Double-Dip Mafia, Game Over

[Empking]

If your top two scumpairs are crazy/tar and imag/tar, why would you want to vote for crazy, empking?

Imag/Crazy is my new second most likely pairing.

[Amrun]

Why?

[Empking]

Why?

Because I decided Crazy was scummier than Tar.

[Amrun]

Doesn't explain an imag/crazy scumteam.

[imaginality]

First, I just want to note that Empking's posts these last couple of pages are pretty bad. His reaction to my proposal, his "Can I just vote Crazy, now?", his reluctance to consider cases made in lylo.


And with that said, I'm going to vote Empking. This is a carefully-considered vote, not cast in haste. Here's why it now makes sense to me for me to vote Empking:

* Crazy-Empking are looking so likely the remaining scumpair to me. Partly due to individual scumminess, partly due to links to each other and to kunkstar, partly because after re-reading their isos and the game thread, I'm pretty convinced of Amrun-town and Tarhalindur-town. I don't see this changing. (Earlier, I was feeling less sure in my townread on Tar in particular, so at that time the Crazy-Empking pairing looked just probable instead of almost certain.) So, yep, Crazy and Empking are scum.

* But if we lynch Crazy first, I'm worried Empking has a decent chance of escaping tomorrow. The possibilities are:

(A) Empking kills me, leaving Amrun-Tar-Empking: that gives Amrun a tricky choice between Tarhalindur and Empking
(B) Empking kills Amrun, leaving me-Tar-Empking: Empking's going to try to get Tarhalindur to mislynch me or me to mislynch Tarhalindur
(C) Empking kills Tarhalindur, leaving me-Amrun-Empking: this would be hard for Empking to escape from given Amrun and I lean town on each other, so I doubt he'd kill Tarhalindur tonight. So I rule out this option as a possibility.


...Now, if I vote Empking, with high confidence he's scum, what's the risks to us as town? Here's how I see it.

If there's no quicklynch, that proves to everyone that either Empking's scum or I am. Then:

(1) we lynch Empking today and lynching Crazy tomorrow is an easy choice, whether it's Crazy-me-Tarhalindur, Crazy-me-Amrun or Crazy-Tarhalindur-Amrun. I think it's pretty clear-cut Crazy's Empking's scumbuddy, and it's very unlikely Crazy will wriggle free tomorrow, whoever he nightkills.
(2) we could still lynch Crazy today anyhow - but doing so would force Empking into the me-Tar-Empking situation tomorrow (killing me confirms Empking as scum, killing Tar leaves Empking very likely to be lynched). That would give Tar the deciding vote and Empking would have to convince Tarhalindur to mislynch me
(3) we lynch me today. This would lose us the game, but with Amrun saying she's unlikely to vote me, this boils down to the same as (2) - Empking has to convince Tarhalindur to mislynch me

Now, (1) is clearly better than (A) or (B) - I feel there's clearly less chance of a mislynch if Crazy's alive tomorrow than if Empking is.
(2) and (3) are also clearly better than (B) - because in (B), there's the additional chance of me second-guessing myself and mislynching Tarhalindur. In (2) and (3), that's not possible.
So, the question is, what's better between (2)/(3) and A?


I'm backing myself here. I think I've played pretty clearly town in this game, and I think there's less chance of Tarhalindur mislynching me, than of Amrun mislynching Tar.

Vote: Empking

(hopes he hasn't handed the game to scum)

[Empking]

(hopes he hasn't handed the game to scum)

Bull. Yourt case against me is that I'm essentially too town to be a definite lynch if Crazy is lyncherd first.

Amrun:
If Crazy is scummier than Tar then Crazy/Imaginality isd more likely than Tar/Imaginality. There's also the fact that Imag was trying to get me to vote Tar.

[Amrun]

Empking, what? That makes no sense.

I am okay with this. Hopefully it's not crazy-tar.t

[Empking]

Empking, what? That makes no sense.

If Crazy is scummier than Tar then (in general) scum teams with Crazy in will be more likely than those with Tar.

[Amrun]

No, not necessarily.

[Crazy]

If imag is scum that was insanely stupid, since he already had the win. (As long as whichever of Empking/Tar wasn't his partner voted for me.)

Yeah, it could be an elaborate WIFOM gambit, but that would still be pointless, since he could have won much more easily if he had just voted for me.

I'll think it over some more, but still, it's really hard to imagine. Lucky it happened, though, since it saved me from a mislynch and before this I was leaning towards imag/Tar as the scum-team.

@Empking - If you don't want me to vote for you, explain how Imag/Tar still makes sense. Or are you now assuming that it has to be Imag/me?

