Brightest Day Mafia, Part 1 - GAME OVER

[Blackberry]

O I c

[Kast]

@Toast-
Explanation of primary breadcrumb
Links to secondary/supporting breadcrumbs

Spoiler: In depth explanation of each crumb with time context

J

ust checking in, wrote this up during the looooong Night 1, sorry I couldn't join in on Day 1.

A

s Kast posted, I'm his twin brother and will play for him until he is back on the 23rd.

T

rying to get a grasp on all the players/alts; I've never played with hydras before.

A

fter reading through all those posts day 1, I think I have some decent reads on the more prolific posters.

N

ikanor, Muffin, Friend, Hiplop, Subliminal, and Mastin strike me as town.

A

ndrius, CJ, Tans, and Vezok* strike me as possible scum.

D

on't have much of an opinion on the rest, or not enough to warrant sharing.

D

o you guys usually share speculation on night actions and supected motivations, or is that better to keep hidden for now and bring it up when there is a more solid case?

N

ormally I play assuming that a scum team is already just as capable of noticing any observations or conclusions I make from public information, so it's better to share with the other townies that might not have noticed things.

E

ither way, I will probably be posting a more in depth analysis for the players I find more suspicious.

Y

esterday's vote weirdness seems the most pressing point to me; that and CJ's attempted hammer, even if it technically happened after the day was over.

S

ince we now know ooba was town, we can surmise there was neither a scum motivation to try to save ooba by preventing a vote switch, nor motivation for scum to prevent a non-scum CJ from voting a town ooba.

Note the entire post

also

makes complete sense while simultaneously hiding an indisputable message. This is *part* of the reason for the JADE/ANDY/TANS order. The other part is because our actual result was just Andy (your target visited Andy). Tans was our target, but with LLD flipping redirector, there was certainly a possibility of our target actually being someone else (unlikely since I hadn't claimed PR yet). This message was posted before Andy or Tans had claimed any actions.

CJ, Andrius and Vezok

seem the

most likely mafia

(likely others as well).

This is to be contrasted with the prior post statement of scum suspects

Andrius, CJ, Tans, and Vezok* strike me as possible scum.

This clarification crumb follows a more traditional setup and is used to clarify that out of the two people mentioned previously, Tans was a suspect from D1 action but is no longer a suspect after N1. This crumb was posted before Andy stated anything about Tans and before Tans posted at all.

RE: Andy and Tans:
I'm goign to read more into this.

I have susp[icions on both,

and may

have soemthign useful to contribute

...when I get through the additional 4 pages of texts...(did I mention you guys talk way too much for me to keep up)?
...
No, it's actually very sensible.

Tans is more and more making snese to me.

More traditional crumb of a standard investigation role of sorts relevant to Andy and Tans with indication that

result does not straight up clear or condemn

either one, but if anything

positive result on Tans

. At this point in time, Andy had claimed taking an action on Tans and Tans had hinted at sending a mod PM to Andy.

Tans, honestly, I was originally suspicious you were mafia of you after reading through Day 1, but after your interaction with Andy today, I am fairly positive you are not mafia.

Again a crumb that I suspected Tans (hence reason for investigating him), but no longer suspect him. Uncertainty indicates the uncertaintly of whether Tans is townie or 3rd party (he took some action, but it obviously wasn't harmful to Andy). At this point Tans had already hinted that his ability sends a mod-PM to Andy, which is unlikely to be mafia.

EBWOP-
@Hiplop-
Please confirm with mod if your PM flavor is actually game relevant or just flavor. None of the other WLs claimed to KNOW that ALL WLs are good, they just all assumed it from play interactions (except for Nikanor who helped push through the Mr.S lynch).

Also, two things:

i thought he was going ot get CRed

By this did you mean you thought CR was going to kill Toast or recruit Toast?

I WAS the bodyguard,

If you are town BG (which seems plausible),

YOU SHOULD HAVE CLAIMED ON D3!

Your claim would almost certainly have gotten Ludi lynched instead of Mr.S.

