WoT Mafia, GAME OVER

[Illumina]

(School's been busy, but I'm still keeping an eye on events.)

PJ: The first night MM introduced himself and his role, and gave me the list of who he'd targetted. After that, our night communication hasn't been very substantial - MM tells me his intended collar-ee, and I go with it.

Ghyrt: Are you suggesting that Rand is scum, or PJ himself? The former doesn't seem very likely in this game - it isn't something I'd bet on. Are you just saying that, or are there reasons you wouldn't be surprised?

[Anonymities]

I'm back from Belgium and will catch up/resume play ASAP!

[petroleumjelly]

Hmm. If you believe that might be the case, Ghyrt, you're going to have to find a way to explain away Post 885.

Further, there is another point which ought to be made, so as to emphasize why it would be silly to think I'm scum (regardless of my actions this game) from a balancing point of view:

It is clear that I can only use my killing power by ordering an Ashaman to kill for me: therefore, as soon as my Ashaman die (Mariyta and Broomhead/Ghyrt), I

lose

my ability to kill.

It is further clear that I cannot nightkill my own Ashaman, and it should be

further

clear that I am

not

part of the Forsaken scum group or the Black Ajah scum group (or

any

scum group, but this is meant as a hypothetical). This would strongly imply that I would have be a SK of some sort. However, an SK who has two people they cannot kill (the Ashaman) and who cannot kill as soon as those two very people die is so incredibly weak, even arguing it as a possibility is a gigantic stretch, since there is practically no chance for such a role to win a game, and even less a chance for such a role to win a game this large.

[Tamuz]

How do we know sans Ashaman
PJ couldn't kill people can
Or, when they don't kill, people ban?

Anyway to what is addressed to me
My restriction is an annoying you see
But I believe a facilitator my role was to be.

My speech like this in rhyme
And the restriction to lead a bandwagon at the beggining of time
Were parts of my role created to force activity to climb.

The information I have recieved
Came only twice I have believed
And at night from our Mod they were weaved.

Don't ask me where it came from or why
If I knew I wouldn't shake my fist to the sky and cry
"Oh what agent of whom am I, Lord don't lie!"

[Illumina]

I think Tamuz ought to be given props for his creative rhyming skills.

[petroleumjelly]

MBL, have you gotten your results from Gleeman yet?

My suspicions are still consistent with Post 875, except I am becoming increasingly suspicious of Ghyrt. As it is, though, I think it is to my advantage to keep him alive another night so that I may keep my Vigilante power for a short while longer.

Mod

, are you ever going to reveal Lordy's role? I expect he was Elayne, but I would like confirmation, seeing it has been over a day since he has disappeared from the game.

[Gleeman]

PJ, lordy was never in this game.

[MrBuddyLee]

Illumina: I sense a fearsome power growing within her but I do not believe she is the evil sort.

[petroleumjelly]

Oh, joy... Lordy's posts have disappeared. I suppose that means the balefire gets stronger every night, or something. Argh, I hate that kind of mechanic.

In any case:

Pro-Town

PetroleumJelly

Almost Assuredly Pro-Town

MrBuddyLee (I believe the claim 99%)
Anonymities (I believe the claim 99%)
Mystery Meat of Doom (I believe the claim 99%)
Fritzler (I believe the claim 90%... Lordy's absence is disturbing)
Illumina (An investigative innonecent Mason is bastard-moddery)

Contingently Pro-Town

Ghyrt (Only based on

early

Innocent Investigation)
Tamuz (Only based on Innocent Investigation)
Machiavellian-Mafia (Only based on Innocent Investigation)

I think the play today is to lynch Machiavellian-Mafia, and I'll Vig Tamuz (who is consistently claiming an

extremely

vague role, and in my experience, vague roles are often fake-claims by scum... it is further apparant that he is the

only

person acting like he has a post restriction. Further, I don't believe a role that makes 'bandwagons' is a feasilbe role: a 'bandwagon' is subjective).

