Newbie 1198: Mafia on Holiday (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 4.02

Not Voting (3) - ThursdayAngel, Voidedmafia, Zenatsu

With 3 alive, it's 2 to lynch.

The deadline is Tuesday, April 3, 2012, at 6:29 PM EDT (UTC-4).

[ThursdayAngel]

So I'm almost halfway through my review of the thread (and I've been reading in reverse, I don't know why.) I'm still on the way back to the Askesis posts, but I'm not there yet. I'm still at page 22 going back to 1.

All I can really say about Brinatoo is that he has contributed virtually nothing at all. What I can say is that even if he had a spat with Zen, it isn't reason enough for him to suddenly disappear off-grid and lurk. He can very well converse with the other players, and ignore Zen's general belligerence. Scummy points to Brinatoo.

Zen, Post 640, about No Lynch: Zen asks about the theory behind a no lynch, and says that it's good for town because it's 1 less town that died. BB counters by saying that it's bad for town because scum gets to pick two kills. Does this indicate that Zen wanted a no-lynch? I think Zen's post had a more town intent to it, rather than a sneaky suggestion to no lynch. There seemed to be a genuine "what is best for town" inquiry. I think this gives a few townie points to Zen.

Zen, Post 535: He warns us about voting against Rubicon. Rubicon turned up town. I'm doubting this was a reverse bus (am I using the term correct? I meant that this probably wasn't Zen trying to accrue townie points by trying to prevent a town lynch.) The reason why I feel this is so is that Zen, in a later post, also does the same to Pizza (tells us that Pizza might be town), but also changes his mind even later and says that lynching Pizza who is most likely town will give more info for town. I think what I just said in this paragraph might be a little confusing, but essentially what I'm saying is that Zen seemed to have the best interests for town in mind, in his posts.

Conclusion to the last two paragraphs: Overall, if one takes time to read them, Zen's predictions and arguments seem to be based on a town sentiment. It is unfortunate that Zen still has some scummy traits (argument 1 and 3, as outlined in my attacking post in this day; only argument 2 was rebutted well to turn that point to a Zen=town sentiment), so Zen is definitely not on either extreme of his scum-o-meter.

Voided, I don't have much to ask you since you just replaced in, but please keep posting as you read through the thread. I do feel that your slot is the scummier of the two now though.

[Voidedmafia]

I think you mean cross-bus.

Haa...This is the kind of position that I hate to be in (doubly so because I've already had one game like this in Newbie 1067, I think), but I'ma just gonna live with it and work around it.

Re No Lynch: Given the state of the town at the time (Two scum alive, doc is dead, nearing a MyLo/Lylo situation), No Lynch is definitely NOT a good idea. Maybe if one scum was already dead or the doc was still alive, but in that state you want to avoid MyLo or Lylo as much as possible. I won't say it's scummy to suggest it, but it's certainly not worth townpoints.

Re 535: Just because you warn against voting someone shouldn't give townpoints in and of itself; I could warn you away from every town mislynch that happened, but that's no garauntee of lucky town or calculating scum. Wanting to lynch to get more info is a kinda-okay reason, but again, not townie in and of itself. I'll give you the townpoints for one of the two as a culmination, as both of those reasons together do have town sentiments to them, but not for both. Not strong enough for that.

[Zenatsu]

Zen, Post 640, about No Lynch: Zen asks about the theory behind a no lynch, and says that it's good for town because it's 1 less town that died. BB counters by saying that it's bad for town because scum gets to pick two kills. Does this indicate that Zen wanted a no-lynch? I think Zen's post had a more town intent to it, rather than a sneaky suggestion to no lynch. There seemed to be a genuine "what is best for town" inquiry. I think this gives a few townie points to Zen.

I asked BBmolla about no lynching because he was pushing really hard about it. I was genuinely confused about the perils of no lynching. But to my memory (not reading back) I do not think the town had lynched its doctor yet. But of we did then it was the day after. I just wanted to know the theory behind "Never no-lynch, ever".

Zen, Post 535: He warns us about voting against Rubicon. Rubicon turned up town. I'm doubting this was a reverse bus (am I using the term correct? I meant that this probably wasn't Zen trying to accrue townie points by trying to prevent a town lynch.) The reason why I feel this is so is that Zen, in a later post, also does the same to Pizza (tells us that Pizza might be town), but also changes his mind even later and says that lynching Pizza who is most likely town will give more info for town. I think what I just said in this paragraph might be a little confusing, but essentially what I'm saying is that Zen seemed to have the best interests for town in mind, in his posts.

