it was obviously a protown move then there would be no reason to question it. By asking for clarification and, by association, asserting that his OMGUS vote could be suspicious, you are advocating the wagon on Bird by giving credence to the idea that he might be scummy.

I similarly don't agree that an OMGUS vote requires justification at such an early stage. It can be a scumtell in later stages of the game in that it could be some kind of diversionary tactic or similar but I find that OMGUS votes in the random voting phase of a game are entirely common and don't often imply alignment. Methinks you're trying too hard to attribute false scumtells onto something which doesn't really have any.

Unvote, vote Nightfall

[Mert]

Vote: Wacky

i like huck's logic

Or: "oh yeah, I

knew

I was meant to OMGUS vote Wacky. Thanks for reminding me, Huck!"

FOS: Boo

[Mert]

FOS Mert

What makes you think that?

He didn't find Wacky suspicious before and then when someone points out a reason s/he might be he jumps on with nothing more than an "I agree".

He's been wagonhopping a lot with very little explanation. Of the three votes he's made so far, two have been on the person that most recently voted for him and one was an unexplained wagonhop.

[Mert]

Do we not think that it was a little early to force someone into a claim?

Well I didn't think anyone particularly asked for a claim, but I do agree that five votes based on no real evidence was a bit extreme.

[Mert]

[quote="Boo"]lynching a vanilla townie is better than doing a random lynch on someone who could be useful to the town. 4 or so scum means 1/3 odds of a random lynch being scum. ~4 pro town roles mean 1/3 of lynching a useful player.[/quote

Well yes, it's better than a

random

lynch, but who's to say we can't find scum on Day One? Whomsoever we lynch today won't be truly random, surely? It'll be based on who appears scummiest. I agree, there is every chance Wacky is lying but we should still be analysing everyone to see who looks scummiest rather than rushing in and lynching the first person who claims vanilla.

Actually, I tell you what might help clarify things for me: do you think Wacky is scum or vanilla townie? Please give reasons for whichever you choose.

In the meantime

Vote: Boo

.

[Mert]

It's your try reluctance to

try

that worries me, though. It may be the case that we don't have any information to go on in Day One and we will have to look for scum, but thinking to the future - do you think it's better to quickly lynch Wacky just because we won't be losing much or would it be better to see how people interact with one another so that when we get the information on Wacky's alignment we can start looking at partners etc?

[Mert]

Mert dont you think that If Wacky or Boo would be with mafia they wouldn't act way they do at this moment?

"Your Honour, I'd like to plead WIFOM..."

[Mert]

Seems a few people are being extra cautious with regard to getting SJ to speak. If he is actively lurking then he needs a little more pressure than a couple of FOSes.

Unvote, Vote: Sailor Jerry

Pending more substantial contribution.

[Mert]

Unvote

. No reason not to believe him, though I think his claim might have been slightly premature.

[Mert]

Whoa there, brodeo. Did you honestly think that such a heinous misrepresentation of the facts would go uncontested?

Let's have a quick look at the wagons to date.

Wagon 1: bird1111

1. Sailor Jerry (random vote) [22]
2. Nightfall ("Why? I dunno... He'll likely give me reason soon enough...") [25]
3. Romanus ("There's just something about a wagon") [26]
4. Boo ("bandwagon yay") [42]

Wagon 2: Boo

1. Mert (random vote) [21]
2. Jack ("bandwagon yay") [43]
3. Eon ("bandwagon is indeed interesting") [50]
4. bird1111 ("How am I clearly scum?") [52]

Mert unvotes [65]

5. Wacky ("The other two wagons just don't look too appealing to me") [75]

Wagon 3: Wacky

1. HackerHuck ("for acting rather wacky") [77]
2. Lowell ("I'm not clear why he "has to choose a wagon."") [83]
3. Boo ("i like huck's logic") [85]
4. slaking_master ("Wacky's actions are a pretty good backing for a day 1 vote") [86]
5. bird1111 ("after seeing what Hacker has said about Wacky, he seems like a better lynch than Boo") [89]

