Double-Dip Mafia, Game Over

[imaginality]

@Amrun:

You-Tar as a pairing is purely PoE (from my point of view) if Empking's not scum. I don't think Crazy-you is a possible pairing, so it's either Crazy-Tar or you-Tar. I'd put Crazy-Tar ahead of you, but the reason I consider you-Tar possible is I have a sneaking concern that you didn't really push his slot as hard as you could have (voting and unvoting him D2, and letting me vs DGB hog the attention on D4 rather than pushing hard for a Tar lynch).


In essence the plan i suggested is just proposing this:

*we select a cross-voting pair, and
*the pair we select to cross-vote should be the ones we mutually agree have the best possible chance of

at least one of them being scum

.

For me personally, the two players I find scummiest as individuals are Crazy and Empking, and I think they're the most likely scum-pairing. If I'm thinking just in terms of my own vote, then I'd vote Crazy now.

But, I'd prefer if Tarhalindur and Empking cross-voted first, because

all the pairings I think are possible

have either Tarhalindur or Empking in them. It would just be nice to get that extra bit of confirmation that we

definitely

have scum amongst them (when no quick-lynch occurs), and then the remaining three of us can just vote the scummier of the two of them.

I thought Crazy and you would both agree with me that the scumpairings we each individually think possible all have Tarhalindur or Empking amongst them. (In your case because you called Crazy town, so if Empking's town, it's me-Tar scum; in Crazy's case because he believes you're only scum with Empking, so if Empking's town, it's me-Tar scum; in my case because I don't think you-Crazy is possible, so if Empking's town, it's Crazy-Tar or you-Tar scum).


But yes, if you are suspecting Crazy more now than before, then that opens up more possible pairings (like Crazy-me) from your perspective, so then this proposal loses its logic for you.

[Amrun]

Besides the shitty quickhammer and the long-forgotten defense of kunkstar, I'm still stuck at "why scott brosius over me."

The only differences between us are that I professed a scumread on Tar and a townread on Crazy.

The reason for the kill is in these two - but which one?

[imaginality]

Why not both? (Tar town, Crazy scum)

You and Tar both had townreads on Scott, but were going at each other hard. Crazy-Empking scum might have figured you're more likely to mislynch each other than Scott. I think Tar's theory in 1642 about scum planning to set up a you vs Tar vs (whichever of Crazy and Empking doesn't get lynched) endgame makes sense, and fits with Crazy and Empking bussing each other today.

[Amrun]

Is today not lylo?

[imaginality]

Sure, and we might mislynch and lose today. But, going with Tar's theory here, if we lynch right today (and if the scumteam is Crazy-Empking) then assuming they kill me tonight, a you-Tar-Empking/Crazy lylo tomorrow gives them more chance of winning than Scott-Tar-Emking/Crazy does.

Even today, I think I was the only one who might have mis-voted Scott. Scott seemed to pick out Empking and Crazy in his readthrough, and would probably have voted one of them over you or Tar or me. So them NKing you instead of Scott would give up two possible mis-votes (you on Tar and Tar on you) for the sake of one (me on Scott).

[Empking]

Tar's "theory" was just a way to help him if we lynched Crazy today.

[Amrun]

Empking, what do you think about cross-voting then?

Tar?

[Crazy]

I would like to mention that Crazy went from quickhammerring to (in part) protect me from getting lynched to declaring me scum. That isn't simply reacting to new circumstances but evidence of an evil plan.

Protecting you had nothing to do with it at all...

Why do you have a town read on imag? Is an imag/Tar pairing impossible for you to believe?

@Crazy: What do you mean by "Amrun is town barring some weird gambit where she's bussing Empking. If she was scum with Tar or imag, then she would have assisted Empking in lynching me and won" - are you talking about today? (If so, I think it's a bit weak to say she's town just for not auto-leaping on your wagon straightaway. I lean town on her anyhow but not for that reason.)

If a townie wants to lynch another townie in LYLO, that's hardly something scum would discourage. But if you agree with Amrun-town, then this isn't something we should waste our time arguing about.

Why are you concerned with getting Empking and Tar to cross-vote instead of just fighting for a specific person to get lynched? I can't really

oppose

the idea of Empking and Tar cross-voting, since I'm about 95% sure at least one of them

has

to be scum, but the way you suggested it was so convoluted and awkward that I have to suspect that you're trying to pull something off. My most logical guess is that you're scum with Tar and you're trying to create a mislynch on Empking since you'd "know" that I'd vote Empking if it came down to Empking vs. Tar. Then you'd win. That would also fit in with Tar's abrupt switch regarding his read on you as soon as your wagon gained speed.

Honestly, I wish I could vote

you

, but I don't think that's possible.

@Amrun/Empking

- Any chance you'd vote imag today?

@Tar - Why does my quickhammer "confirm" me as scum? Did you read the exchange I had with Empking today?

[Amrun]

Yes, there's a chance.

[imaginality]

Why are you concerned with getting Empking and Tar to cross-vote instead of just fighting for a specific person to get lynched? I can't really oppose the idea of Empking and Tar cross-voting, since I'm about 95% sure at least one of them has to be scum, but the way you suggested it was so convoluted and awkward that I have to suspect that you're trying to pull something off.

