Open 329: Mayo Clinic D3: Town WINS!

[Maruchan]

Which was my point as to why the Doctor will protect who he is assigned to protect and tell the mafia goons they are SOL.

Like I said.

[whispersilk]

LOL at you scum all letting each other know what the deal is and who won't be sacrificed.

[Thomith]

oh so there is no way for us to find ways scum can overpower the plan before they get a chance to so we can change it if this is the case?

[whispersilk]

There is no way for scum to over power the plan because it's the plan of win.

Also, that point was addressed in the plan.

[Thomith]

There is no way for scum to over power the plan because it's the plan of win.

No plan is flawless, although some are more flawed than others.

[whispersilk]

Plan to follow if neil IS NOT the SK:

*

Fundamentals of the plan:

• Each vig has a very specific job aimed at finding the SK as soon as possible. If some scum get shot along the road, then bonus. Town are likely to die, but the plan is here to minimise the pool of townfolk that the SK and scum can pick off, and those out in the open and unprotected will be the scummiest. Hopefully, the SK will do some work for us before we find him.
  
  
• There will be one main doc train set up with myself and glow being right at front protecting the vigs; everyone else falls behind us protecting along the way.
  
  
• The vigs will always be protected by two doctors each, and instead of all 4 of those docs being unprotected, only 2 of them are, and they form the unprotected pair that BB will pick from.
  
  
• The two docs at the back will be removed from the train and form a pair of
  unprotected
  targets. BBmola will pick one of them randomly and attempt to kill them. If BB's kill is unsuccessful, then that unprotected target is almost certainly the SK and should be lynched the next day. There will be a possibility that it is a town doc being framed by the scum doc, but again, this is very very unlikely because the scum doc HAS to protect the person he is supposed to be protecting on the train or he/she risks outing themselves. If the target dies, then they will flip scum doc, goon or town doc.
  
  
  It is crucial that the two unprotected targets use their protective abilities to protect the vigs even tho one of the vigs is going to target them. Town docs should be willing to be in this position as it will reveal the SK. Obviously if the SK or goon ends up in the line of fire, they will be unable to protect the vigs, but luckily, the SK and scum do not know who each other are, and therefore a chance SK/scum joint attack on one of the vigs is extremely unlikely. Again, the scum doc is being forced to protect on the train.
  
  
  
• Meanwhile, Quoaroth chooses a random person on the train, with the exception of myself or glowball, and attempts to kill them. Now, the point here is not to confirm docs, because that is impossible until the SK is lynched. The aim here is to find the two goons. The goon cannot protect on the train, therefore they are sitting ducks. The scum doc cannot chance protecting the goons target for them, because they risk exposing themselves if their doc is targeted by Quoaroth.
  
  
• With this plan, there will always be three docs exposed and unprotected. The pair that make up BB's pool, and the doc at the very back of the train. This means that there are only 2 targets that the SK and scum can take out, the third will be taken out by BB. There is also the awesome chance that both the SK and scum will try to kill the last doc on the train, because they won't want to risk wasting a kill on a target that will potentially be killed anyway (BB's pool).
  
  
• Bonus:
  The SK could be doing us a favour by trying to kill someone else on the train, because if a town doc dies, the person supposed to be protecting them is confirmed goon, or a stupid scum doc. The scum cannot kill anyone else on the train without revealing themselves.
  
  
• Now, if BB is unsuccessful at finding the SK night 1, then on night 2, the doc from the back of the train (because lets face it, if that doc is still alive the next day, there is a very good chance he is scum or SK otherwise he would have been taken out) will join the other unprotected doc from night 1 to form the new pair of unprotected docs, and BB will randomly kill again. IF that doc was killed, then the next in line of the doc train will be taken.
  
  
• Scum hunting can go ahead as normal during the day, unless we have a confirmed SK to lynch from the night before.
  
  
• This plan enables one vig to try to find the SK, while the other concentrates on finding the goons. This routine continues night after night. The vigs are always protected and everyone else is picked off.
  
  *Disclaimer: this plan is not as well thought out as my other one, but it's difficult with the SK, and frankly I think neil is the SK and this plan will never be needed.
  
  I'm going to draw up all possible outcomes and see where they lead to. I just wanted to get the basics out there for people to read and highlight any flaws I've missed.
  
  

[Quilford]

I think that's a bad plan.

[whispersilk]

The train for the alternate plan might look like this:

Unprotected docs #1 + 2

VitaminR and Izak

both targets protect BBmolla, one of them is targeted by BBmolla

BBmola

Quoaroth

who is protected by:

whispersilk and glowball

one of whom is protected by:

Maruchan

who is protected by:

PiggyGal

who is protected by:

Quilford

who is protected by:

Thomith

who is protected by:

greyIce

Possible targets for scum/SK: greyIce, Izak and VitaminR. Seeing as one of those is going to be targeted by BB anyway, it means only two possible other targets remain. Unless scum/SK want to risk picking the protected one from myself and glowball. If either myself or glowball are killed, then I suggest Maru is removed from the train the next night and becomes a target of BB's. Hopefully SK and scum target the same person.

