Newbie 1198: Mafia on Holiday (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 4.03

Not Voting (3) - ThursdayAngel, Voidedmafia, Zenatsu

With 3 alive, it's 2 to lynch.

The deadline is Tuesday, April 3, 2012, at 6:29 PM EDT (UTC-4).

[Zenatsu]

The way I see it, it can go two ways. Depending on how the day starts (those critical 2-4 posts of the day)

1) Scum comes out of the gates with a claim on someone else being scum. Forcing a defense case, and trying to manipulate the 3rd to see the scums reasons and get him on his side. After that, it would become a back and forth between the town and scum going at it until the 3rd can make sense of things, or a cross vote happens.
Result: Scum vs town, with a Scum-Town cross vote

2) Scum acts more passive, and waits for a case to come out before attacking/defending. By this passive play hes putting off slightly just to keep tension up, and while the town is still finding out who is who, it can erupt to a Town vs Town. Then they cross, and its game over.
Result: Town vs Town, with a Town-Town cross vote

The second one sounds a little finniky, but its kinda weird to explain. Basically the scum sits back and lets town fight it out.

[Zenatsu]

@mod: Also, Dammit equinox, i wanted the first. You were supposed to be V/LA dammit!

♥♥♥

[Voidedmafia]

Zen...Explain to me how exclaiming "Goddammit, Brin" is subtle damage control, again? You're making no sense here...

Also 424 doesn't talk about being sure of his townreads. That's talking more about why he believes Ziggler should be lynched.

TA: Did you miss where I said I finished reading?

P-EDIT: First option is of equal risk if the 3rd person has suspicions on both you and the other town, as his/her opinions could just as likely swing to you as to the town. It's safest for you if the 3rd person already suspected the other town already and, if you hadn't pressured the other town beforehand, doesn't suspect your sudden push (you can say that that wouldn't be a factor, but I'd still be wary of out-of-the-blue pushes that aren't a result of necessary re-reads), and obviously it's riskiest if the 3rd person suspects you more.

The 2nd option, as you did kinda say, is more risky. Sure, you can hope that the town argue enough that one votes the other, but they could realize that the other isn't town and then focus on you instead. Since you're almost in no way in control of the conversation, you're just hoping you're town enough of their eyes (or at least one's eyes) that you can get away.

Of course, both options have their places in games, but it would seem that the 2nd would be the option that would've been used earlier in the restart. However, as of now, the 1st option is a better choice. I mean, think about it if I'm not scum: the last scum is hoping that the other of you two doesn't find some towntell or townslip from me that would put me out of the lynch zone and then you'd be next via PoE, whereas if you either stuck with the 1st option or switched to it, even if I'm not the last scum you can still push me as being the last scum and potentially keep the other person from seeing that towntell/slip or whatever to make me town.

That does leave the question of which one is being used by scum nearer the restart and now, of course, which I'm not quite sure of just yet.

[ThursdayAngel]

TA: Did you miss where I said I finished reading?

Yes, yes, I did. Sorry. I think the sentence construction was odd enough to make me think that you were saying that you didn't vote because you haven't caught up yet. Apologies.

Anyway it's been a long day for me, I have to head to bed now. I'll make some replies soon.

[Voidedmafia]

Oh, forgot about this.

> Brin's offensive style at the start of the day can be understood as scummy if we were to accept the premise that scum's best interest is to vote asap. What have you to say to that, Voided?

Actually, it isn't in their best interest to do that, imo. If another vote is already placed, then yes it is for the quickhammer and win, but if there's no votes to quickhammer off of, they're still in danger.

[ThursdayAngel]

Oh, forgot about this.

> Brin's offensive style at the start of the day can be understood as scummy if we were to accept the premise that scum's best interest is to vote asap. What have you to say to that, Voided?

Actually, it isn't in their best interest to do that, imo. If another vote is already placed, then yes it is for the quickhammer and win, but if there's no votes to quickhammer off of, they're still in danger.

