Toy Story Mafia (Day 9)

[farside22]

Random percentages less than 100 = luck because they require a certain degree of luck in order to succeed.

What are you talking about?

If they only had a 66% of succeeding they will need luck in order to get that kill. Why are you confused and getting hung up on a minor point anyway?

Because you don't believe the claim, while at the same time asking about the neighborhood. You either believe Rainbow and NtW's claim or you don't. How do you get 66% chance of success? Are you talking about per person? Then explain if that is what it is about what Rainbow stated about the neighbors agreeing to one person during the night. That then increases the odd's to the player being targeted 95%. (5 being RB, JK or doctor role that targets one of those people).
Also whom do you think killed glow if you believe that Rainbow or NtW was stopped?

[Oversoul]

Random percentages less than 100 = luck because they require a certain degree of luck in order to succeed.

What are you talking about?

If they only had a 66% of succeeding they will need luck in order to get that kill. Why are you confused and getting hung up on a minor point anyway?

Because you don't believe the claim, while at the same time asking about the neighborhood. You either believe Rainbow and NtW's claim or you don't. How do you get 66% chance of success? Are you talking about per person? Then explain if that is what it is about what Rainbow stated about the neighbors agreeing to one person during the night. That then increases the odd's to the player being targeted 95%. (5 being RB, JK or doctor role that targets one of those people).
Also whom do you think killed glow if you believe that Rainbow or NtW was stopped?

Someone that wasn't interested in Glow otherwise it would attract interest to them incase they are multiple shot. Glow doesn't seem like a mafia kill imo as she was already suspicious, but I am guessing.

Rainbow said that each member of the masonry gets a 1/3 and if Rainbow and the other member both targeted NtW, that would be 66% of success. Another thing I am not buying out of the claim is... who actually submits the kill? Is it 1/3 individually per person? Or do the percentages combine for a higher rate of success? I am not counting any extraneous factors such as roleblocks because a role doesn't account for other roles in the game. Either way, I want to direct their vig shot now that they outted themselves.

Farside, I don't understand your paranoia about me trying to figure out their role. I don't believe it, but I am willing to if they can give acceptable answers to my questions.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, do you and your other neighbor make up for the lost percentage with a Nanook death? I don't see why you would want to kill a vi neighborhood member if you can direct his shot and threaten with a claim. I would rather a controlled town vig option than a weakened, gonna be dead soon neighborhood. Your claim unprovoked is weird as hell too given the strength of the claim. O_o

If one of us dies then the other two both have a 50% chance of the kill going through us. It technically would increase the chance of it getting blocked, but if I think he is scum, which I constantly am going back and forth on here, there is a 33% chance of a rouge shot if he ever feels like it

I wanted to claim today because we know that all anti-town kills were stopped night one and I was thinking NtW was town due to the lack of kill. I said it was something everypony needed to know, other neighbor didn't, NtW said nothing again, so I just claimed it.

@Spy - Why is neighbor copping bad? I actually like the idea the more I think about it. Scare scum into getting rid of us or catch scum clearing the rest of us.

@Oversoul - It goes like this

1) We have daytalk
2) If we accomplish the day goal, we can use the claw. If we don't, we don't get to use the claw.
3) Each of us sumbit a kill, we must kill, no killing is not an option and causes a random target.
4) The mod chooses one of us at random to do the kill, we do not know who gets chosen.

Given that, most probable result from last night was I got picked to do the kill, and was JKed.

[farside22]

Farside, I don't understand your paranoia about me trying to figure out their role. I don't believe it, but I am willing to if they can give acceptable answers to my questions.

Frankly it's because you refer to it as a neighborhood. So you think the person that claimed Buster on day 2 was a vig kill and you think NtW and Rainbow tied each other together and if one gets lynched and flipped scum without being neighbor they would allow?
Another thing that bothers me is your basing your scum read on a claim between two people that claimed and have said anything about either of them or what you read this game thus far? Have you read the game?

Finally your still using % and outguessing the mod. I told you what I did as a mod, do you think outguessing the mod really = scum hunting?

[Blonde Doctor]

Blonde Doctor, are you finished with your catch up?

OOPS Quote mine

I mean, I've been giving thoughts about the things I've read...is that what you mean? These large games go faster than what I'm used to reading...

