NY135: Sexy Sedilla Semi-Open - Town Wins

[mastin2]

This will take a while. I do remember there was something in my initial impression which tipped the scales further. To something like 53/47, Oversoul/Zepher. (Might've been the "three in a row", and/or LLD's attitude, and/or something else I thought I saw but currently don't remember.)

But, well. I have a feeling, a horrible feeling, that no matter how hard I try, it's going to come down to one deciding factor:

Yosarian2 (8): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, SpyreX, Empking, MrZepher
Untrod Tripod (9): mastin2, MrZepher,
Empking (8): SpyreX, Oversoul, Lady Lambdadelta, Empking

Whether I decide it's more likely that all four scum were on Empking (which'd therefore mean zero on UT), or all four scum on Yosarian2. (Which'd also by proxy imply one scum on UT.)

Even if I can't figure anything useful from the VCA itself, I'm positive I can find more in the VCA to give me a nudge in the right direction for reading--give me a few pointers, a few tips for reading. You know, like Yosarian2/Kayne and see if I can guess why they died.

Five days until deadline. *breathes in deeply*

I can do this. I can pin it down. (It's not easy. I'm telling you, in this situation, with the information I have available, you'd most likely be having the same extreme difficulties I am.) One analysis of the VCA (I think that has to be one of the better laid-out VCAs I've ever done), one re-read, maybe some final ISOs to confirm things.

I'll figure it out. I promised myself, and I owe it to the town to get this right. It's my duty, my job, to not screw up right now.

Kunk, once more, I'd like to ask of you to please remain my effective anchor--keep me in "standard logic town", and don't let me drift into Mastin-Logic. (Also, stop me if you think I'm letting my impulsive instincts interfere with my reads; that's actually worse than me using unconventional logic. )

[mastin2]

D'oh.

There's one thing my VCA will not be able to accurately observe unless I make note of it.

By my count, we've had four replacements which're relevant to the situation:
LLD's slot, LLD's slot a second time, Empking's slot, and Zepher's slot.

Specifically, when looking at Empking's slot, I need to look for if his slot's voting habits changed upon him coming in, or if they overall remained the same. The former suggests that either the scum had no plan or Empking said "screw the plan". The latter implies that the scum DID have a plan, and that Empking kept to it when replacing in.

This is relevant, because if I see evidence of Empking's slot overall remaining the same, then I can apply that same technique for Zepher's slot: if the pattern changed, then Zepher is either town or scum who said "screw the plan". If it remains the same, it is strong evidence against Zepher.


Oh, and obviously, while the "scum plan" doesn't apply to LLD (not having access to the scum QT, obviously), I still need to observe how that slot's three players played differently. If I see them acting overall the same, or if I see them acting pretty much in completely opposite ways, it suggests the same thing. (In other words, at either extreme, I get a clear answer. If it's in the middle...eh, less so.) For instance, I noted that LLD's slot under at least one of its players was fond of bussing. If that trend stayed the same, then LLD's slot's votes become more important. If that trend were reversed, then it'd imply LLD's votes were on town.

If that trend remained...oh, somewhere in the middle......well, I can't think of any way to make that info actually useful. But still, this means I need to observe exactly where the four relevant replacements are.

[mastin2]

between isolation 14 (443) and isolation 18 (494) is where Sapo (LLD's slot) comes in. Between that and isolation 20 (610) is where Empking comes in.

Between isolation 23 (744) and islation 25 (772) is where Zepher comes in. Though, if I'm interpreting Reck's view on replacements correctly (their name isn't listed on the VC until they've posted--

am I correct, Mod?

), Zepher didn't start posting until just before isolation 27 (815).

Between isolation 46 (1179) and isolation 50 (1251) is where LLD comes in.

I'll do a quick cross-reference with my votecounts to see between what votecounts these are.

Between Votecounts 6 and 7-->Saporo (LLD's slot) replaces Mask.
Between Votecounts 7 and 8-->Empking replaces Quillford.
Between Votecounts 9 and 10-->Zepher replaces Swag. His name isn't displayed on votecounts until Votecount 12, though.
Between Votecounts 3-8/9 (23/4) and 3-10 (25)-->LLD comes in.

