Micro 14: Think Twice (Day 2) *Sunshine Icon Here*

[GreyICE]

Votecount 2.2

Sivure

- Cobblerfone

Not Voting:

Everyone else

[Timeater]

saul get in here and vote siv

unless this is some massive practical joke and siv is town, we have two extra lynches =D

[saulres]

Gah! Sorry I've been out of thread so long. Work hit me yesterday and then I just took the night off from

everything

. I'm slowly getting some breathing space...

I'm nervous now to put a vote on Siv, because of the way Cobbler was so quick to vote him, without any comments. He's clearly followed the thread enough to know that he's the other prime suspect. Does he really think he's going to get towncred for dropping that vote? It makes me wonder if the team's Cobbler-Ice, and if Siv is just some massive,

massive

VI.

I'm going to run the averages on my scenarios like Siv suggested, he has a point that there will be more "events" for him than for the others because he has so many more posts than they. Maybe the average is the right way to do it.

[Timeater]

do it dude

=\

cobbler did it because he had to, think about it

we lynch between cobb and ice after siv flips game is over we won gg

[saulres]

Okay, looking at average points/events:

[*]Cobbler-Siv team: +2 +1 +(either +1 or -2) +2 +2 +2 = 9 + (either +1 or -2) so either 10 or 7. 6 events. So either 1.67 or 1.1
[*]Cobbler-Ice team: +1 +2 = 3. 2 events. So 1.5
[*]Siv-Ice team: -2 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 = 5. 6 events. So .833

That shows a definite swing to Cobbler as the better target. Maybe we should lynch Cobbler today instead?

If we're wrong today, we lose. If we're right, we get a "free" lynch tomorrow. Let's make sure we hit scum today.

pedit: I did think about it. That's why I didn't vote Siv. The way Cobbler did it makes me think he's not bussing, but setting it up for his buddy to win.

[Timeater]

what the fuck are these numbers stop being arbitrarily irrelevantly pointless

no shit we lose if we ML

man up and do what i ask please

[Timeater]

any attempt to dissuade me from siv (which you've already done) will be met with extreme suspicion

[Timeater]

saul, did you miss the part where siv claimed scum?

[saulres]

I think I must have. Link?

[Timeater]

jesus christ

[saulres]

That's not a link.

Look, I've been in LyLos before, and at least used to be pretty decent at them. In one 3-person LyLo I replaced into,

everyone

had a scumread on one of the other players -- the dead players, everyone posting in the thread, everyone. But I didn't vote him right away; I asked questions, I played and studied the game, and finally I found the slip the

other

guy had made, and won the game. If I had gone with the prevailing "wisdom", we would have lost.

I don't rush into voting unless I see a for-sure scumslip, and I won't be pressured to.

[Timeater]

Just for starters

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p4277201
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p4277271
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p4277287
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p4279816

[saulres]

Those aren't slips, those are VI moves. Remember, we're talking about a guy who in my game

self-hammered

to put the town in LyLo.

[Timeater]

I've thought about this on a level you aren't prepared to visit

[Timeater]

So, I'll wait for Ice.

If he's the worst VI in the history of mafiascum sobeit.

[Timeater]

Those aren't slips, those are VI moves. Remember, we're talking about a guy who in my game

self-hammered

to put the town in LyLo.

Also this is such a gross under simplification and misrepresentation you pretty much have to be his parter if/when he flips.

[Timeater]

over-simplificiation*

[Timeater]

Cobbler-Siv team: +2 +1 +(either +1 or -2) +2 +2 +2 = 9 + (either +1 or -2) so either 10 or 7. 6 events. So either 1.67 or 1.1

Cobbler-Ice team: +1 +2 = 3. 2 events. So 1.5

Siv-Ice team: -2 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 = 5. 6 events. So .833

What the hell is this jibbering nonsense?

Seriously.

[Timeater]

Those aren't slips, those are VI moves. Remember, we're talking about a guy who in my game

self-hammered

to put the town in LyLo.

also he self hammered under the pretense that his vote format was wrong and would not count

misrep more please

[saulres]

I know he did that, and I wasn't trying to misrep. My point was that as town, he's made some big mistakes. It's not indicative of his being scum.

And why aren't

you

voting him if you're so sure he's scum? If you weren't conftown I'd be saying you're scum trying to bully through a lynch; who

does

that in LyLo besides scum? Only reason I can come up with is that you have a doubt

too

. Why you're not willing to explore it is beyond me.

[Timeater]

you werent trying thats why you casually mull over reality to make your points seem stronger

because i control the hammer fuckhead

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Saulres not scum. I REALLY don't see a point in trying to stop the lynch as scum.

So thus.

VOTE: Cobbler

[Cobblerfone]

I'm moving back into college, so I will be V/LA. I'll be posting on Sunday at the latest, but I'll probably be settled in before then.

[Cobblerfone]

I'm moving back into college, so I will be V/LA. I'll be posting on Sunday at the latest, but I'll probably be settled in before then.

[GreyICE]

Votecount 2.2

Sivure

- Cobblerfone

Cobblerfone

- Sivure


Not Voting: IceGuy, saulres, Timeater,

Deadline in:

(expired on 2012-08-30 10:00:00)

I'm moving back into college, so I will be V/LA. I'll be posting on Sunday at the latest, but I'll probably be settled in before then.

VLA Thursday-Sunday is acceptable to me.