New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[havingfitz]

v/LA until Monday

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I have a few questions:

1) Does anyone know Baseline's main?
2) MoI, you dodged this question earlier, so I'll ask it again: did you really think DV might get targetted for a nightkill?
3) Tammy, could you link me to your most representative scum game?

My suspicions currently go something like:
havingfitz ------------- MoI -- Tammy -- NS-----------------------------------------------------me!

Also, I can't help but note that the tracker innocent is a significant piece of evidence in favour of me being town (especially if, as implied on the first page, I was a bad tracker target.)

[Tammy]

Yeah, I already pointed out in the neighborhood that if there's only one killer remaining you can absolutely not be it. I'm still inclined to believe you're not it even if there's two because of it - think it would be a hell of a coincidence that you didn't perform the kill on the night when you were tracked - but I have a tendency to clear killers for stupid reasons like this, so it's not 100%.

If you really want to read me as scum though, there's only two I could link you to *Yes, I draw scum just as often in forums as I do in chat - not very.* The most recent one is at the other site. It's in the same place that we played the WoT game and you played the mini. It's on page three - Game 87.5. It was an altless game so I'm easy to find.

[Tammy]

^Oh, both games are at the other site; I don't have any scum meta here. The other one is alted though and as the alts have changed, I don't know who I am now, and if you really want to read how I played scum in the very first game I ever played, I'll try to figure it out. It ends with Faraday getting me lynched after investigating me though

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Did Magua have anything interesting to say in the neighborhood? (It's just Magua in there, right?)

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD - As usual I'm LA this weekend for family duties.

There was significant discussion in the Neighborhood QT regarding who is the remaining scum. We should be treating today as LYLO for obvious reasons.

I'm inclined to vote one of two people at this stage with a third dark-horse candidate.

VTs

- why shouldn't you be at the top of my voting list?

[MagnaofIllusion]

2) MoI, you dodged this question earlier, so I'll ask it again: did you really think DV might get targetted for a nightkill?

Also, I can't help but note that the tracker innocent is a significant piece of evidence in favour of me being town (especially if, as implied on the first page, I was a bad tracker target.)

He was my protect option as obv-Town. I also had a gut sense he might be a Power-role based on his play Day 1 as a relative newb.

No, a negative tracker scan is Null at best assuming we have 2 scum left. Or the strong possibility of a Ninja which you I find interesting you don't even consider. The fact you were slated to be targetted by the Vanilla Cop and scum gambled (assuming they don't have a Roleblocker which I think at this point is a good chance) to kill said Cop with the threat of Bodyguard protection I see as possible evidence against you.

More when I have time ... Monday at worst.

[Tammy]

It was Magua, Magna and I. It's just Magna and I now. Magua didn't say much recently, and they mostly fit the things he said in twilight, except that he decided it was quite likely that havingfitz was mafia based on the fact that fitz seemed so certain that there was an SK and that it was redFF.

I'll give more in a bit. I'm going to try to go back to sleep.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He was my protect option as obv-Town. I also had a gut sense he might be a Power-role based on his play Day 1 as a relative newb.

You're dodging the question in the same way as before. I don't care why you picked him; what I want to know is why it was worth using your shot at all. DV seems like a really unlikely kill.

No, a negative tracker scan is Null at best assuming we have 2 scum left. Or the strong possibility of a Ninja which you I find interesting you don't even consider.

Including a Ninja just seems mean to the Tracker. Scum certainly don't seem to need one powerwise.

"Null at best", really? Does that mean it's actually evidence against me at worst? What?

No, it's fairly obviously evidence in favour of me being town. CEStown -> negative trackerscan, CESscum -> negative trackerscan only part of the time. A simple application of Bayes' Theorem tells you it makes me more likely to be Town (regardless of whether you think a Ninja is plausible).

The fact you were slated to be targetted by the Vanilla Cop and scum gambled (assuming they don't have a Roleblocker which I think at this point is a good chance) to kill said Cop with the threat of Bodyguard protection I see as possible evidence against you.

If redFF had been a real bodyguard, they would have to work their way through him anyway, no?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Magua didn't say much recently, and they mostly fit the things he said in twilight, except that he decided it was quite likely that havingfitz was mafia based on the fact that fitz seemed so certain that there was an SK and that it was redFF.