With these out of the way, I can observe properly any and all changes.

[mastin2]

Yosarian2 (1): Lady Lambdadelta

Mask did not bus.

Îdher (3): Oversoul, SpyreX, Untrod Tripod

As noted in one of my votecounts around here (believe it was VC2), the scum have no problem at this stage of the game voting together. This is evidence against Oversoul.

Yosarian2 (6): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, Untrod Tripod, Chair, SpyreX, Empking

As mentioned, SpyreX and Quillford/Empking obviously didn't have trouble voting next to each other. It figures that this applies to the previous votecount as well.

Yosarian2 (7): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, Untrod Tripod, Chair, SpyreX, Empking, MrZepher

This is the rival wagon to Empking, in that either this wagon contains all the scum, or the Empking wagon contains all the scum. If Swag/Zepher were scum, then that'd mean three scum voted back-to-back on the wagon. I find that a little hard to believe. But...

Yosarian2 (6): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, Untrod Tripod, Chair, Empking, MrZepher
Ethos (2): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest

SpyreX flees from the wagon once Swag/Zepher joins. This makes it a little more believable. (But still a stretch.)

Yosarian2 (6): mastin2, Empking, MrZepher, Magister Ludi, SpyreX, Yosarian2

And SpyreX is back on the wagon. Honestly, I'm not sure whether that implies he has no fear (Swag/Zepher is town), or if he thinks that by putting distance between the scum names, he'll look better. I'm kinda leaning towards the former, but I think that checking SpyreX's posts around this time will be of great help. Look for the tone in them--fear/panic suggest Zepher is scum. Calmness suggests he is not.

Yosarian2 (4): Empking, MrZepher, Magister Ludi, mastin2
Ethos (4): kanyeknowsbest, Untrod Tripod, Hiraki, SpyreX

And SpyreX is back off again, for some reason.

This is the last Mask votecount; after this, it becomes Saporo. Mask's first vote was Yosarian2. Where Mask parked the vote until

MrZepher (2): kunkstar7, Lady Lambdadelta

Here. If Mask was against bussing, this strongly implies Zepher is town.

Not voting: Chair, Lady Lambdadelta

Saporo unvoted here.

Hiraki (2): dramonic, Empking
Not voting: Chair, Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX

Note that this is the first votecount with Empking (1-7 were Quillford). He immediately changes from the Yosarian2 mislynch-wagon to a smaller, safer Hiraki mislynch-not-really-wagon. Additionally, note how SpyreX unvotes at the same time. This might've sparked Sapo's next course of action...

Empking (5): Îdher, Ethos, kunkstar7, Lady Lambdadelta, Yosarian2
Chair (1): SpyreX

...Where Saporo busses. SpyreX also goes for a safe Chair vote. This implies to me that he was worried. Why not go for a larger wagon?

MrZepher, Magister Ludi, Untrod Tripod
Hiraki (2): dramonic, Empking
Empking (5): Îdher, Ethos, kunkstar7, Lady Lambdadelta, Yosarian2
Untrod Tripod (2): Chair, mastin2

He avoids the wagon Zepher's slot is on. He avoids joining Empking (in stark contrast to his earlier attitude), and obviously doesn't want to join the Empking wagon.

Note, that this is where Zepher comes in.

MrZepher, Magister Ludi, Untrod Tripod, Empking
Îdher (1): Oversoul
Empking (3): kunkstar7, Lady Lambdadelta, Yosarian2
Chair (1): SpyreX
Untrod Tripod (5): Chair, mastin2, T-Bone, Ethos, Hiraki

Note that--like last votecount--both SpyreX and Oversoul are on relatively safe wagons. Idher and Chair both have zero support. This is in contrast with Yosarian2 and UT. Yosarian2 had Empking on it. It also had Zepher on it as well.

I quite frankly can't make sense of their actions here.

Wait, just thought of something. The Empking wagon died because of Empking's vig claim. Once Empking claimed vig, all the scum (including sapo) would presumably know that Empking was going to be lynched Day Two. That might mean they showed caution towards joining him.

