New York 152 Niiightless Game Over!

[noraaa]

Don't forget the part where UN won't reply about my questioning him about it, either, but is using it as half the basis that I'm scum!

[Ythan]

Vote Count

5 BK201 (Matias, UberNinja, Psyche, petapan, noraaa) L-2
4 Psyche (Pine, Hiraki, inte, CF Riot)
1 CF Riot (crypto)
1 inte (BK201)
0 UberNinja
0 Pine
0 Matias
0 noraaa
0 petapan
0 D3f3nd3r
0 crypto
0 Hiraki

1 Not Voting (D3f3nd3r)

D3f3nd3r replaces Kairyuu.

7 to lynch
Deadline June 4th

[Psyche]

I'm beginning to find that accusing OMGUS is a towntell. That correlates pretty well with who has accused OMGUS so far in this game, and predicts that Kairyuu, UN and CF Riot are town. UN! Hm.

I'm not going to follow those predictions religiously, of course. I'm just saying. Besides, I won't really have any good idea of how strong a tell it is until my study is finished.

Analysis coming up.

[Psyche]

I'm reallt proud of myself, guys. Because of how frequently Pine accused players of flailing (more than anyone else in the study!), my flailing accusation study constitutes a meta. Bwahaha.

A little longer...

[Psyche]

People who are basically town:
Me
CF
Matias
D3f3nd3r (I'm calling him D3 now!)

Just about basically:
noraaa
UN*
petapan (for 1153)

WOOT! 7 of 12!

*pending the results of my study

Now for the next five!

BK, again, is weird, and has been consistently weird in all of the games I've played with him. He doesn't ever play as if he is conscious of what constitutes bad play, and I'm unsure of what he'll do differently as scum. I can't not have a null tell on him. He's been a consistent presence on all of the bad wagons, but with little argument and just-enough commitment. But that really is just how BK rolls, so I'm unsure of it. His wagoning on my BB case was the scummiest that occurred. 

But yes, the pattern is SO consistent that I'm unwilling to attribute it to chance. 

And then he accused someone we now know is town of flailing. My study suggests that, though we tend not to detect it, accusations of flailing are disproportionately used by scum as a rhetorical device to get town dead. Statistically speaking, his accusation is a bona fide scumtell, and for me, tips the scale.

I can't say I'm superconfident that BK will turn out to be scum, because he really is a walking outlier. And 42.5% really isn't definitive. But I think all our tells as a whole case are sufficient for a lynch. 

***

Pine!
151 reads as town.

Should've been pressed to explain 286 where he said BlondeDoctor was giving off newbie scumtells. Could you do that now, Pine?

399 vote for me kinda sucks. Pine fails to justify his vote, but I admit it was implied.

725 vote for mogri, reason why: "I agree". Eh.

863—

I'll give you three

great

reasons why my wagon is bad:

1. I'm town.
2. No one has been able to clearly articulate an argument for my lynch.
3. There are other players for whom there is much better evidence.

And really, what better argument could there be? The people voting for me are even lazier than I am. I've got one guy voting for me because I don't really care who replaced whom, I've got other guys voting for me because that's who they were voting for yesterday, and I have others still voting for who knows what reason. Sign me up. I'm convinced.

^Scumpost

Reason 1 can't be independently substantiated, discard it.
Reason 2 stinks of "caught for the wrong reasons," discard it.
Reason 3 is a nonspecific "anyone but me" cry. If he'd advocated someone specific, that might've been convincing. Discard it.
Reason 4 (lazy voters) is laced heavily with overtly defensive, and again nonspecific, sarcasm. Discard it and burn it with fire.

Ugh. The defense is taken too seriously by pine and just labeled as a "scumpost" without justification.

In my flailing accusation study, Pine was the one who accused players of flailing the most liberally, and this post reminds me a lot of it. His label of mogri's posts as a scumpost without justification reads just like his repeated accusations of down-going players of flailing. In 7 of the 10 cases, the player accused was town.

In those 7 cases, only ONCE was Pine town.

(only 4 of Pine's accusations were by Town)

Because of this, I'm VERY inclined to think that Pine is scum.

***

I can't find anything scummy about crypto, but his posts stink.
But then again, so did mogris. I'm not trusting bad vibes until I do a study on them.

I sympathize with his expressed incapacity to get a latch on the game. Would scum complain in that way? I have no idea.

