Double-Dip Mafia, Game Over

[Empking]

This is accurate quoting? Really?

Unvote Unvote Vote: Kunkstar

Btw, who is scum to you?

[...]Tons of vote changes from Empking seems sketch. Count of 6 separate players without any logical explanation for any of the changes.[...]

ohai. Answer to Elli: played with Furry when I first joined the site.

I commend Elli for going out on a limb and considering nk speculation

. I don't think scum would make an entirely random kill so at least one of the scumgroup must have played/modded with Furry and had a reason to kill him. This lowers our lynch pool for at least one scum to a group of players who have interacted with Furry in previous games.

Whatsup with the smalls wagon? Legit or just randomwagongo?

So why do you think Furry was killed?

Second paragraph sounds fake. Scum would say something like this, to appease the person asking about the kill. Rest is wifom speculation of what scum may NOT have done. Doesn't consider what other options scum may have taken.

Bold emits "HAI KAN I JOIN WAGON PLZ?" Basically asking permission to get on a wagon. Doesn't address any suspicions, events, nor votes.

Unvote Unvote Vote: Kunkstar

Btw, who is scum to you?

Because yes scum is going to go "N0 KILL RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR GO". Scum have every reason to make a kill that will be most advantageous to them. They don't decide what is most advantageous by just picking a random player, they pick someone they know what their play is like. The only situation where the scum haven't played/modded with Furry is if they read a random game with Furry in it but didn't play themselves. The problem with that is it is hard to judge a player's impact externally, so they would go for a player that they had played with and felt the impact of their play personally.

GD Low Key what does it take for you to answer Ran's #71? You didn't explain where the town read started to begin with so there is no connection whatsoever.

Ran and Amrun are town. Amrun is Amrun. I like Ran's content so far.

Tons of vote changes from Empking seems sketch. Count of 6 separate players without any logical explanation for any of the changes.

Also: DGB's argument for it to be distancing is reliant on Crazy being town with Kunk ignoring me and voting for two townies. Imag is saying the scuim team is me and Crazy.

[Empking]

This is accurate quoting? Really?

Unvote Unvote Vote: Kunkstar

Btw, who is scum to you?

[...]Tons of vote changes from Empking seems sketch. Count of 6 separate players without any logical explanation for any of the changes.[...]

ohai. Answer to Elli: played with Furry when I first joined the site.

I commend Elli for going out on a limb and considering nk speculation

. I don't think scum would make an entirely random kill so at least one of the scumgroup must have played/modded with Furry and had a reason to kill him. This lowers our lynch pool for at least one scum to a group of players who have interacted with Furry in previous games.

Whatsup with the smalls wagon? Legit or just randomwagongo?

So why do you think Furry was killed?

Second paragraph sounds fake. Scum would say something like this, to appease the person asking about the kill. Rest is wifom speculation of what scum may NOT have done. Doesn't consider what other options scum may have taken.

Bold emits "HAI KAN I JOIN WAGON PLZ?" Basically asking permission to get on a wagon. Doesn't address any suspicions, events, nor votes.

Unvote Unvote Vote: Kunkstar

Btw, who is scum to you?

Because yes scum is going to go "N0 KILL RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR GO". Scum have every reason to make a kill that will be most advantageous to them. They don't decide what is most advantageous by just picking a random player, they pick someone they know what their play is like. The only situation where the scum haven't played/modded with Furry is if they read a random game with Furry in it but didn't play themselves. The problem with that is it is hard to judge a player's impact externally, so they would go for a player that they had played with and felt the impact of their play personally.

GD Low Key what does it take for you to answer Ran's #71? You didn't explain where the town read started to begin with so there is no connection whatsoever.

Ran and Amrun are town. Amrun is Amrun. I like Ran's content so far.

Tons of vote changes from Empking seems sketch. Count of 6 separate players without any logical explanation for any of the changes.

[/quote]

Also: DGB's argument for it to be distancing is reliant on Crazy being town with Kunk ignoring me and voting for two townies. Imag is saying the scuim team is me and Crazy.