When we lynched rubicon, I had a feeling we were 1 of 2 things. 1) town going crazy and killing each other 2) being led by the mafia. So reading on rubi's ISO alone, and looking back at the other lynched we had. I mad the assumption we were about to lynch another town.

In regards to pizza. I was being tossed in "Lynch pizza!! DO ET NOW!" from rayfrost, and "YOU FOOLS!" from pizza. This was the part where I caught myself (being the hammer) flopping between my decisions too much, and I had to be stern on what I wanted to do. But I felt that if we had lynched pizza, it would give us better information than random lynching another player (at the time). It pretty much sold Rayfrost as scum.

Conclusion to the last two paragraphs: Overall, if one takes time to read them, Zen's predictions and arguments seem to be based on a town sentiment. It is unfortunate that Zen still has some scummy traits (argument 1 and 3, as outlined in my attacking post in this day; only argument 2 was rebutted well to turn that point to a Zen=town sentiment), so Zen is definitely not on either extreme of his scum-o-meter.

Voided, I don't have much to ask you since you just replaced in, but please keep posting as you read through the thread. I do feel that your slot is the scummier of the two now though.

Everything I have done was on town sentiment. But not everyone else gave clear town reads. Which lead to mislynched, which lead to our situation today.

---

I think you mean cross-bus.

Haa...This is the kind of position that I hate to be in (doubly so because I've already had one game like this in Newbie 1067, I think), but I'ma just gonna live with it and work around it.

I read this as "HA! I was once a scum walking into a game in this situation before". Also, you were

not

in Newbie 1067.

[Voidedmafia]

Actually, I was town, and I can never remember all my Newbie games correctly <_< (Except 1060 and 1155, which were my first game and my best newbie scumgame, respectively). The point was, I've been here before, and I don't like it.

Also, did you forget you lynched your doc D1 in Ziggler?

[Equinox]

*poke*

[Voidedmafia]

*poke*

I never lose the poking game, Equi! muahahaha!

*ahem* anyways, for something contentful, BB v TA in regards to BB's comments about scum being one on/one off is okay, but is overall null because we do know now that at least one scum was on the D1 wagon (RayFrost), and if BB is correct in that regard, then the last scum must be you, TA. However, to allevate that, it could just as well be that Zen and Ray were riding the easy mislynch in Ziggler (thus having both scum on the wagon). Hell, it could even be me/Ray (it's obviously not FMPOV, but you get my point).

Zen's comment (and your agreement, TA) about BB "tripping over his own feet" would make sense if this was his first IC game (I'm not sure about that, though, and I'm too lazy to look, so), if that's not the case it's still rather spot-on in regards to BB's play up to that point.

Also, goddammit, Brin. -_-

[Voidedmafia]

But srs guys, cmon. I know it's LyLo, you both are getting exhausted after the crash, but staying away from the game won't make it end any sooner, so let's go.

[ThursdayAngel]

But srs guys, cmon. I know it's LyLo, you both are getting exhausted after the crash, but staying away from the game won't make it end any sooner, so let's go.

Sorry about that. I totally forgot about the game.

Do you have any more questions for me though?

[ThursdayAngel]

Also, goddammit, Brin. -_-

Elaborate on this?

[Equinox]

Zenatsu has been prodded.

[Zenatsu]

Also, goddammit, Brin. -_-

Elaborate on this?

Im getting scum reads.

[Voidedmafia]

Also, goddammit, Brin. -_-

Elaborate on this?

Didn't like his entry into the game at all.

*sigh* getting to a meaty portion here in D2 with Rubi, TA, and Zen, and my head's just not screwed on right, but I think I can still make something of it.

501 is wrong. Not so much because TA messed up his point, but because I just don't see it as that big a deal. ON THE OTHER HAND, while I do dislike voting off of gut-feels alone mid/late-game, I fail to see why the turnaround is wrong, or at least this particular turnaround, nor why him gut-voting in this instance is necessarily bad. I know that not all quick turnarounds are town, but they aren't all scummy either, and it reads like, "oh crap, I just completely mangled my read on him" rather than, "Oh crap, my attack failed and now I'll look scummy for it!". Also, gut-voting and trying to explain the gut-vote makes it a lot better than just voting off gut.

Dunno why Zen admitted he was doing horrible in 535. Slight scumpoints there.

