Open 329: Mayo Clinic D3: Town WINS!

[Thomith]

you said vigs randomly shoot each other, so my point still stands.

[whispersilk]

Please point out the flaw in my plan. Explicitly.

And if you can't, then I suggest you quit bitching about it, because it makes you look like scum.

[whispersilk]

you said vigs randomly shoot each other, so my point still stands.

No, I said that the vigs choose randomly between targeting someone on the doc train or targeting the other vig. They don't

have

to target each other at all, the point of the randomness is that the scum doc will not take the chance that vig 1 decides to target vig 2 too see if the doc protecting him is town. The idea is there to prevent scum taking a chance.

And should vig 1 decide to target vig 2 on night 2, then he should not be scared, because if that kill goes thru, then we have found the scum doc.

Seriously, how is this so hard for people to understand?

[whispersilk]

Post #876 was @greyice

[GreyICE]

Please point out the flaw in my plan. Explicitly.

And if you can't, then I suggest you quit bitching about it, because it makes you look like scum.

I did, EXPLICITLY.

2 goons. 10 possible vig targets.
2 targets will be unprotected by goon.
Thus each vig shot has 2/10 AKA 20% chance to find scum.
Thus, a given night has a 64% chance for no scum to be found.

Each night 1 townie dies.
Every time scum is found 1 townie dies.

If

we find exactly one scum a night

AND NO MORE

we'd lose 2 town for every scum.

This would mean it would cost us 4 townies to find both goons.

HOWEVER this has less than a 20% odds of happening 2 nights. More than 80% it will cost us

FIVE OR MORE TOWNIES

to find both goons. Leaving us in LyLo, or just LOST.

Your plan is a virtually assured scum victory unless town gets hysterically lucky.

Now tell me EXACTLY why I'm wrong Whispersilk, or claim scum with Neil and die like a whimpering dog.

[whispersilk]

Please point out the flaw in my plan. Explicitly.

And if you can't, then I suggest you quit bitching about it, because it makes you look like scum.

I did, EXPLICITLY.

2 goons. 10 possible vig targets.
2 targets will be unprotected by goon.
Thus each vig shot has 2/10 AKA 20% chance to find scum.
Thus, a given night has a 64% chance for no scum to be found.

Ok, so what happens if tonight, the vigs mis-shoot and kill two townies thinking they are scum, plus, the scum get a kill in too. Then what happens?

That's a possible 3 town dead in one night, and the town would know nothing.

btw,

THE POOL OF TARGETS IS 8 PEOPLE NOT 10. 7 docs and 1 vig. Where do you get 10 from?

The chance that the vigs will hit a TOWN tonight is higher than them hitting scum, BUT if they find two docs, then the POOL OF DOCS IS REDUCED BY TWO PLAYERS AND IT BECOMES 6. That means that night 2, there will be a two vigs finding 2/3 scum from a pool of 6 people. You need to learn math.

Each night 1 townie dies.
Every time scum is found 1 townie dies.

Exactly, meaning two town will die to find the two goons. How is that worse than randomly shooting PEOPLE YOU THINK ARE SCUM...LIKE ME?

If

we find exactly one scum a night

AND NO MORE

we'd lose 2 town for every scum.

This would mean it would cost us 4 townies to find both goons.

As opposed to at least 6 if the vigs hit wrong?

HOWEVER this has less than a 20% odds of happening 2 nights. More than 80% it will cost us

FIVE OR MORE TOWNIES

to find both goons. Leaving us in LyLo, or just LOST.

Your math is very very wrong, because you are talking about a pool of 10 targets, when there are only 8 at most.

Your plan is a virtually assured scum victory unless town gets hysterically lucky.

Again, fix your math, then come back at me with a decent argument.

Now tell me EXACTLY why I'm wrong Whispersilk, or claim scum with Neil and die like a whimpering dog.

I just did.

