Double-Dip Mafia, Game Over

[Amrun]

Unfortunately technology dictates I be v/la.

Will try to give this game highest priority.

[petroleumjelly]

Day Six Vote Count #2

~ Nobody Voting ~

With

5

alive, it takes

3

to lynch. Deadline is August 27 at 5:00 PM PDT.

Not Voting - 5 - Amrun, Crazy, Empking, imaginality, Tarhalindur

Mod Note

: Tarhalindur has been prodded.

[Tarhalindur]

Apologies for delay, I was slammed with zero access on Wednesday.

Expect a post later tonight.

[Tarhalindur]

Yeah, not ready to lay a vote down yet, let alone end the day. This needs addressing:

Here's something I've noticed about how we stand at the moment.

Amrun wants to vote Empking or Tarhalindur.
Crazy thinks Empking and I are scumbuddies.
I think Crazy-Empking is likeliest.
Tarhalindur also thinks it's Crazy-Empking.

Everyone (except Empking) has Empking among their top two suspects.

This means either Empking is town and two townies are wrong in their suspicions of him, or he's scum and someone is distancing from him.

If Empking's town

, what would that mean? Based on current suspicions:

For me Amrun-Tarhalindur or Crazy-Tarhalindur are the next most likely pairings (I think Crazy-scum makes sense with Empking, or possibly Tarhalindur, but not with Amrun).
Amrun based on 1631 says me - Tarhalindur is the next most likely pairing.
Crazy based on 1638 (where he rules out Amrun - Tarhalindur and Amrun - me) says me - Tarhalindur is next most likely pairing, as well.
Empking suspects Crazy and Tarhalindur.
Tarhalindur's second choice pairing is Amrun-Crazy.

So,

if Empking's town, everyone except Tarhalindur suspects Tarhalindur.

As above, for us to be wrong about Tarhalindur, it would take two townies to be wrong.

So what?

Well, to me this suggests,

it could be good for us to make Empking and Tarhalindur cross-vote

.*

Then, if neither gets quicklynched, we've proven one of them must be scum. That then improves our lynch choice - we can choose from just two players, of whom one is

definitely

scum, and possibly both are.
What are the risks of a quicklynch? Well, we can only get quicklynched if they're

both town

- which can only be the case if two townies are wrong about Empking-scum, and two townies are wrong about Empking-town implying Tarhalindur-scum. To me, that seems like a reasonable level of confidence for a lylo situation.


*Maybe it's a bit early to propose this, since our suspicions can still change, obviously. But anyhow, I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts about this plan.

There are two problems with this plan:
- If myself and Empking are both town, this plan loses the game for town.
- It cheats us out of a lynch of all-but-confirmed scum (Crazy) today.

I find it difficult to believe that you'd miss BOTH of these problems, especially considering your stated belief that Crazy is scum (with Empking). I consider it FAR more likely that for you these are features instead of problems - that is to say, that you aren't town and know that you're setting up two townies to vote each other.

Consider my town read on you SHOT, and now I need to check whether an imag-Crazy scumteam makes sense.

[Crazy]

Tar, would you lynch imag today?

[Crazy]

Option 1:

Tar is town.
-Imag/Amrun is not a likely pair.
-The only likely pairs are Empking/imag or Empking/Amrun.

Option 2:

Tar is scum with imag.
-Tar is worried that Empking vs. Tar will lead to his own lynch.
-Tar attacks imag's plan for distancing points, and uses it to try to convince Empking to lynch me.

Option 3:

Tar is scum with Empking.
-Empking had a plan to bus Tar (or get bussed by Tar) and then mislynch me on Day 7.
-Tar didn't like this plan and is now trying scare tactics on imag to try to get him to lynch me.

***

One thing against Empking/Tar is that they don't seem to be working in unison... Empking was ready to vote Tar but then Tar argued against that.
Also, imag's weird plan for Empking/Tar to cross-vote makes more sense if he was Tar's partner rather than Empking's.

Empking/Amrun is something I haven't looked closely enough into. But right now I'm leaning imag/Tar (with a slight preference for imag's lynch), unless if I find something there.

[Crazy]

Can I hear that from other people - what they think the most likely scumpairs are?

[imaginality]

There are two problems with this plan:
- If myself and Empking are both town, this plan loses the game for town.
- It cheats us out of a lynch of all-but-confirmed scum (Crazy) today.

I find it difficult to believe that you'd miss BOTH of these problems, especially considering your stated belief that Crazy is scum (with Empking). I consider it FAR more likely that for you these are features instead of problems - that is to say, that you aren't town and know that you're setting up two townies to vote each other.

- The first isn't a problem for

me

- I explicitly said I don't consider it a possibility that you're both town, and explicitly said for those who do, it's a good reason to oppose the plan. I get that you feel the plan doesn't make sense from your point of view. Fine, we can ditch it, if we want unanimity. Sure, there'd be scum motive for me to propose this, if I were scum with Amrun or Crazy. But there's

also town motive for me to propose this as town

, because

from my point of view

the plan makes sense.

- I feel

fairly

confident Crazy's scum but at this stage in the game self-doubt (I've been wrong about DGB and Quilford) and wifom (some of us are alive because the scum aren't threatened by our reads, which makes me second-guess myself about Crazy) creep in. In contrast, I like the certainty of feeling I

know for sure

there's scum between you and Empking and wanting to confirm that and choose right between two, rather than four.

