TV Mafia Game Over - Scum Win

izakthegoomba · Post Post #3275 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 am

But those options are given from TownMeran's PoV. FMPoV, it's quite possible that you are scum.

And besides, suppose we lynch Pere today, and tomorrow is MyLo. We No Lynch, of course, to raise our lynching accuracy. So your death doesn't have to come tomorrow, so we can make a much more informed decision of whether to lynch you or not.

PEdit: yeah, what Xanatos said, too. Peregrine is probably MafVig anyway, nullifying your argument.

Meransiel · Post Post #3276 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:00 am

In post 3274, David Xanatos wrote:Okay. Show me an SK with X-Shots.

See? This is stupid setup speculation. I don't ask myself whether a Mafia Vig or an x-shot SK is more probable. I simply have this simple, proven fact in front of me: shotty said Pere is SK, and shotty is scum. Therefore, Pere is NOT scum.

@izak: rhetorical question. If you DO no lynch tomorrow, will you still lynch me the day after tomorrow? Regardless of the "reduced pool of suspects"? Of course! So that's why your idea is pointless.

David Xanatos · Post Post #3277 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:02 am

Are you serious?

Shotty would want to out an SK instantly, because they tend to be BP.

However, by claiming someone's an SK, and if those kills stopped, he then looks like he was trying to cause a mislynch, giving that person some Town-Cred.

Therefore, a Mafia Vig would be covered because of the kills stopping, and the supposition that Shotty was lying.

TheJakalope · Post Post #3278 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:05 am

Alright, I'd be willing to Hammer pere, but not for a while, we've still got a lot of day left in us.

Meransiel · Post Post #3279 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:17 am

In post 3277, David Xanatos wrote:Are you serious?

Shotty would want to out an SK instantly, because they tend to be BP.

However, by claiming someone's an SK, and if those kills stopped, he then looks like he was trying to cause a mislynch, giving that person some Town-Cred.

Therefore, a Mafia Vig would be covered because of the kills stopping, and the supposition that Shotty was lying.

That's too much of a risk to take. If people DID say "yeah, let's lynch the SK" and actually lynched Pere, and he flipped scum, they would say "hey, Shotty lied to us, lynch all liars!"

So what YOU are proposing is a scum plan that has, as best result, 1 scum getting killed and 1 scum getting towncred, and as worst result, 2 scum getting killed and nothing gained, while what I am proposing is a scum plan that has, as best result, getting rid of an opposed SK, and as worst result, 1 scum getting killed AND 1 SK getting killed.

Plus, and this is probably much more important, shotty is too selfish to agree to the plan you described.

Jakalope, please don't hammer.

David Xanatos · Post Post #3280 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:20 am

Jaka > All we're doing here is going around in circles.. more time isn't likely to solve that.

Mera > Shotty was already dead. It's not unreasonable to assume that his last actions would be an attempt at sowing discord and protecting a buddy in doing so.

Meransiel · Post Post #3281 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:25 am

People, I'm CERTAIN a Pere lynch is game over for us. I'd do anything to prevent it.

And yes, that includes voting myself.

David Xanatos · Post Post #3282 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:29 am

Wait.

You say he's the SK.

And then say that lynching him means we lose.

After asserting that it isn't MyLo because there are "two anti-town factions".

Make your goddamn mind up which bullshit story you're attempting to feed us before trying it.. -_-

Meransiel · Post Post #3283 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:33 am

Learn to read you idiot. Or, rather, be a bitch and read this simple chronology, which I've already posted but you were too high to spot:

Day 9 - Pere dies. SK. 2 scum left, 5 town left.

Night 9 - random town (probably Banshee) dies. 2 scum left, 4 town left.

Day 10 - I die. Game over, since it is 2 scum 3 town and 1 more town dies at night.

izakthegoomba · Post Post #3284 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:37 am

But Meran, if you are town, then surely an SK/scum lynch is better than lynching you...

