TV Mafia Game Over - Scum Win

[TheJakalope]

• If you had to lynch someone right now, who would it be, and why? -

If I was forced to make a lynch right now, I would pick Pere, just because he's 95% confanti Town, but I'd much rather lynch scum.
• Do you think PeregrineV is a Serial Killer? If not, what do you read him as? - Yes, scum.
• You've been very neutral throughout this game, which I find quite troubling. Can you provide a list of your reads on all players? - Hmm.. Not a tons of great reads, but one thing I will say is that David X is looking quite scummy. Not going to vote until I'm very sure of my reads though.

[TheJakalope]

EBWOP: I meant to say "Yes, Serial Killer" for the 2nd question.

[izakthegoomba]

I'm happy with the first two answers, but the third one? Really? This is the late game now. You should have reads, one way or the other, on almost all players by now, and you should be willing to give them to us. More than that, even. You should be trying to ACTUALLY LYNCH THE SCUM, instead of sitting around doing nothing while the rest of us plough on.

[David Xanatos]

I'm wondering where the hell the X-Shot SK idea came from. That's a Vig. A Serial Killer is a Compulsive Vig with his own wincon.. making it X-Shot stops it being Serial...

With that in mind, how the hell can Meransiel be A: Sure that Shotty was being truthful about Pere and B: That the SK has no shots remaining.

If you believe Mera is Scum, this opens two possibilities..

1: Both Mera and Peregrine are Scum, Shotty called Pere an SK as a gambit, knowing he wouldn't be believed and therefore making Pere look good, Meransiel would be continuing this by jumping on the advantageous X-Shot theory..

2: Meran's putting himself in a friendly position with the SK to avoid Pere's kill(s) if he has any remaining. I recall Mera saying he didn't want a Doc to visit him earlier in the game, which at the time made me think either PGO or Bulletproof.. if he happens to be Scum BP, that could mean Pere's been using him to soak up the kills at Night to stay under the radar.. note than Meransiel actually said that Kills were okay to send at him, as were investigations.. if this is the case, I think he was gambling on either the Cop not targetting him, or claiming Miller BP..

In addition, if Meran thinks Peregrine is X-Shot, why is he against lynching him?

If he's X-Shot non-compulsive, I think it'd be likely he'd hold back a shot for endgame, to avoid a 1-1 loss situation if it's him and one Scum left, and salvage a dual win or draw, depending on how Jason decided.

Anyway. First day back at Uni tomorrow.. going to bed for now.

[Nero Cain]

Show me his posts where your name can't be substituted for mine.

?????????????????

I can hardly see Izak as actually, properly scumhunting.

So you think Pere is scumhunting?

So you're thinking Meran is thinking a third vengeful and backed off?

This is directed at you too Banshee, I'm just quoting Pere here.

This wouldn't matter 'cause as we saw CB venge killed VIdash who was off the wagon. Its possible that scumMeran knew that Silver would be a mislynch and backed off to save face. What do you think Pere?

I was pretty confident Peregrine was scum but this day has made me not so sure.

What made you change your mind?

Not Voting

PeregrineV
Banshee

Nero Cain

TheJakalope

Pretty sure I was voting Pere earlier.

vote:Pere

lets see if it works this time.

By the way. This is not mylo, because we have 2 anti-town factions.

Slip from Mera? I can't see Town making such a direct statement with such apparent certainty.. I can see Scum all over it though.

1: Throws Town off due to trying to reignite the Cult paranoia, which in my mind is now solidly negated.
2: Is basically saying to Town "Oh don't worry you can mislynch again and be fine"...

I'd say this was a softclaim if we all hadn't claimed VT. As it stands, I see no reasonable explanation for that from a Townie..

Meran doesn't give me warm fuzzies but this is stretching it. Cults usually don't have a kill although there is a special kind of killing culr listed on the wiki. regardless, cult, SK, mini-mafia faction...with two other kills I think its a safe assumption that there's something floating out there besides just the mafia.

@Nero Cain:

• If you had to lynch someone right now, who would it be, and why?
• Do you think PeregrineV is a Serial Killer? If not, what do you read him as?
• If Meransiel was lynched today and flipped Mafia, would your opinion of Vezokpiraka change at all?

