Open 317 Masons & Monks (Game Over) Finished: September 8

Mist7676 · Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 4:20 pm

Vote Count:

Scott Brosius - 1 - (DeityKabuto) (L-3)
Guido Crescendo - 1 - (andrew94) (L-3)
andrew94 - 3 - (zMuffinMan, bvoigt, Guido Crescendo) (L-1)
bvoigt - 1 - (Cirno) (L-3)

Not Voting: Scott Brosius

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch!

andrew94 · Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 5:05 pm

i found him scummy before he made the assumption.
so your case on me is about yanks?

bvoigt · Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 1:53 am

andrew94 wrote:i found him scummy before he made the assumption.
so your case on me is about yanks?

Yes, pretty much.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 1:54 am

Apologies, been really lazy. Getting to this in next 18 hours.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 9:21 pm

DK wrote:Lets hurry and lynch scott, Thor was Town and he suspected scott. Scott already has suspicion since both days ago. He is not a bad lynch.

Thor had a number of suspicions. Why do you want to lynch Scott over his other suspicions?

Scott wrote:Cirno looks bad on the GC wagon assuming that it's not all town.

Scott wrote:Knowing myself to be town, it would be all town if you are town. That seems unlikely but is ultimately WIFOM.

er...

I need to think about something here.

unvote

zMuffinMan · Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 9:29 pm

scott wrote:How does me being on wagons look bad? I don't understand that concept.

OK then...

Well apart from the fact that it should be rather obvious what the answer to that question is, it's inconsistent with this...

scott wrote:The VCA is interesting though. Cirno looks bad on the GC wagon assuming that it's not all town.

Two more things here:

1) It

looks

like you're suggesting that Guido is town. Otherwise, I can't really understand why Cirno would "look bad" on that wagon.
2) Why is that particular wagon the only one that stood out to you? No other opinions on the VCA?

Scott Brosius · Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 2:55 am

Cirno if you are town, then the wagon is entirely town. That seems unlikely.

I never suggested that, or at least I did not intend to. In a game that is 4/12 scum with 2 scum groups it seems HIGHLY unlikely that any collection of 6 players would all be town. Even just randomly taking 6 players puts that at about 8%. But opposing scumteams makes it even more likely that scum was somewhere on the wagon. It's something to consider later, given Cirno hasn't really pinged my scumdar otherwise. However, this points more towards Cirno being the final wolf, as we know GC is not a wolf (granted bussing is possible both being mafia)

I'm leaning toward GC being scum. I still feel that slot has also been floating through the game even since L-1. I replaced in as that was happening though, so I don't really recall the playstyle before that. I'm going to go back and look at that.

Yank being off every wagon was the only other interesting thing to me. That screams avoidance and an attempt to just cruise through.

Scott Brosius · Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 3:03 am

I don't understand the concept of being on wagons, when I have explained all my votes. If I was senselessly vote hopping for the easiest lynch, that would be one thing. But I explained all my reasons for being on the wagons. GC was clearly the weakest reasoning for me but this game was going absolutely nowhere when I replaced in and a flip was going to be best. Especially with 2 scum groups killing, much more information can be divulged with 2 dead bodies the next day especially looking into potential crosskills. Explained further in post 1111

zMuffinMan · Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 1:28 pm

scott wrote:I never suggested that, or at least I did not intend to. In a game that is 4/12 scum with 2 scum groups it seems HIGHLY unlikely that any collection of 6 players would all be town. Even just randomly taking 6 players puts that at about 8%.

I've seen far too many people lynched on this basis. It's a really easy excuse for scum to jump on. For example, Cold War Mafia (which bvoigt played in) - Enigma was lynched pretty much purely on bandwagon analysis (he was part of an 8 person bandwagon on town that was entirely town, and supposedly the odds of that happening were extreeeeemely low). I'm always wary of people using this as an excuse for lynching someone because it's a cop out substitute for actually scum hunting.

scott wrote:Yank being off every wagon was the only other interesting thing to me. That screams avoidance and an attempt to just cruise through.

So what's your actual opinion on andrew then?

Do you think he's scum?

Why are you withholding your vote?

scott wrote:I don't understand the concept of being on wagons, when I have explained all my votes.

Most people explain their votes. Even "senseless vote hopping" is generally explained in one way or another.

----

Anyway, back to business.

VOTE: andrew

Scott Brosius · Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 2:36 pm

zMuffinMan wrote:
scott wrote:I never suggested that, or at least I did not intend to. In a game that is 4/12 scum with 2 scum groups it seems HIGHLY unlikely that any collection of 6 players would all be town. Even just randomly taking 6 players puts that at about 8%.

I've seen far too many people lynched on this basis. It's a really easy excuse for scum to jump on. For example, Cold War Mafia (which bvoigt played in) - Enigma was lynched pretty much purely on bandwagon analysis (he was part of an 8 person bandwagon on town that was entirely town, and supposedly the odds of that happening were extreeeeemely low). I'm always wary of people using this as an excuse for lynching someone because it's a cop out substitute for actually scum hunting.

scott wrote:Yank being off every wagon was the only other interesting thing to me. That screams avoidance and an attempt to just cruise through.

So what's your actual opinion on andrew then?

Do you think he's scum?

Why are you withholding your vote?

scott wrote:I don't understand the concept of being on wagons, when I have explained all my votes.

Most people explain their votes. Even "senseless vote hopping" is generally explained in one way or another.

----

Anyway, back to business.