You'd think this'd make Zepher more town, but note what happens to Zepher's vote the first time he's listed on the votecount instead of Swag:

Yosarian2 (2): Untrod Tripod, Empking
Îdher (1): Oversoul
Empking (1): Lady Lambdadelta
Chair (2): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest
Untrod Tripod (9): Chair, mastin2, T-Bone, Ethos, Hiraki, Magister Ludi, MrZepher, Yosarian2, kunkstar7

He got off, and in fact, went the opposite way. In other words, null.

Empking (8): SpyreX, Magister Ludi, T-Bone, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2, Oversoul, Hiraki, Lady Lambdadelta
kanyeknowsbest (1): mastin2
Hiraki (1): Empking

Not voting: Lady Lambdadelta, MrZepher, dramonic, Îdher, Chair, kunkstar7

Not sure how accurate this is. So... *pulls up Kayne's*

Empking (8): SpyreX, Magister Ludi, T-Bone, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2, Oversoul, Lady Lambdadelta, Empking

The only difference between the two is that the official has Hiraki on and Empking off (Sapo as the hammer), whereas Kayne's has Empking as the hammer with Hiraki off.

Either way, it suggests Sapo is fond of bussing. And either way, I'm pretty positive that all the scum intended to be on the wagon--regardless of whether Empking's vote was a hammer vote or whether he was hammered by LLD, he posted a hammer vote on himself, meaning he INTENDED to be hammered by himself. In other words, the results don't change--either way, there's three scum on the wagon and one unknown--Oversoul. Again, it comes down to whether I believe Yosarian2 or Empking had all the scum on them.

And, quite frankly, Empking's the one which looks slightly more likely. But I do need to investigate the circumstances of both incidents.

kanyeknowsbest (3): mastin2, Chair, Lady Lambdadelta

And here, Sapo does NOT bus.

kanyeknowsbest (2): Chair, Lady Lambdadelta
MrZepher (2): Yosarian2, Magister Ludi

Sapo passes on the chance to go after Zepher and make it a larger wagon, despite Kayne being smaller. It kinda makes me wonder why.

kanyeknowsbest (1): LLD
Lady Lambdadelta (4): kunkstar7, Îdher, MrZepher, Chair

Not voting: Oversoul

And this is the first place were LLD is playing. Keeps the stale Kayne vote.

Chair (6): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest, mastin2, Yosarian2, kunkstar7, LLD

LLD hammers Chair. She knew SpyreX was scum, and that Chair wasn't. But I'm not sure I can make anything else about it. It's difficult to tell what her stance in the game is.

kanyeknowsbest (1): Oversoul
Oversoul (1): LLD

This is why it's important to know whether LLD herself would bus. Because this Oversoul vote is vital.

It is possible she knew she was going down, and was going to try and make Oversoul look better. I'll need to look into this further.

Oversoul (1): LLD
Magister Ludi (3): Îdher, Oversoul, mastin2

Oversoul joins the Ludi wagon. I'll need to look into the circumstances of this and see if Oversoul's switch was justified.

mastin2 (1): MrZepher

mastin2 (1): Magister Ludi
Not voting: kanyeknowsbest, MrZepher

I'll have to see why Zepher voted/unvoted me.

Magister Ludi (3): Îdher, mastin2, LLD
LLD (1): kunkstar7
MrZepher (2): Magister Ludi, SpyreX

LLD finally switches from her (stale) Oversoul vote to an active bandwagon on Ludi (now-confirmed-town). SpyreX switches from LLD (someone he had no idea was scum, presumably) to Zepher, despite their wagons being of equal size. This seems like it warrants further investigation--why the switch?

Magister Ludi (3): mastin2, LLD
LLD (5): kunkstar7, Îdher, kanyeknowsbest, SpyreX, Magister Ludi

And SpyreX switches back. It makes you wonder why he ever got off in the first place. I mean, he didn't KNOW that LLD was a Traitor. Also, LLD keeps her vote on Ludi. This is beginning to look more like LLD was against bussing... :/

...I'm beginning to get a feeling. That early-game has a lot of evidence against Oversoul, and later-game has reversed the trend to be lots of evidence against Zepher. >_<

Traditionally, earlier evidence is more reliable, since the scum haven't truly gotten a feel for the game, yet. But I'm not sure.