Finally bit on 535: Hilarious in HIndsight based on the last line in the post.
His bashing of TA's case on Rubi is blunted by the misrepping he does in the next quote (or exaggeration, or w/e). There is a condition on there that hadn't been met at that point (that being that Pizza had to post nothing useful to switch), so if Rubi is his other suspicion (no matter what we think of his case), why is it necessarily a bad thing to vote based on it?

542, 2nd half: Because he's town in his eyes, thus voting him makes no sense from his view?

537: Uh, where were your other posts on Rubiscum again? I think there were some, but I don't have the time right now to go back through 20+ pages to find it (I only have enough time to compile this post, eat, MAYBE take a shower before I have to head to work), so if you could give post numbers or something that'd be helpful.

Zen, your lurking and Pizza's lurking are different because, while you have lurked, you've still been giving good content to work with. Pizza? Not so much. For the most part, lurking can be generally excused so long as you're still making an effort to bring content to the table when you do come to the surface, which you have done. Also, there's this from 540:

> Also, you said that you had a weird week, which I assumed was the reason for your lack of posting *recently*. Oppose this to pizza's lack of posting *in general*, and you will see why you didn't trigger my radar.

Brin's 544 was good stuff, coming from him, anyways.

And finally, good job calling out BB for his waffling again, Zen. This has been giving you townpoints for a bit, and to see that you're still pushing him on this subject is further enforcing those townpoints.

[ThursdayAngel]

Also, goddammit, Brin. -_-

Elaborate on this?

Im getting scum reads.

I felt the same way. The instant I saw it, I got instant warning exclamation points in my head. Looks like scum trying to subtly sneak in some damage control, to me at least.

However, I don't know what it feels like to replace into someone. His original quote seemed scummy, but I don't know how to read his

reply

.

[ThursdayAngel]

Also, Voided is giving mixed signals. He has dropped some scummy comments, some null reads. But his diligence to read and analyze gives him a lot of town points. Oppose this to Zen who has been prodded in this day, and I cannot help but ask whether Zen is scum who has already seen the game decided and stacked against Void, and therefore is just laying back.

[Voidedmafia]

If I wanted damage control, it'd be better to be more subtle about.. Slightly WIFOM, but it is a lot better than yelling out, "I HATE MY PREDECESSOR!", don't you think?

As for how replacing in feels, it just depends. Sometimes you get to replace into good spots as town or scum where you just have to hope that you don't screw up what your predecessor did (like what Brin's apparantly failed to do for Askesis, or for a self-meta example, my replacing into Marketplace Mafia where my slot stayed pretty townie throughout the game). Sometimes you replace into an okay slot that isn't suspected but isn't lauded, or replacing early enough into a game that your predecessor's play doesn't have much of an effect (Newbie 1097, for example, where I replaced around page 5 and played for the rest of game and my predecessor didn't have much of a prescence; or the aforementioned Newibe 1155 where the person I replaced was roughly null to everyone else but I managed to pull off some excellent scumplay that was only marred by a bad choice to no-kill N2). And sometimes, you get games like this where you replace into spots where it's either nearly impossible or VERY hard to pull yourself out. (two biggest examples of mine are Newbie 1079 and Artemis Fowl Mafia) That's pretty much the range of feelings for replacing in, I'd say. [/rambling]

Also, Zen, could you answer the question I asked in my analysis of post 535? I suppose it's my fault for not making it clear I wanted it answered, but I do want to hear what you think.

Anyways, I guess I have time to bust out a couple more pages.

[Zenatsu]

353 - TA didn't have shit on Rubi to drop a L-1 vote on him. If it was anything before, sure whatever. I see a L-1 Vote as being as serious as a hammer vote. He had 2 reasons. 2 very terrible reasons.

Its like saying I'm going to vote you because your avatar sucks and Icantthinkofagoodsecondreasonsohereisomethingelseyousaidthatisbaseless.

If I wanted damage control, it'd be better to be more subtle about.. Slightly WIFOM, but it is a lot better than yelling out, "I HATE MY PREDECESSOR!", don't you think?

Also, goddammit, Brin. -_-

Elaborate on this?

Didn't like his entry into the game at all.

You just became a hypocrite

Also, Voided is giving mixed signals. He has dropped some scummy comments, some null reads. But his diligence to read and analyze gives him a lot of town points. Oppose this to Zen who has been prodded in this day, and I cannot help but ask whether Zen is scum who has already seen the game decided and stacked against Void, and therefore is just laying back.