Rainbow's claim seems legit to me but as others have said I expect at least 1 scum in there. Not sure who it is yet but expect at least 1 and maybe two

if we do have a dual scum group.

What's a dual scum group? Aren't we just finding one?

Flavor's claimm just obliterated my semi-scummy read on her. I never really believed woody would be a one shot vig and that's it. The joat claim makes a lot of sense and fits the character much better.

I agree with this. I thought Flavor was the cop at first, so I always thought he was town, and there wouldn't be a scum JOAT, right? That would be really powerful I think.

Hiraki said something funny in regards to Umbrage. It sounded like he was trying to defend her and sluff her actions off on being a VI instead of them being scummy, while still allowing for the possibility of being on her wagon by calling it a "policy lynch."

Finger of Supicion: DeathNote

Rainbow...why is the town not as concerned with finding a serial killer? Also, what's a stalling tactic?

@Farside...have I dropped an empty vote? Or did I misread something...

Preview Edit:
I think if there's an opportunity to clear neighbors with each other, they should. That would be like masons, and pretty powerful for town.

[jmurph3]

@Blonde Doctor: Firstly, can you get an avatar? It's distracting that you don't have one. Secondly, I think part of FA's frustration, as I share it, is that it seems to be taking you an awful lot of time to catch up on things, and that in the meantime, you keep missing a whole bunch of important stuff going on. I'm not saying that you should just skip what's already happened, but it does get to a point where you have to realize what's important and what isn't, and skip over some of the decidedly less important stuff. Especially since we're waiting on your reads at this point, and thus far you haven't contributed anything.

In other news, oh boy, fun times with the claim game. I believe both claims, but I'd kind of like to know who the third alien is. After all, if one of the three is assumedly scum, it'd be nice to be able to gauge our guess of who is said scum based on full disclosure rather than partial disclosure. It might also, you know, help convince us (nor not) of the claim itself. That's just my opinion though, and it's open to debate or interpretation.

[SpyreX]

@Spy - Why is neighbor copping bad? I actually like the idea the more I think about it. Scare scum into getting rid of us or catch scum clearing the rest of us.

Frankly, because there is a signed death warrant now on your brethren. The chances of it being TWO scum in there are minimal with all the other hijinks going on. So, since we know that your group will have to go the way of the dodo I'd much rather use that cop to hunt down the scum in the four or five hundred lurkers we have around because THOSE are far, far too many to deal with with simple bullets and ropes.

I'm seriously, on day 3, with 20 alive, thinking of a massclaim but probably one more day.

Watch me though and make sure I'm not taken in but good lord Blonde Doctor oozes town from that last post.

[petroleumjelly]

NanooktheWolf:

1.)

Please explain why you chose to kill bobsnox on Night Two. I'm not quite seeing the reasoning in your latest post.

2.)

You just claimed that you see both of your alien partners as being scum at the moment, and then you vote TheJakalope. Assuming TheJakalope is not the third alien, why did you choose to vote TheJakalope "for pressure" over two people you "see as scum"?

[farside22]

@Farside...have I dropped an empty vote? Or did I misread something..

I don't recall saying anything to you. Are you sure it's me that asked about a vote?
Also there was more then one person that called Umbrage a VI.

@SpyreX: I wouldn't say ooze I feel he's lost.

meh I thought about this and I might as well claim. I'm the other alien neighbor. It's why I argued with people's thought process and calling the claim fake.

I'm alien #2. My reason's for finding NtW more scummy came from the QT. He didn't chat during pregame. He claims to be busy and didn't know the game had day talk. I was also the person whom believed all of us needed to come to a consensus and discuss our scum reads in case there was scum in the neighborhood. NtW night 1 had Bobz, FA and glow as scum suspects and I tried to get him to explain his reasoning and he never did. Many questions got ignored and when I called him out he walks out of the QT which heightened my scum read more.
Rainbow and myself discuss at length our views about the players in the game and how we read people. That is why I see her as town. She was all for shooting Umbrage night 1 and just wanted the town to come together to be a unity.

Also as I said to Oversoul. If all neighbors put the same name in as a target the chances of that target being vigged is nearly 100% the person who does the kill is 1 out of 3. We don't know whom gets picked as the person doing the vig ability or whom the claw picks.