I think I clarified my wording in posts later than the one you quoted. Anyway what I meant was not to "vote" asap, but to "start the voting" asap, so that (if he were scum) he could quickhammer.

[Voidedmafia]

Ah, okay. Yes, that's very true. Though, that seems to be a null tell here since, as far as I can tell, none of us overly pushed for voting early on, and it's only happening now because the deadline is so close. If you think you can make something of it, more power to you, but I really don't see much use in trying to apply that.

[ThursdayAngel]

Ah, okay. Yes, that's very true. Though, that seems to be a null tell here since, as far as I can tell, none of us overly pushed for voting early on, and it's only happening now because the deadline is so close. If you think you can make something of it, more power to you, but I really don't see much use in trying to apply that.

I agree, I agree. I'm actually having difficulty to make the final decision on my vote, but I'm on my way there.

[Voidedmafia]

Zen sees me scummier than you.

I see you scummier than Zen by PoE.

You see me scummier than Zen, last I checked. Shouldn't be that hard a choice -_-.

[ThursdayAngel]

Zen sees me scummier than you.

I see you scummier than Zen by PoE.

You see me scummier than Zen, last I checked. Shouldn't be that hard a choice -_-.

Yeah, it's not *that* hard a choice. I just wanted to see if all the bases are covered.

[ThursdayAngel]

Don't worry, I'm writing up my final cases and I'll drop my vote when I post them very soon.

[ThursdayAngel]

Time for me to lay down the first vote!

Zenatsu has lots of perceived town intent in his posts. He has very well-reasoned, logical and thought-out content that generally favors scumhunting. He had a generally suspicious-of-others playstyle, which I think might be hard to fake if he were scum, because it looks to me like scum is generally more manipulative than wary.

The whole Askesis-Zenatsu fight in the early game led me to think both were scummy. Askesis had a similar style to Zenatsu: aggressive, interrogating. Zenatsu seemed to not yet have a good grasp of the game in the beginning, hence Askesis pushing him. Zenatsu being too defensive against his meta looked scummy, as hiding information (except for roles) is most likely anti-town. However Askesis was too tunnel-visioned and obsessed with shallow matters to seem legitimately town.

Zenatsu has attacked my position several times, and even if sometimes I don't agree with him (like how valuable this and that is), he has frequently stated info and logical conclusions that made him look like town. And he has done this again and again and again. Askesis also looks like he has some town intent, but not as much as Zen (this could possibly be because Askesis wasn't as active?). Actually Zen and Askesis are close (on the scum-o-meter I suppose) but Zen is slightly more town than Askesis. I don't particularly like either, but one is slightly better than the other.

Now let's go to Brinatoo. Comparing Zen and Brinatoo, we see that both were on townlynches, so it's probably not a very good balance scale. Brin entered the game a bit timidly. He posted a few bits, always promising content, but rarely delivering quickly and with much content. I don't know how he is in other games, but this game he didn't do very well in the posting department. The whole Zen-Brin fight was a wasteful set of posts that provided no insight at all. In the meantime, Zen was trying to force info (which is pro-town) but Brin later just walled himself up and stopped contributing entirely. Brin said he is frustrated when people say he lacked content (post 544); he said that content is having opinions at the very least. I'm not buying this very well; it's like a less obvious lurking.

Now we go to Voided. Voided seems to be a much better player imo. I think he replaced into a very bad slot, and is trying to do his best with damage control. However, some of his one-liners are very suspect. (Goddammit, Brin!) There's not much to go on Day 4, but Zen is giving a townread on this day (due to his good, logical rebuttal to me) and Voided a very slight scumread.

Funny, Brin also mentioned in post 491: "This is looking so much like my last game." Reminded me of Voided. I don't know what to make of that. Is scum more memorable than town?

Anyway, I'm putting down the first vote now. VOTE: VoidedMafia.

[Voidedmafia]

*much better player*

Well, I suppose over Brin, but, eh...