1. Pere, I really feel he's been trying to stall the game and make it slow. Sure I understand discussion being good for the town but I think it can also work against us. I would also accept Meran.
2.Another idea is that he is a goon and mafiapwarole was throwing him under the bus but then again we have no clue were those other two shots came from.
3. No? You'll have to explain that to me. Are Meran and Vezok linked or something?

Don't be obtuse. Of COURSE Peregrine is the SK. It was in shotty's best interest to disclose him.

But he doesn't have a kill

, so lynching him is a waste of time. Actually, he should be the ONLY one we can't lynch today.

How do you know this?

If I was forced to make a lynch right now, I would pick Pere, just because he's 95% confanti Town, but I'd much rather lynch scum.

This is a typo right?

Please explain how he's 95% confirmed town?

[Nero Cain]

I'm going to bed but in the morning I'll have words for David.

[izakthegoomba]

@Nero it was just a thing earlier today(?), it looked like a link between Meran and Vezok.

I think Jaka meant Peregrine was 95% confirmed scum (even though he's not, you can't assign a percentage to this).

Also, I know Xanatos' logic is rather shaky Today, but I really don't see anything he's done as scummy.

[Nero Cain]

I was pretty confident Peregrine was scum but this day has made me not so sure.

• Do you think PeregrineV is a Serial Killer? If not, what do you read him as? -

Yes, scum.

these statemenrs do not match!!!

[David Xanatos]

Can someone define what's wrong with my logic?

I don't see it, but that may be just my view. If someone can explain (preferably Izak if possible) then I'll take on board what they say and argue the point if needed.

[izakthegoomba]

Slip from Mera? I can't see Town making such a direct statement with such apparent certainty.. I can see Scum all over it though.

1: Throws Town off due to trying to reignite the Cult paranoia, which in my mind is now solidly negated.
2: Is basically saying to Town "Oh don't worry you can mislynch again and be fine"...

It's this that irked me. I just don't think either of those points are valid.

First, I have no idea how Meran's post had anything to do with cults. Anyway, think about it: We've had how many nights now? 8? 9? That means, since we have obviously not lynched any cultists, that even allowing for a few recruitmets failing for some reason, the cult would still easily be a majority now. They would just be controlling the whole town and wiping out everyone else! So why would Meran even think about trying to "reignite the Cult paranoia", when it's pretty much 100% certain that we don't have a cult here?

Secondly, I fail to see how you managed to read it like that. I'm pretty certain he was just making a point...

Don't get me wrong, I still read you as town and Meran as scum, but I think you are tunnelling WAY too hard on Meran right now. Take a look around, Xanatos.

[Meransiel]

Guys, guys, come the hell on. You don't have the most TANGENT understanding of MOTIVE.

Scum would never back off a hammer after they decided to hammer. Especially since the victim is not believed by anybody.
Serial Killers would never expend shots cautiously.
Scum WOULD stick themselves to a single event descriptive of someone's faux scum alignment and drill him to the ground.

I mean, think about it for a second. If David flips town, I'm like almost confirmed scum. But if I flip town, he's right back where he was.

Mafia doesn't play to "save face" unless they are being suspected by a sizable minority. Because it puts them at needless risk. That said,

@Jakalope: Why do you think DX is scum?

[David Xanatos]

By the way. This is not mylo, because we have 2 anti-town factions.

This is where the Cult paranoia comment came from.
There hasn't been 2 shots every night, so 2 mafia/werewolf factions are out. That leaves a Cult, as it's the only other possible anti-town Faction.

[David Xanatos]

Oh, and note how the person who's saying there are two Scum groups (despite no evidence of it), and therefore it not being MyLo(Which if there aren't two Scum groups, it is most likely) is the person advocating lynching me, because when I flip Town, he's guarenteed scum. And if he's lying about there being two scum groups (Which I'd put money on), then he wins by mislynching me.

[izakthegoomba]

Well, I think Meran was just talking about the presence of an SK. So whatever. Here's a thought though: what about a mafia vig?

Scum would never back off a hammer after they decided to hammer. Especially since the victim is not believed by anybody.