I can't get a hold on him. If he's scum, we're all doomed.

***

Hiraki!
I hope this goes better.

In 309, he forgets why he's voting for redff, but doesn't reiterate why

Hiraki overdoes it. His accusations include LOADS of false positives, which is something to investigate via meta. I predict, though, that it'll show up as a consistent aspect of his playstyle. His earnest declarations of other players' townhood reads as a buddying technique that I've used before. 

Suspicious, but.(..)

***

I'm bored...

[Psyche]

Sigh. Deadline June 4th...

unvote; vote Pine

I'm much more sure that Pine is scum.

[Matias]

Er, do you have meta on BK being an outlier? (if you already posted it, point me to it, I'm still away from home)

[Pine]

Nope, not scum. Just disinterested with this game. Diablo 3 and whipping Town's ass at DC Universe mafia.

zzzz

[UberNinja]

I just happened to read some of the endgame of DC Universe mafia. Very nice. It also happens to make me just that much more suspicious of you.

Pine, what's your opinion on BK?
BK, what's your opinion on Pine?

[BK201]

@Psyche, Well I didn't know you think my play is always weird, but it's probably b/c I'm still have much to learn. Also I like your vote on Pine much more than myself, but what do you think of Inte?

P-edit, Pine is 1 of the 2 players I have scum reads on.

[Pine]

Uberninja, in my opinion there's only one effective scumtell that is consistent with me. If I'm heavily involved in a game and seem to be obsessed, it's because I'm scum and totally preoccupied. I don't like being Town. I prefer scum.

That strike you as applying to this game?

I don't really see a real case on BK. It's weaksauce, and seems to have gained strength as a counterwagon to the correct lynch for today, Psyche.

[UberNinja]

Self meta is fucking useless.

[UberNinja]

Pine is 1 of the 2 players I have scum reads on.

Then put your vote somewhere it isn't fucking useless.

[noraaa]

Psyche is basically saying BK is another NS. Which bothers me but I think Psyche is scummy so I won't let it really grab me hard.

Pine has legit said "I am town" and now is telling us exactly how he plays as scum. I find that really weird.

[noraaa]

in other words, my mind is caught up in wifom right now.

[CF Riot]

Wow Psyche. Wow. You really went and did it. I'm floored that you really put in all that effort.

I don't care. The original BK vote, in context, is IMO the single scummiest post of this game. The fact that I'm the only one reacting this way about it bothers me, but that's honestly how I feel. I note that the MD topic came after the post in this thread, and his data there still said town says flail more often than scum says flail and yet he uses this as a reason to vote BK. I've sat and thought about it, and I really cannot see any reasonable scenario in which if town hits lylo I won't want to vote for Psyche.

Honestly, BK is a great vote. In another circumstance, I would probably still be on the wagon, but I can't let this go. I doubt I will switch my vote today.

[noraaa]

CF, others have agreed with you that that was a scummy move on Psyche's part. I'm not sure why you keep insisting you're the only one thinking that way.

[UberNinja]

I'm also not sure why you doubt you will switch your vote today.

That kind of obstinacy, especially in the face of your agreement that BK "is a great vote" is extremely odd.

[D3f3nd3r]

Hey, I'm Kairyuu's replacement.

To get myself into this, ask me some questions about the game, my opinions on players, or other mafia-related stuff.

[UberNinja]

How about you read the game.

[Psyche]

Wow Psyche. Wow. You really went and did it. I'm floored that you really put in all that effort.

I don't care. The original BK vote, in context, is IMO the single scummiest post of this game. The fact that I'm the only one reacting this way about it bothers me, but that's honestly how I feel. I note that the MD topic came after the post in this thread, and his data there still said town says flail more often than scum says flail and yet he uses this as a reason to vote BK. I've sat and thought about it, and I really cannot see any reasonable scenario in which if town hits lylo I won't want to vote for Psyche.

Honestly, BK is a great vote. In another circumstance, I would probably still be on the wagon, but I can't let this go. I doubt I will switch my vote today.

You're pretty mistaken.

I'm pretty sure I posted the thread after that post. Let me check...
Sat May 26, 2012 4:09 pm
Sat May 26, 2012 1:20 am

The first one is my post in MD.

Okay, I was wrong. Of course, I also posted an incomplete version of my data in [REDACTED] a number of days before that.