Surely you can't think Peregrine is town?

PEdit:

That's where you're wrong, Meran. On D10, we No Lynch, so we have the maximum possible information.

Then we're at a three-man endgame. The remaining players work out who is scum. Seriously, nobody is going to jump straight in and lynch you at LyLo.

Meransiel · Post Post #3285 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:40 am

In post 3284, izakthegoomba wrote:Seriously, nobody is going to jump straight in and lynch you at LyLo.

I do not believe in the validity of this sentence.

David Xanatos · Post Post #3286 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:52 am

And if Peregrine's an SK...

Town lynch Town, 2/1/4 remaining.

SK has a shot held back. Hits Town. 2/1/3

Mafia shoots Town. 2/1/2

Town Lose basically by default at that point.

Meransiel · Post Post #3287 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:58 am

Since this is a large, pere's most likely BP. Therefore if he DOES have a shot held back, which I DON'T think he has, he can afford to wait until he is sure he will hit scum with it.

Because in this situation, for a SK, optimal play is to get rid of the mafia.

Meransiel · Post Post #3288 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:59 am

No, actually, it's not optimal. It's obligatory. If pere is SK and shoots town, he instantly loses. And he knows it.

izakthegoomba · Post Post #3289 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:16 am

Oh come on Meran, do you think anyone here will be fool enough to quicklynch someone at LyLo? That's the kind of thing you see in newbie games.

Banshee · Post Post #3290 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:17 am

I'm still in the middle of doing an annoying long reread and looking for connections and trying to rethink this game from the beginning, but I have been keeping up with recent posts and I want to point out a couple of things.

1. Shotty's play was far from optimal. It was erratic and I think it's a mistake to believe anything material could be derived from it. I tend to think Peregrine is a scum vig because I can find no precedent for an X-shot SK. I think that Shotty probably tried to bus badly. I could be wrong about this, though, so I want to err on the side of caution.

2. Meransiel's play day one does not come from scum. It makes no sense, especially since I pushed him on it at the time and he didn't react in a scummy way. I do NOT want to vote Meransiel today. I think he's wrong on Peregrine and I think he's wrong on David (though I'm not done with my reread) but I do NOT think he's scum.

3. I'm unhappy on an initial read with both Peregrine and TheJakalope. Both have been minimal contributors; while Peregrine did rock the boat at times, Chevre never did and TheJakalope seems to be going along with that trend.

IF Meransiel is correct and there are two scum left plus Peregrine-SK, I would prefer to lynch TheJakalope over Meransiel as I believe there's a significantly higher chance that TheJakalope AKA Chevre is scum as opposed to Meransiel. I'm not lynching Izak, David or Meransiel today regardless.

izakthegoomba · Post Post #3291 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:34 am

Ok... It's time for me to re-read as well. I did one a few game-days ago, but it was quick and dirty at best.

So if my activity drops over the next few days, I'm not lurking, I'm reading.

Meransiel · Post Post #3292 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:48 am

@Banshee: All I am saying is that Pere is 100% not mafia. I would be surprised if he was town, but not shocked. And we SHOULD concentrate on mafia and only on mafia.

A Jakalope lynch sounds like a wildcard that can go both ways, so I'm not really sure what to think.

Banshee · Post Post #3293 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:04 am

In post 3292, Meransiel wrote:@Banshee: All I am saying is that Pere is 100% not mafia. I would be surprised if he was town, but not shocked. And we SHOULD concentrate on mafia and only on mafia.

A Jakalope lynch sounds like a wildcard that can go both ways, so I'm not really sure what to think.

I disagree with you. Based on Shotty's play (and I don't think you've really looked at HOW bad it was with the recent cardflips) Peregrine could very easily be a Scum X-shot vig. At the point at which Shotty began throwing this suspicion, there was heavy suspicion on Shotty himself. He could have been trying to gain town cred by bussing one of his own, or he could have been trying to muddy the waters considering that he was likely to go down that day or the next.