He does have a point, though: Having opinions IS content. It's not necessarily GOOD content, yes, but it's still content. I think he also walled up because he might've been thinking that since Zen wasn't even trying to take him seriously he just wasn't going to try, or something like that. It did look like he was going to come back at beginning of D4, but then he flaked after the restart, so who knows what would've happened.

Re 491: Depends on how good or bad the games were. Though, those games I mentioned are pretty much the only Newbie games whose numbers I directly remember (except my completed Newbie I modded and the one i'm doing now, 1194 (lost in the crash) and 1222 (post-crash)). THe rest are non-newbies, though, so I guess that's easier.

re slight scumread: Is is just a culmination of one-liners, or what? Also, Zen never did say how exactly that was in any way subtle.

[ThursdayAngel]

*much better player*

Well, I suppose over Brin, but, eh...

He does have a point, though: Having opinions IS content. It's not necessarily GOOD content, yes, but it's still content. I think he also walled up because he might've been thinking that since Zen wasn't even trying to take him seriously he just wasn't going to try, or something like that. It did look like he was going to come back at beginning of D4, but then he flaked after the restart, so who knows what would've happened.

Re 491: Depends on how good or bad the games were. Though, those games I mentioned are pretty much the only Newbie games whose numbers I directly remember (except my completed Newbie I modded and the one i'm doing now, 1194 (lost in the crash) and 1222 (post-crash)). THe rest are non-newbies, though, so I guess that's easier.

re slight scumread: Is is just a culmination of one-liners, or what? Also, Zen never did say how exactly that was in any way subtle.

Yes, I meant over Brin. At least in this game, I suppose.

You have a point, but I think the walling is anti-town. Zen wasn't the only player in the game.

Yeah that's more or less it. You were bordering null today, and it's to be expected given the short time you have been in the game. But that exclamation was suspicious, it seemed like you were trying to give the effect of "Brin why'd you have to destroy a town slot" because that was my first, unconscious reaction to that line. But after rereading it, I realized that that could have been your intended effect. (You were saying before that it's better than "I HATE MY PREDECESSOR", but just because it's better doesn't mean there's nothing to be said about it.)

Anyway, my vote is not just based on your slot, it of course also includes the previous slots. Actually, their slots have more weight in my vote than your slot is, especially since I haven't been able to glean any new reads from either of you today.

[Voidedmafia]

Well, nevermind the fact that I think he did according the PM I got, but the point was that Brin didn't do himself any favors with his opening posts, and I quite bluntly stated as such. Yes, it's not as blatant as yelling "I HATE MY PREDECESSOR!" (though that's certainly implied) and obviously a bit more subtle than the latter, but to say that that was in any way a subtle attempt at damage control period feels way too much like mudslinging and misrepping. If I or anyone else wanted to go for subtle damage control, I would probably word my post a lot more tactfully and at least make the hate not be as evident.

That 2nd sentence confuses me a little, though.

[Voidedmafia]

Though, I'd trust Zen would let me argue against anything else he had to say before hammering me. Scumread or no, I should still get to have my say before you make me sway, no? (cwutIdidthar?)

[ThursdayAngel]

Well, nevermind the fact that I think he did according the PM I got, but the point was that Brin didn't do himself any favors with his opening posts, and I quite bluntly stated as such. Yes, it's not as blatant as yelling "I HATE MY PREDECESSOR!" (though that's certainly implied) and obviously a bit more subtle than the latter, but to say that that was in any way a subtle attempt at damage control period feels way too much like mudslinging and misrepping. If I or anyone else wanted to go for subtle damage control, I would probably word my post a lot more tactfully and at least make the hate not be as evident.

That 2nd sentence confuses me a little, though.

I agree, it could have been a misrep. That's why I'm not saying that it was a giant red flag that definitively points to you being scum. It's just a small thing, and if anything, had very little effect on my vote. This means that taking that whole thing away, I would still have voted you.

Ah, sorry, I should have worded it better. I meant that Askesis' and Brin's gameplay had more weight in my vote than your play today, since I virtually have null reads from both you and Zen today.