And I hope that if the town decide to go against the only sound plan that has been suggested, that the vigs take your advice and shoot me, because you are the most arrogant and annoying player I have encountered on this site, and I'd prefer to just be killed night one and let you get on with it.

[Thomith]

1- i misunderstood and i thought you meant the vigs shoot each other.

2- in the current plan the vigs shoot the same person to assure a kill and so we dont have massive tolls on town numbers which by claiming we were trying to avoid.

[whispersilk]

What?

lol, is the current #1 scum suspect the only one that understands the concept of the plan?

/facepalms

[GreyICE]

10 - the number of living, non-vig players each vig sees.

Duh.

[whispersilk]

Um, there is a pool of 7 docs on the train. Add to that 1 vig (assuming both vigs don't decide to randomly shoot each other on the same night) = 8.

Again, where do you get 10 from?

Oh wait, you think it's 10 because you STILL DON'T understand the plan. THE VIGS NEVER TARGET THE DOCS THAT ARE PROTECTING THEM, LEAVING A POOL OF 8 PEOPLE MAX, MOST LIKELY 7.

Read the plan, then get back to me when you understand it.

[glowball]

Too many chiefs not enough indians.

EVERYONE and I mean EVERYONE needs to get off their leader horse. Whispersilk you seem like you are trying to prove yourself entirely too much, this isn't the game for that you can go back to the Road to Rome if you want to feel superior. GreyICE, if you are town this is the can of worms you wanted to open up. You wanted a mass claim and with the mass claim comes plan making and everyone wants to make one and thinks theirs is the best. I don't like any of the plans because any of you could be scum. Problem is no one listens to me.

I don't like GreyICE backing out of his deal with izak- suspect
Vigs should be shooting from respective vig pools as originally planned.

[GreyICE]

Um, there is a pool of 7 docs on the train. Add to that 1 vig (assuming both vigs don't decide to randomly shoot each other on the same night) = 8.

Again, where do you get 10 from?

Oh wait, you think it's 10 because you STILL DON'T understand the plan. THE VIGS NEVER TARGET THE DOCS THAT ARE PROTECTING THEM, LEAVING A POOL OF 8 PEOPLE MAX, MOST LIKELY 7.

Read the plan, then get back to me when you understand it.

Same odds, since the docs protecting them have the SAME 20%

Unless you are claiming the two unprotected docs are confirmed town or something?

[GreyICE]

Do the math for me, whispersilk. Do it now. Assume random chance, random odds, random luck, tell me town chance of victory off your plan.

Factor in scum doctor.

[Thomith]

Vigs should be shooting from respective vig pools as originally planned.

[glowball]

Vigs should be shooting from respective vig pools as originally planned.

I get what Whispersilk is saying, she wants the option that the vigs might shoot each other out there so that a MafiaDoctor wouldn't think to gamble (if they were protecting a vig) and use their protect for one of the goons protections.

She basically wants to scare them away from trying anything tricky because there is a good possibility that the Mafia Doctor could do that which is what I was getting at earlier and because Whisper did notice that and attempted to modify her plan for it she definitely gets town points. She definitely didn't have to bring it up and if she is mafia it was really only working against that. I think she is town, however it is easy to realize that vigs will probably never shoot each other. If we are going to use that principle then we really should have the scummiest players protecting vigs and going unprotected.

[PiggyGal15]

I think everyone needs to remember we've also got the chance to

scumhunt

during the day. We keep talking about how Whispers plan doesn't work because it kills off too many townies, but if we catch scum

during the day

then the Night will become even easier. We really do need to remember that even with a plan, Day 2 and on will also be used to catch scum, not just at night.

[whispersilk]

Um, there is a pool of 7 docs on the train. Add to that 1 vig (assuming both vigs don't decide to randomly shoot each other on the same night) = 8.

Again, where do you get 10 from?