I still find NtW scummy, but Jak's vote and jmurph jumping on a BW that they never really comment much about yesterday it sets my scumdar on high alert. Jak's still floating by and not explaining his reason's well.

[NanookTheWolf]

1.) Please explain why you chose to kill bobsnox on Night Two. I'm not quite seeing the reasoning in your latest post.

2.) You just claimed that you see both of your alien partners as being scum at the moment, and then you vote TheJakalope. Assuming TheJakalope is not the third alien, why did you choose to vote TheJakalope "for pressure" over two people you "see as scum"?

1. I chose Bobsnox because I wanted to target someone that I found suspicious and I wasn't going to help the neighborhood by targeting myself. I pretty much knew from observation of day talk that that is how they were leaning. Also, Bobs hint at being Buzz lightyear just made me feel more that he could either be scum or vig.

2.

If one of the others is scum out of my group, then I couldn't tell you which one I suspect more as I see both of them as scum right now to be completely honest

The above should read as:

If one of the others is scum out of my group, then I couldn't tell you which one I suspect more as I don't see both of them as scum right now to be completely honest. I don't know how I forgot the don't part, ... I'm horrible with sentence construction.

So yeah, both Farside and Rainbow probably have a good case against me. If I were in their shoes I'd feel the same ... My only defense is that returning after 2 years and jumping right back into 4 games apparently was stupid. That's really all I've got on that. If my neighbors choose me tonight, then I will most likely join them.

[bobsnox]

Also, Bobs hint at being Buzz lightyear just made me feel more that he could either be scum or vig.

I could be scum

or a town PR

so let's just shoot me to find out?

VOTE: Nanook

[Scott Brosius]

This VC possibly going to be wrong given the scary earthquake happened while I was doing it

Vote Count 3-4

bobsnox

(1)- petroleumjelly,

Blonde Doctor

(1)- Rainbowdash,

chkflip

(1)- inHimshallibe,

DeathNote

(0)-

diddin

(0)-

farside22

(0)-

Flavour Analysis

(0)-

inHimshallibe

(0)-

jmurph3

(1)- diddin,

Juls

(0)-

mikehart

(0)-

NanookTheWolf

(3)- SpyreX, TheJakalope, bobsnox,

Oversoul

(1)- chkflip,

PeregrineV

(0)-

petroleumjelly

(0)-

Rainbowdash

(0)-

Ray Montano

(0)-

SpyreX

(0)-

TheJakalope

(5)- Flavour Analysis, farside22, Ray Montano, PeregrineV, NanookTheWolf,


Not Voting (5)- Blonde Doctor, DeathNote, mikehart, Oversoul, Juls, jmurph3,

With 19 alive, it's 10 to a lynch.

Deadline is September 10th at 3pm EST.




[/b]

[NanookTheWolf]

Also, Bobs hint at being Buzz lightyear just made me feel more that he could either be scum or vig.

I could be scum

or a town PR

so let's just shoot me to find out?

VOTE: Nanook

Yeah, I stand by my statement.

[bobsnox]

because killing softclaimed town PRs is a good idea. obviously I wasn't softclaiming SCUM and obviously I was softclaiming BUZZ LIGHTYEAR. so yeah let's just take a shot and see what happens to buzz. definitely the best kill you could have chosen out of everyone in this game.

die scum

[NanookTheWolf]

Still doesn't change anything from my standpoint ... funny how you suddenly have time to talk.

[diddin]

Oh fuck. On one hand, there's probably scum in the Alien group, on the other hand, they're all townreads. But Nanook is the weakest townread of the three, so

Unvote, Vote: Nanook

[PeregrineV]

Oh fuck. On one hand, there's probably scum in the Alien group, on the other hand, they're all townreads. But Nanook is the weakest townread of the three, so

Unvote, Vote: Nanook

Why not Jakalope?

[diddin]

Oh fuck. On one hand, there's probably scum in the Alien group, on the other hand, they're all townreads. But Nanook is the weakest townread of the three, so

Unvote, Vote: Nanook

Why not Jakalope?

Role stuff tells me there's likely a scum neighbor.

Farside is a strong townread, RD a bit less so. Therefore, Nanook's the way to go.

[TheJakalope]

Oh fuck. On one hand, there's probably scum in the Alien group, on the other hand, they're all townreads. But Nanook is the weakest townread of the three, so

Unvote, Vote: Nanook

Why not Jakalope?