I would

suggest

(but I will no longer direct) that MrBuddyLee investigate either Fritzler, myself, or perhaps Ghyrt a second time (since I believe he may have been a neutral character turned evil).

Opinions?

[Tamuz]

Honestly you think I'm scum?
Would I have led two of opposing groups to death so glum?
Or are you just acting blind deaf and dumb?

My role is not to make bandwagons
But I was forced to create just that one 'nigh Hagen
For Masema instills fervor in the name of the Dragon.

And as a note, perhaps WIFO-meea
Had I been scum, could I not have claimed Caufin with glee?
No, I tell the truth of who I am and what I do to thee

And vauguity reeks through this entire game
Even in your list of those with least blame.
If you kill me for flavour, this decision may, on your record, leave a stain.

As to the kill of MM today
To that I wouldn't say so much as "Hey!"
For MM is an unnamed character, and I think he has had his stay.

And in addition to that there is knowledge in his death
That would support Ghyrt's nameless claim, if we ever stop to catch a breath
But in insanity, Dragon, remember the plight of our dear Macbeth...

[petroleumjelly]

Honestly you think I'm scum?
Would I have led two of opposing groups to death so glum?
Or are you just acting blind deaf and dumb?

Say, nice hypocrisy. Are

you

blind deaf and dumb? Perhaps you kinda missed my voting and Vigging record, eh?

1.) Push on Karn1 (Forsaken Scum), with the 14 points list which made sure he was lynched after his claim
2.) Push on ChannelDelibird very early on Day One until he was lynched Day Three (Darkfriend Scum)
3.) Outing and lynching Skylink (Black Ajah Scum)
4.) Vigging Logicticus (Forsaken Scum)
5.) Making sure Mariyta's claim of being a Vigilante by herself ended with her being lynched (Possible Darkfriend Scum)

So I've helped lynch probably

three

factions of scum. And you think

I'm

scum? Nice.

And as a note, perhaps WIFO-meea
Had I been scum, could I not have claimed Caufin with glee?
No, I tell the truth of who I am and what I do to thee

Explain this statement. Who is "Caufin"? I do not remember any such character.

My role is not to make bandwagons

But I was forced to create just that one 'nigh Hagen
For Masema instills fervor in the name of the Dragon.

Wait wait wait... then what about these statements?

I must have lead a wagon

In my service to the great Dragon
But for now I'm as good as a drunk without a flagon.

And a side note:

Channel is who some would kill
I see this as a bandwagon of will
without substance a-fill

You defended a Darkfriend. You could be part of a Darkfriend scumgroup in general. Masema is

not

a nice character in the books, and he has killed many innocents. For as much as you are trying to throw doubt on

my

character, you are doing well in avoiding your

own

character flaws.

I must've led a bandwagon

Or my life I'd take with a flagon
For rabblerousing is a skill I've taken.

On top of that I think

my role's frame
Was here to jump start the game
Hence the bandwagon

and random results exclaimed.

So THREE TIMES you have said that you are supposed to have led bandwagons... and now you claim that

aren't

supposed to make bandwagons? Explain that one for me, I beg of you.

The role you are claiming is:

VAGUE.

And vague claims almost always lead to scum. Either explain

everything

about your role, or you get Vigged tonight.

[Tamuz]

I have explained all I know in full
And I don't have the time to shoot useless bull
While someone runs around and stuff their ears with wool.

I'm not sure where you get an attack from the last post
I wanted to make sure you would read it all for the most,
I didn't once in that post say to vote you, and let you roast.

Its understood that you've killed and voted well
But what about those two nights (I believe) you sent people to hell
The dissapearance on those nights you didn't kill is mighty coincidental.

I appologise if I mispelled at a point
But I though to Matt the last name Caufin was annoint
That though is just a small thing t'was unjoint

Here you are reading what you want in my speech
I said wagon, you claimed wagon

s

, clear as a peach?
Stop pushing your agenda on what you read, else t'woud be a bias breech.

My character may not be completly civil,
But don't let every other character's murders get lost in this drivel
I hope you look at our living list and that oppinion will swivel.