That's weird. Totally goes against what I remember. I feel a little strange now.

But do you reallly think I did that whole study JUST for this game?

Because that is what you're implying.

I seriously just looked up flailing in the thread to see what juicy results would come up. BK's is the only juicy result.

You seem to be misreading my data. It says that when a player accuses a town of flailing, that player is disproportionately more likely to be scum. It is actually the biggest scumtell that I discovered. The fact that mogri is town means I'm able to consider BK's vote within that context and thus have a MUST stronger tell on him.

Er, do you have meta on BK being an outlier? (if you already posted it, point me to it, I'm still away from home)

Oh, no. Just quite a bit of experience. Some of that experience might include ongoings, which includes this one. His first post here is testament to that fact.

Nope, not scum. Just disinterested with this game. Diablo 3 and whipping Town's ass at DC Universe mafia.

zzzz

If I was calling you scum for being disinterested, that'd be enough of a defense.

@Psyche, Well I didn't know you think my play is always weird, but it's probably b/c I'm still have much to learn. Also I like your vote on Pine much more than myself, but what do you think of Inte?

P-edit, Pine is 1 of the 2 players I have scum reads on.

Oh, don't worry. That's what makes you unique! And unboring.

I've always had a negative read on inte, but so far, I can only compare its substance to that I had on mogri — gut. Which I doubt the usefulness of.

Uberninja, in my opinion there's only one effective scumtell that is consistent with me. If I'm heavily involved in a game and seem to be obsessed, it's because I'm scum and totally preoccupied. I don't like being Town. I prefer scum.

That strike you as applying to this game?

I don't really see a real case on BK. It's weaksauce, and seems to have gained strength as a counterwagon to the correct lynch for today, Psyche.

:/

That would explain away why 6/7 of his flailing accusations on town occur when he is scum.

However, he accused flailing as town 4/10 times, which is pretty close to half. I'm thinking this is disingenuous posting, but I can be sure.

Psyche is basically saying BK is another NS. Which bothers me but I think Psyche is scummy so I won't let it really grab me hard.

Pine has legit said "I am town" and now is telling us exactly how he plays as scum. I find that really weird.

No, crypto is like NS. BK is like inte.

I am not scummy. You all are mistaken.

[Psyche]

*MUCH stronger tell on him

Though in reality, it's about 7% stronger.

[Psyche]

(still amounting to a ~20% tell, mind you)

Also,

The fact that I'm the only one reacting this way about it bothers me

I would like to remind everyone that we learned from THIS:

Vote Count

7 Nobody Special (crypto, inte, UberNinja, Psyche, CF Riot, noraaa, Pine) LYNCH

2 Psyche (Hiraki, Nobody Special)
0 inte
0 crypto
0 petapan
0 BK201
0 Kairyuu
0 Hiraki
0 Matias
0 CF Riot
0 noraaa
0 Pine
0 UberNinja

4 Not Voting (petapan, BK201, Kairyuu, Matias)

Congratulations, you have lynched Nobody Special! He was a

Vanilla Townie

!

With 12 alive it's still 7 to lynch.
Your new deadline is June 4th.

that implicit arguments like THESE:

fact that his name has come up so often and yet the wagon has never quite gone through makes me think there is some scum resistance out there. Right now, he's my top choice for the lynch today.

Do NOT work.

[UberNinja]

Just because it wasn't true once doesn't mean it's never true.

The amount of opposition to that wagon was uncanny. Probably because scum wanted to bring him into endgame with them, because he'd be an easy mislynch target. They have to plan for the future. If all of the juicy targets are gone, who are they going to hide behind?

Case in point.

[Pine]

Self meta is fucking useless.

So is reading the aftermath of a 100+ page game (including the archive from tiger attack) and thinking you can use it as meta.

I never lie about my meta, either. Who does? It's useless, as a lie will only get you into deeper trouble.

Can someone actually make a cogent case on BK? I haven't see one yet, just drips and drabs that coalesce into a counterwagon against my chief suspect. I mean, look at Psyche's "study". It's clearly bogus. There's no way he actually read the hundred or so games he's suggesting, which makes it more likely that he was skimming of CTRL-F searching them for points to use as weapons rather than actual insight. Notice also the last point of 1545. He says "I'm not scummy," rather than "I'm not scum." Town says the latter, scum says the former.