Wacky claims vanilla without being directly asked to claim [94]

Wagon 4: Sailor Jerry

1. Lowell ("SJ is all sorts of lurking in plain sight.") [112]
2. bird1111 ("He hasn't contributed anything really") [114]
3. Mert ("If he is actively lurking then he needs a little more pressure") [116]
4. Jack ("4 votes should be enough pressure") [117]
5. Eon ("He didnt reply, well fine be me") [120]

Sailor Jerry claims cop without being directly asked to claim [124]

And now a quick look at what you posted:

FOS : Mert

Has joined all 3 close to lynch bandwagons as the last person on, forcing two of three to claim. Not sure if its more scummy than cautious but it's the best I got right now.

- I've only been on two wagons so far and one was in the form of a random vote. I didn't move it, true, but I didn't jump on late either.
- I've never been the last person on a wagon.
- I never asked either of our claimants to claim, nor did I add a pressure vote at the end to imply that they should.
- If the best you have is some blatantly made up lies then you're in a lot of trouble.

You may get my vote in a second, but before I decide whether or not to do so, please explain why you posted what you did when it's a clear misrepresentation of the facts.

[Mert]

All wagons but myself yes; but I had reasoning for all but Wacky

Maybe you did (though I don't recall an explicit reason for the Boowagon, particularly) but are you saying that you put a fifth vote (lynch -2) on Wacky with no reason at all?

FoS: Bird1111

[Mert]

Mert, you wern't on Bird's or wacky's (Who I forgot about when I made the last post) but you were on the other three. With my wagon and Jerry's you voted near the very end of the wagons, and for Boo's you did unvote, but you also revoted for him just shortly before the majority of people started looking towards Jerry. It just jumped out at me that you seemed to like to vote along with the largest bandwagon at the time.
I did completely overlook Wacky's wagon though, so I apoligize for that one.

But your post cited "close to lynch" bandwagons. Yours doesn't count as such, in my mind as it only totalled three votes. For completeness, however, I will post it as I did above:

Wagon Alpha: Nightfall

1. Lowell (random vote) [30]
2. Romanus ("someone actually tried to push this wagon") [48]
3. Mert ("By asking for clarification and, by association, asserting that his OMGUS vote could be suspicious, you are advocating the wagon on Bird") [65]

Before I voted for you in Post 65, the votecount was as follows:

4 - Boo (Mert, Jack, Eon, bird1111)
3 - bird1111 (Sailor Jerry, Nightfall, Boo)
2 - Nightfall (Lowell, Romanus)
1 - Lowell (slaking_master)
1 - Romanus (Wacky)
1 - Jack (HackerHuck)

So if I am going after the largest wagon at the time, would it not make more sense for me to have stuck with my vote on Boo? You missed the point of Romanus' posts a few times and so I voted for you because it looked like you were trying to dodge the assertion.

I did vote for Boo again in Post 106 because he appeared to be advocating a quick lynch on Wacky before people had looked into the vanilla claim.

Besides, you said I was

the last person on "3 close to lynch bandwagons"

. I was the last on one, which was yours and that wasn't a "close to lynch" wagon.

I think it's safe to say that the Birdwagon was the most ridiculous of all the wagons as it was just a bunch of "random" votes strung together very quickly. You were the first player in this game to add a second vote (and therefore start a wagon) and yet you're absense from every serious wagon is noteworthy.

Also, something which I hadn't noticed before. You FoSed Sailor Jerry but didn't vote. When everyone started unvoting following his claim, you also posted an unvote, despite the fact you weren't voting for anyone. It looks to me like you could well be trying to blend in with everyone without putting forward any real suspicion and without leaving a vote trail for people to pick up on or read into.

[Mert]

Both of you claimed rather quickly without having been asked by anyone to do so. To refresh your memories, Wacky, you had five votes on you, SJ, you had four. I think Hacker has a point somewhere along the line. You've both claimed and you've both had your wagons dropped for the time being but nobody's really given you a grilling on what prompted you to claim in the first place.