@Hiplop's claim-
Sounds plausible; though it would have been good to get confirmation from one of the WLs whether they lose their old power when gaining a new one (not sure if any of them clarified this...or if it matters since most of them were 1x).

To be clear, you are not claiming 3x BG that are now used up, but rather that you lost your BG when you gained your new power?

Also, is your Mid-day cop 1x or multiple use? Is it a Mafia/Cult/Other Cop?

@Cop Target-
Nikanor is probably a better bet, however, we should lynch Vezok first and figure out who is the best target after he flips and depending what he flips (if he flips GF-Vanillizer, then maybe don't target Nikanor...though Vezok as GF-Vanillizer is prolly the least informative on potential partners).

Also, if your investigation can reveal cult, then as long as Vezok flips any type of mafia, it might be best to investigate BB to confirm if he is still town.

[Kast]

[quote=Toasty]Also, Kast, I thought you claimed a Vanillizer? But a town one? Like, claimed it a looong time ago too....[/quote]
No, Nikanor claimed vanillizer. He claimed to have been doubled and targeted Tans and me. However, pretty much everyone except BB dismissed it as a joke claim at the time.

[hiplop]

My bg was for cr and kills.

Andnoit isnt 3 &1, justuntil theyget interacte with by rings

[vezokpiraka]

I'm town guys.

Also the only mafia alive should be Sinestro. And maybe another red.

Do you really think Sinestro is a delayer?

[Blackberry]

Hip claimed day 2 to get his ring because he "misunderstood". Mafia with WL fakeclaim would get the white pm but not a pm about rings obviously... Anyone else think this is fishy?

Vezok why aren't you scumhunting?

[Kast]

@BB-
Not really. Subliminal and Muffin both said that Hiplop's confusion makes sense given the WL PM. Also, no offense to Hiplop, but his play has been riddled with confusions about almost everything.

For that matter, Nikanor also claimed to have received his ring on D2. Though he clarified it was from a different source than Mr.S.

@Toast/Vezok-

Do you really think Sinestro is a delayer?

Andrius flipping scum roleblocker makes vezok a more likely town target.

If Vezok is mafia, then Delayer is probably a fake claim (along with Ice/Freezer). If Vezok is mafia, then he is pretty much guaranteed to be a GF (potentially Unrecruitable-GF).

@Hiplop-
You didn't answer your thoughts on Nik/Vezok (or at least not directly).

Scenarios:
Hiplop review scenarios and if you agree, let's lynch Vezok.

-Vezok flips Mafia GF-Redirector
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates Kast to confirm BB's night cop result

Confirms Kast as town and confirms BB's cop results.

-Vezok flips Mafia GF-Vanillizer
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates BB to check if he was Cult Recruited

With mafia vanillizer dead, this takes care of potential cult problem

-Vezok flips Mafia GF, Non-Vanillizer, Non-Redirector
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates ???

Similar to previous, it's probably best to investigate BB. It's actually prolly better to investigate Nikanor, but it's unlikely there will be clear support for that

-Vezok flips Mafia Non-GF, Non-Vanillizer, Non-Redirector
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates BB to check if he is mafia

The remaining mafia must be the vanillizer so it isn't redirector. That leaves BB as a lying scum false clearing Vezok

-Vezok flips Mafia Non-GF, Redirector
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates ???

It might be best to investigate BB and confirm he isn't Cult AND he wasn't lying to protect Vezok

-Vezok flips Mafia Non-GF, Vanillizer
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates ???

It's unclear at this point. Investigating BB might be good here since it kills 2 birds with one stone (ensures BB wasn't lying to cover Vezok and checks whether he is cult)

-Vezok flips town
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates Nikanor

This is the least likely case, but if so, then Vezok's flip confirms Kast as non-Vanillizer and Nik's Lie Detector confirms Tans as non-Vanillizer. Nik is PoE the only remaining plausible Vanillizer.

[Blackberry]

It should be pretty obvious I'm not MAFIA-aligned because OS used something on me to prove I'm not mafia and thus his conclusion that I am town.

Ludi was double-blocked N3, there is no way that I am recruited. I believe OS specifically stated he was lying to get Toasty lynched.