[Crazy]

And I feel safe enough that it's not Tar/Amrun that I'm not worried about a quickhammer.

[petroleumjelly]

Day Six Vote Count #3

1 Empking (imaginality)

With

5

alive, it takes

3

to lynch. Deadline is August 27 at 5:00 PM PDT.

Not Voting - 4 - Amrun, Crazy, Empking, Tarhalindur

Mod Note

: Tarhalindur has been prodded.

[Amrun]

P excited because I am p sure the scumteam is Empking and Tar.

[imaginality]

(hopes he hasn't handed the game to scum)

Bull. Yourt case against me is that I'm essentially too town to be a definite lynch if Crazy is lyncherd first.

Uh, no. That's not my case against you. It's just why I want you lynched first and Crazy second rather than vice versa.


@everyone else:

Notice Empking's reaction to my vote. He doesn't consider the chance I'm mistaken town - I find it significant he's made no attempt to tell me to unvote him before he gets quicklynched. He knows he can't lose the game today, because he's scum.

Counterpoint: maybe he's convinced I'm scum and that's why he didn't try to dissuade me. In that case: if he's convinced I'm scum, why hasn't he cross-voted yet? Again, that seems odd for a townie, sure of my scumminess, to overlook.

Either way, his response doesn't ring true of how a townie would respond to being voted in lylo.



We haven't had Tarhalindur come by yet so I guess a quicklynch is still hypothetically possible, but I'm feeling very good about my vote right now.


In my next post: a detailed summary of why Empking's scum.

[Empking]

Imag: Are you really saying that as town I'd have to go "OMG unvote me lol we in LyoL"? Sorry for presuming you had multiple brain cells.

Crazy: Why doesn't Imag/Tar make sense?

[Crazy]

Crazy: Why doesn't Imag/Tar make sense?

If it was imag/Tar then it would be stupid for imag to vote for you when they could have easily lynched me (with your vote) and won. Imag would have thrown away a guaranteed win for a more difficult win. I don't think he would be that stupid.

[Crazy]

Eh, just VOTE: Empking. I'm tired of waiting and I can't see myself changing my mind.

[Empking]

Vote: Crazy

[imaginality]

A dozen reasons why Empking's scum:

1. Making an effort to scumhunt D1 then slacking off on D2 is a pattern I've seen time and again from scum. D3's too short to count, but he laid low at the start of D4 too, until he started getting some DGB-pressure on him.
2. He voted immediately in a possible lylo situation yesterday - scum would know it wasn't lylo.
3. As DGB says, he's a believable buddy for kunkstar7, links-wise: from kunkstar7 and to kunkstar7.
4. Ranmaru caught Empking changing his read on Pom just because of the town changing its read on her - scum, swaying with whatever direction town's opinion goes in.
5. An instance of dodging a question from Quilford.
6. Quilford was pretty sure Empking was scum - maybe this was why Crazy (as Empking's buddy) took the first possible opportunity to hammer Quilford?
7. Empking dropping his suspicion of Tar completely (until called out on it) between D5 and D6. Points towards changing his play as a result of scum QT discussion.
8. He's high on DGB's scumputer (for what it's worth)
9. His posts at the start of today, and his reaction to my proposal, and his crossvote with Crazy just now, all fit with the idea that they're buddies who've decided to bus each other today.
10. Not cross-voting me despite, from his point of view, me being confirmed scum if he's town (well, once Tar's checked in to rule out the chance of quickhammers))
11. The fact everyone suspected him at the start of today - it's more likely that he's scum and his buddy is distancing/bussing, than that he's town and two townies are both mistaken in their reads of him.
12. Asking permission to vote Crazy seems more like scum wanting to make sure everyone notices he wants to bus his partner (contrast with his voting straight away in possible lylo on D5)

Imag: Are you really saying that as town I'd have to go "OMG unvote me lol we in LyoL"? Sorry for presuming you had multiple brain cells.

I'm suggesting that either you think there's a chance I'm town and try to get me to unvote before you get lynched, or you think I'm sure-scum and should be voting me. Not caring about being voted makes it seem likely you're scum who already agreed to cross-bus your partner today.


Amrun, I really hope you reconsider your Empking-Tarhalindur scumteam read tomorrow if it's you, Crazy and Tarhalindur still alive. I feel very confident Crazy's Empking's buddy. Tarhalindur is a really long shot.