Oh wait, you think it's 10 because you STILL DON'T understand the plan. THE VIGS NEVER TARGET THE DOCS THAT ARE PROTECTING THEM, LEAVING A POOL OF 8 PEOPLE MAX, MOST LIKELY 7.

Read the plan, then get back to me when you understand it.

Same odds, since the docs protecting them have the SAME 20%

Unless you are claiming the two unprotected docs are confirmed town or something?

What on earth are you talking about?

IF IF the vigs do not find even one scum tonight, there will be 2 confirmed docs, and the pool of players the vigs will be aiming at will reduce to 6 because one of the docs protecting the vigs will die because they are the only targets for the scum to kill and the other one gets thrown back into the pool... leaving the two confirmed docs protecting the vigs. Someone is bound to be hunted during the day, leaving a pool of 5 docs for the vigs to aim at. How on earth do you get a 20% chance from 2 vigs hunting 2 scum from 5 people? Are you crazy, stupid, arrogant or just plain scum?

Nevermind the possibility that if one of the vigs hit scum on night 1, it means we lose one townie to the scum, one to the vig shot, and the scum caught it lynched the following day. That still leaves 5 people in the doc pool. Still leaves two vigs to find just ONE scum. The scum doc is taken care of last as per the plan.

Hey, what if the vigs hit 2 scum tonight using the plan. That means that the only person left to get is the doc.

Seriously, you want to just kill people randomly based upon some stupid deal that still has not been explained to me even after I've asked for it to be explained numerous times.

I really hope both vigs and the rest of the town can see that this plan is good and will work, and that people like you who can't even be bothered to read the plan but like to nit pick are obv scum, or just stupid town.

[whispersilk]

I think everyone needs to remember we've also got the chance to

scumhunt

during the day. We keep talking about how Whispers plan doesn't work because it kills off too many townies, but if we catch scum

during the day

then the Night will become even easier. We really do need to remember that even with a plan, Day 2 and on will also be used to catch scum, not just at night.

Yeah, thanks for being the only person to pick up on the scum hunting and lynching that will take place during the day.

[GreyICE]

Whispersilk, math.

There's two goons. Do the math now. What are the odds that one of the people one of the two goons is supposed to protect eats a vig shot?

(And this is all based on Neil flipping SK anyway)

[whispersilk]

Uhm, there are two vigs. Two vigs can shoot two people out of a possible 5.

Let's assume that neither of them find scum on night two, as you say. Just so we are clear this is all assuming that That means there are 2 more confirmed docs, and one townie dead from the scum shot.

[whispersilk]

oops, somehow posted that while typing. I'll start again.

Let's assume that the vigs don't hit scum on night 1 or night 2. That will mean there are four confirmed docs taken from the pool. Now, that leaves how many? 3 docs in the pool, one of which can be lynched the following day 3, which will leave 2 docs on the train on night FOUR, AND GUESS WHAT? THEY WILL BE CONFIRMED GOONS BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONLY ONES LEFT. THE VIGS SHOOT THEM AND IT LEAVES JUST THE SCUM DOC TO SHOOT. AND GUESS HOW MANY TOTAL TOWN ARE LOST OVER 4 NIGHTS?

4

This is all assuming that the vgis don't catch at least one scum per night, which I'm fairly sure they can do. This is worst case scenario. 4 town deaths, which btw, we can't stop any way, to catch the scum. After that the vigs just kill off the remaining few docs left and they will have caught the scum doc.

[Thomith]

that plan makes sence and the goons will be caught eventially according to logic.

[whispersilk]

Exactly, his 20% nonsense is just that, nonsense. Even if the vigs fail to find both goons over 2 nights, the third day will leave just two docs on the train, and by default they will both be scum.

Honestly, please, this plan is fool proof, and the people that are raging at me and calling me scum, are trying to stop everyone from agreeing to it.

[glowball]

Who is raging at you besides GreyICE?

[Thomith]

people raging at whisper-
grey
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grey.