Wasting an investigation on me is pure idiocy. Toasty is the one that should be investigated IMO.

...

If Toasty is mafia/Vanillaizer, then Kast is the likely Godfather IMO. Kast's plans/suggestions on who does what don't make sense to me, and Kast seems to be defending Toasty directly and indirectly. Does no one else find it really strange, that IF mafia had another vanillia power, that they used it on Toasty instead of me?

Mafia either:
* Were/are expecting me to investigate Godfather
* Are redirecting me

I don't think they would risk leaving me alive otherwise.

[Kast]

@Blackberry-
-If Vezok is GF and Nikanor is Vanillizer, then they obviously wouldn't vanillize you because you obviously were not going to investigate Nikanor.
--For that matter, if Nikanor is Vanillizer, then Toast is the ONLY PERSON he could have vanillized. Otherwise he would have gotten JKed.

-Also, it was pretty obvious that you were going to investigate Kast or Tans last night. If Kast and Tans are both town, then mafia have no reason to touch you. Even more, Muffin's previous plan (his final one was RB Kast), was to watch BB; that would mean any mafia action (e.g. kill, vanillize, anything) could have been found.

-Seriously not getting why you're spazzing out. Right now you aren't looking at what is MOST likely. You aren't looking at what fits ALL the evidence we have.

You keep looking at INDIVIDUAL puzzles pieces, finding a possibility that NOBODY ELSE seems to be pushing, then declaring that it MUST BE because it fits THAT ONE SPECIFIC criteria.

If the puzzle piece fits on 1 side, but the other 3 sides don't fit, then it's the wrong piece.

-Toast isn't mafia. He CCed Nikanor with his JK claim and claimed a JK on OS when OS should have had results. OS confirmed the JK.

You are misremembering or misrepresenting what OS claimed about Toast; he did not claim that Ludi was JKed. He claimed that he RBed Toast; that's how he knew that Ludi wasn't blocked by Toast. It also makes absolutely NO SENSE for the Cult JoAT to NOT RB the guy who ACCORDING TO PLAN was going to JK his CR.

-Your objections to my scenarios also make no sense. There is only ONE scenario in which I discuss Vezok flipping town. In that scenario I did NOT propose Hiplop investigating you. In any scenario in which I propose investigating you, VEZOK IS MAFIA. None of those are compatible with Kast + Toast mafia, unless you are claiming there are currently 3 mafia members (Kast, Vezok, & Toast).

If there IS cult today, then we should lynch one mafia and one cult. At the least we need to lynch one mafia today.

It should be pretty obvious I'm not MAFIA-aligned because OS used something on me to prove I'm not mafia and thus his conclusion that I am town.

Where/when did OS use an ability on you and how/why should we believe OS's claim? You realize OS was cult? You realize cult's objectives are not the same as town's objectives?

You also realize that if you WERE recruited, then you are on OS's team and he would be trying to keep you safe/out of suspicion.

[hiplop]

Hip claimed day 2 to get his ring because he "misunderstood". Mafia with WL fakeclaim would get the white pm but not a pm about rings obviously... Anyone else think this is fishy?

Vezok why aren't you scumhunting?

are you fucking kidding me? Sub posted a claim that he sent the rings, RIGHT at the time when I got a WL PM, that said "you have WL abilities, make sure you can see them".

eh nik/vezok idk what you want from me. by PoE at least one of them is antitown I think

[Blackberry]

It should be pretty obvious I'm not MAFIA-aligned because OS used something on me to prove I'm not mafia and thus his conclusion that I am town.

Where/when did OS use an ability on you and how/why should we believe OS's claim? You realize OS was cult? You realize cult's objectives are not the same as town's objectives?

You also realize that if you WERE recruited, then you are on OS's team and he would be trying to keep you safe/out of suspicion.

A: This statement is conscerning why I am not MAFIA. Not why I am NOT-CULT.

B: OS/Cult were very pissed at mafia for killing two of their numbers. I.e., Ludi had absolutely no reason to lie when he posted about his suspects of who mafia are and who was cleared as non-mafia.