Magister Ludi (3): mastin2, MrZepher, Oversoul
MrZepher (1) Magister Ludi

Not voting: Kanyeknowsbest

If memory serves, the original wagon was me, Zepher, and Kayne. But this is the official wagon. I didn't realize it at the time I created the theory, but this might've been what made me think that "Kayne/Oversoul is going to die, and the other is scum"--because they were the ones off of the official Ludi wagon and the First Ludi Wagon (respectively).

Since official tends to trump unofficial, this might explain why Kayne died--because he officially wasn't part of the Ludi mislynch. But I find that--while this does seem plausible--it can't be the ONLY reason Kayne was killed. I need to look into him further. If he was killed for fear of being obv-town, if he was killed for thinking I was town, if he was killed for being analytical, or if he was killed because of his suspect(s).


Yeah. Definitely need more than VCA this game. I need to read the circumstances of this VCA. Out-of-context just isn't working, right now. (Speaking of which:

Yosarian2 (8): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, SpyreX, Empking, MrZepher
Untrod Tripod (9): mastin2, MrZepher,
Empking (8): SpyreX, Oversoul, Lady Lambdadelta, Empking

Once again, I have to point out how either Empking had all-scum and UT had no scum, or Yosarian2 had all scum and UT had one scum.

This goes into a little bit of a farfetched outlandish view [Mastin Logic], but because both myself and Zepher are on the Yosarian2 and UT wagons, whereas Oversoul isn't, it makes Oversoul stand out in the crowd and kinda more likely to be scum.

Think about it:

Yosarian2 (7): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, SpyreX, Empking, MrZepher
Îdher (1): Oversoul

Oversoul is just hanging there, out of place...)

So, yeah. I'd say my percentage remains about the same. 53-47, Oversoul-Zepher.

[xRECKONERx]

After I announce a replacement, they show up on the very next vote count.

[MrZepher]

When the deadline approaches 2 days, I'm voting Oversoul if we haven't reached a better conclusion.
Just throwing that out there now.

I read Mastin's post, and I'm going to try to make what I can of it when I have time.

[mastin2]

So, I have two days to re-read the thread and see how much I can get from it, since deadline is in a little over four days.

Easy enough.

Time consuming (people in my other games are gonna hate me for this ), but quite possible. *cracks wrists*

[kunkstar7]

Zepher, vote Oversoul.

[mastin2]

/confirm!

It was swag's enthusiasm when confirming which made me think he was town. Everyone previously before him did boring "/confirm"; he added an exclamation mark.

This is re-inforced by SpyreX also doing a boring /confirm. Mask slightly dilutes this theory by having flipped scum.

Hey, Swag.

You've been browsing this forum for a while now. How's it going?

-Ether

This is a point against Swag, though.

/confirm

Sorry for the late reply, guys.

Also a safe confirm, with an (unnecessary?) apology for coming in late. This is actually quite a strong point against Oversoul, when you think about it--need to justify being late.

/confirm

Late to the party as usual.

However Quill doing the exact same thing suggests the opposite, that Quillford and Oversoul are not scum, because why would he move an identical move to his scumbuddy, the post below his scumbuddy?

:C Don't make fun.

Kinda gives me a scum tone, though I don't know why.

w00t! I started that Idher wagon.

One of Oversoul's main town-tells; why take credit for a wagon he'd inevitably get flak for if it went through?

Must get rid of all the hydras.

This, however, lessens that, in that it seems like an excuse more than anything else.

I think Oversoul is town too but how do you discern Swag is town?

This.

This has to be one of the most important posts in the entire game. But I'm too tired to tell whether it's Quillford confirming Oversoul as town and weakly bussing Swag/Zepher, or whether it's Quillford trying to make Oversoul look town while casting suspicion on Swag/Zepher.

[Oversoul]

/confirm!

It was swag's enthusiasm when confirming which made me think he was town. Everyone previously before him did boring "/confirm"; he added an exclamation mark.

This is re-inforced by SpyreX also doing a boring /confirm. Mask slightly dilutes this theory by having flipped scum.

Hey, Swag.

You've been browsing this forum for a while now. How's it going?

-Ether

This is a point against Swag, though.

/confirm

Sorry for the late reply, guys.