WIFOM

I mean, think about it for a second. If David flips town, I'm like almost confirmed scum.

What are you suggesting? You and Xanatos go 1v1? I'll go for it if we can lynch you first.

[Meransiel]

Oh, and note how the person who's saying there are two Scum groups (despite no evidence of it), and therefore it not being MyLo(Which if there aren't two Scum groups, it is most likely) is the person advocating lynching me, because when I flip Town, he's guarenteed scum. And if he's lying about there being two scum groups (Which I'd put money on), then he wins by mislynching me.

1. Stop smoking mushrooms. You are setup speculating, I am not, I am merely presenting the situation as it is.
2. The religious kills cannot be from a vig, since a vig would be town and wouldn't lie saying he is a VT. Since no vig died so far, the existence of a SK is obvious.
3. I still don't understand why you are talking about cults.

[Meransiel]

I mean, think about it for a second. If David flips town, I'm like almost confirmed scum.

What are you suggesting? You and Xanatos go 1v1? I'll go for it if we can lynch you first.

It doesn't go both ways. If I flip town, that doesn't make Xanatos scum. So no.

[David Xanatos]

Mafia Vig makes much more sense to me than an X-Shot SK. I have

never

come across an X-Shot SK. It would defy the point. I'm not sure where that leaves us with regard to Peregrine though.. would Shotty throw an SK accusation on his Vig buddy?

And you, very specifically, said, "It is not MyLo because there are two anti-Town factions."

The only other anti-Town Faction would be either Werewolves (No Werewolf theme kill, no Seers, nothing to suggest them.), a second Mafia Family (No second kills apart from those two), or a Cult of some variety (At this point, with no Cultist kills, we'd have lost if this was the case).

In other words, it's

you

who is wildly speculating on setup with "There are two anti-Town factions", and trying to lead us into another mislynch.

[izakthegoomba]

Well then Xanatos, do you believe Peregrine is a Mafia Vig and shotty was trying to gain town cred (if he outlived Pere), or elsemade Pere look better (if he didn't)? If you do, then surely you should be pushing a Peregrine lynch?

[David Xanatos]

I can see it, personally, but the Meransiel stuff has me convinced Meransiel is Scum..

Peregrine is 90% likely to be Scum in my eyes. As buddies I'd have to say Mera and possibly Vezok. I'm not sure about Vezok, but the sheeped vote just rubbed me the wrong way.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Peregrine

[David Xanatos]

UNVOTE:

Just realised Jason got the last VC wrong. Nero's voting for him.. don't want to put him at L-2 until I check a few things.

Jason: Yea, Sorry. Missed the vote.

[izakthegoomba]

Oh come on, L-2 is nothing to worry about.

We're not going to get anywhere without another flip. So let's lynch Peregrine right now. I doubt anyone can reasonably protest that he's not the most likely to be scum (of one sort or another) that we have here. Then we can use his flip to help determine who else is scum.

It's the only thing that makes sense.

[David Xanatos]

Meh.. I suppose I am being a little over-paranoid about a quicklynch.

VOTE: Peregrine

I need to do a bit of Uni work now, if the Lynch happens before I get on again, and I'm NKed, Meransiel is my #1 for tomorrow.

[izakthegoomba]

Lol so do I... but yeah I'd want Meran dead anyway unless something BIG happens tonight.

[Meransiel]

David Xanatos will not die tonight. Furthermore, since there WILL be 2 mafia tomorrow, tomorrow WILL be mylo. So my death IS the end of the game.
And since I can't count on you not lynching me tomorrow, the only way I can conceivably break this is by Pere not dying today.

So you guys have a couple options in front of you, which are:

1. Lynch David X.
2. Lynch me, and promise that if I flip town you will lynch David X tomorrow.
3. Lynch Pere and lose the game.
4. Lynch someone that is not one of us. This has weird consequences and thus I can neither say it is a good nor bad idea.
5. No lynch and lose the game.

So what will it be?
And DX, for your information, SK IS an anti-town faction. Just cause it's called a faction doesn't mean it must have more than 1 member.

[David Xanatos]

Okay. Show me an SK with X-Shots.

I've never seen one and there's nil about it on the wiki. So provide precedent and I

may

entertain the notion.