[imaginality]

DGB was wrong with the 'no kunkstar vote ever', yes, but she definitely wasn't wrong about you only ever offering a null read on him.
And your vote was just a wagon hop on the day we quicklynched him, null at best, so whether DGB was lying or mistaken about that doesn't change anything.


As for the harder-to-town-read-as-scum, I disagree personally - it's just a case of faking town-hunting like you'd fake scum-hunting, I think you can still spot towntells as scum, just as much as scumtells. But it might be true for you, I guess, depending on playstyle.


P-edit: I think kunk was bussing Crazy and ignoring you. I don't think DGB's argument relies on Crazy being town. You, kunk and Crazy makes sense to me.

[Tarhalindur]

Here, will post later today (hopefully, still having RL time issues).

[Amrun]

Still waiting.

[imaginality]

Where are you at with things, Amrun? I'm asking because deadline's about 30 hours away and Tarhalindur seems to be having difficulty connecting to MS at the moment. If you want to hear his thoughts before deciding who to vote, maybe we should ask for a deadline extension?

[Empking]

Vote: Crazy

Imaginality: I think both of us forgot about this ability!

[Empking]

Vote: Imag

Rather

[imaginality]

I didn't forget. From your perspective, that vote's fair enough - with Crazy voting you and no quicklynch, at least one of the two of you is scum. Which, combined with me voting you, again with no quicklynch occurring, means the only possibilities now are either you're scum (with Crazy or Amrun or Tar as scumbuddy), or Crazy and I are scumbuddies.

So, supposing you're town, you know Crazy and I are scum, and can vote us both. I know you're not town, but you casting a second vote here isn't scummy.


But for me, I now know

you're definitely

scum (if you're town, you'd have been quicklynched). But I don't

know

Crazy's

definitely

scum.

Sure, I think it's very very likely (if I had to bet I'd put it at, I dunno, maybe a 90% chance, with 9% chance of Tar-scum and 1% chance of Amrun-scum). But that still means me casting a vote on him as well as on you is just an unnecessary risk right now on the slim off-chance it's you and Tar (or the even slimmer off-chance it's you and Amrun). If that's the case, then your scumbuddy could hammer him.

So no, I'm not going to throw my second vote on Crazy, and risk a non-zero chance of us losing, when I can keep my single vote on you and know for sure it's on scum.

Added to that is the fact that my reason for voting you rather than him is I think he's more likely to get lynched tomorrow than you. I don't want him lynched today when we can lynch you today.

[Tarhalindur]

Access to MafiaScum? WHAT IS THIS MADNESS

I am not hammering Empking. As such, the only way I can be scum is if Empking is my partner.

I am sufficiently confident in Amrun being town that I want her to have the hammer today, though I will hammer if necessary to avoid a deadline lynch.

By PoE scum must be two of {Empking, Crazy, imaginality}. Can I rule out a possible pairing between these three? If yes, the common member of the possible pairings is the correct lynch today.

I have doubts about the feasibility of imaginality-Empking as a pairing (bussing at LyLo is a time-honored strategy - see Kinetic's Vortex for a shining example of this - but imaginality's play doesn't read like a bus to me).

Actually, you know what? Screw it. It's time to risk the game on my Crazy read. I'm considerably more sure he's scum than Empking, and from my perspective there's one very firm benefit to the Crazy lynch: Lynching Crazyscum HARDCLEARS me as town.

Amrun, pay close attention: I did not hammer Empking despite him being at L-2. If I am scum then there must be at least one townie on the Empking wagon. Ergo, the ONLY way I can be scum is if Empking is my partner. If Crazy flips scum, then Empking CANNOT be my partner (because we would have lost already if there were four scum to start), ergo if Crazy is confirmed Mafia (by flip) then I cannot possibly be Mafia.

Vote: Crazy

If the scumteam is actually Emp/imag, well played, and shame on Crazy for that quickhammer as town at a day from LyLo.

---

PPE: Emp, if you are town then you will remove that vote on imaginality IMMEDIATELY. Failure to do so WILL result in your lynch today - I'd rather lynch Crazy first, but I WILL hammer you for that today if necessary.

[Empking]

Unvote: Imaginality

Why?

[Tarhalindur]

Unvote: Imaginality

Why?