I agree with this by the bye. There's a pattern of havingfitz appearing to be more clued in to things than he should.

[Tammy]

I would agree...though I'm the only one considering you confirmed town so your potential NK is apparently no sure thing. In fact...what looks worse? You still being here tomorrow or the Almighty MOI (now that all the PRs are gone)?

This rubs me the wrong way. Can you point to who was actually suspecting Magua? As I recall, we all had him as a strong town read. I also don't like that you seem to be setting up suspicion for MoI being alive if he is (ie parroting the paranoia already voiced by DY and NS).

[Tammy]

You won't. You're scum of some flavor. I just know it.

See it's posts like this that have me doubting my earlier scum read of NS.

[Tammy]

Did Magua have anything interesting to say in the neighborhood? (It's just Magua in there, right?)

This is setting off my alarm bells. Magna stated in the post a couple before this that he was in the QT and Magua had stated earlier that he was having a bit of a debate about the SK investigation with Magna in the neighborhood, so it was known that it wasn't just Magua in the neighborhood.

I've had a generally positive feeling about you since you entered the game, but things like this that seem like they could be feigned ignorance tend to put me on edge.

[Tammy]

CES - How many mafia do you think are left?

[Tammy]

NS - What do you think about havingfitz? I don't think you've ever mentioned him. (At least not since the crash)

[Tammy]

CES - I'm not a maths person, so I don't know the practical applications of Bayes' Theorem or whatever, but one of the reasons brought forth for why there was no mafia nightkill night one was because IaI was jailkept and that maybe he happened to be the one who was supposed to have performed the night kill that failed.

If we're going to accept that probability for why there was no night kill on night one, what is keeping us from accepting the probability that you were tracked on night four but just did not perform the kill for that night?

[Tammy]

Magua didn't say much recently, and they mostly fit the things he said in twilight, except that he decided it was quite likely that havingfitz was mafia based on the fact that fitz seemed so certain that there was an SK and that it was redFF.

I agree with this by the bye. There's a pattern of havingfitz appearing to be more clued in to things than he should.

I need to re-read him with this in mind.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I've had a generally positive feeling about you since you entered the game, but things like this that seem like they could be feigned ignorance tend to put me on edge.

I do have some pride for the record. I tend to fake a somewhat more insightful and observant townie ignorance than that.

CES - How many mafia do you think are left?

2. 90%+ sure of that too.

CES - I'm not a maths person, so I don't know the practical applications of Bayes' Theorem or whatever, but one of the reasons brought forth for why there was no mafia nightkill night one was because IaI was jailkept and that maybe he happened to be the one who was supposed to have performed the night kill that failed.

If we're going to accept that probability for why there was no night kill on night one, what is keeping us from accepting the probability that you were tracked on night four but just did not perform the kill for that night?

It's certainly a possibility - which is why it's evidence in favour of innocence and not proof of my innocence. If we assume a prior probability of me being scum of 50% (2 scum out of 4) and a probability of me making the nightkill in that situation of 50% (1 out of 2 scum), then Bayes' Theorem tells us that the tracker innocence should downgrade that probability to 33%.

[Tammy]

I've had a generally positive feeling about you since you entered the game, but things like this that seem like they could be feigned ignorance tend to put me on edge.

I do have some pride for the record. I tend to fake a somewhat more insightful and observant townie ignorance than that.

I believe this.

CES - How many mafia do you think are left?

2. 90%+ sure of that too.[/quote]

Damn.

CES - I'm not a maths person, so I don't know the practical applications of Bayes' Theorem or whatever, but one of the reasons brought forth for why there was no mafia nightkill night one was because IaI was jailkept and that maybe he happened to be the one who was supposed to have performed the night kill that failed.

If we're going to accept that probability for why there was no night kill on night one, what is keeping us from accepting the probability that you were tracked on night four but just did not perform the kill for that night?

It's certainly a possibility - which is why it's evidence in favour of innocence and not proof of my innocence. If we assume a prior probability of me being scum of 50% (2 scum out of 4) and a probability of me making the nightkill in that situation of 50% (1 out of 2 scum), then Bayes' Theorem tells us that the tracker innocence should downgrade that probability to 33%.[/quote]

*head splits open*

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Damn.