Truth be told: Tera's Closed beta was last weekend, and yesterday I was out on an interview and looking for a job, The played Mass Effect 3 until I passed out. Before the weekend I had checked and there was no activity so I didn't bother to check until today :X

and to further assess my current lurking, I've been sitting and waiting for voided to actually do something, and still hasn't. All he is doing is pretty much reading post by post and just really agreeing with everything. So far he is leaning me as Town and you as scum. Which, is in contrast to what you believe. So far voided is agreeing with you that I am town, and is tagging you more scum as you tag voided scum.

I hope I explained that coherently enough.

It is time for us to lay down the votes, and start putting our current cases together and get this over before deadline next week.

[Voidedmafia]

If you can point out any subtlety in any of that, I'll concede that was hypocritical.

Also, "reading post by post" is doing something, yknow. I'm building up my thoughts into cases for both of you, though it seems that it's going to boil down to a PoE-based vote than anything overtly scummy. My scumdar may just be broken beyond repair this game, or something, but I've been seeing enough town intent from both of you that any scummy things either of you have done have been relatively snuffed out. And I haven't agreed with everything, yknow.

Though, for wanting us to throw down votes, why not do so yourself?

[Voidedmafia]

Just reached the point in the game where people believed pizza would be most informative, and wow, I cannot believe how much grasping Ray is doing around page 24-26. I can really see why, despite pizza flipping town, his lynch was very prominent in getting Ray.

In other news, I hate being a procrastinator. Completely muddied my thoughts past page 23-ish. Actually, I would've voted by now if I wasn't completely caught up (and I am now). Now that I am, I can see a little sense in 826 of my own. Not that I'm going to spoil what that is specifically just yet, but let's see what happens. If I'm right, I think we can still win this. If I'm wrong, then gg.

Fate is in your hands, gentlemen. Now let's see how you pull the strings.

[Voidedmafia]

Also, Zen, yknow that spoilered stuff in 835? If you could, pretty please show me what's inside. Spoiler tags don't work in the text-only version of the cache (which it seems is what Equi took, the fool!)

[ThursdayAngel]

It is time for us to lay down the votes, and start putting our current cases together and get this over before deadline next week.

Yes it is, but unfortunately I'm a bit reluctant to start voting until Voided has caught up with reading up to the latest posts.

[ThursdayAngel]

and to further assess my current lurking, I've been sitting and waiting for voided to actually do something, and still hasn't. All he is doing is pretty much reading post by post and just really agreeing with everything. So far he is leaning me as Town and you as scum. Which, is in contrast to what you believe. So far voided is agreeing with you that I am town, and is tagging you more scum as you tag voided scum.

I hope I explained that coherently enough.

It is time for us to lay down the votes, and start putting our current cases together and get this over before deadline next week.

Come to think of it, if you *were* scum, isn't this the best time for the players to drop down votes? Especially since, in your own words, Voided is leaning with you as Town and me as Scum. I'm sure you said in an earlier post that by now we should probably be voting, but it does look somewhat scummy you know, trying to capitalize on the current readings situation. (And Voided hasn't been just agreeing with everything; he has been questioning some points, blurted out some exclamations, etc. Which can be useful info.)

However, Voided, I do request that you read up more quickly, if possible? I don't think it's fair to start voting when you only know half the story.

[ThursdayAngel]

(okay I immediately pressed send on my post above without finishing typing my thoughts, here's an edit)

I don't think it's fair to start voting when you only know half the story, but the deadline is really close.

[Zenatsu]

and to further assess my current lurking, I've been sitting and waiting for voided to actually do something, and still hasn't. All he is doing is pretty much reading post by post and just really agreeing with everything. So far he is leaning me as Town and you as scum. Which, is in contrast to what you believe. So far voided is agreeing with you that I am town, and is tagging you more scum as you tag voided scum.

I hope I explained that coherently enough.

It is time for us to lay down the votes, and start putting our current cases together and get this over before deadline next week.

Come to think of it, if you *were* scum, isn't this the best time for the players to drop down votes? Especially since, in your own words, Voided is leaning with you as Town and me as Scum. I'm sure you said in an earlier post that by now we should probably be voting, but it does look somewhat scummy you know, trying to capitalize on the current readings situation. (And Voided hasn't been just agreeing with everything; he has been questioning some points, blurted out some exclamations, etc. Which can be useful info.)

However, Voided, I do request that you read up more quickly, if possible? I don't think it's fair to start voting when you only know half the story.