Not taking any chances.

Also, because I wasn't really thinking it through - there ISN'T any risk from you using your second vote on imag, because either you're scum or you're voting for both scum. Never mind, revote him if you wish.

[imaginality]

Tarhalindur's post makes total sense. Getting himself 100%-cleared as town would be an excellent benefit of a Crazy lynch in this situation.

Either way looks good for us though, because Amrun will also be cleared assuming she votes scum today (and I think Crazy and Empking are both scum, so she'll be cleared either way). If Amrun were scum, she could mislynch whichever of Empking and Crazy is town.

So if Amrun lynches Empking and he's scum, it clears her, and tomorrow is Tarhalindur-me-Crazy, or Amrun-me-Crazy or Amrun-Tar-Crazy with Amrun cleared. Crazy's not escaping any of those, I think.
And if Amrun lynches Crazy and he's scum, it clears both her and Tarhalindur, and one of them will definitely be killed, leaving Amrun-me-Empking with Amrun cleared, or Tar-me-Empking with Tar cleared.

All of those possibilities seem good to me.

[imaginality]

Actually you can rule out Amrun-me-Crazy from the possibilities listed above - that'd 100% confirm Crazy as scum, since if he were town, he'd know I'm town (I haven't hammered him).

Revised version:

If Amrun lynches Empking and he's scum, then tomorrow is going to be Tar-me-Crazy or Amrun-Tar-Crazy, with Crazy and Tarhalindur cross-voting in either case.
If Amrun lynches Crazy and he's scum, then tomorrow is going to be is Amrun-me-Empking or Tar-me-Empking, with me and Empking cross-voting in either case.

[imaginality]

And here are how things stand from a town-read perspective - this is from Amrun's point of view if she's town (and if she's not, we've already lost):

If imaginality's town, Empking's definitely scum.
If Crazy's town, Empking's definitely scum and Tarhalindur's definitely scum.
If Empking's town, imaginality's definitely scum and Crazy's definitely scum.
If Tarhalindur's town, Crazy's definitely scum.

[Crazy]

No need to say it like it's a big logic puzzle. Tar's like "I can't be scum with anybody but Empking." I mean, wasn't that obvious already?

If Amrun is town (which we'll find out soon), then it's either me/imag or Empking/Tar. (Or I suppose a very tiny chance of me/Empking)
If Amrun is scum then he'll win next time he logs on.

I'll answer any questions from Amrun, of course.

[Empking]

If Amrun is town (which we'll find out soon), then it's either me/imag or Empking/Tar.

(Or I suppose a very tiny chance of me/Empking)

Oh, that's just transparent.

[Crazy]

If you want to make an argument that me and you are the scum-team, be my guest.

[petroleumjelly]

Day Six Vote Count #4

2 Crazy (Empking, Tarhalindur)
2 Empking (imaginality, Crazy)

With

5

alive, it takes

3

to lynch. Deadline is August 27 at 5:00 PM PDT.

Not Voting - 1 - Amrun

[Amrun]

Okay, leaning towards voting empking at the moment (no surprise).

But I don't want to do it willy nilly. I have computer access tonight, and I have some modding duties to take care of, but I will be hammering before bed.

:/

Lots of pressure here.

[Empking]

Okay, leaning towards voting empking at the moment (no surprise).

How well do you think I can read town as scum, really?

[Empking]

Besides the shitty quickhammer and the long-forgotten defense of kunkstar, I'm still stuck at "why scott brosius over me."

The only differences between us are that I professed a scumread on Tar and a townread on Crazy.

The reason for the kill is in these two - but which one?

Remember this post? Not hammering Crazy is the same as saying Tar is scum and Crazy is probably town. In that case why did scum keep you alive?

[Amrun]

Okay, leaning towards voting empking at the moment (no surprise).

How well do you think I can read town as scum, really?

No idea what this means.

I'm still evaluating who I'm going to vote.

[Empking]

Okay, leaning towards voting empking at the moment (no surprise).

How well do you think I can read town as scum, really?

No idea what this means.

Why was I first to see your towniness?

[Amrun]

I think that's a question you should be answering.