You were asking because you hoped 1 left was a possibility?

[Tammy]

Damn.

You were asking because you hoped 1 left was a possibility?

Yep, I'm still holding out hope. There's been balance discussions here and in the neighborhood, but no real conclusion for whether it's 3 or 4 mafia. If there was a possibility of just one left, then the question of you would be a lot easier to answer.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

We're lynching fitzscum anyway, so it doesn't matter, but you can totally take my word for there being 2 scum, just fyi. I am a relevant authority.

[MagnaofIllusion]

See it's posts like this that have me doubting my earlier scum read of NS.

Please elaborate on your reasons here (regarding Post 662 originally, BTW).

--

Firstly CES – please elaborate why you find fitz scummy. I think your read is accurate but I’d love for you to elaborate on why given your slot has shown exactly zero interest in lynching him before today.

You're dodging the question in the same way as before. I don't care why you picked him; what I want to know is why it was worth using your shot at all. DV seems like a really unlikely kill.

No I’m hardly dodging the question you just don’t like the answer.

I don’t care about ‘likelyhood’ as a Doc. The heirachy of who to protect as a Doc for me is roughly –

Outted Town read important PowerRoles
Confirmed or Town read influential Townies (those actively and successfully scum-hunting)
Town read or possible Town read PowerRoles who may be Nightkilled.

Day 1 Jason was the only outed PR and I didn’t have any sort of Town read on him.
No such players in the second category since it was Day 1.
That left my Town reads as protect choices. RedCoyote exploded himself and Palisade as the leading wagon was not going to be Nightkilled. That left Deas who was my last Town read and gut PR read at my choice.

Including a Ninja just seems mean to the Tracker. Scum certainly don't seem to need one powerwise

First off – um whut? Ninja seems ‘mean’ to a tracker? I guess including a Godfather in a set-up is ‘mean’ to a Cop, right?

But as to scum ‘Not needing’ any other Powerroles let’s discuss your statement –

Town Roles

–

Vanilla Cop (which is proven to find any non-Investigation immune Mafia role via IAI)
Tracker
Jailkeeper
2 Shot Doc
FBI Agent
Neighborizor
5 VT (with 2 of the you also VT)

Versus

Serial Killer

Versus

Mafia Roles

–

Watcher
Goon
??? times 2 (assumed)

Is it your contention that the remaining scum players don’t have some other PowerRoles to offset the two Town investigation roles that could find them (Vanilla Cop directly detecting and the Tracker tracking), to offset the Jailkeeper and Doc who can prevent their kills?

"Null at best", really? Does that mean it's actually evidence against me at worst? What?

No it means your attempts to use percentages that have no relevance to the actual game (your invoking of Bayes Theory) don’t result in a ‘Town tell’ via the negative result.

If redFF had been a real bodyguard, they would have to work their way through him anyway, no?

Yes they would, and that further strengthens that the last scum are in the VT set. Scum had the choice to shoot either the Vanilla Cop who was slated to be Bodyguarded, the Jailkeeper, or the Tracker. All of which are dangerous to their long term chances at winning.

Yet the Scum chose to shoot Muffin first. Despite the planned protection (and you can argue about whether they knew at that stage that redFF was lying or not). So instead of killing the Tracker or Jailkeeper when shooting a protected Muffin (sans Strongman or other elements that we don’t know in the set-up as it stands) and having him actually protected means that they kill redFF (not a very strong player) and leave all three dangerous Town PRs alive another Night. So the inherent danger of Muffin’s role had to greatly outweight the dangers of leaving all three Town PRs alive another Night. That’s pretty clear evidence that the remaining scum are in the VT pool (to those not me, as I’m 100% sure since I know I’m Town and the rest of you are VT claims).

In fact the fact that Alice was killed last indicates that a Ninja is a strong possibility for one of the remaining scum roles.

--

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Firstly CES – please elaborate why you find fitz scummy. I think your read is accurate but I’d love for you to elaborate on why given your slot has shown exactly zero interest in lynching him before today.