C: Ludi posted saying they knew I wasn't mafia VIA OS (in other words, OS used something on me).

D: This may seem absolutely a dumb reason for me to be not-mafia, but don't you think any fake-claiming mafia would have pretended to be blocked? That way A: I throw suspscion on the roleblockers and B: I don't have to clear/accuse anyone. But this really isn't that important.

[Blackberry]

I didn't know there was a 'Make sure you can see them' PM >_<.

[Kast]

@BB-

A: This statement is conscerning why I am not MAFIA. Not why I am NOT-CULT.

Nobody is calling you mafia; so your arguments are straw men.
Aside from that, it's pretty clear that mafia can be recruited, so the point about OS or Ludi defending one of their recruits holds regardless of whether you are town or mafia.

Ludi had absolutely no reason to lie when he posted about his suspects of who mafia are and who was cleared as non-mafia.

This statement is circular. If you are a recruit, then Ludi has a clear and obvious reason for lying about you. If we assume you are town, then Ludi would have no reason to tell the truth OR lie about his suspects. Also, given that it was town pushing to lynch Ludi with confirmed scum leading the counter-lynch that kept him alive until D4, it's not very realistic to claim he has any incentive to help town and hurt mafia.

-If we pretend Ludi had some incentive to help town against mafia, when did OS actually have a chance to use an ability and verify your affiliation?
a) N1 he was Delayed by Vezok
b) N2 he was JKed by TT
c) N3 he RBed TT

a) If you're assuming Vezok is lying mafia GF, then let's lynch Vezok now.
b) If you're claiming TT lied about JKing OS on N2, then how do you explain TT's JK CC on Nikanor N1?
c) If you're claiming OS did not RB TT on N3, and instead used a night action to investigate you, how does that make sense with Ludi's claim to have recruited you on N3 because you were town? Investigations resolve AFTER recruiting (also, why would they investigate the person they are recruiting?).

To be clear, you're probably not cult and you're extremely unlikely to be mafia. But it's not for the silly BS reasons you are claiming now. You're probable town mafia cop just because this game needs that role for balance. For that reason alone you are unlikely to be mafia.

TT was almost certainly RBed on N3. But Andy's claimed RB on Ludi, combined with mafia not killing BB on N4 both indicate that mafia prolly did block Ludi. If they did NOT block Ludi, then they would need to kill his recruit or risk getting recruited/out-voted.

-You've gone from wanting to lynch Vezok, to Killjoy, to Hiplop, to Toasty (all the while listing me as a potential buddy to half of the others). You're calling everyone (except Tans) scum. Changing your thoughts based on what's going on is fine and good. Changing your thoughts because you got bored isn't helpful.

-If you're opposed to any of my proposals for Hiplop, be specific on which one and why. If you have a better idea/alternative, then share it.

@Hiplop-
Not sure if that last part was addressed to me, but assuming it is, I'd like you to vote Vezok and depending how he flips, investigate the appropriate person.

@Toast-
Given Nik's claim, Tans cannot be mafia unless he is GF or unless Nik is lying.

Thoughts on my proposal for Hiplop's Day Cop power?

[tanstalas]

Hey.

I have been extremely lazy and skimming shit hardcore, especially wall posts. Was Nik's use a 1 time thing?

[Blackberry]

Nobody is calling you mafia; so your arguments are straw men.

I listed my arguments as to why

I can not mafia

and you attacked

those

arguments as to why I could be cult

when they are about me being mafia or not

...

Are you a f#cking idiot?

[ToastyToast]

@Hiplop: your ability would work on cults?

@Kast: Your plan for the day cop is a bunch of ???? based on whatever vezok flips (whom hasn't been determined to be today's lynch, mind you) + a single result in which Nikanor is checked.

I DO think Hiplop should use his day cop after the first lynch, but it should be his choice. BB, Nikanor, Me...they would all make sense.
Checking killjoy would give us two conf town or at least one (perhaps two) scum.