For example, Aviendha is more cold-hearted than I
But it is not the Dark Lord that motivates this guy.
I am at the service of the Dragon to Tar'mon'Gaedin, or till I die.

[petroleumjelly]

Quick response (taking a break from homework):

Aviendha is actually one of the three people who Rand loves most (Elayne, Aviendha, and Min) and must love equally. I am certain all three of those characters would be pro-town, especially since, at the very least, Min was pro-town (although we will apparantly never find out about Elayne, I have no reason to believe Lordy was scum).

And also, I don't believe you

have

explained all you know. Here is a short list of what I want from you:

1.) What night you were told about Mr. Flay
2.) What night you were told about Yosarian2
3.) What your exact conditions are to stay alive, or what the consequences are if you fail to produce bandwagons, or if you fail your 'post restriction'

Further, if you had claimed Matt Cauthon, I would have lynched you. Matt Cauthon has absolutely no reason to talk in rhymes. As it is, saying that Masema has a reason to talk in rhymes is a large stretch, as the only type of character I can feasibly see with that sort of restriction would be a Gleeman (i.e. Thom Merrelin).

As it is, I don't even understand why the Mod would create a role who is

told

who the scum are without having them investigate anybody! That seems pretty messed up to me.

Tell me who you think should be Vigged besides you, and present a reason why. I am just having a hard time trying to picture your role PM, because it would have to look something like this:

You are Masema, the Prophet, and servant of the Dragon Reborn. You must talk in triplets, each of which must rhyme. If you fail this restriction, something terrible will happen. You must also start a bandwagon on Day One due to your rabble rousing skills. But I'll make it easier for you by telling you one of the scum you can bandwagon! It's Mr. Flay, by the way. Boy, wouldn't it suck if he died on Night Zero and you couldn't create a bandwagon on him on Day One? Yeah, you would be pretty screwed if that happened. Anyways, if you fail to create a bandwagon on Mr. Flay, something terrible will happen. I will also randomly tell you another scum or two if you keep living throughout, even though you don't have an investigative power.

The more I think about, the less likely your role seems to be. Is

anybody

else's role this needlessly complicated?

[MrBuddyLee]

OK Tamuz, I think you've played fairly pro-town this game. You were absolutely right about the CDB wagon--it lacked substance, but unbeknownst had a cop investigation behind it. You were right about Flay Mariyta and Yos, right about Spamwise, and didn't try to wagon me for a change which is somewhat shocking. You expressed reasonable doubt about PJ and Ghyrt, Fritz and Lordy. I think your judgments have been relatively sound.

BUT--I don't understand how you glean your information. PJ makes a good point. And the stanza that strikes me as unaddressed at this point is:

As far as powers I'm confused
Because knowledge (Flay & Yos) to me have cruised
But from what I am bamboozed.

Is there anything else you can tell us about how this knowledge arrived in your lap?

Ghyrt--you haven't done much scumhunting this game. You show no interest in winning the game for town by outing the hypothetical last scum--none whatsoever. Please grace us with your opinions.

I wouldn't be surprised if the dragon were scum.

Meaning PJ?

M-M--it's been 3 1/2 weeks since your last post of substance. You also don't appear to give a damn about finding the remaining scum. Please give us your thoughts.

Other people have been lousy contributors but their roleclaims are not nearly as discomforting.

[Tamuz]

The information I found
Was given to me during the first two night rounds
Although clear innocent or guilty was not sound

Regardess, the PM I got from the mod
was the best idea I had in the information wad
So I chased it and got lucky, giving the scum the rod.

But PJ you are really angering me here
Because you ability to read english, you aren't holding dear
I want you to know it is singular wagon, and I want that CLEAR

The results I got I can't tell you anything
But never look the gift horse in the mouth, my grandmum sang
So the results were all I looked for, for nothing false would ring.