Also a safe confirm, with an (unnecessary?) apology for coming in late. This is actually quite a strong point against Oversoul, when you think about it--need to justify being late.

/confirm

Late to the party as usual.

However Quill doing the exact same thing suggests the opposite, that Quillford and Oversoul are not scum, because why would he move an identical move to his scumbuddy, the post below his scumbuddy?

:C Don't make fun.

Kinda gives me a scum tone, though I don't know why.

w00t! I started that Idher wagon.

One of Oversoul's main town-tells; why take credit for a wagon he'd inevitably get flak for if it went through?

Must get rid of all the hydras.

This, however, lessens that, in that it seems like an excuse more than anything else.

I think Oversoul is town too but how do you discern Swag is town?

This.

This has to be one of the most important posts in the entire game. But I'm too tired to tell whether it's Quillford confirming Oversoul as town and weakly bussing Swag/Zepher, or whether it's Quillford trying to make Oversoul look town while casting suspicion on Swag/Zepher.

Mastin, I am going to have to disagree with a few things. First, punctuation does not determine whether or not someone is scum and I am quite honestly surprised that /confirm! Would be a town tell for you.

I didn't give a justification for being late, I simply said I was sorry for being late. As my first game of mafia, I wanted it to be special.

Also, why are you counting Empking to be on his own wagon? I don't understand how that is bad or conducive to your theory about all scum being on one wagon.


Also, I agree with your last point. Quilford's post looks like a weak attempt at budding or perhaps trying to put pressure on Swag so that he would actually be active. Did Swag ever answer for his lurkiness? Also, given the role that is left is Bookie it would make sense for the player to want to blend in with the crowd and avoid suspicion of himself seeing as Bookie is a pretty powerful role.

Kunk, do you have any other opinions or do you just want me lynched?

[kunkstar7]

I have a reason for asking that of Zepher. It would be appreciated if he complied asap.

[MrZepher]

Sorry.

That's a big fancy gambit you've thrown down there Kunk.
I assume that you've concluded that it's either me or Oversoul then?

Anyways, it doesn't look like there's much time left till deadline, and I said I would if no other appropriate options came up.
I know my role pm, Kunk is confirmed, and Mastin is about as close to confirmed as he's going to get for me.

Vote: Oversoul

[mastin2]

/nothammering.

[Oversoul]

Then it is Zepher. Good game scum.

[mastin2]

Crud.

Mod: You'll need to force-replace me

.

I think I just learned who the remaining scum is, in a way I'm not supposed to.

[xRECKONERx]

Topic locked while I sort this out. I'm going to kill somebody.

[xRECKONERx]

False alarm. Play continues. Deadline remains unchanged.

[xRECKONERx]

I'm going to install a one-week deadline to make sure this doesn't drag on for too long.

Deadline is in (expired on 2011-08-19 11:30:00).

[Oversoul]

Mastin's little schtick/ false alarm confirms Zepher as scum.

I am voting Zepher when I get to my computer. Any objections speak up now. I'll be back home in an hour or two.

[mastin2]

*sigh*

One and a half days left, I've gone from being the scummiest player alive to confirmed town, if I hammer wrong then my reputation's ruined forever, I'm more unsure of myself than I've ever been before, Kunk is not being nearly as helpful as I was hoping he'd be, I'm essentially on my own, with no way out of this situation, I'm being distracted constantly...

...What could

possibly

go wrong?

[Oversoul]

*sigh*

One and a half days left, I've gone from being the scummiest player alive to confirmed town, if I hammer wrong then my reputation's ruined forever, I'm more unsure of myself than I've ever been before, Kunk is not being nearly as helpful as I was hoping he'd be, I'm essentially on my own, with no way out of this situation, I'm being distracted constantly...

...What could

possibly

go wrong?

Mastin, this is how it is gonna work. YOU win.

I am voting Zepher because after your post that caused Reck to get all flustered, the way other scum members treated you, your horrible play getting so many people killed (being the bookie that would be the most retarded thing to do) I am 95% sure that you are town.

If you are town and you vote Zepher with me, YOU will win.
If you are scum and you vote Zepher with me, YOU will win. Either way, YOU will win Mastin.


