New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, I’m at gathering my thoughts on today –

As evidenced in my last general overview I’ve separated the playerbase into two sets of player – claimed PR and claimed VT.

PowerRoles

Alice
Ghostlin’s slot
redFF
DarthYoshi

Vanilla Town

DeasVail
Jon_h61
NobodySpecial
Havingfitz
Snake

These are my lists order in rough Town to Scum read order. Again, as I said in my earlier post I would rather lynch a VT over a Power-role today. I think muffin’s death post claim first despite directed protection says that more scum are in the VTs than in the Power-roles.

I’m happy with my Snake vote currently.

--

Ghostlin, I want to see more from you. I don't believe I've seen much from you recently.

Unfortunately Ghostlin has apparently site-flaked. Expect his replacement soon.

[Zachrulez]

4th vote count of day 5:

redff - 3 (havingfitz, Snakeplissken, Jon_h61)
DarthYoshi - 3 (Alicewondering, DeasVail, Nobody Special)
Snakeplissken - 1 (MagnaofIllusion)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (DarthYoshi)
Nobody Special - 1 (redFF)

Not Voting: (Ghostlin)

With 10 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Day 5 will end no later than Friday, April 13th at 6pm CST

[Zachrulez]

Will have to start looking for replacements for Snakeplissken and Ghostlin

[havingfitz]

Will have to start looking for replacements for Snakeplissken and Ghostlin

suck

[DarthYoshi]

/prod dodge. Sorry I dropped off the earth the last couple of days--RL got in the way. I'll catch up and have content later today.

[Nobody Special]

Given recent evidence, I just feel that Darth is our lynch for today. I just don't see how changing my mind in light of recent events is scummy.

[Alicewondering]

MOI, I get the feeling Snake is horribly lazy town, not scum.

[DarthYoshi]

All your other points are hackneyed re-statements of previous suspicions, and I seriously am so over them. When I flip town, you'll see how seriously you fucked up playing your role today.

PS: Fitz is right--people, remember what DV's claimed role his--he's claimed VT. What SK or scum role, aside from goon (or another killing role like hitman) would visit a claimed VT? DV, MOI--you guys have been openly speculating on what maf PR I could be. Which of those makes sense, except goon? The only way me as scum works is if Kamrun jailed DV last night, something that there is zero indication that they did. Use your heads.

1. How quaint an Appeal to Emotion - "when I flip Town you'll be sorry!"
2. This argument that you could only be a Goon and thus your role if proven is pretty farsical.

Fact 1 - Deas has been obliquely hinting that he might be a hidden power-role. Enough so that it might make sense as a Scum Roleblocker / Rolecop / Modified Framer (to frame him to Alice's track) for you to target him.

Fact 2 - Kamrun didn't hint anywhere (including per Ghostlin the Neighborhood QT they were in) as to what he was doing with their Jail. Dismissing Deas as a possible Jail target while simultaneously saying "There was lots of speculation about him being a Serial Killer" doesn't synch.

As to you being 'over' the discussion of what was perceived as slips on your Part Day 2 that doesn't mean everyone else who is scum hunting are. You've yet to explain why you assume a 4 person scum team still with your role being a 'Red Herring'. 5 scum is just as viable as 4 yet you haven't shown any indication that you have even considered it.

Yes, it is an AtE. I'm frustrated with how badly Alice is misinterpreting her results. It isn't that she is still wary I am scum, she is simply no longer capable of thinking that I am town, and I think for poor reasons. So, yes, it is AtE.

And no, it isn't farsical. I'm not dismissing DV as a jail target--of course he might have been jailed--but that it is still required for you to believe that Kamrun jailed him in order for me to be scum, and, as you said, Karmun didn't hint anywhere as to who they'd jail. So, again, for me to be scum, you have to buy into a completely unsubstantiated hypothetical.

that NS contradiction bandwagon hop is actually too much, vote:ns

Why did you need to think about it? You had already noticed it, why not vote NS right then?

Deas is by far a less likely scum-bag than either redFF or DarthYoshi. I thought I made that clear - the manner in which he was made the alternate wagon to Jason yesterday means he's pretty much unlikely to Mafia.

I don't actually think it is clear at all. The way DV behaved on D1 vis-a-vis Jason read as purposely noncommittal so that he could bus him if he needed to, but didn't want to seem connected to him at all--I remember this distinctly because that was part of my original case on DV. So once the writing on the wall became clear, it would be easier to bus. Do you think that Jason WASN'T bussed?

@jon: Can you rank your suspicions of DV, NS, and me?

redFF, you do realize that NS is probably not the lynch for today?

Why are you encouraging a compromise wagon when deadline is still nearly two weeks away?