Why are you bringing my "slot" into this? But sure - he said of both DY and redFF that if they were scum, they'd be the SK (which is a maybe for DY but definitely pretty out there for redFF). And there's this post wherein he takes for granted that Jason was a Watcher, which felt really out of place - not only was Mafia Self-Watcher more consistent with what we knew, it just wasn't at all obvious that Jason was telling the truth about his role as I saw it. There's also the fact that he voted for DV that Day and his posts that Day seem more focused on justifying his vote as logical than on getting other people to vote with him.

You're dodging the question in the same way as before. I don't care why you picked him; what I want to know is why it was worth using your shot at all. DV seems like a really unlikely kill.

No I’m hardly dodging the question you just don’t like the answer.

I know what question I'm asking and I assure you that it hasn't been answered. I'm perfectly willing to accept that you would've protected DV if you had been a full doc. But why, having narrowed it down to such an unlikely kill, did you protect him as a 2-shot?

Including a Ninja just seems mean to the Tracker. Scum certainly don't seem to need one powerwise

First off – um whut? Ninja seems ‘mean’ to a tracker? I guess including a Godfather in a set-up is ‘mean’ to a Cop, right?

Nope. That still gives the Cop plenty of viable targets and is just generally powerful enough that a GF is not that big a deal. But I would think most trackers try to catch the scum nightkill in progress and a ninja throws that straight out of the window.

But as to scum ‘Not needing’ any other Powerroles let’s discuss your statement –

Town Roles

–

Vanilla Cop (which is proven to find any non-Investigation immune Mafia role via IAI)
Tracker
Jailkeeper
2 Shot Doc
FBI Agent
Neighborizor
5 VT (with 2 of the you also VT)

Versus

Serial Killer

Versus

Mafia Roles

–

Watcher
Goon
??? times 2 (assumed)

Is it your contention that the remaining scum players don’t have some other PowerRoles to offset the two Town investigation roles that could find them (Vanilla Cop directly detecting and the Tracker tracking), to offset the Jailkeeper and Doc who can prevent their kills?

Yup. Town needs power to offset scum's inherent advantages. I see decent investigative power, some protective power (depends in part of your alignment) and some scum role-coppish power to compensate. Looks balanced to me with 2 Goons.

"Null at best", really? Does that mean it's actually evidence against me at worst? What?

No it means your attempts to use percentages that have no relevance to the actual game (your invoking of Bayes Theory) don’t result in a ‘Town tell’ via the negative result.

I'm modelling reasoning. That is very much relevant. (And if you want, you can estimate those percentages yourself and I'll tell you what the outcome is.)

If redFF had been a real bodyguard, they would have to work their way through him anyway, no?

Yes they would, and that further strengthens that the last scum are in the VT set. Scum had the choice to shoot either the Vanilla Cop who was slated to be Bodyguarded, the Jailkeeper, or the Tracker. All of which are dangerous to their long term chances at winning.

Yet the Scum chose to shoot Muffin first. Despite the planned protection (and you can argue about whether they knew at that stage that redFF was lying or not). So instead of killing the Tracker or Jailkeeper when shooting a protected Muffin (sans Strongman or other elements that we don’t know in the set-up as it stands) and having him actually protected means that they kill redFF (not a very strong player) and leave all three dangerous Town PRs alive another Night. So the inherent danger of Muffin’s role had to greatly outweight the dangers of leaving all three Town PRs alive another Night. That’s pretty clear evidence that the remaining scum are in the VT pool (to those not me, as I’m 100% sure since I know I’m Town and the rest of you are VT claims).

Whatever approach they took, scum wouldn't've been able to avoid shooting redFF if he had been a real bodyguard, so long term killing redFF is not at all problematic. Leaving the Tracker of Jailkeeper for one extra Night doesn't strike me as that big a deal in what was still a decently sized game, certainly not compared to the Vanilla Cop getting more innocent result on VTs.

In fact the fact that Alice was killed last indicates that a Ninja is a strong possibility for one of the remaining scum roles.

Nope. Jailkeeper and Vanilla Cop are more powerful roles inherently.

[Tammy]

I just realized that Alice's track of CES was on night three, before Jason was lynched, not on night four like I previously thought.