[Empking]

So your dozen reasons are
1. He changed his reads a couple of times. Guilty but its not a scumtell.
2. Because I presumed a question was rhetorical when it wasn't. Guilty but its not a scumtell.
3. I am smart enough to realize that a 15 player PJ game will not have a four (or more than a 1/4 of the total players) man scumteam. Guilty but not a scumtell.
4. I'm third(?) on the scumputer. Out of five. Ooooookay.
5. Not voting Imaginality despite in the future he'll be confirmed scum from my POV. The confidence in Tar-town is rather extreme.

[Amrun]

Waiting for Tar to check in.

Whomever dies yonight will be telling, assuming there is a tonight.

[imaginality]

You forgot the slacking off when not under pressure, the links with kunkstar, Quilford's suspicions of you, your obv-bussing Crazy at the start of today, the fact everyone suspects you, and way you asked permission to vote Crazy. But to comment on your points:

1. It's not the fact you changed your reads, it's the context of them and lack of justification for them
2. You still ignored Quilford's question even when he re-posted it (making it clear it wasn't rhetorical)
3. If you were that sure it wasn't lylo, why didn't you say so and explain why, instead of just unvoting to avoid Tarhalindur's wrath?
4. Second. (probably first now, given Amrun wasn't on the DGB or Quilford lynches.
5. My point is that your non-act of not voting me, not trying to persuade me to change my mind, doesn't fit with town-Empking thinking I'm town, or with town-Empking thinking I'm scum.


P-edit: True.

[Empking]

You forgot the slacking off when not under pressure

I thought it was slacking off after D1?

the links with kunkstar,

The links with Kunkstar that you pointed out were deliberate lies from DGB in order to get herself lynched. Are you seriously using stuff fabricated by someone as part of your case?

Quilford's suspicions of you,

This is the worst appeal to authority I've ever seen (its terribleness comes from the fact that the authority was so scummy they just got lynched.)

your obv-bussing Crazy at the start of today,

If I obv-bussed surely it'd be better to get me lynched first?

the fact everyone suspects you,

So I'm scummy based on being scummy. Yay!

and way you asked permission to vote Crazy.

That was part of the LyoL thing.

P-edit: True.

Why is it true?

Amrun: Everyone thinks you're town (and I know it). I was (I believe) the first to call you town (and I didn't just throw around town reads). This shows that I was (at the very least) townhunting. Do you think I can do that so well as that as scum?

[imaginality]

You forgot the slacking off when not under pressure

I thought it was slacking off after D1?

D1 you're under pressure to make a good impression or at least, not attract suspicion. D2-D4 you rode that, until when DGB started going after you in D4. Since then you've been a bit more active just because it's been lylo or thereabouts and you can't get away with doing nothing.

The links with Kunkstar that you pointed out were deliberate lies from DGB in order to get herself lynched. Are you seriously using stuff fabricated by someone as part of your case?

Er, what? She made up the posts she quoted about you on kunkstar and vice versa? No she didn't. All those kunkstar posts she quoted in the post I linked to, he actually said. I just checked.

Quilford's suspicions of you,

This is the worst appeal to authority I've ever seen (its terribleness comes from the fact that the authority was so scummy they just got lynched.)

Fair enough, this is less of a point against you individually and more a point about why you-Crazy as a team makes sense.

your obv-bussing Crazy at the start of today,

If I obv-bussed surely it'd be better to get me lynched first?

Er. I am trying to get you lynched.

the fact everyone suspects you,

So I'm scummy based on being scummy. Yay!

Well, yep - the chances of two townies (and me) all being wrong about you seem lower than the chance we're right and your buddy's bussing you. By itself this wouldn't be enough, sure, but combined with other reasons, it does give me more confidence in my scumread on you, yes.

and way you asked permission to vote Crazy.

That was part of the LyoL thing.

Okay, on reflection, I might have been too quick to see that as scummy rather than null.

Amrun: Everyone thinks you're town (and I know it). I was (I believe) the first to call you town (and I didn't just throw around town reads). This shows that I was (at the very least) townhunting. Do you think I can do that so well as that as scum?

I'm confused by this. Are you saying you're better at finding town-reads as town, than as scum,

when you know who all the townies are

?

[Empking]

Er. I am trying to get you lynched.

I read that bit multiple times. I knew I got something wrong.

I don't want to quote war so:
The To bit (of DGB) was definite bull with stuff like "No kunkstar vote. Ever." I'll check the from part.

I'm confused by this. Are you saying you're better at finding town-reads as town, than as scum, when you know who all the townies are?

Yes. As scum players like Quilford are just as town as people like Amrun. Finding out which players are giving town vibes can only be done by me-scum by looking at other player's reads. I can't tell town-vibes when I already know who all the townies are.