Peregrine remains my top lynch wish because I DO think he's an X-shot scum vig. I don't see ANY evidence that there is even an X-shot SK role or ever has been, and I think it would be horrifically imbalanced UNLESS Peregrine can win with town or scum by surviving. I can see the role working from a balance perspective in that case, but I still have NEVER seen one. Scum vigs are apparently quite common, though.

Given the general level of Shotty's play, he may have thought that Peregrine had been outed by one of the town powerroles and might have been trying to exonerate Peregrine by saying, "See, he's just an SK! Don't worry! No need to lynch!"

That's given the assumption that Shotty was thinking anything at all. I don't see much evidence of thinking in his overall play, tbh.

Stating flatly that Peregrine is not scum is not justified. You may be right, but it's by no means 100% as you're trying to portray it. That doesn't make him 100% scum either. It just means you're making an assumption based on facts not in evidence.

Meransiel · Post Post #3294 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:07 am

In post 3293, Banshee wrote:He could have been trying to gain town cred by bussing one of his own,

Impossible. If he wanted that he would've said Pere is Mafia Vig directly.

Banshee · Post Post #3295 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:30 am

My impression of Shotty's play is apparently diametrically opposite to yours.

This is, after all, the player who called Silver a Jailkeeper, then called him scum. He couldn't keep the role he had straight or who he'd investigated or the number of investigations he'd had so far. It's not a stretch imo to say he could have invented a role for Peregrine and thought it would keep him safer for longer in the game.

And I am not pushing a TheJakalope lynch except in preference to the three people I listed in my last post. I still prefer the Peregrine lynch. I just think he's more likely to be scum than you are based on previous play. I'm watching his contribution level now along with Peregrine's. I don't really believe in lurker lynches but at a certain point in the game lurking becomes both obvious and scummy, so I'm watching it.

Nero Cain · Post Post #3296 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:45 am

In post 3260, Meransiel wrote:
Scum would never back off a hammer after they decided to hammer.

Why, 'cause it brings aton of unwanted attention? True but scum want to look town. Scum could easily do something "townish" for town cred.

edit:Izak already mentioned this.

In post 3261, David Xanatos wrote:
In post 3237, Meransiel wrote:By the way. This is not mylo, because we have 2 anti-town factions.

This is where the Cult paranoia comment came from.

There hasn't been 2 shots every night, so 2 mafia/werewolf factions are out. That leaves a Cult, as it's the only other possible anti-town Faction.

I see nothing about a cult. Not sure if a mafia HAS to kill each night so I wouldn't rule them out.

How do you go from "Meran scum sliped"/"O NOES, she's bringing the cult parinioa back" to "Yeah there

IS

a cult"?

In post 3262, David Xanatos wrote:Oh, and note how the person who's saying there are two Scum groups (despite no evidence of it)

I disagree that there's no evidence. The only evidence is that there are 2 unclaimed kills. An weren't you the oe that was yelling about Pere being an SK earlier?

In post 3278, TheJakalope wrote:Alright, I'd be willing to Hammer pere, but not for a while, we've still got a lot of day left in us.

RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!

This guy ignored

EVERYTHING

directed at him.

+ if you think Pere is scum why are you fence sitting?

Meransiel · Post Post #3297 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:58 am

Hey rager, you think Jackalope is scum?

Nero Cain · Post Post #3298 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 5:02 am

hrmmmmm....probably.

His fence sitting on Pere makes me think he's a mislynch or what if him and Pere are scum buddies together? What do ya'll think?

izakthegoomba · Post Post #3299 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 6:04 am

Well I want more content from TheJakalope. We can't play an endgame with one of the players lurking through it.

@TheJakalope this had better be the last time I have to ask: give us a full list of reads. It is absolutely essential at this stage.

In fact, it would be really good at this stage for EVERYONE to give a full list of reads.