Given recent evidence, I just feel that Darth is our lynch for today.

What "recent evidence" is this? The only *new* argument that Alice is making is that my investigation targets sucked, but I refuted it and she didn't bother to argue the point, and MOI and (especially) DV at this point are basically piggybacking off of Alice.

[Alicewondering]

My case on you doesn't require DV to have been jailed. My case on you revolves around the fact that you hinted at knowing how many people were on the scum team, which no town should have known. And this knowledge is in direct contradiction with your claim.

[DarthYoshi]

My case on you doesn't require DV to have been jailed. My case on you revolves around the fact that you hinted at knowing how many people were on the scum team, which no town should have known. And this knowledge is in direct contradiction with your claim.

Your case doesn't require that DV be jailed but me being scum does. Although MOI gets around that by suggesting that I'm, say, a rolecop (even though with a maf investigative role already flipped, and a powerful role at that, it would seem unlikely).

I'm not saying your case requires DV to have been jailed. I'm saying that my alignment almost assuredly does, and that you're ignoring that crucial piece of evidence. Even if you think I'm scum based on my "knowing" how many maf there are, when contradicting evidence arises, you need to be able to recognize it accordingly.

[Alicewondering]

Mafia roleblock is a possibility.

DY, you still have failed to address the contradictions in your claim. Why did you say that the scumteam had 4 people as an FBI agent?

[DarthYoshi]

Mafia roleblock is a possibility.

DY, you still have failed to address the contradictions in your claim. Why did you say that the scumteam had 4 people as an FBI agent?

BECAUSE NO OTHER POSSIBILITY MADE SENSE WITH AN SK.

12:5:1 is very scum-sided.

14:3:1 is very town-sided.

13:2:2:1 is a town-sided clusterfuck.

Barring some extraordinary PRs, none of those setups would likely have gotten approved for balance.

Oy.

[DarthYoshi]

PS: So, basically, I'm a maf RB or I'm town? Doesn't one seem a little more likely than the other? I mean, when you're having to resort to blindly guessing IN A CLOSED SETUP someone's PR in order for them to be scum, shouldn't that tell you that you're grasping for straws?

[Alicewondering]

Mafia roleblock is a possibility.

DY, you still have failed to address the contradictions in your claim. Why did you say that the scumteam had 4 people as an FBI agent?

BECAUSE NO OTHER POSSIBILITY MADE SENSE WITH AN SK.

12:5:1 is very scum-sided.

14:3:1 is very town-sided.

13:2:2:1 is a town-sided clusterfuck.

Barring some extraordinary PRs, none of those setups would likely have gotten approved for balance.

Oy.

O___O YOU DO KNOW THAT SK IS CONSIDERED SCUM TOO, just another separate one-man scumteam. I don't even understand what 13:2:2:1 is.

UNVOTE:

because your posting had previous given me misgivings that I had ignored due to the strength of the evidence of your bad claim. However, it seems that you genuinely did not define SK as scumteam. O__O

I am willing to wait till tomorrow on this. Let me think a bit on who is scum then.

[DeasVail]

Hmm, it's not like he would have considered how unlikely all the other possibilities were when he mentioned there being a 4 man scumteam.

[Nobody Special]

What does that even mean?

[DarthYoshi]

What does that even mean?

Hey, NS, how 'bout you answer my question, pleeze?

However, it seems that you genuinely did not define SK as scumteam. O__O

Well...yeah. An SK is NOT on the same "team" as the scum/mafia, ergo while an SK is, like the maf, anti-town, s/he is NOT part of the "scumteam." An SK is not on the same side as the maf.

Good grief.

[Nobody Special]

Recent evidence being that stuff that Alice said.

And, you know, the high probability that you're actually the SK and faked the role to throw us off.

My vote stays.

[DarthYoshi]

Recent evidence being that stuff that Alice said.

And, you know, the high probability that you're actually the SK and faked the role to throw us off.

My vote stays.

You mean the stuff that Alice said and I refuted? Or the fact that she has since backed off and unvoted?

And yeah--def a high probability that I am the SK with 4 straight one-flips.

Sigh.

[havingfitz]

Recent evidence being that stuff that Alice said.

And, you know, the high probability that you're actually the SK and faked the role to throw us off.

My vote stays.

I need to catch from the weekend ...I think MOI had some posts worth comment. This NS post get one first though.

If you believe this NS, then you must also believe Kamrun kept either DY or DV. If that was the case that would mean you also believe redFF is lying. That would make a red vote more correct than a DY or DV vote.

More red votes please.

[DeasVail]

Fitz, I don't believe at all that I was a kill target.

And I know it seems unlikely, but I just feel that DY is scum!

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOI, I get the feeling Snake is horribly lazy town, not scum.