[Kast]

@Tans-
He claimed 1-shot Lie Detector and Permanent (no conditions) Bulletproof (different from Nikanor's claim)

Nobody is calling you mafia; so your arguments are straw men.

I listed my arguments as to why

I can not mafia

and you attacked

those

arguments as to why I could be cult

when they are about me being mafia or not

...

Are you a f#cking idiot?

I listed my arguments as to why

you should be investigated as CULT

and you attacked

those

arguments by

claiming you cannot be MAFIA....

Are you a f#cking idiot?

[Blackberry]

Nobody is calling you mafia; so your arguments are straw men.

I listed my arguments as to why

I can not mafia

and you attacked

those

arguments as to why I could be cult

when they are about me being mafia or not

...

Are you a f#cking idiot?

I listed my arguments as to why

you should be investigated as CULT

and you attacked

those

arguments by

claiming you cannot be MAFIA....

Are you a f#cking idiot?

Incorrect, I listed why you are an idiot.

...

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p3476117]Ludi was double-blocked N3, there is no way that I am recruited. I believe OS specifically stated he was lying to get Toasty lynched.

This is my reason why I can't be Culted. You ignored this.

It should be pretty obvious I'm not MAFIA-aligned because OS used something on me to prove I'm not mafia and thus his conclusion that I am town.

Where/when did OS use an ability on you and how/why should we believe OS's claim? You realize OS was cult? You realize cult's objectives are not the same as town's objectives?

You also realize that if you WERE recruited, then you are on OS's team and he would be trying to keep you safe/out of suspicion.

The above was my reason why I can't be Mafia, yet, you choose to attack these reasons.

You are the one here that took my NON-MAFIA reasons and attacked them for CULT REASONS. I.e., you = idiot.

[Kast]

@BB-
Your "reason" you can't be mafia is a load of crap-logic BS anyway. If you were culted by Ludi, then OS's defense of you is MEANINGLESS regarding your affiliation as town or mafia.

As an analogy, if a Serial Killer were lynched and he posted twilight crap that he was actually a cop and investigated Player A as innocent. Once he flips SK you can't trust that Player A is actually innocent. If the SK flipped as 3rd Party who wins if Player A survives to end-game, then ABSOLUTELY the 3rd Party should not be trusted since he has motive for keeping Player A alive. It doesn't matter what affiliation Player A is.

@TT-
If you have a better first lynch choice than Vezok, please share. This game is stalling out.

Obviously Hiplop gets to decide who he investigates. However, town should absolutely give input on what's the optimal investigation target.

[Kast]

Incorrect, I listed why you are an idiot.

Incorrect, you listed a "reason" why you are not mafia. You listed a "reason" why you are not cult. You posted therefore that you should not be investigated.

This was posted as a direct response to my proposal for Hiplop's investigation.

You added to this that investigating you would be bad because Kast and Toast would be mafia together (requiring Kast & Toast & Vezok to all be mafia).

This is my reason why I can't be Culted. You ignored this.

This is false. I addressed it here:

You are misremembering or misrepresenting what OS claimed about Toast; he did not claim that Ludi was JKed. He claimed that he RBed Toast; that's how he knew that Ludi wasn't blocked by Toast. It also makes absolutely NO SENSE for the Cult JoAT to NOT RB the guy who ACCORDING TO PLAN was going to JK his CR.

So no, Ludi was NOT double blocked. He was

probably

single blocked and

potentially

not blocked at all.

The above was my reason why I can't be Mafia, yet, you choose to attack these reasons.

That's NOT a cult reason. Your degradation of posting to personal insults instead of actually addressing my points is uncalled for and is itself more crap-logic.

Your claim that you cannot be mafia is based on an assumption that is false. You require the testimony of a player who is NOT town and who might have RECRUITED you. This has 3 problems:

-IF YOU WERE RECRUITED THEN HIS TESTIMONY WAS OBVIOUSLY PROTECTING HIS RECRUIT.

This is not a "cult reason", this is a refutation of your crap-logic straw man defense.
-If you are town, OS is STILL NON-TOWN and STILL has NO REASON for telling town the truth.
-OS NEVER CLAIMED what you say he claimed.