I suggested Empking and Tar specifically because of what people's suspicions were when I proposed it - nothing subjective about that. If people agree with the idea in principle but our suspicions alter over the next few days, then we can re-examine what the pairing should be (e.g. it might be you and Tar, or Empking and me, or whatever). And it doesn't work if people believe any and all pairings are possible.

I'm not fixated on the idea - I mean, I like it and raised it because it would confirm we definitely have scum amongst the pair, and it looked like the logic should make sense to all of us individually based on our own suspicions. I like that consensus element of it - the fact that it only fails if two of us (townies) are wrong about Empking-is-scum AND two of us are wrong about Tar-is-scum-if-Empking-town.

But I feel pretty good we've caught scum in you, anyhow, so if people don't like the plan then, eh. Lynching you is good.

[Empking]

Crazy: Offchance

Empking, what do you think about cross-voting then?

After Crazy's last post I suppose I'd vote Tar anyway so sure.

[Amrun]

Crazy's last post? What about it?

[Empking]

Crazy's last post? What about it?

He tried to lynch Imag.

[Amrun]

And? This gave you a town read or what?

[Empking]

And? This gave you a town read or what?

It lessened my scum read.

[Amrun]

TAR Y U NO POST

Mod, can we prod him?

[Crazy]

Tar is V/LA.

Empking, so does that mean you now think it's Tar/imaginality, or am I missing your logic?

[Empking]

Tar is V/LA.

Empking, so does that mean you now think it's Tar/imaginality, or am I missing your logic?

Tar Imagionality is now higher up than Imaginality/Crazy.

[petroleumjelly]

Mod Note

: Because Tarhalindur is V/LA until Wednesday, I do not think it is appropriate to prod him at the moment.

[Amrun]

I forgot. My b.

[imaginality]

I tried to take a look at posting rates in this game to compare people's scum posts-per-day with their town ones (doing that helped me firm up my scumread on Feysal in mylo in A Gentleman's Game).

I found Amrun's posting rate this game is lower than her average scum posting rate (which is significantly lower than her town rate - ~3 posts per day vs ~5 posts per day, with under 2 posts per day this game), but given she's had significant personal circumstances come up during this game, I'm hesitant to put any weight on that dip.

And Crazy, Empking and Tarhalindur, lazy sods that they are, don't have their games hyperlinked in their wikis, and I haven't had the time to go and find them yet. (Still want to, though.)


<goes back to waiting for Tarhalindur to return>

[imaginality]

(Correction: under 2.5 posts per day for Amrun in this game.)

My averages: 1.0 as town, 0.9 as scum, 1.6 this game.

[Crazy]

I haven't updated my wiki in a long time.

I'm sure my posting rate here is significantly lower than both my town and scum average, due to a combination of outside circumstances and just losing general interest in mafia. This will most likely be my last mafia game for a little while.

If Empking and Tar are going to cross-vote, that's fine, since the only realistic possibilities in my head involve at least one of them being scum (most likely with imag). I need to reread some more to figure which of Empking/Tar is more likely to be scum. My basic gut at this point is that Empking is a stronger individual scum read, but Tar/imag have more dubious associations.

[imaginality]

I forced myself to go digging for the other games. Sifting the results, I found a very minor townpoint for Tarhalindur.

<number-crunching begins>

Overall results:

Player - Number of games sampled - Town rate - Scum rate - This game rate (all rates are number of posts per RL day)
Amrun - 8 - 4.51 - 2.98 - 2.49
Crazy - 7 - 1.82 - 1.79 - 1.25
Empking - 9 - 1.72 - 1.71 - 2.73
imaginality - 11 - 1.03 - 0.92 - 1.64
Tarhalindur - 5 - 0.86 - 1.17 - 1.33

Crazy and Empking had little difference between town and scum posting rates, so this doesn't reveal anything about their alignment. I found fewer games to sample for Tar so his averages are less reliable. And Amrun has had outside circumstances. So, yeah... I'm not going to place much weight on this analysis reveals. But let's proceed.

Of the three players (Empking, imaginality, Tarhalindur) not significantly affected by outside issues during this game, we all have posting rates in this game well above average for us. That suggests this game encourages activity in general (contrast my analysis in A Gentleman's Game, where the posting rates were all lower than normal, due to having to write very formally).

We can adjust for this using Empking's figures, since his average posting rate is more-or-less independent of alignment. In this game, he's posted at ~1.59 * his average rate. If Tarhalindur and I discount our rates by that factor, to account for the all-round extra activity levels in this game, then that gives 1.03 for me, and 0.84 for Tarhalindur. Those adjusted posting rates for this game fit much better with our town levels than our scum levels.

To me, that's a small additonal townpoint for Tarhalindur (although because the limited sample size that his averages are based on, we can't have too much confidence in the result). If Tarhalindur was posting at 1.59 * his average scum rate, he'd be posting 1.86 posts per day in this game, not 1.33, and would have made 28 posts rather than 20.

<number-crunching ends>

[imaginality]

@Mod: Can we prod Tarhalindur now?

This game seems to have ground to a halt waiting for him.