VOTE: andrew

I was also in that game. Which is why I said since I have no other reason to think Cirno is scum, it's not currently worth pursuing. I'm not saying it's the basis of a case, but it's something to think about. Not sure why you are trying to make it seem like I want to lynch Cirno simply based on that.

My votes have had legitimate reasons.

I really have nothing to say about that slot as nothing sticks out. No opinions nothing besides that one comment about specifically hitting a scumgroup. That's a giant concern and coupled with the avoidance of every single wagon its quite scummy. Actually going through his ISO he has made about 3 votes total. For a split second on DK and mostly on small/muffin slot before andrew replaced in. I'm fine hammering.

Vote: andrew

zMuffinMan · Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 5:45 pm

Yeah, I know you were in that game, but you weren't alive when it happened and I wasn't sure whether you were following it at that point. The reason I'm bringing it up is that the

only

thing you had to say about the VCA is that Cirno looks bad because of it (until I pointed out that andrew/Yank weren't on any of the bandwagons). I don't understand why that particular vote count was the only one that interested you.

Everyone will claim they voted for legitimate reasons.

Also wondering why you were so hesitant in laying down a vote.

andrew94 · Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 6:50 pm

did i just get hammered?

u guys just lost the game

andrew94 · Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 6:57 pm

scott is obviously scum, maybe dk.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 7:04 pm

...

I'm disregarding possible WIFOM until I see your flip.

If you're actually town, it just means we're heavily relying on scum cross-killing.

The remaining werewolf pretty much needs to hit mafia tonight, anyway.

Cirno · Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Mon Aug 29, 2011 4:47 am

Looks like we are goin into night anyway, but I haven't posted in awhile so I'm checking in.

Mist7676 · Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Mon Aug 29, 2011 2:37 pm

After the bickering quiets down I walk back into the room, Scott quickly runs up to me, "HIM HE IS THE MAFIA GO KILL HIM NOW!"
"Ok, ok you don't have to yell. Let's go andrew." I grab andrew but he fights back.
"No! I'm not mafia! I swear!"
"Sorry it's been decided."
"NO!" This is when the fangs come out. "I will stay here and you all will be my dinner. Starting with you Mist!" Andrew throws me up and bares his teeth.
"NOO!" I close my eyes and wait for the last moments of my life.
"

BANG

" I fall on the floor with a thud.
"What happened?" Someone questions. I inspect the body. Square in the head was a bullet.
"Looks like the mafia saved us this time...

Andrew94 the last remaining werewolf has died Day 3.

The night will last 'till September 1st 5:00 CST

Mist7676 · Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:54 pm

Mist walked in to see everyone crowded in a circle overlooking some grusome scene probably. Mist walked in through the middle to see just a note reading, "DK WAS DELICIOUS!! OH YEA AND IF YOU DON'T KILL ONE OF US TODAY, YOU'RE ALL DEAD! LOL GOOD LUCK!!! AND I'M FEELING NICE SO IMMA TELL YOU WHAT DK WAS. DUMBASS MASON!

DeityKabuto the town mason was killed Night 3 by the Mafia

Today is LYLO you must lynch a mafia today or it's over!!!

Mist7676 · Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:57 pm

With 5 alive it's 3 to lynch

Scott Brosius · Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:31 pm

My vote will undoubtedly be on bvoigt (mostly due to cjdrum) or GC.

Any reads from either monk from your QT? Lack of participation, anything of interest?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 8:08 pm

Uh... Our QT is mostly void, and I didn't particularly see any reason to post in it last night.

I'll be doing my own VCA at some point in time this weekend (hopefully).

bvoigt · Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Sat Sep 03, 2011 12:47 pm

My vote will probably be on Scott, but I'll try to do more thorough analysis as soon as I can.

Scott Brosius · Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2011 9:03 am

I'm not voting until everyone pops in, but I'm leaning heavily towards GC. Few reasons.

I replaced in as the initial wagon on him was growing, Cirno might be the only one who can accurately attest to this, but it is my feeling that since the wagon disassembled, GC has been coasting. Again, maybe Cirno being the only person in this game who replaced before I did has a better idea in terms of content but this game is 46 pages. He had 29 posts Day 1. He has had 40 posts total. That means since D1 and the wagon fell apart on him....he has only 11 posts in 2 full days and 16 pages. Is this the same playstyle that we saw D1? This is very indicative of being close to a lynch then avoiding attention for the rest of the game. Standard scum behavior.

Second is that muffin is most likely town. That leaves 2 scum in voigt Cirno GC. Given the pisswar that happened pretty much the entirety that cjdrum was in the game between cjdrum and Cirno, that is definitely not scum/scum (especially now that only 1 scum group is left). Since only one of them is scum, GC has to be scum.

Cue GC coveniently appearing in thread 2 hours after this post.

Scott Brosius · Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2011 9:06 am

In post 1145, bvoigt wrote:My vote will probably be on Scott, but I'll try to do more thorough analysis as soon as I can.

Is this only case here that I've been on wagons? Why choose me over GC if that is true (given that he has also been on every wagon besides his own)

Cirno · Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:11 pm

Got prodded. My obvious first choice would be bvoigt. After that Guido. But frankly, I should look back over the game and I won't really have the time until Wednesday.

bvoigt · Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:24 pm

In post 1147, Scott Brosius wrote:
In post 1145, bvoigt wrote:My vote will probably be on Scott, but I'll try to do more thorough analysis as soon as I can.

Is this only case here that I've been on wagons? Why choose me over GC if that is true (given that he has also been on every wagon besides his own)

Well, the GC wagon was arguably the worst one to be on, because everyone except you and Cirno is confirmed non-mafia.