So, a direct question to both of you - why did you feel the need to claim when you did? Please go into detail about your thought process that led to the claim and what your feelings are now that you have claimed.

[Mert]

Oh and Eon, please elaborate.

[Mert]

So did you feel pressured into claiming or was it more that claiming is just the done thing so you did so? Or was it more that you thought "meh, I'm just vanilla so there's not going to be any real harm?"

What do you think about Jerry's claim, anyway? Do you think that four votes was too early for a power-role to claim when he wasn't asked to or do you think it's similar to your own reasoning?

[Mert]

A day, two days from now, you should find Day 1 to be an absolute goldmine.

Sorry for the double post, but I agree with the above. I'm a big fan of long first days, personally (although I know not everybody agrees with me). You may go around in circles a bit and it may seem like nothing's really getting achieved but when it comes to a few days from now, the information from nightkills all suddenly starts to make some sense when referenced back to Day One.

[Mert]

So... who do we think should be investigated tonight? And why?

I was planning to leave it to you, personally. You don't want to leave yourself open to manipulation by the scum and end up wasting an investigation.

I don't like Eon's response to your question though. It does

matter

, I just don't necessarily think it's up to us to decide.

[Mert]

A little of both. Claiming at lynch -2 if it day 1 makes sense, because by lynch -1, you run the risk of some random hobo stacking the last vote on.

Makes sense to me. Thanks for answering my questions.

I have written a response to this, but I'm just noticing that Sailor Jerry hasn't responded to your question yet. I think more information would be gained by hearing his explanation first.

Agreed. Please do post what you’ve written at some point, but you’re right in that we should wait for Jerry to answer before you do so.

@Doctor (if one exists). My suggestion: use fuzzy logic and protect SJ with probability 90% and the most helpful person you can think of with probability 10%. [That I suggested it should be enough to give mafia second thoughts on killing the most helpful pro-town player.]

This is absolutely a good plan and I agree wholeheartedly. If there is a doc out there, you should not advertise or hint at the person who you find to be most likely to be town (ie. the person who gets the 10% chance in Wacky’s scenario). Keep this information very close to your chest and make your own decision on it rather than looking for any kind of town consensus.

[Mert]

I've just done a re-read and I am going to

Vote: bird1111

.

His Post 139 states that he has reasons for joining all those wagons except Wacky's but his reasons, where they do exist, are weak at best.

His vote on Boo [52] was blatant OMGUS more than anything else, simply because Boo said he's "clearly scum".

His vote on Wacky [89] was just following Hacker's lead and thinking Wacky was a better play than Boo. His vote put Wacky at 5 votes and is what caused Wacky to claim. He didn't add anything of his own, he just said Hacker had a point.

His vote on Jerry [114] is the one with perhaps the best reason, though it's only lurkerhunting rather than finding anything scummy about him per se.

In [139] he said that he didn't have a reason for being on the Wackywagon, yet this is the one where he placed a lynch -2 vote! I don't see why he would get on a wagon that late, so far into the game, when he didn't have any reason for doing so. He also had previously stated that he'd agreed with what Hacker said so why did he later admit to not having a reason.

Bird, I have some questions for you:

• You never answered my question in [140] that asked why you'd put Wacky that close to a lynch for no reason at all. Please do so now.
  
• Did you lie about agreeing with Hacker or did you lie about having no reason? To my mind, the two are mutually exclusive.
  
• What is your reason for lying about the above?

Please answer all of the above in your next post in this thread. Thanks.

[Mert]

Confirm Vote: bird1111

[Mert]

Due to my busy schedule, I have

QUIT MAFIASCUM

. Sorry for any inconveniances caused by this.

Mod

, just noticed this in slaking_maser's sig. Looks to me like we need a replacement from somewhere

[Mert]

Hmm, I though Merts case on bird was very weak ("blatent OMGUS" as if that's suspicious) but that last post of his with the "I didn't realize how many votes he had" is damned suspicious.