[Blackberry]

Ludi was a cult. He was pissed off at mafia for killing two of his men. He seemed very sincere when he posted who was cleared. On top of that, I already know he is telling the truth so I know furthermore that his intention is to help the town when he posted his bit.

...

Let's See:

Tans is lazy
Kast is pissing me off
Vezok isn't scumhunting
Killjoy's replacement seems a bit off (I'm guessing he's new)
Toasty hasn't done anything and is literally the only non-WL who hasn't been investigated
Hiplop seems more concerned with online shopping and proving himself town than actually scumhunting

...

I hate you all

[Kast]

@BB-
Also, you're distracting from the issue at hand. Let's lynch mafia.

@TT-

+ a single result in which Nikanor is checked.

If this was meant to imply suspicion of Nikanor (ie. Nik should be investigated in more cases), then that's probably fine. The deciding factor in most of the Vezok-Mafia-Flip cases is that

IF

there are any cult today,

THEN

it is better to lynch 1 Mafia and 1 Cult rather than 2 Mafia.

If BB was recruited on N3, then N4 he recruited someone (potentially even mafia). That puts us at 3T/2M/2C (potentially 4T/1M/2C).
-If lynch mafia but don't lynch any cult today, then we lose after cult recruits tonight 2T/3C (potential kill OR recruit would make us lose 1T/3C).
-If we lynch one mafia and one cult, then we're in the best shape:
3T/2M/2C -lynch 1M/1C> 3T/1M/1C -Mafia must try to kill cult or he gets lynched tomorrow/Cult recruits someone> 3T/1M (or 2T/1M/1C or 3T/0M/1C depending who got recruited and whether killing CR cancels recruiting) -lynch 1M and 1C> Town Win

[Kast]

Posted that before finishing:
@TT (cont'd)-
If there was NO recruit on N3, then lynching 1 Mafia and investigating to find Cult ALSO helps with a clear on BB (especially if Vezok flips non-GF). It doesn't prevent us from lynching another mafia, but

EVEN IF

we fail to lynch the second mafia, we have another 2 chances on the following day. And if Vezok flips GF/Redirector, then we get 2 more investigations that we can trust if we mislynch.

@BB-

Ludi was a cult. He was pissed off at mafia for killing two of his men. He seemed very sincere when he posted who was cleared.

That is

PLAUSIBLE

. I've stated several times that I think you are probably NOT recruited.

PLAUSIBLE

is not the same as

PROOF

. If you are town, then you need to do a better job thinking about things from the PoV of a

TOWNIE WHO IS NOT YOU

.

On top of that, I already know he is telling the truth so I know furthermore that his intention is to help the town when he posted his bit.

Great for you. That's not the least bit convincing for anyone

WHO IS NOT YOU

[hiplop]

@Hiplop: your ability would work on cults?

@Kast: Your plan for the day cop is a bunch of ???? based on whatever vezok flips (whom hasn't been determined to be today's lynch, mind you) + a single result in which Nikanor is checked.

I DO think Hiplop should use his day cop after the first lynch, but it should be his choice. BB, Nikanor, Me...they would all make sense.
Checking killjoy would give us two conf town or at least one (perhaps two) scum.

yeah, both my abilities were for cult and mafia

[Killjoy]

Ok. I am using a friend's computer, but I don't like Kast trying to guide everything. It is just like Andrius's play who flipped mafia.

Also, I am not by PoE the Vanillalizer as I was fucking blocked last night and there was a vanillification. Investigating you, if Vezok doesn't flip gf makes you the probable gf because of your lieing, trying to drown out balckerey and mine's posts with your massive amounts if SPeCULATIVE theory, and you are most likely the one lieing about being vanillafied.

Hiplop,

How could you get confused about receiving a ring when it just said make sure you can see your ability? We received a brand new picture and everything. You also claim daycop? And bodyguard? With two cops and 4 roleblockers?

And you are using flavor in the flip to say you are confirmed town? What is your opinion if cult is alive or not alive?

What will your daycop results say? Like a mafia cop or a cult cop or gunsmith or ?