Because I'm town.

Also, I don't know why I didn't feel comfortable putting a vote on Nanook yesterday, but I did feel comfortable today.

Hmm.. I'm not sure how good I feel about it now that he is supposedly in this Neighborhood with Rainbow.

@Rainbow, I don't want you to reveal who the 3rd alien is, but do you have a strong town read on them? If not, what is your read?

bobsnox is town.

[PeregrineV]

Oh fuck. On one hand, there's probably scum in the Alien group, on the other hand, they're all townreads. But Nanook is the weakest townread of the three, so

Unvote, Vote: Nanook

Why not Jakalope?

Because I'm town.

Also, I don't know why I didn't feel comfortable putting a vote on Nanook yesterday, but I did feel comfortable today.

Hmm.. I'm not sure how good I feel about it now that he is supposedly in this Neighborhood with Rainbow.

@Rainbow, I don't want you to reveal who the 3rd alien is, but do you have a strong town read on them? If not, what is your read?

bobsnox is town.

Hmmmm.

Also, 3rd alien has revealed themselves already.

[Blonde Doctor]

@Farside...have I dropped an empty vote? Or did I misread something..

I don't recall saying anything to you. Are you sure it's me that asked about a vote?
Also there was more then one person that called Umbrage a VI.

Gragh. I was trying to figure out who that was in my reread, but I can't find it anymore.

meh I thought about this and I might as well claim. I'm the other alien neighbor. It's why I argued with people's thought process and calling the claim fake.

I'm alien #2. My reason's for finding NtW more scummy came from the QT. He didn't chat during pregame. He claims to be busy and didn't know the game had day talk. I was also the person whom believed all of us needed to come to a consensus and discuss our scum reads in case there was scum in the neighborhood. NtW night 1 had Bobz, FA and glow as scum suspects and I tried to get him to explain his reasoning and he never did. Many questions got ignored and when I called him out he walks out of the QT which heightened my scum read more.
Rainbow and myself discuss at length our views about the players in the game and how we read people. That is why I see her as town. She was all for shooting Umbrage night 1 and just wanted the town to come together to be a unity.

Also as I said to Oversoul. If all neighbors put the same name in as a target the chances of that target being vigged is nearly 100% the person who does the kill is 1 out of 3. We don't know whom gets picked as the person doing the vig ability or whom the claw picks.

THAT'S SUCH A COOL DYNAMIC.
/nerd alert
Ok, so I believe you on this. It also really surprises me that Nanook says:

So yeah, both Farside and Rainbow probably have a good case against me. If I were in their shoes I'd feel the same ...

My only defense is that returning after 2 years and jumping right back into 4 games apparently was stupid. That's really all I've got on that. If my neighbors choose me tonight, then I will most likely join them.

because how can you admit that someone has a good case on you. It's like you're giving up? I also agree with bobsnox...if you think there's the possibility of "so and so" being a town PR or scum...why the rash decision to accept more of a possibility of them being scum? Surely, the pros of waiting to find out, potentially keeping a town PR alive, far outweigh the cons of not bothering to wait and hoping you hit scum...
I also think that you could've replaced out if you didn't think you could handle that many games...

@jmurph...I'm sorry I don't have an avatar yet...I'm not really sure how...?

Preview Edit:
@Jakalope...did you miss the third claim? It very much explains a lot of the case on Nanook (at least to me). Also, did your read on Nanook change? Or...I don't understand what would've changed other than flips...

[PeregrineV]

@Blonde- http://mafiascum.net/forum/ucp.php?i=pr ... ode=avatar

[TheJakalope]

God, this game moves fast. Mind quoting where the third reveal was?

Thanks, still want Rainbow's read on them.

[chkflip]

UNVOTE: Oversoul
VOTE: NanookTheWolf

I'm actually not going to be able to produce said case soon enough to get anything productive about it because uni is playing with my grant money and aren't allowing it to me to buy books, so I'm going to be a little more in and out of the thread for the next week or so until I can get this sorted. I fully agree with a lot of the points on Nanook and apologize for being so wishy-washy as of late. I can answer any question brought to me and will get to the points brought to me previously as soon as I can. Sorry guys.

[Blonde Doctor]

@Jakelope...it was [url=http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p3368887]farside22/url].