He stated that he had reasons for being on all the wagons bar Wacky but his reason for Boo was just, as I said, blatant OMGUS and not any firm reason for being on the wagon. He voted for Boo because Boo said he was "clearly scum", which I've always read to have been in jest. Either way, it was reactionary rather than reasoned.

I voted for him because I wanted him to answer my questions. His answer didn't satisfy me sufficiently, so I confirmed my vote. His reasoning of "I didn't realise how many votes Wacky had on him, didn't realise it would put him close to lynch" doesn't cut it for me, really.

[Mert]

Jerry, are you saying that adding a vote to the tail end of a wagon without having checked the vote count is acceptable town behaviour?

• Bird has been on every substantial wagon to date except his own.
  
• Bird said he voted for Wacky because he agreed with Hacker and then later said he didn't have a reason.
  
• Bird said he didn't notice that his vote would put Wacky at five votes. Look back - his vote on Wacky was
  the very next post after the vote count
  .

I'd be willing to accept he hadn't noticed and just chalk it up to poor town play if it'd been a while since the last count. But I cannot see how he could not be aware of the wagon's existence or extent when:

• The vote count immediately preceeded his own vote.
  
• Every vote on the Wackywagon was on the same page as his vote.
  
• He had obviously read the thread before posting because he referred to Hacker's reasons for voting for Wacky.

You can call it fabricated evidence all you like, the facts are above. He's been caught in a lie. Your attempts to rescue him from that have been noted but I guess that can wait until tomorrow when we can test your claim.

My vote stays.

[Mert]

Mert - perhaps I should have been clearer. I'm not FOSing those who are suspicious of bird... Just those who are clearly jumping on the tail end of his wagon.

Okay, I read it as an attack on anyone that suspected him, so apologies if I came off as abrupt.

I agree with you that it's annoyingly common for people to just say "I agree with the above" when joining a wagon. You could at least say

why

you agree, non?

[Mert]

I think he probably does have reasons (when he posted that I re-read Hacker's posts and made a few mental notes to compare when Romanus reveals his thoughts) but I'm not realling feeling Romanusscum at the moment.

It's worth noting that he has said that though, as he will inevitably asked to reveal at some point during this game.

[Mert]

I had a couple of pings when I re-read but nothing to make me as certain as you seem, really. He's definitely in my possible scum pile, but he wouldn't make the absolute upper echelons of my LoS at the moment. I think there are better lynches, but I'll admit that I am interested in your thoughts when you feel it's right to post them.

[Mert]

Mert, how do I put this: you seem to be assuming I'm innocent a little too much for comfort. It's getting creepy the number of times you said "Wacky" in your posts, so I'm going to have to FOS you, even though you're defending me or something.

Wow, that's a weird accusation. I tend to think of everybody as on a neutral plane and then they either get scummier or less scummy depending on their actions. The only thing that really pinged my 'dar for you so far is the eagerness of you claim and the relatively safe role that you said that you have. But other than that, your responses to my questions have been sound, so you're still basically neutral in my mind.

When I post about someones actions in terms of your wagon, I will inevitably accuse them based on that. Are you saying that I should find you more suspicious than I do?

I'm confused - I could end every post with "unless, of course, that person is scum" but I thought it went without saying? I guess it's inevitable that when attacking Bird you were going to come off looking defended but don't worry, I don't consider you cleared yet. If you're scum it just means you've done a reasonable job of convincing me so far...

[Mert]

WTF?

[Mert]

Well I don't think there's any real way of saving this game now... shall we all say what our role was and stuff?

[Mert]

PM: You are the Serial Killer. Every night you may choose somebody to kill. Also since you are by yourself, you are equipped with investigation and nightkill immunity, which means cops will get innocent on you and other killers cannot kill you. You will when you are the last man standing.

I like to think I was doing an okay job of convincing the town that I was on their side... though it seems you were a bunch of Judases anyway