As to my restrictions let me start
For day one, and only day one, I had to be at a bandwagon's heart
I know not what failure of this results, but I assume I might've had to depart

As to why I speak only in verse and rhyme
I am the prophecy of the Dragon, 'Taint a crime
Failure, again is not addressed, but in spirit, I have followed it to a dime

Aviendha is an example of a good violent person
Agreeing with me on that makes your position worsen
For all of us here have harm to others done.

Likelyhood doesn't matter, only reality and illusion
I guess my role was here to cause activity and confusion
But I suppose that scum would love to have such other delusion.

[petroleumjelly]

Okay, I'm gonna line up the info as we have gotten it from myself, MrBuddy, MMoD, the collarings, and random information. I consider the three of us the most cleared people in the game, with Anonymies being almost just as cleared simply for his claim and how it coincided with my claim. I'll switch my notes from "Night Zero - Night Six" to "Night One - Night Seven" to avoid confusion.

Night One

:
1.) PJ sends Ashaman to kill Mudbuck (Mudbuck already killed by somebody else)
2.) MBL investigates Pooky, gets an innocent result
3.) MMoD learns that there are neutral roles which can be won over by shadow
*4.) M-M tries to collar MBL, fails = MBL not a female channeler

Night Two

:
1.) PJ sends Ashaman to kill Broomhead/Ghyrt (refused)
2.) MBL investigates Broomhead/Ghyrt, learns "there is reason to fear, but not evil"
3.) MMoD learns something about "can protect, stop, and control shadow" (I don't understand this one)
*4.) TSS disappears
*5.) M-M tries to collar PJ, fails = PJ not a female channeler

Night Three

:
1.) PJ sends Ashaman to kill Albert the Great
2.) MBL investigates Logicticus, gets guilty result
3.) MMoD learns that on Night Two, TSS vanished, and a player refused to kill himself
*4.) Pooky (Moriane) finds PJ (Rand)
*5.) BJ collared, success = BJ a female channeler

Night Four

:
1.) PJ sends Ashaman to kill Logicticus
2.) MBL investigates TSS, led to ChannelDelibird, gets guilty result
3.) MMoD learns that on Night Three, BJ was collared and somebody found another person, who MMoD doesn't like (Moraine), but the result is good (i.e. two good guys hook up, PJ and Pooky)
*4.) Yos2 collared, success = Yos2 a female channeler

Night Five

:
1.) PJ sends Ashaman to kill Cyan
2.) MBL investigates Tamuz, gets innocent result
3.) MMoD learns that some people can communicate, but some of those communicators can't be trusted
*4.) Illumina collared, success = Illumina a female channeler

Night Six

:
1.) PJ does not send his Ashaman to do anything
2.) MBL investigates Machiavellian-Mafia, gets a "not malicious" result
3.) MMoD learns that on Night Five,

MBL did not catch anybody

, and that Illumina was collared
*4.) M-M claims to have collared Lordy, success = Lordy a female channeler
*5.) Lordy disappeared

Night Seven

:
1.) PJ sends his Ashaman to kill Spamwise
2.) MBL investigates Illumina, gets a "sense of growing fearsome power, but no evil"
3.) MMoD learns that on Night Six, there was not much hostile intent
*4.) M-M claims to have collared nobody

So actually, MMoD's role (I think) just helped clear Tamuz. Since MMoD was told explicitly that MBL did not "catch anybody", and that night MBL investigated Tamuz, it might add up to mean that Tamuz might not be a GF role.

Also, note that MMoD's role also goes to clear me: it verifies that I

did

ask my Ashaman Broomhead to kill himself on Night Two, and therefore I could not have been the cause of TSS's disappearance. Further, he goes to show that two people found each other on Night Three (Pooky and PJ), and that although he does not like one of those people (Moraine), the result is good (as in two good guys hooking up).

M-M can still be a GF role who investigates as innocent when he himself takes no action (as we know he took no actions on Night Six, the night MBL investigated him... but instead have ordered Illumina to use balefare on Lordy, although he

claims

to have collared Lordy). Further, we know there was "not much hostile intent" on Night Six from MMoD, and if M-M is hostile (but was simply "not hostile") on Night Six, that fits in him with investigating as "not malicious"

for just Night Six

, since it would have been Illumina using the balefare (not hostilely: she would be

forced into it

) rather than M-M.