[Voidedmafia]

...Well, fine, I'll just say it anyways.

I HATE MY PREDECESSORS!!

...Actually, that felt pretty good. Who knew?

Though, out of curiousity, let's say I replaced Zen instead of Brin. Assuming my play, reads and posts up to this point were generally the same, and I had still made that comment (though obviously it wouldn't be about something at the beginning since you two are the only two left from the original start), what would you think about me then?

[Voidedmafia]

Actually, I just figured something. Vote zen for now. You can change it later after the VC reflects the vote (though I'd prefer not right after, of course), but I'd just like you to vote Zen for the night.

"But VM, why are you suddenly asking him to change his vote now, of all times? You look so scummy right now!" Yes, yes, I know, I know. But really, assuming Zen stays on for most of today, this game will be over by then, and if TA is town and wants to win, this is his chance.

Besides, if you ARE scum, TA, you can just quickhammer after Zen votes me, so it shoulnd't be any loss to you either way.

[Voidedmafia]

"But Voided, aren't you just trying to save your own neck?!" (and threatening to start spamposting <_<). I don't care about saving my neck right now. That was no longer a goal after my catch-up was finish, and as it stands I'm going to get lynched anyways if I don't try this (or even if I do). My goal now is to win this game for the town, and I think this will work.

What say you, TA?

[Voidedmafia]

And you better not have just gone to bed -_-.

[ThursdayAngel]

Sorry, I stepped out.

...Well, fine, I'll just say it anyways.

I HATE MY PREDECESSORS!!

...Actually, that felt pretty good. Who knew?

Though, out of curiousity, let's say I replaced Zen instead of Brin. Assuming my play, reads and posts up to this point were generally the same, and I had still made that comment (though obviously it wouldn't be about something at the beginning since you two are the only two left from the original start), what would you think about me then?

I would probably think the same way. I entered D4 with a very suspicious attitude towards both of you; actually I leaned more to Zenscum than Brinscum at first.

Actually, I just figured something. Vote zen for now. You can change it later after the VC reflects the vote (though I'd prefer not right after, of course), but I'd just like you to vote Zen for the night.

"But VM, why are you suddenly asking him to change his vote now, of all times? You look so scummy right now!" Yes, yes, I know, I know. But really, assuming Zen stays on for most of today, this game will be over by then, and if TA is town and wants to win, this is his chance.

Besides, if you ARE scum, TA, you can just quickhammer after Zen votes me, so it shoulnd't be any loss to you either way.

I will not be changing it to Zen "for now." Why? Because right now I think you're scummier than him, and I'm risking a scum quickhammer by changing it to him.

But *if* you are town, it wouldn't hurt to unvote you. I'm still eyeing you, but I don't know what your plan is, so UNVOTE: VoidedMafia.

[Voidedmafia]

I understand your worries of a quickhammer, but I do feel this is largely a win-win for you.

A.) You can ignore my plan, revote me, and let Zen hammer me like I imagine he intends to do, and whichever of you is scum can ride away with the victory

OR

B.) You vote him, wait a day-ish (or at least until you know I'm here and I've looked at the thread), and then revote me after that. Again, Zen's still probably gonna vote me when he gets up anyways, and if you're scum you can then just quickhammer me to oblivion, and Zen can't do any shenanigans if he's scum since I'm not voting and your vote's on him.

Pretty clear-cut, but if you want me to prove my towniness, this is a plan that, while risky, will win us the game. 'Course, it all boils down to if you trust me or not, but meh.

In fact, I'm extending this to both of you. Hell, cross-vote if you want to. No matter what, this game ends today, so it just depends on how you want it to go.

So, like I said: Fate is in your hands, Zenatsu, ThursdayAngel.

[Voidedmafia]

I mean, if you can point out where either you-scum or Zen-scum lose outside of the reward I'm expecting from this (because the reward is obviously something that will be the death of scum), then by all means do so while we're both awake and coherent.