I’ll agree he’s horribly useless regardless of his alignment.

What do you think about my “Muffin dying early means scum in VT” theory?

--

And no, it isn't farsical. I'm not dismissing DV as a jail target--of course he might have been jailed--but that it is still required for you to believe that Kamrun jailed him in order for me to be scum, and, as you said, Karmun didn't hint anywhere as to who they'd jail. So, again, for me to be scum, you have to buy into a completely unsubstantiated hypothetical.

Lack of documentation of Kamrun’s actions does not mean that we can’t draw logical conclusions. Furthermore as already discussed the possibility of Roleblocker / Modified Framer hardly means Deas has to be jailed for Alice’s result on you to be accurate.

I don't actually think it is clear at all. The way DV behaved on D1 vis-a-vis Jason read as purposely noncommittal so that he could bus him if he needed to, but didn't want to seem connected to him at all--I remember this distinctly because that was part of my original case on DV. So once the writing on the wall became clear, it would be easier to bus. Do you think that Jason WASN'T bussed?

Of course you don’t think so.

Where did I say there was no possibility that Jason was bussed? The point is not that Jason was bussed. The point is that BOTH dominant wagons yesterday were both scum. Jason was a walking deadman IMO. If he was going to be power-bussed the odds that a counter wagon would form on another Mafia member is pretty slim. Do you disagree?

Honestly the fact that your play since we have been restored can be summarized as follows –

1. Vote Deas over Jason.
2. Try your hardest to say I should be lynched for “Title WIFOM”
3. Trying hard to suggest Deas is more likely Mafia scum than others

makes me very willing to lynch you today.

[Alicewondering]

I’ll agree he’s horribly useless regardless of his alignment.

What do you think about my “Muffin dying early means scum in VT” theory?

Eh, I think it has some merit, for sure. But I think it was more of a case of Muffin being more obvtown than any other claimed PR. With Jason still unflipped, there was a chance that scum could get me mislynched. When Kamrun died, my thought was that I was less obvtown than Kamrun. Now then, let's turn to NS, who suggested early in the day that he didn't think I was necessarily obvtown. I hadn't really considered the NKs, but now, I think that this was potentially scum testing waters for my mislynch.

Fitz, I don't believe at all that I was a kill target.

And I know it seems unlikely, but I just feel that DY is scum!

Oh okay, mind explaining that?

At this point, let me explain my thought process. I'm really, really working mainly based on gut from the feeling I get from posts. I know this isn't necessarily helpful to everyone, but I've found it to be very accurate, at least when I have gut townreads.

redFF and DarthYoshi's posting have read to me as town recently. DarthYoshi's posts seem to be frustrated townie trying to convince people he's town. redFF feels town too, though I don't have that strong of an impression on him.

Who I'm currently considering now for scum is NS and DV. As I mentioned earlier, NS could have been testing his waters with an Alice mislynch. His sudden increase in activity was to be noted as well.

DV is someone I'm not so sure about, but there are several reasons that I don't think DV is necessarily town. One is for meta reasons. I've played 4 games with DV--2 scum and 2 town, and I don't see a huge difference between his town and scum play. However, there are slight, subtle differences that I picked up on D3 (I think). Long time ago, but it gave me pause, especially DY's case on DV. I vaguely remembering expressing some weak suspicion of him there, but I guess that I just dropped it for a DY case. Okay, so look at the above quote for DV. The DY lynch seems to be failing, and NS and DV are both trying to prop it up desperately.

I'm going to go on a limb and trust my instinct because I've second guessed my intuition to my later regret and chagrin.

VOTE: Nobody Special I would be willing to switch to DV if that is the general consensus.

I'm calling an NS/DV scumteam today. If NS flips scum today, please vote DV tomorrow.

[Alicewondering]

Where did I say there was no possibility that Jason was bussed? The point is not that Jason was bussed. The point is that BOTH dominant wagons yesterday were both scum. Jason was a walking deadman IMO. If he was going to be power-bussed the odds that a counter wagon would form on another Mafia member is pretty slim. Do you disagree?

I commented on this yesterday, and this is not addressed to me, but I feel like I should add in here that it is HIGHLY likely mafia took a gambit here and counterwagoned DV to make it look like their alignments were opposite. It's actually genius, especially since if DV got lynched and flipped scum, it basically guaranteed that Jason was town watcher. If Jason got flipped as scum, DV would supposedly be conf-town, though that was not really true. I think I'm going to reread how that day went to see who supported which wagon and how they did it...

[redFF]

I'm not comfortable lynching someone a flipped scum JUST set up a 1v1 with..

It makes no sense, even if jason had managed to get DV lynched, jason would have died so soon it wouldn't have been worth it..