Again, though, I've said I'm

in favour

of a Crazy lynch if people prefer that to this plan. As I made clear, this was

only an option raised for discussion

, not an "If you disagree with this you're scum!" attempt to force the rest of you into doing what I want.

[Crazy]

How is it that I'm obvscum again? Because I hammered the person that was my top suspect for the last 18 years?

Obviously I'm not obvscum or I'd be lynched already.

[imaginality]

Since when did I call you obvscum?

[imaginality]

Oh, wait, you're probably referring to Tar's post. Never mind.

[imaginality]

My thoughts on how people responded to my idea:

Amrun

's reaction seemed very town - wary of my motives for proposing the idea, but taking time to consider it rather than dismiss it out of hand. I feel pretty good about her being town.

@Amrun

(when you return/get the chance to post): You said earlier: "I'm not ready to vote. I need a couple of days to review some things." What were you reviewing? What did you find out?

Also, left over from yesterday: @Amrun: summarise your case on Tar please. In iso 82 you said "Also I think the only thing that can save tar from being scum is possibly quil being scum." I'm keen to hear what you thought's been scummiest about Tar's play up to then (or since).

Crazy

's initial reaction read okay. Perhaps a bit quick to see if he can turn it into a wagon on me, but otherwise within a normal range of suspicion. Less townie than Amrun though since my gut feel of his post is he seemed less interested in genuinely reading my motives, more just taking the opportunity to call me scummy. His second comment on it where he fence-sits on Empking vs Tar (at a point where it looked a reasonable possibility the cross-voting plan might happen) seems quite a bit like it could come from scum though. Hoping that a townie will vote his partner to save him from doing so, but wanting to bus his partner if he has to, so being non-commital at the moment.

Empking

's shrugging agreement to my plan seemed scummy, mainly because it was so unquestioning, especially considering he'd be part of the cross-vote (so from his point of view it would only work if Tar is definitely scum). That unquestioning acceptance seems unlikely to come from town, but likelier to come from scum who've already agreed to cross-bus each other today. That points to Crazy-Empking, just as their first few posts of the day did. Empking-Tar is a slight chance but I see fewer links between the two of them.

@Empking

: you seem pretty sure about Tar being scum - why? Are there particular posts or acts you can point to for why you think he's scum?

Also, why did you drop your belief in the masons' vouching for Tar-town so completely? I think I know why, but want to hear it from you.

Tarhalindur

's sharp reaction made me wary - partly the degree of resistance, considering he said earlier today how sure he was of Empking being Crazy's 'only logical partner', and partly I felt he misrepresented me slightly by not taking into account how the plan looked from my point of view. I was tempted to omgus-call him scum yesterday, but re-reading him today, I think his wariness could be town too.

---

My current thoughts on the possible scumpairings:

Strong chance:
Crazy-Empking

Slight chance (in order from most to least):
Crazy-Tarhalindur
Empking-Tarhalindur
Amrun-Tarhalindur

No chance:
Amrun-Crazy
Amrun-Empking

[Amrun]

To be honest, I have not done the reviewing I want to do. I've been plagued with fairly crippling technology issues.

But I really want to re-read each player at least, and maybe even read everything in context again. I fear I've become a little out of touch with this game and I want to be more sure of myself.

These things are still on my to-do list. :/

It is unlikely I will be voting imaginality today.

[Empking]

Also, why did you drop your belief in the masons' vouching for Tar-town so completely? I think I know why, but want to hear it from you.

I thought it was role Info. My thoughts on Tar are basically: Its not me, doubt its Amrun, don't think its you ergo Tar.

[Empking]

Can I just vote Crazy, now?

[Crazy]

I thought your top 2 were me/Tar and imag/Tar?

[Empking]

I thought your top 2 were me/Tar and imag/Tar?

Tar's recent posting puts you and Imag back in 2nd place.

I've decided to not bother with LyoL posting that much (since scum are trying to look town) but focus on the earlier days. In that case you take first place.

[Crazy]

Tar's recent posting

puts you and Imag back in 2nd place.

I've decided to

not bother with LyoL posting that much

(since scum are trying to look town) but focus on the earlier days. In that case you take first place.'ve decided to not bother with LyoL posting that much (since scum are trying to look town) but focus on the earlier days. In that case you take first place.

[Empking]

Tar's recent posting putting you back in second post is what made me not bother with it. I realized that I'd have a town read on whomever posted last.

[Crazy]

So... why me again? Is it just the quickhammer?

[Empking]

So... why me again? Is it just the quickhammer?

That'sd a large part of it.

[Crazy]

Yeah... that's the thing, both you and Tar seem to have jumped to the conclusion that quickhammering = auto-scum, yet neither of you have come with any valid reasons for why scum would actually be

likely

to do that. Your only argument is "town don't do that 'cuz they don't."

[Empking]

Yeah... that's the thing, both you and Tar seem to have jumped to the conclusion that quickhammering = auto-scum, yet neither of you have come with any valid reasons for why scum would actually be

likely

to do that. Your only argument is "town don't do that 'cuz they don't."

Quickhammering is anti-town. It is also a purposeful anti-town action. The only players who do that are scum who think 6they can get away with it.

[Crazy]

It's not anti-town if the person hammered is scum. And I thought Quilford was scum, and I didn't want anyone else lynched except for Quilford. So I wanted to hammer him before anyone else changed their minds. Stalling the hammer for three days or so wouldn't have accomplished anything, would it?

[Amrun]

If your top two scumpairs are crazy/tar and imag/tar, why would you want to vote for crazy, empking?