Scenario 1 - which weirdly enough would be bloody great:

BB's targets someone in his pool and that kill is successful = they flip town doc
Quoaroth targets someone on the train and that kill is unsuccessful = proving nothing
Scum and SK take out both of the other two unprotected docs and they both flip town doc = we are then down 3 town docs, however the general pool has become so much smaller that the scum and SK cannot hide another night and both vigs and myself are still alive. This in my mind = 1 confirmed town alive in a pool of 6 total, leaving a pool of 5 which more than half of which are anti-town and vigs should then repeat the plan taking the 2 bottom docs off the train for BB to target, and leaving one other exposed at the bottom (would probably be PiggyGal). This is not taking into account the fact that someone could be lynched during the day, meaning the pool would shrink even further to 4, and only one of those would be town. Happy days.

Scenario 2 - bloody awesome too imo

BB targets someone in his pool and that kill is successful = they flip town doc
Quoaroth targets someone (assume town doc rather than other scum or SK) on the train and that kill is successful = we found goon or SK and they are lynched the next day
Scum and SK take out both of the other two unprotected docs and they both flip town doc = we are then down 4 town docs, meaning there are two real town docs left one of which is me, everyone else is scum. Rinse and repeat.

I'm not really seeing anything wrong with this alternate plan. Even if hella town docs die on night 1, as long as both vigs and myself remain alive, virtually everyone else will be scum. There are of course other scenarios, but they are just minor changes to what is in effect a mass bloodbath leaving a bunch of town docs dead, but which reveals the scum and allows the vigs to kill them on night 2.

[whispersilk]

I think that's a bad plan.

I changed it slightly. Read the possible outcomes from night 1.

[whispersilk]

Scum and SK cannot kill anyone on the train without revealing other scum. They can only really target from a pool of 3 people, one of whom is going to maybe die anyway at the hands of BB.

[whispersilk]

Would be helpful if people could say why they think the plan is bad, so that those points can be addressed and worked on, or cleared up and proved sound.

[Thomith]

I think that's a bad plan.

wouldn't it be town motivated to point out why so we can fix it before we go into night?

[VitaminR]

izak's odd hyperbole and extensive theory discussion, as well as fluffing throughout the game makes me think he's scum

<3 Quilford

Scum are in Izak, Thomith, Whispersilk, with a nod to VitaminR.

Why thank you.

[VitaminR]

Btw,

Meh, the night action plan above gives probably 80%+ odds of town success. Whispersilk is pretty dead on. I thought there were a few hangups, but that plan, if Neil is the SK, wins us the game.

If Neils is scum, well, we're actually worse off, but only slightly.

This is a town post. Scum doesn't rail insincerely against a plan for a couple of pages, then do the maths and change their mind.

whispersilk is also town.

[VitaminR]

Pretty sure izak + {Thomith or Quilford} are scum.

Whisper's plan seems like a good one. If you check GreyICE's math, it works out pretty well even if our scumhunting sucks. I agree that Neil is pretty likely actually the SK considering his last few posts. His GreyICE thing sounds sincere. But, regardless, I think the plan for the other possibility is not a bad one (I don't really get what Quilford objects to).

[Thomith]

Pretty sure izak + {Thomith or Quilford} are scum.

Care to explain?

[VitaminR]

It's mostly based on PoE by means of town reads and the fact that Quilscum wouldn't list his two buddies as scum together.

[Thomith]

then why arent we town if you are going by PoE?

[whispersilk]

Ok, so I will type up the night 1 instructions for both plans very very clearly and post together. Then someone hammer neil.

[VitaminR]

Eh, it's not really that way. It's more that other people have earned town reads and you haven't. GreyICE seems way too dickish to be insincere. Don't think whisper would have been motivated to come up with those plans as scum at all. glowball has been way too engaged with this game to be scum. BBMolla and Quaroath are confirmed town. Maruchan read as town to me in his discussion of the vig plan with glow (I forget exactly what made me come to this conclusion, I can look it up if you want). After reading up on PiggyGal, I agree with Neil's assessment that she doesn't feel like someone who's having their first game as scum at all. And her suspicions of me seemed sincere.

That leaves you three, but I don't think you three are scum together for the above cited reason. So either two of you are scum with Neil and one of you is the SK (though SK is more of a wildcard, really) or Maruchan is scum and Quil is town or something.

[Thomith]

nobody can act too much like something to be scum.
Who do you find the most scummy out of us three and why?

[VitaminR]

I respectfully disagree.

izak, mostly for his early game behaviour. There were three people going after glow, who was a really easy target and izak was just repeating what BBMolla and Maru said while sitting back.

[Thomith]

I respectfully disagree.

Why do you dissagree?

Also maru made the vote serious after izak, scum seem to usually jump on a town wagon 3rd-5th, however this is all assuming glow is town.

[VitaminR]

I think glow is town.

I do think that someone can act too much like something to be scum. Any town read is subject to WIFOM, sure, but almost no one is capable of exploiting this fully.

[Maruchan]

There is no way for scum to over power the plan because it's the plan of win.

Also, that point was addressed in the plan.

That is what I am saying. -.- I am explaining that the scum can't overpower it, and if that makes me scummy, sobeit?