Look what all can be done with a bit o' critical thinking!

In short...

Vote: Machiavellian-Mafia

. I think you are a GF role who investigates innocent so long as you yourself take no night actions on the night in which you are investigated.

People who I will

not not

want to Vig tonight:
1.) Myself
2.) MBL
3.) MMoD
4.) Anonymities
5.) Tamuz
6.) Illumina (Unless M-M specifically comes up as a Cult Leader role)
7.) Fritzler (I believe his claim of Aviendha, and that she would be pro-town)

People who I will very likely

fail

at Vigging tonight:
1.) Ghyrt (an Ashaman will not kill himself when ordered, as we have learned

I think the scum are M-M and Ghyrt.

I suggest we lynch M-M today. I would

also

suggest that Anonymities

role-blocks Ghyrt

, so that he cannot kill tonight.

Any objections?

[petroleumjelly]

Ah, shoot, now I'm mixing two things together. I just said that both Ghyrt might be the person who uses balefire, or that M-M might force female channelers into using balefire. *sigh*

And actually... I am going to check my PM's to see if I was ever told of an "attempted collaring" on Night Two. I do not recall ever receiving such a PM. And I can't believe that didn't occur to me until just now. >< Argh.

[petroleumjelly]

Nope, I have no PM's telling me about a failed collaring attempt on me for Night Two. The only info I have about Night Two is that my Ashaman refused my orders. Damnit, this game probably could have been over yesterday if I was thinking straight.

Confirm Vote: Machiavellian-Mafia

.

DIE DIE SUCK DIE SCUM DIE.

[MrBuddyLee]

The three people I'd like to kill off in order are:

M-M
Ghyrt
Fritzler

But since Ghyrt cannot be vigged, the only way to kill him is to lynch him.

I suggest a possible course of action:

Lynch Ghyrt
Vig M-M
Roleblock M-M

Or not roleblock him if the roleblock implies a protection from Vig.

Also, PJ, you mention the possibility of a cult:

6.) Illumina (Unless M-M specifically comes up as a Cult Leader role)

I've considered the possibility of you being a cult leader as well, but two things speak against that:

1) Too much power: recruitment plus kills
2) In a game with no reveals of role, a cult would be difficult if not impossible to detect and thus unbalanced.

So yeah, I think we'll probably win if we off Ghyrt and M-M. Thoughts?

[petroleumjelly]

Nope, M-M is the lynch today. I'll show you why.

1.) Once we lynch Ghyrt, I lose my Vig ability, since I will no longer have Ashaman to order about
2.) Even if I somehow

kept

my killing ability (which would not happen), if Anonymities targets M-M, M-M will be protected from kills as well as role-blocked (so that he still could not be killed)
3.) As we have learned (by me being role-blocked/protected on a night where I successfully ordered my Ashaman into killing), Anonymities

does not stop orders from being issued

. So, for example, if M-M is role-blocked/protected by Anonymities tonight, M-M would

still

be able to use his killing ability by ordering Illumina to use balefire (I suspect), mooting the reason for having him role-blocked in the first place.

Thou shalt not sully thy good name of Jelly Al'Thor! M-M is totally the play today.

[MrBuddyLee]

6. mystery meat of doom
8. petroleumjelly
9. Fritzler (replaces lml)
12. MrBuddyLee
13. Machiavellian-Mafia
14. Anonymities (replaces TheMan himself (replaces Ameliaslay)
22. Illumina
23. Ghyrt (replaces - broomhead )
25. Tamuz

I wouldn't kill mmod, PJ or Anonymities any time soon.

This leaves M-M, Ghyrt, Fritz, Tamuz, Illumina.