If I *were* scum, best time to vote would have been before the crash, or even then, at the start of the recovered game. The latter would be better for scum because motivation is down and the thoughts of people would be (including me) like "Oh, man this game, pfft whaqtever /vote". If I *were* scum, I would have voted already. Everyone is on the defense right now, brin was on the offense at the start of this day.

But you know, do what you want, flop all you wish, I'm hunting scum.

---

Voided the spoiler tag is askesis' 424 post. For your convience:

Well this thread blew up pretty quickly. Sorry for it being a little bit since I posted.

I still think Ziggler is scum, and this claim situation makes it worse. My earlier point of him either "being scum or being a town that's only hurting town" is now magnified. If he is scum, he will be alive. If he's town, there's a decent chance scum will not kill him because we have severe questions about him. Rubicon (I think) made the point about lynching someone else who we think is scummy and save Ziggler for day 2. As I see it, Ziggler is unlikely to be killed at night.

If Ziggler is doc, he will have a chance to save and prevent a kill. Keep in mind, a no-kill would not prove Ziggler as town because of a possible jailor or because he is scum and decides to no-kill in order to improve his town credibility. If we have a cop, he can investigate Ziggler to find out if he's telling the truth or not. However, this will require the cop (if we have one) to out himself on day 2, and in a best case scenario, will confirm a lynch that we are already about to make. I think a cop's investigate will be better used one someone else. When you take into account that a cop claim is more likely to be a fake claim (because of the 75% of the time when there is no cop), it's a real risky proposition, and might just put ourselves in a stickier situation. I really don't think the benefits of this strategy outweigh the cost.

The downside of lynching Ziggler is that we could be lynching a poorly played doctor. By lynching him, we throw away a 1 in 6 shot of Ziggler making a save, assuming he is doctor and he would not be the target of a night kill. By lynching him, at least we will begin to get a clearer picture over the rest of the game, one way or another. Otherwise, we're in pretty much the same state of confusion Day 2 as we are today.

Another big problem we have is that scum have the information advantage. Not only do they know town by default, they now know that Ziggler and Pizza, if not scum themselves, are doctor and VT, respectively. If we change our lynch to somebody else, that's another role claim we are giving away to them. In a two-PR setup, scum will have a 50% chance to either kill or identify the other PR (7 town players less the three claims is a 2 in 4 shot), if Ziggler and Pizza are telling the truth and if our new lynch is not correct.

In summary, I still think Ziggler is the best lynch. I'm not convinced he's doctor, but if he is, it still has some usefulness. He has only hurt town with his play so far. Lynching somebody else gives another role claim away, may lead to lynching someone who is more productive to town, and will still leave us in the same situation tomorrow in regards to Ziggler.

Your first predecessor called all the town slots early hand. In my 835 post I said they were too good of a call to be that accurate (in a nutshell). Im going to turn that around and call that extremely scummy. He knew who was town, because he was scum.

in reply to you being a hypocrite, it was no subtle claim, that was pretty damn obvious. You said

If I wanted damage control, it'd be better to be more subtle about.. Slightly WIFOM, but it is a lot better than yelling out, "I HATE MY PREDECESSOR!", don't you think?

Which is excatly what you did when you said

Also, goddammit, Brin. -_-

sure, go ahead and argue "But I wasn't yelling". Its subtle, you hated your predecessor's entrance. Sorry, but you contradicted yourself you hypocrite.

Also, reading an ISO, voided agrees with me, then agrees with thursday, then disagrees with me, then disagrees with thursday. I want to say hes using the post posts and trying to slip in on our good side by saying "AWH YEA! that was a cool post bro!" when in true light, everything I've done so far was completely and utter shit.

[ThursdayAngel]

If I *were* scum, best time to vote would have been before the crash, or even then, at the start of the recovered game. The latter would be better for scum because motivation is down and the thoughts of people would be (including me) like "Oh, man this game, pfft whaqtever /vote". If I *were* scum, I would have voted already. Everyone is on the defense right now, brin was on the offense at the start of this day.

But you know, do what you want, flop all you wish, I'm hunting scum.

I don't consider this to be flopping. I'm trying to generate more new data for a well-informed vote.

About that whole best-time-to-vote thing, you've given me something to think about.
> Brin's offensive style at the start of the day can be understood as scummy if we were to accept the premise that scum's best interest is to vote asap. What have you to say to that, Voided?
> However, it is also possible that since this is the most likely and most predictable (logical?) course of action that scum will take, then a better scum player would choose to use the next best time to force a vote. It will be difficult to read, but I will try to see if Zen's playstyle will fit into such a scenario.