On the off chance that you ARE scum, well, good game. If your last few posts were a gambit, then fuck you to both you AND Reck. One to you because that would be some sneaky ass way to win as mafia, and one to Reck for allowing your slot to live.

Zepher has been pretty lurky, Spyrex's list, LLD's list, and the Yos wagon all point to Zepher being the final scum.

Mastin, you already had the chance to hammer ME. If you were scum, you would have taken that chance. You didn't. You are not scum because of that (if you are, that is annoying because the game could have ended a while ago and you would just be prolonging this game for the lulz, which is a dick move).

Zepher, your major fault was trying to convince Mastin of my scumminess. Had you gone for Mastin, who I was intially going to vote for Ludi's death, you probably would have won.

VOTE: MrZepher

Zepher IS the last scum.

[MrZepher]

Then it is Zepher. Good game scum.

WTF is that shit?
You're not going to vote for yourself.

The problem with Kunk's gambit is that it means Either you or me are scum.
The fact that you posted this in itself, without admitting to that possibility is terribad to the max.

Mastin's little schtick/ false alarm confirms Zepher as scum.

I am voting Zepher when I get to my computer. Any objections speak up now. I'll be back home in an hour or two.

I don't understand how that at all led to me being the last scum.
We've already seen how Reck has messed up things as remotely important as role flips (like flipping a rolecop when there isn't even on in the setup, at this point there's only the bookie, because if there was ALSO a rolecop the game would have been over after yesterday's flip.)

Oversoul's pointing out that I should have gone after Mastin also seems pretty bad.
His saying Mastin will win no matter what is also bad, intentionally presenting a wincon for scum just to spite me is in no way town.

Ugh. This game.

[kunkstar7]

Good, glad to be right about Mastin. Wish you guys had gotten that out of the way sooner.

Now, to finish this out, seeing as we have a crossvote. (Mastin, you are overthinking this.)

Then it is Zepher. Good game scum.

Not understanding this from Oversoul. Why congratulate scum if you aren't getting hammered?

Honestly, my conclusions of this game go against what you are getting Mastin. LLD didn't seem like a busser and actively voted town people, so not distancing or bussing. This would put Oversoul as town and Zepher as scum, but you seem to have it backwards (hence why I don't seem as helpful, besides inactivity). That said, Oversoul's post about Mastin winning either way doesn't read right, reading as an underhand way of getting Mastin's approval for a Zephervote. I don't have the vote so its up to you Mastin, but I still say you are overthinking this and if your read is even as slight 51/49, hammer the 51.

Review of Empking and Quilford make Oversoul the better option here. Reviewed them in light of your quoting of the swagVoversould comment from Quilford.

[mastin2]

1 day, three hours.

Since it's 4:45 AM, add three hours = 7 AM tomorrow deadline.

I'm going to cut it as close as I can, because I need to make things as best of a call as possible.

Since Kunk...well, your last post looked like you were saying that you couldn't decide, either. (But it looks like you're slightly leaning towards Oversoul, correct?)

(It might just be easier to determine the game by a coin flip. >_<)

[Oversoul]

I am going to make a wall analyzing all, yes, all of Zepher's posts.

Mastin, a coin flip is at this point very bad. Why leave it up to a 50% chance you will land on Zepher and win when you have. 100% chance if you vote Zepher anyway?

The fact that Zepher only addressed 2 points out of my most recent posts proves he has nothing to defend himself. Instead, he is trying to plant doubt into your mind by casting a shadow of suspicion over me.

My plea to Mastin was not a ploy, and Reck getting the roles mixed up is a lot different from this, Zepher. That was Reck's fault. He false alarm was Mastin's fault (I am assuming).

Either way, it helped

me

find the last scum as Mastin would have no reason to say what he said as scum.

Zepher, how did I propose a wincon for scum? Mastin is town and I only addressed Mastin in that post. Are you saying you think Mastin is scum now? and that part of your post doesn't make sense. Also, you have a habit of misrepping things.

It was never just you or me. It was always you, Mastin, or I. For me personally, it was always you or Mastin. Now, it is just you. You are not defending yourself or looking for scum because there are no more scum to bus or look for. It is just you left on the scum team.

I am doing this on my phone, but I will make the huge Zepher wall post when I get back to my computer.