If we kill two every day/night and the most scum can kill is one, that means that at worst:

5 town, 1 scum tomorrow
2 town 1 scum the next day

If we only lynch it goes at worst:

6 town one scum tomorrow
4 town one scum the next day
2 town one scum the third day

Question is, which course is preferable? I have the feeling my investigations may have outlived their use, as one of the most likely suspects has quite possibly godfathered an innocent result. I've also considered that I'd be dead right now if I posed a threat to scum as a cop. The alternative is that one of {PJ, mmod, Anonymities, MBL, Fritz} is scum, and Fritz, the most likely of those has a quite protown roleclaim.

Also, the above numbers don't hold if Ghyrt is killed. Fresh investigation results aside, if nothing else changes, is he the likely lynch tomorrow?

Is the balefiring of lordy viewed as an attempt to eliminate surety of Fritzler's alibi? We weren't able to confirm lordy's identity and thus are unable to confirm Fritz's relationship with lordy. WIFOM, sure, but it looks like an attempt to bring Fritzler to the forefront of suspicion. I suppose it's equally possible that Fritzler balefired his partner to eliminate any evidence of a tainted role? Is there anything about the mechanism of balefire that would prohibit any of these possibilities?

[mystery meat of doom]

3.) MMoD learns something about "can protect, stop, and control shadow" (I don't understand this one)

That's a "channeling" instead of shadow. So I'm assuming the protect against means doc, stop means role-block, and control means M-M (who is the collarer).

I'm still confused about the lordy thing. So lordy was in the game, but the mod deleted all his posts and said he wasn't in the game?

PJ: That's a good interpretation of what my actions mean. I'm not too sure about the M-M thing, but I think M-M might be a good lynch, since he controls balefire (so I'm lead to believe), and there have been deaths with that. Also, if he is a neutral of some kind and we DON'T lynch him, there is a chance of him suddenly winning the game with a kill. I think Illumina would know if he were ordered to kill, hence why M-M decided to not kill the few days before or whenever.

I'm going to keep my vote until we come to a consensus.

[petroleumjelly]

Yes, that's exactly what we think happened to Lordy. Balefire is a technique which causes the target to have ceased to exist for a period of time: sometimes for a few seconds, minutes, hours... or if very powerful, somebody will ceased to have exist before they were born (how that makes any realistic sense, I don't know, but I'm not Robert Jordan). If Lordy ceased to have existed, then everything he has said has

also

ceased to have existed (so his posts were deleted, it would seem).

Also, there really is no question for the M-M lynch to me. If MBL was told that he had failed to be collared on Night One, and I was

not

told if I was ever an intended collaring target on Night Two (and yet everybody else knows when they've been collared), I think that's a good indicator that M-M did

not

target me on Night Two, so that he is lying about who he collared (i.e. he

did

collar a female channeler, which allowed him to order them into using balefire Night Two), and that he is scummity-scum-scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

I am not thrilled about the nexus between PJ, M-M and Ghyrt.

The nights when balefiring occurred, the three of them did things out of their usual pattern of activity.

The night TSS was obliterated, M-M claims to have targeted PJ, PJ claims to have targeted his Ashaman, and Ghyrt claims to have done nothing due to PJ's order.

The night lordy was obliterated, M-M claimed to have targeted lordy and PJ claimed to have done nothing along with Ghyrt.

Every other night, M-M targeted someone as far as we know. Every other night PJ vigged someone and Ghyrt did the dirty work.

Also, the balefire seems to get more powerful each day. It may prove critical that we kill off the most likely sources asap before it gets any stronger. I'm more hesitant about killing off PJ, but I don't see a problem with killing Ghyrt and M-M immediately. Can anyone else please post their thoughts on this?

[Anonymities]

"I suggest we lynch M-M today. I would also suggest that Anonymities role-blocks Ghyrt, so that he cannot kill tonight. "

Sounds reasonable.

That lordy dissapearing is just freakin wierd .

Vote: Machiavellian-Mafia

I hate to leave with such a short post but I have been extremely busy in my engineering classes. Will follow up ASAP.